General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics

[Deleted member 2897]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/06/david-stockman-predicts-50-percent-stock-market-plunge.html

You can also find people who say the stock market can go up another 50 percent. My point is, if losing a large percentage of your money would keep you up at night, then that chunk of money shouldn't be in the stock market. The market could keep going up for years, but it is a point of fact that valuations are at highs for being at the tail end of the longest business cycle in our recorded history. I agree with brave above you shouldn't try to time the market, but at the same time if there is money you might need in the next 5 years my personal recommendation is to not have that in the stock market. For example, I have 2 kids that will be starting college in 2 years and in 6 years. I now have 80% of our 529 college savings account in essentially a money market fund making 1%. I'm likely to need $100,000+ over the next 5 years so it would really hurt if I lost a lot of that money. Long term, the stock market may go down, but it will go back up...but you don't want to be forced to sell at a low because you need the money. That's when you want money available to buy.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Don’t mean to offend @bravejason or anyone else that feels the same but when you make business decisions are you “playing the business” or are you making educated decisions based on current business conditions? To me investing is a skill much like any other discipline, even like sports. You observe and react based on your knowledge, capabilities, risk tolerance, etc.

Some guys go for the pick 6 and end up heroes, some end up getting burned and are goats, some play it safe and win out, some play it safe and die a death by a thousand cuts.

 

[CuseJacket]

Yea, I'm not suggesting timing the market as a short-term strategy anyway. Maybe "investment" isn't the right word for short-term, but my intent was to ask about if anyone has had success with income-producing assets i.e., not investing for equity growth, rather for cash flow. In the stock world this would be dividends, not rising stock prices. Or in real estate, producing monthly passive income off of residential real estate, via hard-money notes or via commercial assets.

Ideally as @LibertyTurns points out, if I get into real estate which is where I'm personally headed, my intent is to go with the passive management approach. I'm inclined to go commercial real estate through an investment firm, but even if I get into residential real estate I am ok with sacrificing margin for property management. Right now I'm fully into equities for retirement purposes, but those don't help survive before age 59.5.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Good luck in commercial real estate. That’s a difficult undertaking and I hope you master it.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Another week, more good info out of Ciovacco Capital short takes. Recommend you spend 30 mins of your life watching this video if you’re interested in investing.

https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/

 

[LibertyTurns]

Last week some very important market moves took place. All indicators are pointing towards this baby’s getting ready to run. All our economy needed was a pro-business approach to growth and it’s getting that now.

https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/shor...now-about-asset-allocation-is-about-to-change

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/adx-trend-indicator.asp

 

[Jophish17]

Yea, I'm not suggesting timing the market as a short-term strategy anyway. Maybe "investment" isn't the right word for short-term, but my intent was to ask about if anyone has had success with income-producing assets i.e., not investing for equity growth, rather for cash flow.

I think you're on the right path. Real estate is great for this. There are also funds or indices and such for bonds, but then you're exposed to interest rate changes. I prefer real estate.

There are a number of REITs you can invest in. I've also done some investing with Groundfloor which finances residential property flippers (note: I do not personally plan to invest in Groundfloor again, just an option) - I think they offer income-producing products now.

I invest largely in equities with some real estate and fixed income assets. I also agree "the market" can be beaten on a return basis if you're willing to take on more risk. I worked in PE so I've done a bit of private placement but I generally prefer to avoid over-exposure considering my income already depended on the success of the firm.

The worse investment I've ever made was hiring a financial advisor.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Here’s we go boys & girls. The only thing that can knock this train off the tracks is your DC swamp critter trying to hold onto its power and keeping the man down so he needs his gubbermint teat.

 

[LibertyTurns]

This week’s video is fantastic. In depth discussion of long term market trends including concurrrence with Trendline Demark Breakout Strategy approach.

https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/2018/8/31/will-trend-exhaustion-take-down-the-bull

 

[LibertyTurns]

Tomorrow is quadruple witching. Should be an interesting day for the markets. Google, Facebook & Netflix among others get ousted from their respective sectors to a new commmunications sector. Biggest S&P GICS change in 19 years.

 

[LibertyTurns]

You need some balls to trade this market right now. I was cheering like crazy yesterday morning as I took some cash off the sideline and was licking my wounds by the end of the day. There’s some great re-entry points if you couldn’t get back in earlier but if the markets break resistance there would be losses on top of what’s already happened.

Inverted hammer yesterday which I’m taking as a good sign.

 

[collegeballfan]

Everything is connected, i.e. "China's trade surplus with the United States ballooned to a record $34.1 billion in September despite a raft of US tariffs, official data showed Friday...".

 

[Jophish17]

You need some balls to trade this market right now.

Yes, you do.

Over the past month I have been selling off a large portion of my personal portfolio to fund other investments... I sold my last bit of stock on Monday. Got lucky with the timing, could have easily taken a large hit this week.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Wow, I was locked up all day & the S&P bounced off the 61.8% Fib to close at the 50%. I made a semester worth of tuition last week & gave back half today when I was out of pocket. There were some off-the-chart deals today that I missed. Can we be lucky enough to have another volatile day tomorrow?

I really need the Liberals/Socialists to do good for another week or so. I’ve got 2 more semesters to pay for & the threat of you all wrecking the economy is almost a dream come true. I can cash the kid’s college education if you all can just keep it up. After that I need to you to crap the bed so I can pay for retirement. You’ve effectively moved me from 10 more years to retirement to 8 in the last 6 months. I would be grateful if you all could whip up enough doom & gloom BS and threats of the Maniac getting impeached to drive this down to 5 by the end of the year.

Note: I’m not a swing trader by nature but sometimes you have to adapt your personal preferences to the situation at hand.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Almost can’t work today. Big opportunities abound but you have to be nimble and on your game. If you miss a swing the costs can be significant.

Not a good time to be a fraidy cat. Just hand me the money and we’ll call it a day.

 

[LibertyTurns]

This market is crazy. I’m back in the black from last week but cashing out. I’m going to sit on the sideline for a while and watch the action.

If we don’t see recovery of support levels I’m going to start moving my long term investments to cash. I really thought this baby was going to run, but recent data suggests otherwise.

 

[Jophish17]

I think you are wise to pull back now. Could get very bloody soon. At the very least, I expect volatility around Election Day.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I think you are wise to pull back now. Could get very bloody soon. At the very least, I expect volatility around Election Day.

Rightfully many are concerned the economic policies including regulatory reductions that drove gains the last 2 years are in jeopardy, GDP gains/tax increases will not outpace our appetite for additional deficit spending, judicial reforms are thwarted and we’ll lack the backbone to continue aggressive trade negotiations.

How soon we forget. A weak America benefits nobody.

 

[LibertyTurns]

S&P closed below 2710 yesterday, a key support level. Early but not good today. If you’re in you have some brass balls.

Too much uncertainty and carnage to be had. Good old greenbacks are everyone’s safe haven! What happened to the BRIC darlings???

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The DOW is now down about -3,500 points from its high. If this is like corrections in the past, you could start seeing a lot more computer stop loss sell orders. Also, I wouldn't doubt if a lot of hedge funds and investment funds start moving their money around to protect themselves and keep enough money around for multiple reasons...one for customers that put in sell and withdrawal requests. All of these things add to the downward momentum and emotions just like they do the reverse on the way up. Its part of life, and the stock market has a large portion of its direction based upon emotion. You'll start seeing more news stories about the decline, which makes more average Joes that don't usually pay attention want to move their money to more conservative investment vehicles, and then rinse and repeat.

As I've said before, if you have money you don't need for at least a few years, the stock market may not be a bad place for it (I'd recommend dollar cost averaging on the way down)...but for me personally, I don't have any money I expect to need in the next 5 years in the stock market. Good luck, and peace. Definitely always have money on the side to invest, so if there ever is a real severe decline, you can take advantage of it. After the great recession and after the dot-com collapse...9/11 they turned out to be great buying opportunities.