Expectations

[LongforDodd]

A 50-60% chance to be bowl eligible? From what I've seen so far in three games...sounds about right.

 

[slugboy]

We’re better odds than not to get bowl eligible. But just barely.

We have a top tier QB, but our offense is inconsistent. We probably need to be more balanced. Our defense is susceptible to the passing game.

In the offseason, some people said if our defense improves to average and our offense stays where it was or improves a little, we’re a top 25 team. I think that’s where we are, but that’s not good enough to stay in the top 25. A top 35 offense and an average defense is just outside of the rankings.

I think we’re looking at 6 1/2 wins right now. We need to improve our pass defense and get more consistent on offense.

Our defense has improved in the offseason, but it still has a long way to go. If we don’t improve the pass defense, we’ll get picked apart.

Our offensive line is better than two years ago, but it’s not clicking yet.

I’m assuming we improve as the season goes along—if we don’t, we don’t go bowling. Defense and OL have some work to do.

VT and UNC are still overrated. Duke’s coaching staff isn’t nearly as good as last season. Between VMI, VT, UNC, Duke, and VT, we have a path to 7 wins without a big upset.

Let’s find an upset, though

 

[tmhunter52]

I think 6 wins is a realistic number. VMI, Duke, one of Miami, NC St or Notre Dame at home and either UNC or VT on the road. Louisville and UGA look like very long shots to me on the road.

What teams have passing attacks as good as McCord and Syracuse? We likely put those in the loss column.

 

[g0lftime]

FWIW, at 2-1, we're right where I thought we would be at this point. We just took a surprising route to get here.

If we get to six wins and a bowl, I think we will have done well this year given the schedule.

I was suggesting an "Ivy League" approach to football just a few years ago, so this is an amazing turnaround from the president's office on down. The staff and the recruiting classes have me feeling very optimistic about the future.

I still have concerns about the future of college football and advocate for the relegation system, but recent events have me thinking that a seat at the Big 10 table is still possible.

The state of P4 athletics now is if you are not all in, you better get out. It has become binary. You can't compete otherwise. Some schools will get priced out of being able to compete if the current system is not changed. A two tiered system may evolve based on agreed budget caps, scholarships, and scheduling agreements.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Home vs Away is the difference

Is that just a generic feature of the algorithm or does it take into account that some teams seem to play better away than at home ?

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I guess. And in our pattern of late it wouldn't surprise me if Tech beats Louisville and loses to Duke, analytics, eyeballs, and everything else be damned.

So Tech of us.

 

[slugboy]

Is that just a generic feature of the algorithm or does it take into account that some teams seem to play better away than at home ?

Generic feature. For example, it didn’t give Pittsburgh home field advantage on Sunday in the Benz against the Falcons, but they seemed to have it.

{I haven’t seen the algorithm, so it’s a SWAG}

 

[leatherneckjacket]

From a statistical perspective, I see four more wins. If we can steal an extra upset or two, we can get to 7 or 8 wins. We really needed to beat Cuse to have the type if season I had hoped we could have after beating FSU.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

The state of P4 athletics now is if you are not all in, you better get out. It has become binary. You can't compete otherwise. Some schools will get priced out of being able to compete if the current system is not changed. A two tiered system may evolve based on agreed budget caps, scholarships, and scheduling agreements.

No it hasn’t. You have a very few elite teams and then about 70 teams that are all very similar in talent. This mantra that there are the haves and the have nots is not nearly as big an issue as fans looking for excuses believe it is. There are 134 FBS teams. Of those you have about 10 that are head and shoulders above the rest. That’s it. It’s not like there are 50 super elite teams and then 50 that suck.

Outside of those elite top 10 or so programs the vast majority of P4 teams are very even. The entire ACC is even. Outside of UGA, Texas, and maybe Tenn this year, the rest of the SEC is even.

NIU just played head to head with ND. That game wasn’t a fluke. NIU’s players are just as good as ND’s players.

There is no reason to split when the sport is pretty darn even. And really outside of UGA (and maybe Texas now), there is no one that is super elite. And UGA will come back down once they get subpar QB play. Like Dabo did a few years back, Kirby has picked the right QB the past 4 years. Bama is back to earth with an average QB and average coach.

My point is the so called gap isn’t nearly as great as whiners make it sound like. There are 4 teams that I‘ve seen play that I would say would beat GT rather easily this year - UGA, Tenn, USC, and Texas. They all have elite QB’s that would shred us like McCord did. And we still only lost by 3 against him. But, GT would play everyone else a tough game where winning or losing comes down to a few plays, penalties, or turnovers like we saw against FSU and Syracuse.

 

[apatriot1776]

Before Syracuse: Ceiling 9-3, floor 6-6

After Syracuse: Ceiling 9-3, floor 5-7

I'm an optimist and the rest of our schedule aside from UGA and Miami is still open for the taking. We were right there with Louisville last year. Jury's out since they only played a couple tune-up games but it's very possible they got worse with a lot of graduates. Duke, UNC, ND, VT, NC State are all winnable. At the same time they are very much loseable - as we saw on Saturday.

We shall see how the team responds. If the Syracuse loss was due to correctable mistakes, bad prep, and fatigue, this is still a very dangerous team; if it's a symptom of larger problems, this team is still in danger of missing a bowl.

 

[roadkill]

We’re better odds than not to get bowl eligible. But just barely.

We have a top tier QB, but our offense is inconsistent. We probably need to be more balanced. Our defense is susceptible to the passing game.

In the offseason, some people said if our defense improves to average and our offense stays where it was or improves a little, we’re a top 25 team. I think that’s where we are, but that’s not good enough to stay in the top 25. A top 35 offense and an average defense is just outside of the rankings.

I think we’re looking at 6 1/2 wins right now. We need to improve our pass defense and get more consistent on offense.

Our defense has improved in the offseason, but it still has a long way to go. If we don’t improve the pass defense, we’ll get picked apart.

Our offensive line is better than two years ago, but it’s not clicking yet.

I’m assuming we improve as the season goes along—if we don’t, we don’t go bowling. Defense and OL have some work to do.

VT and UNC are still overrated. Duke’s coaching staff isn’t nearly as good as last season. Between VMI, VT, UNC, Duke, and VT, we have a path to 7 wins without a big upset.

Let’s find an upset, though

Agree with this, but I'd add NC St. to your list of potential wins. ND is looking vulnerable as well. 9 more games, I think we can find 4 wins to make a bowl, with another couple of wins within the realm of feasibility.

 

[Randy Carson]

BTW, I'm not overly concerned about being "exposed" on defense.

Didn't we learn what we need to work on over the next couple of weeks?

As long as we don't make the same mistakes twice, the teams we have yet to play will not be seeing the Sept 7 version of our Defense.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

BTW, I'm not overly concerned about being "exposed" on defense.

Didn't we learn what we need to work on over the next couple of weeks?

As long as we don't make the same mistakes twice, the teams we have yet to play will not be seeing the Sept 7 version of our Defense.

I guess I am disappointed that neither Santucci nor Buster came up with a good game plan and neither were able to adjust before the 4th quarter. I did not expect both of them to be outschemed.

I am more concerned that after Key preached toughness and physicality, that our team was flat and were clearly the less physical team. Maybe it is the residual effect of the Ireland trip, but we should have pushed their defense around and we did not.

 

[gtie73]

I guess I am disappointed that neither Santucci nor Buster came up with a good game plan and neither were able to adjust before the 4th quarter. I did not expect both of them to be outschemed.

I am more concerned that after Key preached toughness and physicality, that our team was flat and were clearly the less physical team. Maybe it is the residual effect of the Ireland trip, but we should have pushed their defense around and we did not.

I went to the game. Besides the quarterback , Syracuse has added several pro prospects via the portal . yes our OL got beat because Syr lines and #10 appeared highly motivated (via their coach- ex UGA DB coach) to prove they could be tougher than the GT squad. worked for one game where we had just one game film. I believe karma will catch up with them. On to VMI AND THE OTHER GAMES.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I went to the game. Besides the quarterback , Syracuse has added several pro prospects via the portal . yes our OL got beat because Syr lines and #10 appeared highly motivated (via their coach- ex UGA DB coach) to prove they could be tougher than the GT squad. worked for one game where we had just one game film. I believe karma will catch up with them. On to VMI AND THE OTHER GAMES.

I am not sure how many times he can go down the fake outrage route, but yes it seemed to work this game. I definitely think Key will have a long memory of how their coach behaved this past week.

 

[Vespidae]

Some schools will get priced out of being able to compete if the current system is not changed.

FSU spent $12 million on their 2024 roster. And they are 0-2. Against unranked teams.

 

[slugboy]

Agree with this, but I'd add NC St. to your list of potential wins. ND is looking vulnerable as well. 9 more games, I think we can find 4 wins to make a bowl, with another couple of wins within the realm of feasibility.

I braincramped and wrote VT twice. One of them should be NCST.

I think we have a shot at a great season—we need to win games like the one we just lost, though.

 

[jmahone]

The state of P4 athletics now is if you are not all in, you better get out. It has become binary. You can't compete otherwise. Some schools will get priced out of being able to compete if the current system is not changed. A two tiered system may evolve based on agreed budget caps, scholarships, and scheduling agreements.

I hate that I think you are right.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I braincramped and wrote VT twice. One of them should be NCST.

I think we have a shot at a great season—we need to win games like the one we just lost, though.

Agreed. Every game except the one at the end is essentially a toss up. It comes down to who performs on game day. I wouldn’t be surprised if we beat Louisville by 10 and I wouldn’t be surprised if they ran us off the field by 20. We have players and coaches who can compete. It comes down to that particular day. And every team except UGA, Texas, and maybe 2-3 more are in that same situation.

 

[tmhunter52]

This year, like most years on The Flats, it all depends on which team shows up - Good Tech or Bad Tech.