Final Points Per Drive Stats

ITJacket

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
12
First, credit to CPJ for bringing this up as a stat he pays attention to. That alone was enough to make GT fans notice it. Second, credit to AE87 for doing some of the original work.

Offensive PPD

Here's the basic methodology. Numerator is offensive points scored, denominator is total offensive drives. I debated whether or not to include XPs and 2 Pt Conversions, but I did include them in the end. Most of this data is pulled manually, so someone feel free to check my math.

((Rushing TDs + Passing TDs) * 7) + (FG Made * 3) + (XP Made) + (2 Pt Conversions * 2) /
(Rushing TDs + Passing TDs + FG Attempts + Fumbles Lost + Interceptions + Failed 4th Downs)

Final Overall Top 15 (FBS Average: 2.22, FBS Median: 2.20, P5 Average: 2.32, P5 Median: 2.25)

1) Oregon (3.73)
2) Georgia Tech (3.55)
3) Baylor (3.53)
4) Marshall (3.45)
5) Georgia (3.44)
6) Georgia Southern (3.41)
7) Ohio State (3.38)
8) Western Kentucky (3.28)
9) Michigan State (3.2)
10) Alabama (3.01)
11) Kansas State (2.98)
12) Toledo (2.97)
13) TCU (2.94)
14) Navy (2.92)
15) Auburn (2.86)

Other GT Opponents:

19) Pittsburgh (2.79)
27) Florida State (2.69)
29) Mississippi State (2.67)
30) North Carolina State (2.63)
42) Duke (2.51)
49) Miami (Florida) (2.38)
53) North Carolina (2.34)
78) Clemson (2.09)
91) Virginia (1.87)
109) Virginia Tech (1.61)
124) Tulane (1.21)

Notes:
  • Oregon's offense is really, really good. You would think a stat like this one would penalize an offense like theirs that runs a lot of plays, but they are still the best in the country even with this metric. Pretty impressive.
  • Our offense is also really good. This will become even more clear when you look at some of the defenses we've faced.
  • There's something in the water in Georgia. Three Georgia teams in the top 6, wow.
  • A real credit to Clemson's defense that they were able to have the season they had with a significantly below-average offense.
  • I don't know that this is surprising, but the ACC was not a great offensive league this year. Overall, a 2.23 average, just over the FBS overall average, but if you take GT out, the rest of the league only averaged 2.12 PPD.
Defensive PPD

Here's the basic methodology. Numerator is defensive points allowed, denominator is total defensive drives. Again, including XPs and 2 Pt Conversions. This does not attempt to net out any defensive TDs or safeties from the point total.

((Opp Rushing TDs+ Opp Passing TDs) * 7) + (Opp FG Made * 3) + (Opp XP Made) + (Opp 2 Pt Conversions* 2) /
(Opp Rushing TDs + Opp Passing TDs + Opp FG Attempts + Opp Fumbles Lost + Interceptions + Opp Failed 4th Downs)

Final Overall Top 15 (FBS Average: 2.11, FBS Median: 2.05, P5 Average: 1.97, P5 Median: 1.86)

1) Clemson (1.09)
2) Mississippi (1.12)
3) Temple (1.21)
4) TCU (1.21)
5) Memphis (1.31)
6) Penn State (1.31)
7) Stanford (1.33)
8) Florida (1.36)
9) LSU (1.4)
10) Virginia Tech (1.4)
11) Utah State (1.42)
12) UCF (1.42)
13) Alabama (1.43)
14) Louisville (1.46)
15) Mississippi State (1.54)

Other GT Opponents

24) Virginia (1.69)
27) Georgia (1.71)
28) Duke (1.72)
44) Miami (Florida) (1.86)
59) Tulane (1.97)
63) Florida State (2.02)
66) Georgia Southern (2.05)
81) North Carolina State (2.21)
86) Pittsburgh (2.25)
99) Georgia Tech (2.46)
116) North Carolina (2.89)

Notes:
  • We are not a good defense by this measure at all. 99 out of 128 teams in FBS, 13 out of 14 in the ACC, 56 out of 65 P5. Yuck, yuck, yuck.
  • We played some good defenses this year. # 1, 10, 15, 24, 27, 28. And remember, these rankings are AFTER our games with these teams, so we may have bumped them down a bit.
  • Clemson's D was absolutely sick.
  • ACC was pretty strong defensively. 1.91 overall average, 2nd only to the SEC's 1.80.
 

JacketXL

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
4
((Rushing TDs + Passing TDs) * 7) + (FG Made * 3) + (XP Made) + (2 Pt Conversions * 2) /
(Rushing TDs + Passing TDs + FG Attempts + Fumbles Lost + Interceptions + Failed 4th Downs)

So.... you made TDs worth 7 points AND included XPs and 2-point conversions..... I am hoping this is just a slip on the finger?
 

ITJacket

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
12
So.... you made TDs worth 7 points AND included XPs and 2-point conversions..... I am hoping this is just a slip on the finger?

You're right, just a slip of the finger. The formula is correctly multiplying by 6 rather than 7.

And now apparently I can't edit the original post. So it'll stay wrong.
 

dcyellowjacket

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
81
Any idea how they calculate garbage-time? Point differential?
I'm not 100% sure, but bcftoys is run by the same guy who does the FEI on Football Outsiders. AFAIK, he doesn't specify his definition of garbage time, but the other efficiency ranking on FO, the S&P+, defines it as:
The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

I don't know that the FEI/PPD on bcftoys is the same, but I suspect it's similar.
 

Boomergump

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
3,281
All those good SEC defenses......... I guess we all know now, that was because of the plethora of pedestrian SEC offenses combined with weak OOC opponents and not some physical superiority over the rest of the nation.
 

TechnicalPossum

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
801
How are punts factored into this? Are they counted as a failed 4th down?

Also, does it account for end of half drives where a knee is taken of a single play is run?
 

ITJacket

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
12
How are punts factored into this? Are they counted as a failed 4th down?

Also, does it account for end of half drives where a knee is taken of a single play is run?

Punts are being counted, they should also go into the denominator. I was apparently having a brain fart when I wrote the formula out in this post.

No, those drive would NOT be accounted for, as they don't "end" in any of the ways I am tracking in the denominator.
 

TechnicalPossum

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
801
Punts are being counted, they should also go into the denominator. I was apparently having a brain fart when I wrote the formula out in this post.

No, those drive would NOT be accounted for, as they don't "end" in any of the ways I am tracking in the denominator.

Gotcha. A lot of stats like that just look at # of drives, not # that were ended by defense. The only possible bias I could see would be how to judge an INT on a 2nd quarter final play hail mary. But, that should become statistically insignificant across 12-15 games.
 

AE 87

Helluva Engineer
Messages
13,026
Gotcha. A lot of stats like that just look at # of drives, not # that were ended by defense. The only possible bias I could see would be how to judge an INT on a 2nd quarter final play hail mary. But, that should become statistically insignificant across 12-15 games.

Yep. There's nothing you can do to completely purify down and dirty stats like this. You can't account for fumbles that occur during run-backs either--they'd still count as an offensive possession. You just got to assume it'll wash in over the course of the season.

These stats are still an improvement over the Total Points of Scoring Offense stats which not only counts run-back scores as offensive points but also counts the points scored by an offense in a 20 possession game as the same as 20 pts scored by an offense in a 10 possession game.

The relationship between Oregon and GT in these PPD stat is basically the same as footballoutsiders' OE (offense efficiency) stat which is calculated differently but which still does not yet account for opposition.

GT's value over Oregon appears as you consider opposition defense.
 

TechnicalPossum

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
801
Yep. There's nothing you can do to completely purify down and dirty stats like this. You can't account for fumbles that occur during run-backs either--they'd still count as an offensive possession. You just got to assume it'll wash in over the course of the season.

These stats are still an improvement over the Total Points of Scoring Offense stats which not only counts run-back scores as offensive points but also counts the points scored by an offense in a 20 possession game as the same as 20 pts scored by an offense in a 10 possession game.

The relationship between Oregon and GT in these PPD stat is basically the same as footballoutsiders' OE (offense efficiency) stat which is calculated differently but which still does not yet account for opposition.

GT's value over Oregon appears as you consider opposition defense.

Most of my stat head knowledge is from baseball. But baseball is a lot easier to clean stats.

But like baseball, the stats in football seem to be evolving from counting stats, to averages, to normalized averages. This is good work by you and ITJacket. Would stats like points scored per minute possession and/or points per play have any further significance?
 

TechnicalPossum

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
801
Also, anything over 3 PPD means that on average you score more than a FG every drive, right? In theory, is there a way to predict the record of a team with an average defense that scores 3 points every drive as a means of comparison?
 

AE 87

Helluva Engineer
Messages
13,026
Most of my stat head knowledge is from baseball. But baseball is a lot easier to clean stats.

But like baseball, the stats in football seem to be evolving from counting stats, to averages, to normalized averages. This is good work by you and ITJacket. Would stats like points scored per minute possession and/or points per play have any further significance?

Tks. To your last two questions, I would say (1) no wrt winning and perhaps (2) yes wrt excitement.
 
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