Game-by-Game Predictions

[GTNavyNuke]

Does Atomic mention their metric? I know they can only go off of previous results, but I count 5 teams on our schedule with new head coaches. Nobody knows how any of those will turn out.

Agree no one knows with confidence how games will turn out especially before / early in the season with all the player / coach changes. But the strength of programs has been shown to be somewhat constant, even when changing coaches. It's why changing coaches usually doesn't help much except to make a change to appease the alum.

Here is Atomic's discussion of his algorithm: http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-algorithm.html

There are other threads where we have discussed the accuracy of different rating systems ..... which ones are the best depends on the year and Atomic is usually up in the top 20% of systems as I remember.

 

[RyanS12]

I have used atomic for the last few years to help me bet on point spreads and I've noticed they are right as far as outcome and spreads a lot more than they're wrong.

 

[MWBATL]

Atomic Football has us winning 7 (actually 7.18) games this year. Here's their take, starting with BC at 21-16 GT. http://www.atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_9.html

Date Opponent Conference Division Score
3 Sep 2016 Boston College ACC (Atlantic) FBS Pred: 21-16, 66.0% win
10 Sep 2016 Mercer Southern FCS Pred: 45-10, 99.2% win
17 Sep 2016 Vanderbilt SEC (East) FBS Pred: 26-15, 77.9% win
22 Sep 2016 Clemson ACC (Atlantic) FBS Pred: 24-34, 25.7% win
1 Oct 2016 Miami FL ACC (Coastal) FBS Pred: 29-23, 65.4% win
8 Oct 2016 @ Pittsburgh ACC (Coastal) FBS Pred: 27-29, 44.7% win
15 Oct 2016 Georgia Southern Sun Belt FBS Pred: 33-24, 71.0% win
29 Oct 2016 Duke ACC (Coastal) FBS Pred: 33-25, 68.6% win
5 Nov 2016 @ North Carolina ACC (Coastal) FBS Pred: 31-35, 42.0% win
12 Nov 2016 @ Virginia Tech ACC (Coastal) FBS Pred: 26-27, 49.6% win
19 Nov 2016 Virginia ACC (Coastal) FBS Pred: 31-23, 69.6% win
26 Nov 2016 @ Georgia SEC (East) FBS Pred: 21-26, 37.3% win

Wow, 4 of those losses are VERY close (Pitt by 2, VPI&SU by 1, UNC by 4 and UGag by 5), while only 1 win is within 5 points (and that would be the opener with BC)....so theoretically, there isa ton of upside in these predictions. Looks to me like 6 wins is the floor and 11 is the ceiling and it could turn out anywhere in between depending upon injuries, turnovers, officials, etc

 

[alagold]

Unless things have really changed in the last two years.......Pitt is like playing at a neutral field.

yep, except now they have 16 returning starters plus Conners, and they beat us last yr for confidence

 

[alentrekin]

I don't get that? If we beat Clemson, we will beat Miami next week. We all know how we preform when doubted in preseason.

Love the optimism! But..if we beat Clemson with #4@QB, we would be favored in every other game until we meet them again in ACCCG.

 

[awbuzz]

From the AJC - link

The schedule: (Mercer not on list)

Team Probability of GT Win
Boston College .655
Vanderbilt .864
Clemson .187
Miami .722
Pittsburgh .463
Georgia Southern .727
Duke .734
North Carolina .389
Virginia Tech .382
Virginia .813
Georgia .160

 

[Campbeae]

I don't think it's wise to dismiss Vanderbilt with Clemson after on a short week. It's a team that is easy to overlook but returning just about everyone on one of the best defenses in the SEC last year, offensively if they improve to average they are a threat to win the SEC east (3 different offensive systems in 3 years - 13', 14', and 15')

Net - I think Georgia tech will win and I hope they do because I see more upside in the team but it's going to be closer that people think