Expansion Talk 2021

[Old School]

The best thing the ACC could do is create interesting games. To do that you need a North and South division. Put the following in the South:
GT
FSU
Clempsum
Miama
NC
NC State
Puke
The rest go North. If ND joins stock them in North and add UCF in South and alternate crossovers.

 

[TruckStick]

Get UCF and ND if anything. Other than that, keep all your teams. Not sure why Clemson or FSU would want to lose their easy path plus money is overrated. Donors make the difference anyway.

 

[Pointer]

Get UCF and ND if anything. Other than that, keep all your teams. Not sure why Clemson or FSU would want to lose their easy path plus money is overrated. Donors make the difference anyway.

Honestly, this doesn't sound too bad. Especially with the future being streaming services instead of markets, it makes all the sense in the world of PSU doesn't want in.

 

[bobongo]

This is why it's LOL funny that anyone would think a B1G team would leave for the ACC. That disparity is only going to get bigger in the coming years/decades.

What's sad to think about is how much money GT turned down. Over the next 15 years of the ACC's remaining GOR lifespan, GT will have lost at minimum $255 MILLION. Look at that number...that's most likely going to be a MUCH larger number in 15 years.

If those are the kind of strategic decisions we're going to make, GT can not complain about revenue issues because that's the bed we made for ourselves.

The best strategic decision we could make now is to spend the money we have wisely. We can only get ahead by getting a bigger bang for the buck.

 

[bobongo]

Not if we renegotiate the deal with Notre Dame and Penn State as members.

I wonder if even that would be enough to close the gap all the way. It would probably be a close call, and PSU would have to cover the buyout to boot.
But I guess it might be a possibility. The ACC might cover the buyout.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

As the experts have pointed out, if Clemson and FSU went to the B1G it would put them in a financial hole so deep it would take them 20 years to catch up to the other teams. Rutgers still has millions to pay back and Maryland is still struggling with the hit they took.

Point is, Clemson and FSU can’t leave until the contract runs out, so they are not leaving. The ACC is not about to let them out of the contract. The B1G is no longer in the business of helping schools pay off their debt either.

The dream, far fetched as it might be, is that if Penn State left the B1G, the ACC might be willing to cover the cost of getting them out of their contract. With PS and Notre Dame on board, the renegotiated contract with ESPN would give both the ACC and Penn State a bigger payoff than they had previously.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

So much gnashing of teeth in this thread! It really is never as bad or as good as it looks. We wont be destroyed and the SEC will not control all of college football. Life will go on. Tech will keep doing Tech things

 

[4shotB]

Tech will keep doing Tech things

This my friend IS exactly what we are most afraid of!!!

 

[orientalnc]

This my friend IS exactly what we are most afraid of!!!

The problem we face is that we are not dealing with the issues from a position of strength. Tech is a special place to a unique set of people. Unfortunately we are not in the majority of sports fans. Far to many people who have never found Athens on a Georgia map are devoted Bulldog fans. That's not likely to change and with that comes the future of our finances. Let's not forget that.

 

[4shotB]

The problem we face is that we are not dealing with the issues from a position of strength. Tech is a special place to a unique set of people. Unfortunately we are not in the majority of sports fans. Far to many people who have never found Athens on a Georgia map are devoted Bulldog fans. That's not likely to change and with that comes the future of our finances. Let's not forget that.

OTOH, I have been disappointed over the years as we have said that we are specialists at facing and solving tough problems as engineers and management grads. But the school (more specifically the GTAA) has consistently failed to practice what we preach. Outside of Dr. Rice, we seem to have been lead by an unforgettable progression of administrators and bureaucrats. I am hoping that TStan proves to be the type of leader that our school has produced in so many other fields.

 

[orientalnc]

OTOH, I have been disappointed over the years as we have said that we are specialists at facing and solving tough problems as engineers and management grads. But the school (more specifically the GTAA) has consistently failed to practice what we preach. Outside of Dr. Rice, we seem to have been lead by an unforgettable progression of administrators and bureaucrats. I am hoping that TStan proves to be the type of leader that our school has produced in so many other fields.

I reluctantly agree. I wish it were not so and also hope you are correct re TStan.

 

[Technut1990]

I am confused by that analogy. Are you comparing Clemson fans to staying in the plane for not wanting to financially support GT, or are you comparing GT fans to staying in the plane while waiting for Clemson to come and save them?

GT fans should not be waiting for socialism to help the athletic department. Get season tickets. Get extra tickets. Donate to the AT fund. Buy merchandise. If GT fans do those things, there will be no need to wait for sports socialism.

isn’t all of college football involved in socialist policy ? The ACC distributes 32 million per year to every team based on a collective agreement that is only appealing to TV because of 3 teams. The GORs agreements are a capitulation of individual school property rights collectively pooled for the purpose of 1) soliciting big TV contracts and 2) distributing that money equally to all schools in their respective conferences, including those schools who bring the dreaded “nothing to the table”. If you did your research, which you are good at, you would find that what brought up the value of the BIG 10 was sharing revenue, in particular gate and concession revenue. Sharing made the bottom teams stronger which reaped value when TV deals were negotiated. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan gave up around 1.2 million each to the lower schools and it helped them improve facilities, hire coaches and recruiting staff .

what I’m saying is that for a lot of people there is literally no need for a parachute because you will never take the leap from the comfort of the plane. Meaning you will simply die in the crash, by the stubborn need to insist the plane isn’t really going down.

Currently The SEC pulls in about twice as much per team than the ACC in TV deals, when they renew the contract some estimate it will bring up to 5 times more than what they are getting now, the low end estimate is 3 times the current rate. The Big 10 pays out even higher right now and is expected to triple its per team rate when it renews. Meantime The ACC will be locked where they are for 15 more years, do the math. The plane we are in is crashing !

10 years from now Georgia will be getting up to 150 million a year in TV money alone, (100 million if the deal just doubles), the ACC powerhouse, Clemson will still be getting 32 million, for 5 more years thereafter. Even Clemson cannot compete against that. If the ACC and y’all, insist that no team is good enough ( when there are no other power houses to solicit) Clemson, Florida St and perhaps NC will bolt to the Big 10 or SEC. Both conferences will have the money to help with the smaller buy outs that will be required at that point and then The ACC is dead. You guys will be found belted in that preverbial plane because you refuse to acknowledge it was crashing. Your tombstones will read “West Virginia just didn’t bring enough and whose Baylor” or “We were comfortable waiting in our seats”. That’s what I mean about some people don’t need parachutes.

and BTW when you say buy season tickets, get more merchandise, contribute more, that’s exactly what would happen to the conference if we had more fans, which are brought by admitting bigger schools.

 

[Technut1990]

@forensicbuzz

More fans equals more money, you can’t even factually say that’s not true.

your response to gate sharing demonstrates my exact point, small thinking. You focus on the ACC and what it doesn't do. I focus on changing what hasn’t worked. Revenue and gate sharing has been part of the BIg 10 model for 2 decades, it could be part of The ACC model. Once again https://www.athleticbusiness.com/mo...ique-football-gate-revenue-sharing-works.html

”we would also be full of also rans “ Do you mean like Wake, Duke, Syracuse, NC State and BC ? We've got also rans covered and I wasn’t even commissioner. BTW we don’t have a commissioner with a proven track record, he’s never been a commissioner. I hope you are right in his abilities but he ain’t “proven“ yet

reality is what you make of it, if your response to The SEC being billions ahead in 10 years is to argue against our only path to change, your reality will be a dead ACC. Just keep waiting on ND.

and yes I was having fun with this but you are right no progressive thinking will occur because people in power, thinking lIke you, say it won’t.

 

[RonJohn]

Currently The SEC pulls in about twice as much per team than the ACC in TV deals, when they renew the contract some estimate it will bring up to 5 times more than what they are getting now, the low end estimate is 3 times the current rate. The Big 10 pays out even higher right now and is expected to triple its per team rate when it renews. Meantime The ACC will be locked where they are for 15 more years, do the math. The plane we are in is crashing !

10 years from now Georgia will be getting up to 150 million a year in TV money alone, (100 million if the deal just doubles), the ACC powerhouse, Clemson will still be getting 32 million, for 5 more years thereafter. Even Clemson cannot compete against that. If the ACC and y’all, insist that no team is good enough ( when there are no other power houses to solicit) Clemson, Florida St and perhaps NC will bolt to the Big 10 or SEC. Both conferences will have the money to help with the smaller buy outs that will be required at that point and then The ACC is dead. You guys will be found belted in that preverbial plane because you refuse to acknowledge it was crashing. Your tombstones will read “West Virginia just didn’t bring enough and whose Baylor” or “We were comfortable waiting in our seats”. That’s what I mean about some people don’t need parachutes.

I have not argued that the ACC should just do nothing forever. Adding WVU right now will not add significant money to the ACC TV contract. Because of that, adding WVU right now, will REDUCE the money distributed by the ACC to every team. The gap will get bigger, not smaller. You seem to believe that the choices are either add WVU within a few weeks, or do nothing for 15 years. Many people have pointed out reasons not to add WVU, but I haven't seen one single person who has said not to add WVU because the ACC should sit still for 15 more years.

You are stuck on trying to catch up with the SEC by playing their game. No school that the ACC will add can match the SEC's TX, OKlahoma addition. ND, Penn State would probably match, but I do not see that happening. Why should the ACC be limited to doing nothing or adding some desperation teams? If the SEC is trying to take over all of P5 football, then the other P5 conferences should work together to prevent that. You say that not adding teams is being "comfortable waiting in our seats". I say that adding WVU at the moment is exactly the same thing. It won't prevent the SEC from having a larger media contract. It won't prevent Clemson from noticing the money discrepancy. It won't prevent the SEC from trying to poach teams from the ACC. Your plan of desperation moves would put the ACC in the exact same "comfortable waiting in our seats" situation. Don't play the SEC's game, take a fight directly to them instead.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

WVU and Baylor are going to jump the ACC from $32M to around $100-$150M a year in media money? Holy crap that's funny.

 

[orientalnc]

I like Mark Packer's comment that winning games against SEC teams is clearest path to a more equal future. If the ACC is able to convince ND to join 100%, the choice of 16th team is not as important. It could still be WVU or UCF and the conference would be OK because having ND would be the thing that drove the decision. But the ACC needs to make whatever expansion decision from a position of strength. Having ND as a full member would give the conference the bargaining strength it lacks right now. But winning games vs. the SEC can begin this season.

 

[RonJohn]

I like Mark Packer's comment that winning games against SEC teams is clearest path to a more equal future. If the ACC is able to convince ND to join 100%, the choice of 16th team is not as important. It could still be WVU or UCF and the conference would be OK because having ND would be the thing that drove the decision. But the ACC needs to make whatever expansion decision from a position of strength. Having ND as a full member would give the conference the bargaining strength it lacks right now. But winning games vs. the SEC can begin this season.

I don't think that would be enough. In 2016, the ACC won three of the four rivalry weekend games. It was explained away by ESPN (who Packer works for) as the ACC playing against the SEC East, not against the SEC, and since everybody knew that the SEC East was the lesser division, those wins didn't say anything about conference comparisons. In 2008 Wake Forest beat Ole Miss. That was explained away as an ACC team beating a bottom feeder SEC team, so it didn't say anything about conference comparisons. I recall commentators actually making comments about ACC teams being afraid to play the "real" SEC teams. Then 3 weeks later Ole Miss beat #4 Florida. The same commentators declared that this was evidence of the total strength of the SEC. Even the lesser teams in the SEC are extremely close to top ten level football teams. (The WF game from only 21 days before was totally ignored at that point)

Sports commentators say whatever they want to say, and logical reasoning has absolutely nothing to do with it. Look at the actual ACC-vs-SEC records for the last few years:

2014	5-3
2015	4-6
2016	10-4
2017	5-7
2018	4-6
2019	4-8

It is usually close to 50%. In 2019, the SEC won a large percentage, but in 2016 the ACC won a large percentage. Looking at actual numbers, the SEC does not dominate the ACC in the way that the commentators currently describe. Even if the numbers reverse and the average is ACC 6 to SEC 4, it will not change the storyline.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I like Mark Packer's comment that winning games against SEC teams is clearest path to a more equal future. If the ACC is able to convince ND to join 100%, the choice of 16th team is not as important. It could still be WVU or UCF and the conference would be OK because having ND would be the thing that drove the decision. But the ACC needs to make whatever expansion decision from a position of strength. Having ND as a full member would give the conference the bargaining strength it lacks right now. But winning games vs. the SEC can begin this season.

You and RonJohn continue to make good sense, in my opinion. Right now the ACC is in a weak bargaining position. Adding WV right now does not give us a stronger bargaining position. It simply gives us less payout per team while we await a new negotiating position / bargaining time in a few years.

Right now the SEC could afford to add anyone they wanted as they await a new bargaining time. No individual team in the SEC is going to “suffer” as they await a new contract. Note they could have afforded to add anyone but they did not choose to add just anyone. They chose to add two heavy weights that will blow the negotiating time with ESPN (or whoever-let the bidding wars begin) out of the water because in terms of bringing money to the table they are bringing the #1 and #8 teams in the country.

If the ACC has anyone who could work some business / negotiating magic we could demonstrate how bringing our own two financial juggernauts to the table (#3 Penn State and “estimated” top 20 Notre Dame) would make an ACC package competitive with anyone. I realize that this is a very long shot at best but if the ACC fails to respond in a big way they are relegating themselves to less and less money no matter how many smaller brand programs they add.

 

[MWBATL]

I don't think that would be enough. In 2016, the ACC won three of the four rivalry weekend games. It was explained away by ESPN (who Packer works for) as the ACC playing against the SEC East, not against the SEC, and since everybody knew that the SEC East was the lesser division, those wins didn't say anything about conference comparisons. In 2008 Wake Forest beat Ole Miss. That was explained away as an ACC team beating a bottom feeder SEC team, so it didn't say anything about conference comparisons. I recall commentators actually making comments about ACC teams being afraid to play the "real" SEC teams. Then 3 weeks later Ole Miss beat #4 Florida. The same commentators declared that this was evidence of the total strength of the SEC. Even the lesser teams in the SEC are extremely close to top ten level football teams. (The WF game from only 21 days before was totally ignored at that point)

Sports commentators say whatever they want to say, and logical reasoning has absolutely nothing to do with it. Look at the actual ACC-vs-SEC records for the last few years:

2014	5-3
2015	4-6
2016	10-4
2017	5-7
2018	4-6
2019	4-8

It is usually close to 50%. In 2019, the SEC won a large percentage, but in 2016 the ACC won a large percentage. Looking at actual numbers, the SEC does not dominate the ACC in the way that the commentators currently describe. Even if the numbers reverse and the average is ACC 6 to SEC 4, it will not change the storyline.

RonJohn is exactly right and this has always been the case and always be the case going forward. Number of first round draft picks, players on NFL rosters, comparative W-L records....none of the "facts" matter to ESPN, who wants to hype the SEC into the money making machine of GOAT of college football.

 

[MWBATL]

If the ACC has anyone who could work some business / negotiating magic we could demonstrate how bringing our own two financial juggernauts to the table (#3 Penn State and “estimated” top 20 Notre Dame) would make an ACC package competitive with anyone. I realize that this is a very long shot at best but if the ACC fails to respond in a big way they are relegating themselves to less and less money no matter how many smaller brand programs they add.

This. Exactly this. Or we bolt to the Big Ten.

And if we fail to do this, we risk becoming like Tulane.