General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics

[armeck]

That’s arguable but the basic point remains, we need more immigrants. Fix the system, let more people in legally, etc and speed the process up so it doesn’t take 2 decades to get an answer. We need probably 5-6 million immigrants per year on top of what’s already here illegally. Amnesty plus fixes would do the trick.

Oh forgot, kick the lawbreaking illegals out asap and the ones with violent priors.

I've always said that we don't need a bigger wall, we need a bigger gate. We need to make all those coming over come through an official checkpoint to be recorded and documented.

If any of you are into podcasts, I love Revisionist History by Malcolm Gladwell. He did one called General Chapman’s Last Stand talks about how prior to fencing up the border, most Mexican migrants flowed back and forth, seldom putting down roots, just working the season and then returning home. When the border became locked tighter it became too risky to flow back and forth so they began staying. Worth a listen.

 

[armeck]

Well that’s simply not true. Being born in the US makes you a citizen and it’s always been that way. But that’s absolutely been abused by people too. It doesn’t appear to me that the Trumps who immigrated here in the 1800s broke or abused any rules, but I could have read that article wrong.

Edit: I will also add that we always reserve the right to change our immigration policies as we see fit at any time of our choosing to benefit the United States. That means sometimes we need more immigrants, sometimes less, and sometimes different skill sets.

I'm not saying anything about Donald's birth, rather that had his grand parents not benefited from chain migration (that he wants to seriously curtail if not halt) his lineage most likely would not have been American.

 

[cyclejacket]

It wasn't an abuse of the system, it was simply the system. That system works the same way now. I said I found it ironic that what was ok in the past is now not ok in the present, specifically because the man railing against it owes his presence here to the usage of the system. Remember this isn't illegal immigration - crossing the desert at night or overstaying visas - this is the legal system that has been in place for ever and served us well.

Arguing that immigration today should be subject to the same policies from over a century ago is absurd.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I'm not saying anything about Donald's birth, rather that had his grand parents not benefited from chain migration (that he wants to seriously curtail if not halt) his lineage most likely would not have been American.

Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn’t. We don’t know. I’m just saying either way is irrelevant - whatever our immigration laws were in the 1800s May or may not resemble todays’s, and either way is okay. Many of us might be in the same boat - I have no idea what my distant relatives did or didn’t do long ago.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I've always said that we don't need a bigger wall, we need a bigger gate. We need to make all those coming over come through an official checkpoint to be recorded and documented.

If any of you are into podcasts, I love Revisionist History by Malcolm Gladwell. He did one called General Chapman’s Last Stand talks about how prior to fencing up the border, most Mexican migrants flowed back and forth, seldom putting down roots, just working the season and then returning home. When the border became locked tighter it became too risky to flow back and forth so they began staying. Worth a listen.

At our country’s birth, there was limited Naval power to strike across the ocean which at the time was a fairly unique strategic advantage. With the advent of steam driven ships, the ability to deploy large scale forces became possible. Aircraft made it possible to strike at great distances. Unconventional weapons such as nuclear & chemical/biological weapons made single strikes of great magnitude possible. Intercontinental ballistic missile increased the ability to project power without leaving one’s borders & coupled with unconventional weapons presented a different kind if challenge.

Today we’re faced with more easily scalable threats. Small groups of individuals are capable of causing great harm. We’ve experienced this recently although some seem to have forgotten already. It’s for this reason we need control over our borders more than in the past. That coupled with government’s Constitutional responsibility to promote the common defense of its people. That we knowingly encourage foreigners to invade our soil & deprive Americans of their rights is an abomination. Government’s most sacred responsibility is to its people, not foreigners. This is lost on many.

 

[Techster]

Long term play: Luckin Coffee

2nd biggest coffee outlet in China. Starbucks is still #1, but Luckin is starting to scale to overtake Starbucks. Different strategy with Luckin as Starbucks has positioned themselves as the "upscale" coffee choice with a higher price point whereas Luckin has positioned themselves as the "everyman's" coffee choice with a lower price point. The Chinese LOVE their coffee, and in a land of 3+ BILLION, there's room for both. Luckin is still expanding and a lot of revenue is being allocated to scaling their operations and expanding their footprint, yet they were still able to break a profit last quarter.

I bought in at around $22/share, and it got as high as $51/share. It dipped on the Coronavirus event (that's still ongoing), and I bought more shares at $34. Several funds have targeted Luckin to get to the $50-60/share range.

I've put Luckin in the same basket as JD.com and Alibaba: Hold for the longterm, and accumulate shares when you can...though I am easing off Alibaba as JD and Luckin have a longer runway in terms of share price.

 

[LibertyTurns]

There’s some risk from this coronavirus deal as Chinese businesses are likely to default on an even greater percentage of loans. Compounding this is Chinese companies are declaring force majeure allowing them out of contracts.

Then you have the other BRICs “bricking”. Brazil is in terrible shape, India is slowing significantly & Russia is weakening quite a bit. On top of all this Germany is about to enter a recession & they can’t afford more spending plus their interest rates are already negative.

Here we go as all the Socialist countries Liberals so admire are all tanking. Time for some of these rebellious trading partners to be put in their place. Free markets will always prevail & the good old American economic model when following proper fiscal policies will always prove to be superior in all respects.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

There’s some risk from this coronavirus deal as Chinese businesses are likely to default on an even greater percentage of loans. Compounding this is Chinese companies are declaring force majeure allowing them out of contracts.

Then you have the other BRICs “bricking”. Brazil is in terrible shape, India is slowing significantly & Russia is weakening quite a bit. On top of all this Germany is about to enter a recession & they can’t afford more spending plus their interest rates are already negative.

Here we go as all the Socialist countries Liberals so admire are all tanking. Time for some of these rebellious trading partners to be put in their place. Free markets will always prevail & the good old American economic model when following proper fiscal policies will always prove to be superior in all respects.

The debate was crazy last night - so much discussion of how making money is bad.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I’ll post this link again in case anyone wants to study the fundamentals behind the market dynamics. I’d recommend watching this week’s video in particular if you have a portfolio of any size worth actively managing. This guy does this for free every week & the investing education is amazing.



https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes

 

[LibertyTurns]

There’s a 72% chance of an additional 3% drop in the market. The median historical low would be 3125 on S&P and would bottom within the next 3-4 weeks. This is not a time for hope. Rational action is required. The average gain 12 months out would take the S&P to 3745. Money to be made here.

 

[Jim Prather]

Stocks are about to go on sale!

 

[LibertyTurns]

Stocks are about to go on sale!

When is the operative question. 7%, 10% or bigger discount? We’re already down 5%.

 

[Jim Prather]

Don't try to time it, just slowly put money into the market as it drops and as it starts to rebound. You will be guaranteed to make money.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Don't try to time it, just slowly put money into the market as it drops and as it starts to rebound. You will be guaranteed to make money.

We were at the same level as we were on 1/31. If the market drops to 3125, then recovers plus rises the historical 12.5% to 3745, well you just netted 19%. Last time this happened was 14-15 months ago. It’s the difference between dollar cost averaging and real appreciation in your portfolio.

 

[MWBATL]

Don't try to time it, just slowly put money into the market as it drops and as it starts to rebound. You will be guaranteed to make money.

Umm, by definition, that's kinda "timing it". A one day drop does not indicate a general drop, so you are always still trying to guess when it is "starting to rebound".

 

[Jim Prather]

I don't see it that way. You don't try to predict when it is going to hit rock bottom before going all in. You simply say, so long as the market is below X (whatever that number is for you), you will keep gradually adding money. Once the market has risen back above whatever arbitrary number you have chosen as your "rebound" cutoff number, you slow or stop your investment.
The only trick is that you need free cash to do it.

 

[LibertyTurns]

3125. Support level or not?

 

[LibertyTurns]

Less than 40% of yesterday’s volume with 90 mins left to go until the closing bell. Very interesting day.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Less than 40% of yesterday’s volume with 90 mins left to go until the closing bell. Very interesting day.

Lots of large mutual fund and 401m orders - many of them process at or close to close.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Well I’ll be damned. S&P damn near settled in at 3125. Below average volume for the day with all the bad news to boot. Have to take a look at next support level and decide where to go from here.

There’s always good money to be made when there’s unbridled hysteria.