I’d want to think of the units as consistent teams where the defensive staff all plays well together. But, to keep things simple, let’s do Wins Against Replacement (WAR) without a stat like that for the coaches.
Our defense is #39 in DFEI. It was good this year. (Tulane, believe it or not, was #25). Our Offense was #108 in OFEI this year. Yes, we went down two QBs during the year, but the offense ranking stayed below 90 all year, even when Sims and Pyron were around.
So, if you have to pick your battles and use your resources effectively, the place you make changes is on offense.
Before I start on offense, I will say this on defense—you could move Semore to mainly Special Teams and Thacker back to LB and solve the punting issues and the staffing balance. We mainly use 2 LB, so it’s a question of “do you want to do this”? Alternatively, if you really like Semore as an LB coach, Thacker could be DC and Special Teams Coordinator. You might lose someone on defense, but I hope not.
For OC, the $850k for Long is already spent, so financially think of him as a “free” OC since his salary is a sunk cost. Is it worth another $800k or thereabouts to bring in someone else? Probably. Especially if Weinke was doing the signal calling the last two games—that means that Long isn’t really working as your OC. We didn’t put up good numbers in the TE position and our PFF ratings in that position were pretty low (including blocking), so unless Long recruits like mad, he’s not a high WAR OC or TE coach. You also need an OL coach, so if your OC is also the OL coach, that works really well. The more likely scenario is that the OC is also the QB coach, which means Weinke is out of a spot. Eley is working at RB coach right now instead of Daniels. I think that’s more “you’re a coach and we have a hole here, can you fill in?”. My guess is that Eley goes back to being an analyst next season or coaches a different position.
Unless you leave Long as OC or promote Weinke to OC, there is a game of musical chairs that happens on offense. I think that it’s most likely that we hire a new OC and there are wholesale changes on offense. I think both of the two primary OCs that have been mentioned as targets are also QB position coaches, so Weinke would need to move to a different spot, or become an analyst, and that’s the minimum change. Godsey could coach TE, but I don’t think he’ll be coming here. It’s more likely that there’s a completely new offensive coaching staff next season, or maybe one or two return, if you have a new OC.
The other option to me is Weinke as OC and filling the TE and OL slots. That’s two coaching positions—Long and the OL coach. You could do that with two OL coaches where one did GCG and the other did T+TE. Or the TEs could get lumped in with the WRs or the RBs, or have their own coach.
If you want to bring in Pruitt or Charles Kelly as DC, they both coach secondary, which means that Tillman would be gone and Thacker would be gone. You wouldn’t really improve your secondary that much. I don’t know why you would want to replace Turner.
So, my guesses from most likely to least likely
- New OC and significant coaching changes on offense.
- Weinke becomes OC and we hire OL and TE coaches (the continuity option)
- Godsey comes in as OC and TE coach, we keep Weinke, and there are a 1-2 additional changes in the offensive staff
- Long stays, hire OL coach. (the other continuity option)
On defense, my guesses are (1 most likely, and then less likely):
- Coaching staff stays pretty much as-is.
- Thacker leaves and we promote Turner or Tillman to DC
- Key brings in Kelly or Pruitt and we lose Tillman and Thacker.
- Key brings in another DC that coaches LB and we lose Thacker and Semore.
I think the defense is going in the right direction, and I don’t see the need for wholesale changes. If you do change the defense, it better be a major out-of-the-gate improvement.
BTW, here’s the list from RamblinWreck.com. It’s out of date. Mike Daniel’s link goes to nowhere.
O line played pretty damn well against georgia and we still didn’t do too much. The offense looked a little better, but aside from the first scripted drive the play calling didn’t seem too imaginative.
If the rumor that Weinke did the play calling against UNC and UGA is true (and it was just something posted here and on other boards), then that might explain the play calling. Also, the last two games don’t help Long that much if he wasn’t calling plays.