Going for Two: Game Theory

[AE 87]

I agree with this. You know how it's always fun watching opposing coaches going against their own tendencies and going for it on 4th down early in the game? It'd be great to see those same risk-averse coaches realize they have to start going for two. It takes them out of their comfort zone and makes them play OUR game. Advantage GT

Let's see if our D lives up to expectation before we declare advantage. We had a great offense last year but, according to cfbmatrix, while we only went 3 and out 39 times, we only forced 3 and out 39 times. Georgie was 4 of 4 on 4th.

 

[Josh H]

We need a timeout. As for going for two, why go for it when the situation doesn't demand it?? Not to mention the downer that would be for the O line. Going for it on 4th and 2 from the 45 is a lot different, and failure has fewer consequences. Now, if you want to do the HS coach's philosophy of never punting, always going for two, and squib kicking every kickoff, there's a game changer. As I recall he had a great won/lost record though opposing coaches did not like him very much.

So....he played high school football like he was playing Madden online?

 

[Skeptic]

So....he played high school football like he was playing Madden online?

I've never seen the Madden video game, but if that's it, I suppose so.

 

[GT Man]

Saw this article on Reddit the other day

I think our style of power running, coupled with an experienced OL and a bruiser of a BB in Skov, I wonder if CPJ has this rationale in his mind. I guess the flip side of the argument is last year we were really in most of the games, and often-times leading, so we didn't need to be ballsy going for 2 at unconventional times.

What say you? If we show a proficiency of scoring from 2 yards out, should we go for 2 even when we don't really need to?

2 yards in mid-field is different than 2 yards in the red zone. I'd say it could be an interesting approach, but you'd have to take the other team's redzone defense into account.

 

[ilovetheoption]

2 yards in mid-field is different than 2 yards in the red zone. I'd say it could be an interesting approach, but you'd have to take the other team's redzone defense into account.

Bingo. Defense is compressed, much easier to cover. AE's post on 2pt conversion % is all the answer I need.

 

[JorgeJonas]

Bingo. Defense is compressed, much easier to cover. AE's post on 2pt conversion % is all the answer I need.

There's probably more required, though. Without doing the research, it's difficult to know, but it seems plausible that the reason the two point conversion percentage numbers are what they are is because teams were going for them late in games in which they were trailing and trying to reduce the number of possessions required to tie (that seems to be the most common occurrence for an attempt), which would make me at least wonder whether they were unsuccessful because they were being attempted by the lesser team. I dunno...

 

[ilovetheoption]

There's probably more required, though. Without doing the research, it's difficult to know, but it seems plausible that the reason the two point conversion percentage numbers are what they are is because teams were going for them late in games in which they were trailing and trying to reduce the number of possessions required to tie (that seems to be the most common occurrence for an attempt), which would make me at least wonder whether they were unsuccessful because they were being attempted by the lesser team. I dunno...

Hm. Good point.

 

[awbuzz]

Since 1964 the 2 pt conversion is successful less than half as often that 1 pt PAT.

 

[AE 87]

Hm. Good point.

Fwiw, I think I offered the same caveat in my post.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The 2 point play is just part of swag. It says you think you can do what you want ..... and when you do it demoralizes the other team. When you don't it hurts.

There is a school of thought about coaches though .... it is much better to lose "conventionally" than lose on a "controversial" call.

 

[takethepoints]

I believe my handle says it all. NEVER leave points on the field by increasing the risk of conversion.

Never did like applications of game theory to a game as complex as football anyway.

 

[RLR]

So....he played high school football like he was playing Madden online?

Wait a minute...

1. CPJ doesn't punt. moreover, he runs fake punt pass (Bebe). and fake punt run (Note: don't hurdle with punter vs. Miami)
2. He puts the fastest player on the team in at QB
3. He fills the rest of the skill positions with the remaining fastest players on the roster
4. His offense is run around with a super fast QB until he reaches the end zone
5. If he passes, it's a bomb to a big WR running a deep fly route

This isn't a high school offense. It's the Madden Hail Scrambely Offense. For those of you unfamiliar with Madden, you just do steps 1 - 5, pick hail mary on 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th down, then run circles around the slower defensive players until a lane opens up. if you get pressed, you just throw a deep 50/50 ball & hope it's not picked. Very effective and demoralizing offense.

If I may offer CPJ one piece of advice, he should add this classic to his tool bag. Wait for your opponent to select kick return normal before you picked your kick off play. then, select onside kick. your opponent will audible to onside kick formation, or if he can't find that button and panics, burn a timeout. either way, after your opponent has responded, you simply audible to a normal kick formation. Your opponent will do the same. It's a complete waste of time that offers no strategic benefit. but, it does anger your opponent after you just scored, presumably on an 80 yard 4th and 13 scramble. Also, i've always favored the fake-spike-pass play over the QB kneel when burning clock to close the game. If the game's already in the bag, why not indulge in a little irony.

 

[Skeptic]

I'm probably alone in this but here conspiracy gets the blame due bad officials. I am way more upset with that stupid no-call "fumble" return for a touchdown than banging the center up on FGs. I sure would like to know what complaint and film if any Johnson and the AD lodged with governing game officials the next week.

At 3 a.m. today I wound up watching the '14 OT with Georgia. The blocked kick back and forth several times on the VCR . Doggoned if I can see Georgia jumping our center. Drew actually lined up in the gap off his left shoulder and hit him from the side going up to block. There was an opening and he got through it. I just can't see we have a valid complaint.

 

[AE 87]

At 3 a.m. today I wound up watching the '14 OT with Georgia. The blocked kick back and forth several times on the VCR . Doggoned if I can see Georgia jumping our center. Drew actually lined up in the gap off his left shoulder and hit him from the side going up to block. There was an opening and he got through it. I just can't see we have a valid complaint.

You may want to watch it when awake. On the PAT in OT, our snapper ends up on his back 3yds behind los. He was blown up by Drew.