My grandfather-in-law (since passed on), sold towards the bottom of a downturn because he was retired and was cutting his losses. Two years later, the market was higher than what he sold at.
I don’t know what’s happening after our current situation
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I think its hard to predict how awful this will be. We're in a worldwide recession. Could be an extremely deep one with like -20%+ declines. However, people seem to forget that everytime these things happen, 1 year from now the comparisons get that much easier. For example, imagine if we drop a catastrophic -20% in GDP in Q2, and by next year at this time, we're still down 15% from where we are and things haven't really come back. Well still, that will show a +5% growth in GDP. As those numbers roll in, more and more people and companies will feel comfortable with turning the spigots back on.
My hope is that we get through this sooner rather than later. We can't even try to get back to normal until we've started having a few days where new cases aren't any bigger than the day before. Once we get to at least an even equilibrium like that, it will be easier to manage. And once it is easier to manage, the narrative will change. And when narratives change, emotions change.
Every single Apple store is back open in China. Kids are starting to go back to school. We can't institute the military force quarantine they did, and we're a couple months behind them, but it does point to the fact that you an get through this.
