GT (-5) vs. VT

[RonJohn]

I'm Suprised they have us as the favorite. I guess they figure if they keep picking us they will eventually get it right.

The casinos don't care who wins games. The casinos keep the money even on each side, then they keep 5%. If too many people put money on one side, then the casino would actually be gambling. They don't want to do that. They want other people to gamble and skim the vig off of the top.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The casinos don't care who wins games. The casinos keep the money even on each side, then they keep 5%. If too many people put money on one side, then the casino would actually be gambling. They don't want to do that. They want other people to gamble and skim the vig off of the top.

Very true, but over the years the latest line is the best predictor of the spread than any service out there. Some years one of the services has a hot hand and does better than the line, but not consistently. http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=15

 

[RonJohn]

Very true, but over the years the latest line is the best predictor of the spread than any service out there. Some years one of the services has a hot hand and does better than the line, but not consistently. http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=15

I would have to see how they come up with those numbers. The line is about 80% correct in picking the winner, but how to they get a percentage of the line against the spread?

Most of those services are about 50% against the spread, which would suggest that the spread is accurate. However, many people who bet use many of those services. The line/those services are recursive. As people use the spreads in the services to place bets, the lines change to even the money out. So the final line matches up with what the services predicted.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I would have to see how they come up with those numbers. The line is about 80% correct in picking the winner, but how to they get a percentage of the line against the spread?

Most of those services are about 50% against the spread, which would suggest that the spread is accurate. However, many people who bet use many of those services. The line/those services are recursive. As people use the spreads in the services to place bets, the lines change to even the money out. So the final line matches up with what the services predicted.

Just for fun, sort the results on "Against Spread". It seems that the mid-week line is the spread. And very interestingly, the opening spread and updated spread (just before game I would guess) seem to be generally better than the mid-week spread. There may be some leverage (several %) there if you want to place 1000 bets a season with good money management.

So to answer the question, I think they get percentage against the (mid-week) line for every game by comparing for every game the mid-week line versus each services prediction. If the (mid-week) line predicts GT will win by 10 and a service predicts we will win by 7, then the service is in effect saying we will lose against the line. If GT loses or wins by 7 or less, the service is right. If GT wins by more than 10 the line gets the win. What happens between a 7 and 10 point win isn't clear to me. Could be split down the middle or a push ....... Just my guess ..... but a good question that I haven't thought about (that I remember ).

 

[GTRX7]

The casinos don't care who wins games. The casinos keep the money even on each side, then they keep 5%. If too many people put money on one side, then the casino would actually be gambling. They don't want to do that. They want other people to gamble and skim the vig off of the top.

Okay, I get that, but doesn't that sort of miss the point of the thread? If I understand what you are saying, your point is that Vegas wants even money on each side of the line. Thus, they will set the line where they think it will actually be, unless they have some reason to believe that betters have a disproportionate perception of the strengths of the teams that does not match up with reality. For example, fans of teams like ND football or UK basketball may not be rational and may over-bet on their teams doing better than they should. Thus, Vegas has to move the line more in favor of those teams to even out betting on each side.

In this case, however, Vegas has set the line with Georgia Tech favored! Does anyone really believe that the public is so bullish on how great Georgia Tech football is right now that Vegas had to move the line to favor Georgia Tech just to even out the money to account for all those folks expected to irrationally bet on Georgia Tech? Heck, I am a HUGE Georgia Tech fan and I can't say I am optimistic about this game at all.

I guess that it is possible they think VT fans are irrationally negative about their team, but they won their last game and have dominated the series with us. If I had to guess, I bet VT fans in general are feeling much better about their team in this game than we are about ours.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Okay, I get that, but doesn't that sort of miss the point of the thread? If I understand what you are saying, your point is that Vegas wants even money on each side of the line. Thus, they will set the line where they think it will actually be, unless they have some reason to believe that betters have a disproportionate perception of the strengths of the teams that does not match up with reality. For example, fans of teams like ND football or UK basketball may not be rational and may over-bet on their teams doing better than they should. Thus, Vegas has to move the line more in favor of those teams to even out betting on each side.

In this case, however, Vegas has set the line with Georgia Tech favored! Does anyone really believe that the public is so bullish on how great Georgia Tech football is right now that Vegas had to move the line to favor Georgia Tech just to even out the money to account for all those folks expected to irrationally bet on Georgia Tech? Heck, I am a HUGE Georgia Tech fan and I can't say I am optimistic about this game at all.

I guess that it is possible they think VT fans are irrationally negative about their team, but they won their last game and have dominated the series with us. If I had to guess, I bet VT fans in general are feeling much better about their team in this game than we are about ours.

Just kidding here somewhat, but 99+% of the betting population probably doesn't care about our game. So Vegas and all the services have algorithms they like to use to predict the score. That sets the opening line and then money / practice injuries / weather changes move the line.

FWIW, it looks like the opening line and updated line for our game haven't changed at 3.5 points GT favored. http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/predncaa.html

And yes VT feels much better about their team since they know it's the last season for Beamer. (tic somewhat - this is a fat pitch for someone else to hit)

 

[GTRX7]

Just kidding here somewhat, but 99+% of the betting population probably doesn't care about our game. So Vegas and all the services have algorithms they like to use to predict the score. That sets the opening line and then money / practice injuries / weather changes move the line.

FWIW, it looks like the opening line and updated line for our game haven't changed at 3.5 points GT favored. http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/predncaa.html

And yes VT feels much better about their team since they know it's the last season for Beamer. (tic somewhat - this is a fat pitch for someone else to hit)

Exactly. So, in this case, I think it is fair to say that the line set by Vegas is probably a true indication of their best guess of what the actual score will be. I certainly hope they are right.

 

[RonJohn]

So Vegas and all the services have algorithms they like to use to predict the score. That sets the opening line and then money / practice injuries / weather changes move the line.

Exactly. So, in this case, I think it is fair to say that the line set by Vegas is probably a true indication of their best guess of what the actual score will be. I certainly hope they are right.

The point I have been trying to make is that the Vegas line has absolutely nothing to do with football. They have absolutely no interest in better team, injuries, coaching situation, etc. The ONLY thing they care about is having even money on both sides of the bet. They set the line in an attempt to have even betting. They then adjust the line to move more money to one side or the other.

IF the money is even, they don't care about anything else.

 

[GTRX7]

The point I have been trying to make is that the Vegas line has absolutely nothing to do with football. They have absolutely no interest in better team, injuries, coaching situation, etc. The ONLY thing they care about is having even money on both sides of the bet. They set the line in an attempt to have even betting. They then adjust the line to move more money to one side or the other.

IF the money is even, they don't care about anything else.

Again, I get that the goal is to have even money on both sides of the line. I think you are missing my point though. As you say, the point of the line is to predict how the public will bet, with the goal to have even money on both sides. Undeniably, however, things like the better team, injuries, coaching situation, etc. have an incredibly strong influence on how the public will bet, and as such are absolutely taken into account by Vegas. Now, as I acknowledged above, for some games, there will be things that have "nothing to do with football" that may also be expected to influence the public's betting for a particular game. For example, expected over-betting by fans of one team, general misperception of strength or weakness of one or both teams, some feel-good story involving one team, etc. For just a standard game, however, where there is not a lot of betting and not a lot of story lines, the Vegas line should be expected to represent substantially the same thing as what they expect to happen on the field, as that is how the betting public should be assumed to be making their decision.

In this case, if there was something that would be expected to influence the line in this particular game, it would most likely be that the betting public is overly pessimistic about Georgia Tech's chances. Thus, if Vegas is going to move the line for this game based on "nothing to do with football," it should be expected to swing the line further TOWARDS Virginia Tech in an attempt to get pessimistic Georgia Tech fans to even out the betting. As such, it is reasonable to assume that Vegas does truly believe Georgia Tech has the best chance to win the game and, if anything, based on your logic, may even think Georgia Tech is a bigger favorite than the line would indicate, but has reduced the line in order to even out the betting.

Is there any of that you disagree with?

 

[RonJohn]

Is there any of that you disagree with?

I do disagree.

When the line moves, it is not because anyone at the casino believes something changed that indicates one team will win. It is solely because the betting is not even. You think that the public would be overly pessimistic about GT's chances. However, if you look at the standings, VT is one game ahead with a weaker schedule to this point. VT's coach has decided to retire at the end of the year. Not much reason for the general public to be overly optimistic or pessimistic about either teams chances. The line did move toward VT by 0.5 this evening at a few of the casinos. That tells me that today, more money was being placed on GT than VT.

It is not reasonable to assume that Vegas believes anything about the football game. They don't have super smart people or secret computer algorithms.(They do have smart people, and they do use computer algorithms, just not to predict actual winners of games.) They set the lines based on statistical data from a long history of sports betting. They then adjust the lines to make sure the money is even. A few years ago, Florida was playing against a weak team. The line was set extremely high, something like 65 points. The line crept up and was over 70. The casinos then stopped taking bets on that game. The reason they stopped taking bets is that they could not get people to bet on the weak team no matter how high the line was. At -110, the money has to be within 4.5%, or the casinos risk losing money. The casinos are not built on risking money. They DO NOT want to bet money. They are happy making 4.5% on the money that other people gamble. 4.5% does not appear to be a lot, but it is for one weekend. If they do that every weekend(football, basketball, hockey, baseball.....), that comes out to 234% for the year on money that they are just transferring from one group of people to another. It is an extremely profitable and easy business IF you keep within the statistical analysis. If they start letting anything other than statistical analysis of the money influence the odds, then they risk not making their 234% return for the year.

 

[FatPat]

Guys - Nerd Down!!! Let's play some football! See you all tomm. On the alley, I will be the big one drinking orange sorority beer.

 

[GTRX7]

I do disagree.

When the line moves, it is not because anyone at the casino believes something changed that indicates one team will win. It is solely because the betting is not even. You think that the public would be overly pessimistic about GT's chances. However, if you look at the standings, VT is one game ahead with a weaker schedule to this point. VT's coach has decided to retire at the end of the year. Not much reason for the general public to be overly optimistic or pessimistic about either teams chances. The line did move toward VT by 0.5 this evening at a few of the casinos. That tells me that today, more money was being placed on GT than VT.

It is not reasonable to assume that Vegas believes anything about the football game. They don't have super smart people or secret computer algorithms.(They do have smart people, and they do use computer algorithms, just not to predict actual winners of games.) They set the lines based on statistical data from a long history of sports betting. They then adjust the lines to make sure the money is even. A few years ago, Florida was playing against a weak team. The line was set extremely high, something like 65 points. The line crept up and was over 70. The casinos then stopped taking bets on that game. The reason they stopped taking bets is that they could not get people to bet on the weak team no matter how high the line was. At -110, the money has to be within 4.5%, or the casinos risk losing money. The casinos are not built on risking money. They DO NOT want to bet money. They are happy making 4.5% on the money that other people gamble. 4.5% does not appear to be a lot, but it is for one weekend. If they do that every weekend(football, basketball, hockey, baseball.....), that comes out to 234% for the year on money that they are just transferring from one group of people to another. It is an extremely profitable and easy business IF you keep within the statistical analysis. If they start letting anything other than statistical analysis of the money influence the odds, then they risk not making their 234% return for the year.

I would say a few things. First, my points above were really about the opening line. I agree, once the line it set, changes to the line all about where the betting is actually occurring. That is because they then have real betting data and don't need to make assumptions anymore. However, for the opening line, Vegas has to make assumptions as to how the public will bet. What is expected to actually take place on the field is the overwhelming majority as to what goes into this calculation for 95+% of games without some strange story line.

And I think you have your conclusion from the line move backwards, right? The fact that the line moved towards VT means that not enough people were betting on GT. It means that GT was set as too high a favorite. In other words, the betting public did not believe that GT could win by 3.5 and Vegas thus had to move the line down to 3 to try to even out the betting and get more betting on GT. I think that is right, correct?

 

[GTRX7]

Guys - Nerd Down!!! Let's play some football! See you all tomm. On the alley, I will be the big one drinking orange sorority beer.

Maybe I am getting old. Well, probably. What is "orange sorority beer?"

 

[RonJohn]

I would say a few things. First, my points above were really about the opening line. I agree, once the line it set, changes to the line all about where the betting is actually occurring. That is because they then have real betting data and don't need to make assumptions anymore. However, for the opening line, Vegas has to make assumptions as to how the public will bet. What is expected to actually take place on the field is the overwhelming majority as to what goes into this calculation for 95+% of games without some strange story line.

And I think you have your conclusion from the line move backwards, right? The fact that the line moved towards VT means that not enough people were betting on GT. It means that GT was set as too high a favorite. In other words, the betting public did not believe that GT could win by 3.5 and Vegas thus had to move the line down to 3 to try to even out the betting and get more betting on GT. I think that is right, correct?

You are right about the line moving towards VT is an attempt to get more people to bet on GT.

Regarding the opening line, I have read articles about how most of them do it. They rank the teams and assign scores to the teams, similar to Sagarin ratings. They get the starting point from the difference in the team's scores. They then add home/away factors. They then get together and discuss the outputs and modify the line bases based on popular sentiment and their personal feelings. They even stated that for some teams, such as Alabama, they add a few points no matter what the circumstances around the game are because some people will bet on Alabama regardless of the situation. They usually do a pretty good job of predicting how people will bet, and the line normally doesn't take wild jumps. Look at the Vegasinsider website and go to last weeks scores. There is only one game in which the result was a cover 0. Most of the games are cover 7 or greater. The Navy game was a cover 35.5 game. The line is not usually very accurate. It only picks the winner about 80% of the time, and only predicts the actual difference in score in a very small percentage of games. If the casinos cared that the lines were accurate, no one working on sports odds currently would still be employed.

My main peeve about lines is that there are people who buy into the fantasy of "experts" who accurately predict every game. Those people believe that if they win a bet against the line, that they then "take" money away from the casino. The truth is that the casino is much more similar to a credit card purchasing system that solely transfers money from one person to another and charges a fee to do it. I have no problem with people gambling on sports, or with casinos handling the bets. I just wish that more people understood the actual mechanics behind the system and didn't have fantasies about how it actually works.

 

[GTRX7]

You are right about the line moving towards VT is an attempt to get more people to bet on GT.

Regarding the opening line, I have read articles about how most of them do it. They rank the teams and assign scores to the teams, similar to Sagarin ratings. They get the starting point from the difference in the team's scores. They then add home/away factors. They then get together and discuss the outputs and modify the line bases based on popular sentiment and their personal feelings. They even stated that for some teams, such as Alabama, they add a few points no matter what the circumstances around the game are because some people will bet on Alabama regardless of the situation. They usually do a pretty good job of predicting how people will bet, and the line normally doesn't take wild jumps. Look at the Vegasinsider website and go to last weeks scores. There is only one game in which the result was a cover 0. Most of the games are cover 7 or greater. The Navy game was a cover 35.5 game. The line is not usually very accurate. It only picks the winner about 80% of the time, and only predicts the actual difference in score in a very small percentage of games. If the casinos cared that the lines were accurate, no one working on sports odds currently would still be employed.

My main peeve about lines is that there are people who buy into the fantasy of "experts" who accurately predict every game. Those people believe that if they win a bet against the line, that they then "take" money away from the casino. The truth is that the casino is much more similar to a credit card purchasing system that solely transfers money from one person to another and charges a fee to do it. I have no problem with people gambling on sports, or with casinos handling the bets. I just wish that more people understood the actual mechanics behind the system and didn't have fantasies about how it actually works.

Good post, and I agree with most everything you said. A lot of it sounds like what I posted above : ) The only exception I would take is to your conclusion that "the line is not usually very accurate." I think there is truth that it is not terribly accurate when compared to actual results. Sports are wild and unpredictable. But I think the opening lines are generally extraordinarily accurate at predicting the most likely outcome of a game. That is what most betters place their money on, the most expected outcome of the game. If we all knew the actual outcome before games started, this would all be moot.

That has been my point from the beginning. I think Vegas picking us by around 3 indicates that they truly believe that the most likely outcome of the game is that Georgia Tech wins a close one, not some arbitrary number pulled from the air or disassociated with what they think the most likely result of the game will be. Personally, I wouldn't take Georgia Tech as a 3 point favorite, but I sure hope I am wrong!

 

[alagold]

Seriously? I agree that if we win 2 of 3 he will have worked miracles. I think we will go 0-3 myself, and that will be sad, but it does not really change my view of CPJ. Not without understanding better what has happened to the team this year, which we as outsiders have NO idea about.

MW,
notice I said it would be a huge accomplishment, not that he will
But on your 2nd comment ,on PJ-- I do care what happened this yr for curiosity as an outsider but we made him King for last yr so he needs to take blame for this yr

 

[AE 87]

Based on the Diff PPD vs Pwr 5, VPI is the best team we will face, at #29; georgie is #34, and d'oh U is #50. We are currently #59.

I still believe that we have been underplaying our talent, but at a certain point you have to ask if you are what your performance says you are. I'm hoping that our team comes out tonight pumped up and playing above their heads. I see winning close, 28 - 24 or losing big 34 - 14 as equally possible.