I think the new rule could really hurt the Bamas and Gaggers of this world. When they see they are going to sit for another couple of years after being promised the moon.
I am not so sure I agree with this. Put yourself in the mind of a 19 year old athlete who was heavily recruited and told he might not play much as a freshman, but the future championships are being built with guys like him. If nothing else, these kids have a lot of confidence in their ability to grow and succeed.
If Spring practice of his Soph year passes and he is still taking reps with the scout team, he will get the message. But, are those the guys we want to recruit 3 or 4 years from now? A second team offensive lineman might not get many minutes until his junior or senior season unless he is truly great. Those guys are not transferring from Bama to GT two years after high school.
What is more likely, is a kid is redshirted his freshman year, then works his tail off the next year. Then he sees a 5* recruit coming in at his position. He has not played much, but always hoped he would be next in line when he matured a bit. Now he's wondering whether the hyped kid is cemented in front of him and those minutes he dreamed about are now going to the new kid. He has three years of eligibility left if he acts before his second & third choice schools fill up their slots. If he sticks around for another year without much PT, the only schools interested in him are he ones desperate for recruits with any ability at all. His dreams of championships will be gone.