We don’t need recessions, we need market corrections like this one followed by a nice strong recovery. I can’t speak for the rest of you but I want to retire with complete financial independence.A recession is a terrible thing to waste.
So I have about 80,000 in a 457. It’s starting to scare me because it was 87,000 before this correction started. What do I do ? Is there anyway to get out of a 457 without quitting my job ? The tax penalties are huge for early withdrawal and I have 10 months until I retire. I have moved my elections within the 457 to 80% bonds which is slowing the bleed but it’s still a bleed. If the FED does increase the rate it may ruin the bond market which in turn ruins my defense.
Pretty much how I do it. Hired a team that included personal financial planner and stock broker/investment strategist a few years ago. Was able to retire early as a result and have money to play with.I do a mix of real estate investing as well as traditional (and at my age, very conservative) stock funds investing.
The real estate investing is something I do entirely on my own on properties and with people I believe I know personally, to minimize risk.
The stock fund investing I allow my brokerage account managers to handle on my behalf. We meet every six months and make sure strategy wise we ar eon the same page. But then my objectives are much more capital preservation than growth at my age, so if the market goes up 10% I expect to go up 5% and if the market goes down 10% I expect to go down 5%. Ergo, these investments are very widely spread.
I make more money on the real estate than the stocks in recent years, but fully expect that to change with market conditions. I assume NO debt in my real estate investing.
Talked to my financial advisors today and they don't see much way around the crash that the market is going to go through given the artificial sugar high it was on. Similar problem is starting to happen in the housing market. Everywhere you look there are bubbles forming. This was inevitable and was predicted last year after the huge tax cut for the rich went into place. All that money resulted in, among other things, companies engaging in stock buy backs. When the tariffs hit and some business sectors had tangible pain, the high value that was on paper in the markets was exposed. Now the problem is going to be where to park your money. Those who go liquid will lock in their losses. Those who stay in the markets are going to have a rough ride which, hopefully, will last less than six years if the Fed can get the pain over with quickly.Inflation (using the idiotic formulas that they use) is below the Fed's target, the market is wobbly, and the Fed not only raised rates anyway yesterday, they said they're going to continue to raise rates a few more times.
For the long term health of our economy, interest rates should be miles higher than where they are today. That would require a very deep and short recession to affect that change. But the resulting flushing out of malinvestment would give us a much healthier economy going forward. That's a different thread for a different day. Going back to where we are today, this continual raising of interest rates when debt bubbles and spending levels were so high is exactly the same crap the Fed did the last time around. Then we ran into a debt crisis with subprime loans and everything else as people struggled to make payments. Then they start spending less and the downward spiral continues. The Fed is working very hard to cause that exact same problem again.
Hang on to your hats!
Talked to my financial advisors today and they don't see much way around the crash that the market is going to go through given the artificial sugar high it was on. Similar problem is starting to happen in the housing market. Everywhere you look there are bubbles forming. This was inevitable and was predicted last year after the huge tax cut for the rich went into place. All that money resulted in, among other things, companies engaging in stock buy backs. When the tariffs hit and some business sectors had tangible pain, the high value that was on paper in the markets was exposed. Now the problem is going to be where to park your money. Those who go liquid will lock in their losses. Those who stay in the markets are going to have a rough ride which, hopefully, will last less than six years if the Fed can get the pain over with quickly.
Our two posts seem unrelated.Almost everything you just wrote is completely backwards. You don’t create debt bubbles by letting people keep more of their money. You don’t create debt bubbles by increasing interest rates (people take out more debt when interest rates are low!). You can park your money in cash. Any crash will be quicker if the Fed stays out of the way.
I think that about covers it all.
Mnuchin - in sports terms - basically just gave a vote of confidence. Indices are down again today.
The handwriting is not on the wall yet, but sometimes you have to ask yourself why you’re paying people for advice. Below is a GT guy’s free analysis. It’s devoid of all the “feelings” I hear other people’s wealth managers/financial advisors talk about, just straight up facts and analysis. 5+ years of following this guy and my opinion it’s a great use of your spare time.Talked to my financial advisors today and they don't see much way around the crash that the market is going to go through given the artificial sugar high it was on. Similar problem is starting to happen in the housing market. Everywhere you look there are bubbles forming. This was inevitable and was predicted last year after the huge tax cut for the rich went into place. All that money resulted in, among other things, companies engaging in stock buy backs. When the tariffs hit and some business sectors had tangible pain, the high value that was on paper in the markets was exposed. Now the problem is going to be where to park your money. Those who go liquid will lock in their losses. Those who stay in the markets are going to have a rough ride which, hopefully, will last less than six years if the Fed can get the pain over with quickly.
The handwriting is not on the wall yet, but sometimes you have to ask yourself why you’re paying people for advice. ...
Admittedly I have a heavy bias for self-education. There’s so many BS financial advisors out there either over trading in order to get large commissions or put heavy loads on funds to siphon a larger percentage off back to themselves & their companies. I read a lot of financial crap every day- those either predicting the market roaring to huge gains or teetering on the edge of collapse. I wish there was a grading system for these people. Make an outrageous prediction or a bunch of smaller predictions & they don’t pan out, you get a big fat F rating. You’re perpetually correct, you get a big A+. Put them on record & cast their vote publically. These guys buy & large hide their real track records, present themselves as experts, and bilk hundreds of thousand unsuspecting investors looking for legitimate advice out of hundreds of million dollars every year, bankrupt pension funds, etc.Depends on what the advice is for. If I’m just looking for market performance and expectations, free analysis from a website may be adequate. For advice specific to my personal financial situation and goals, maybe I need a financial advisor.
Admittedly I have a heavy bias for self-education. There’s so many BS financial advisors out there either over trading in order to get large commissions or put heavy loads on funds to siphon a larger percentage off back to themselves & their companies. I read a lot of financial crap every day- those either predicting the market roaring to huge gains or teetering on the edge of collapse. I wish there was a grading system for these people. Make an outrageous prediction or a bunch of smaller predictions & they don’t pan out, you get a big fat F rating. You’re perpetually correct, you get a big A+. Put them on record & cast their vote publically. These guys buy & large hide their real track records, present themselves as experts, and bilk hundreds of thousand unsuspecting investors looking for legitimate advice out of hundreds of million dollars every year, bankrupt pension funds, etc.
Yep. I have pretty basic criteria for my certified financial planners. (1). They enable me to meet my goals. (2). They don't get paid unless they make money for me. (3). They make me a lot of money.I have a plethora of mutual fund options in my 401k in which to invest. I don’t know how to pick the best one for me. Sure, I can try research them, but at the end of the day I’m basically stuck looking at historical returns because I don’t know how to weigh the relative importance of any other information I learn. Whether one fund is inherently a better fund or not for my financial goals I cannot say with any confidence. A financial advisor can advise on that because he’s got a career of experience with them.
I have a plethora of mutual fund options in my 401k in which to invest. I don’t know how to pick the best one for me. Sure, I can try research them, but at the end of the day I’m basically stuck looking at historical returns because I don’t know how to weigh the relative importance of any other information I learn. Whether one fund is inherently a better fund or not for my financial goals I cannot say with any confidence. A financial advisor can advise on that because he’s got a career of experience with them.