Game 4 Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest (-7)

[Thwg777]

I’m seeing Wake favored by 7. That seems high. They ain’t played no one. O/U not available yet - should be a big number.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Wake opens at Circa -8 with a total of 60.5. Looks about right, GT should see a significant downgrade after the Ole Miss game. I know King and the Offense looked ok, but everything else about that game was bad.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[bobongo]

I'm going with Tech +200 or better on the money line We win this one straight up.

 

[GTJake]

Wake opens at Circa -8 with a total of 60.5. Looks about right, GT should see a significant downgrade after the Ole Miss game. I know King and the Offense looked ok, but everything else about that game was bad.

I re-watched the game last night, its amazing what you see when you are not rolling with gameday emotions. Except for the last of the 4thQ when it seemed like we ran out of gas it wasn't that bad, the final score was not indicative of the competitiveness of most of the game. And like was said WF hasn't played anyone and I think their QB might have gotten a little dinged-up. This line surprises me, it'll be interesting to see what the betting world thinks, but I look for a significant drop to 3-4 pts.

 

[Sean311]

This game will really tell us how we are going to fair in the ACC. I think we win big. 48-21 type game. I think this team is pissed off and ready to explode.

 

[boger2337]

We likely lose 38-28 or something close to it.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Line has already been bet down to Wake -6.5, which is significant when you move past the key number of 7.

Just like last week, I think the play here is over 60.5. We are now 8th in pace in the nation with 81 plays per game. And most importantly, our D is atrocious. I don't think the market has caught up to our offensive pace and efficiency.

 

[bobongo]

Line has already been bet down to Wake -6.5, which is significant when you move past the key number of 7.

Just like last week, I think the play here is over 60.5. We are now 8th in pace in the nation with 81 plays per game. And most importantly, our D is atrocious. I don't think the market has caught up to our offensive pace and efficiency.

Might be a good bet but lordy, you were ~20 points behind the eight-ball last week with 8 minutes to go. 30 points in the last eight minutes pulled your bet out of the fire.
Better than me - I took GT +20.5. Thought I had a back door cover but lost it in the last minute. I'm doubling up with GT on the money line this week.

 

[LargeFO]

Line has already been bet down to Wake -6.5, which is significant when you move past the key number of 7.

Just like last week, I think the play here is over 60.5. We are now 8th in pace in the nation with 81 plays per game. And most importantly, our D is atrocious. I don't think the market has caught up to our offensive pace and efficiency.

Wouldn't it make more sense for us to slow down some on O to try to keep our weaker unit off the field?

 

[57jacket]

· Tech leads the nation with just five penalties and is second with 65 total penalty yards. The Jackets are also 16th in converting third downs (53.5%), 14th in total offense (513.3 ypg) and 20th in passing offense (310 ypg) and sacks allowed with only three.

· The Jackets rank last nationally with only 2.3 tackles for loss per game and one sack, 128th in rushing defense (240.7 yards allowed per game), 115th in points allowed per game (33.3), 113th in total defense (483.3 yards allowed per game) and 101st in red zone defense by giving up a score 91.7% of the time.

 

[slugboy]

Wouldn't it make more sense for us to slow down some on O to try to keep our weaker unit off the field?

Maximize your chances of getting 7 on each series, and go all in on the boat race. If those drives are short and explosive, then the defense is on the field more.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Wouldn't it make more sense for us to slow down some on O to try to keep our weaker unit off the field?

I honestly don't know how to answer this. In general, pace + offensive efficiency is highly correlated with successful teams. We are dead last in P5 allowing 7.42 yds per play, so I think we are an outlier here.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Might be a good bet but lordy, you were ~20 points behind the eight-ball last week with 8 minutes to go. 30 points in the last eight minutes pulled your bet out of the fire.
Better than me - I took GT +20.5. Thought I had a back door cover but lost it in the last minute. I'm doubling up with GT on the money line this week.

Yeah, it definitely wasn't looking good until late in the 3rd, but remember there were a few drives on both sides in the 1H that should have resulted in points. Trust the process, not the results! And I had a bit of GT +20.5 as well, so I feel your pain.

 

[roadkill]

Wouldn't it make more sense for us to slow down some on O to try to keep our weaker unit off the field?

We did just that last Saturday, thus the high number of plays. Then in the second half after Ole Miss started to pull away, we had to score more quickly to have a chance to win. It also could have been a reflection of what the Ole Miss D was doing to stop us. I like to think it was a part of our game plan, though.

 

[wvGT11]

If thacker fixes the D issues this week, then I think we got this

 

[slugboy]

We did just that last Saturday, thus the high number of plays. Then in the second half after Ole Miss started to pull away, we had to score more quickly to have a chance to win. It also could have been a reflection of what the Ole Miss D was doing to stop us. I like to think it was a part of our game plan, though.

Yes, our time of possession was 40 minutes.

However

• We only scored 23 points. Last year’s FBS average was about 28 points per game
• Ole Miss averaged 8.1 yards per rush and 13.2 yards per pass. We were averaging 3.1 yards per rush and 7.3 yards per pass. Maybe the story is more Ole Miss was fast rather than we were slow.
• Maybe it was our strategy to slow the game down, but you gotta get points. With an average defense, you need 30 points (at least). Unless our defense gets their act together, we need something more like 40 to win.
• In our two FBS games, we gave up 39 and 48 points. This team needs to score, and field goals don’t help much
• Yards are nice. This year’s offense is better than last year’s. Yards don’t win games, though.
• Like it or not, we’re playing Big 12 ball, even though we’re in the ACC. We need to score every series.

Side note: we could use some kind of counter or trap. I don’t know if that’s compatible with our blocking and offense, but we don’t penalize the other team for overcommitting to a play.

 

[tmhunter52]

If thacker fixes the D issues this week, then I think we got this

Thacker has had a long enough period of OJT. If he lacks sufficient talented personnel, he could at least have taught and required the ones he has to play with better technique and aggression. Once/If he fixes the defense, we could be in most or all of our remaining games.

 

[GTJake]

Thacker has had a long enough period of OJT. If he lacks sufficient talented personnel, he could at least have taught and required the ones he has to play with better technique and aggression. Once/If he fixes the defense, we could be in most or all of our remaining games.

I've never met Thacker and don't know much about him before he came here, but he seems to have nine lives in his coaching tenure at GT ???

 

[roadkill]

Yes, our time of possession was 40 minutes.

However

• We only scored 23 points. Last year’s FBS average was about 28 points per game
• Ole Miss averaged 8.1 yards per rush and 13.2 yards per pass. We were averaging 3.1 yards per rush and 7.3 yards per pass. Maybe the story is more Ole Miss was fast rather than we were slow.
• Maybe it was our strategy to slow the game down, but you gotta get points. With an average defense, you need 30 points (at least). Unless our defense gets their act together, we need something more like 40 to win.
• In our two FBS games, we gave up 39 and 48 points. This team needs to score, and field goals don’t help much
• Yards are nice. This year’s offense is better than last year’s. Yards don’t win games, though.
• Like it or not, we’re playing Big 12 ball, even though we’re in the ACC. We need to score every series.

Side note: we could use some kind of counter or trap. I don’t know if that’s compatible with our blocking and offense, but we don’t penalize the other team for overcommitting to a play.

I don’t think anyone is saying we should get awards for yards, TOP, and # of plays. Our failure to score when in scoring position in the first half cost us at least 6, and possibly 10 points. I doubt that was part of our plan. But it happened. Meanwhile, we limited Ole Miss possessions and they went into halftime with only a 7-point lead. We scored 20 points in the second half. That’s above average for a half.

We entered the game as 3-score underdogs. If the game went according to the prognosticators, we would not have had much of a chance to win by the fourth quarter. Limiting the opponent’s possessions is a means of keeping the game within reach in Q4. I suspect Key and his staff may have thought that this approach would at least give us a better chance to win, rather than attempting a shootout.

I could be completely wrong about our intentions and instead, we just took what the Ole Miss D was giving us.