When I look at a hire, I always like to see how what the school did before the person was hired, while the person was there, and what the school did after the person left to gauge their impact.
Memphis:
Long's first OC job was at Memphis. He was Mike Norvell's first OC when Norvell took the Memphis job. Norvell is known as a good offensive mind, and it looks like he was more the architect of the offense than Chip Long was:
Memphis OFEI:
Pre Norvell/Long:
2014: 72
2015: 27
With Long:
2016: 30
After Long:
2017: 17
2018: 40
2019: 8
IMO, Long at Memphis wasn't much of a factor as much as having Norvell the HC. Norvell, before his time at FSU, was known as a good QB coach, and a good offensive mind. Memphis had good success with Long on the offensive side (and even before Long and Norvell), but Memphis's offensive was VERY good (2017) to elite (2019) after Long left.
Notre Dame:
Long jumped to Notre to coach with another coach known for his offensive acumen, Brian Kelly. From 2017-2019 Long was the OC.
Notre Dame OFEI:
Before Long (with Kelly):
2013: 35
2014: 22
2015: 7
2016: 37
With Long:
2017: 12
2018: 28
2019: 25
After Long:
2020: 17
2021: 26
I think it's fair to attribute Notre Dame's modest improvement on offense to Long's hiring. I don't know the exact details that led to Long being let go after 2019, but Long did seem to have an attributable impact on ND's offense during his time there. Kelly did have good offenses before Long, and a year with elite results (2015) with respect to the time frame I looked back. Let's be honest, if GT has a similar OFEI that ND had during Long's time as their OC, we would be ecstatic.
Tulane:
This is where it gets interesting for me. I've been a huge Willie Fritz fan since his GA Southern days. His offenses were always a joy to watch, and he could put it on teams that had a big talent advantage. Fritz is just a really good coach. Fritz seemed to change his offense the last few years for some reason and went away from an option based spread, to a traditional vertical passing spread. That transition happened about two years prior to Long being hired at Tulane. Fritz was hired at Tulane in 2016:
Tulane OFEI:
Before Long (with Fritz)
2016: 104
2017: 71
2018: 101
2019: 38
2020: 60
With Long
2021: 75
IMO, judging Long with one year to work with players is tough. Long finished 2021 with an OFEI of 75...one spot better than what we did this year (76). However, the pattern I would personally like to see is if his offense improved as the year went on. Remember that saying about CPJ's offense? The offense didn't really get going until the leaves started changing colors. Well, you would hope an OC with time to work with new players improves as you have more practices and games with them. This is what worries me about long. In the last seven games, his offenses scored: 22 (Houston), 26 (SMU), 12 (Cincy), 10 (UCF), 13 (Tulsa), 45 (Win - USF), 28 (Memphis).
Maybe there are extenuating circumstance (injuries, Covid, etc) where the offense couldn't fire on all cylinders. I didn't check because I didn't want to waste anymore time.
I think Long is a clear upgrade over Patenaude, but is the upgrade big enough to make GT a competitor in the Coastal in 2022? Next year every single GT coach is coaching for their jobs. Can Long get his system in quick enough, and can he coach the QBs up fast enough to make his offense go?
I guess we'll find out. Personally, I wanted a coach that has an option package for his offense (see: Friedgen, Chip Kelly, Chadwell) to go with a modern spread vertical passing game. Maybe we'll get that with Long given Sims's athletic abilities. There is good offensive talent on our roster, and the Coastal isn't a formidable division. Defense will have to make a huge improvement, but the offense probably sets up well to improve the most. Either way, CGC better hope Long is the OC we've been missing.