Expansion Talk 2021

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

I believe the hope here is that ESPN will balk at paying for the huge TV contract without Clemson and FSU, thereby pushing other schools to jump ship. If enough leave the ACC then GOR probably falls apart. This is precisely the claim the Big 12 commissioner made last week about ESPN and the AAC.

Where is ESPN going to push 10-12 ACC schools, or whatever the number is to break the GOR agreements? They are either going to the SEC, the B1G, or not giving up the GOR.

 

[WreckinGT]

Not short sighted. Decreased revenue results in a decreased product on the field. Increased revenue, with corresponding worthy hires, increases the on field product. The bottom line always had to be the focus. Big time college football use big business, like it or not.

It can be both at the same time. It is not short sighted for any particular program to put themselves in the best position possible. However, it's hard to argue that the direction things are going will not lead to a decline in interest in the sport which will obviously lead to decreased revenue overall in the long run.

 

[MWBATL]

You would be correct if this is a formal process. I’m thinking this is something different -a back channel attempt to get SEC to make a public overture to Clemson.

But to be fair, I am rumor mongering.

I think we are all aware the DRad came to us from his stint at...LSU. I am sure he still has plenty of contacts within the SEC.

 

[OldMan]

This is an interesting topic for speculation.

I see the three strongest conferences are the SEC, the B1G, and the Pac-12 (for geographic reasons). No one will successfully raid teams from those three. So, the ACC and Big 12 are the at risk groups. If the ACC can get ND to join 100% the ACC is solid even if not as strong as the other three. Without ND it could fall apart.

If consolidation happens, and I have my doubts, I think Texas joins A&M in the SEC along with Oklahoma and Okla State. The 4th team might be Baylor. Those are the strongest ties in the Big 12. Kansas, KSU, Iowa St, etc would be out begging. Kansas might join the Big East for basketball.

If the ACC can keep ND (maybe this round of consolidation will change minds in South Bend) I think the ACC adds West Virginia, Cincinnati, UCF, and maybe UConn (the 4th school is a huge question mark for me). It will not be ECU or App State.

If ND decides to remain independent (or to join the B1G), the ACC could fall apart. Clemson, and FSU could leave. Maybe Pitt and VT would join the Big 12 along with rival WV.

But, a huge question is whether a conference with more than 16 teams is competitively viable.

 

[Pointer]

Rumors in the last 24 hours that Dabo is secretly petitioning the SEC to accept Clemson. I think everyone on this thread expects the SEC to go after Clemson and FSU.

But if there’s any truth to the rumors and our worst fears come true, then seeing WV as our salvation looks even more futile.

Wish I knew what Tech is doing / thinking behind the scenes.

Clemson currently would be a pretty big hit. FSU? Much less so, but still wouldn't be great.

People actually connected to both programs have checked and said this is no way true however. They also say the source who first said this is not reliable and should be reason for skepticism.

Sounds like click bait.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Clemson currently would be a pretty big hit. FSU? Much less so, but still wouldn't be great.

People actually connected to both programs have checked and said this is no way true however. They also say the source who first said this is not reliable and should be reason for skepticism.

Sounds like click bait.

Thank you. I normally take everything on the internet with a grain of salt but I’m kind of on edge with the SEC move, what the next domino is to fall, and what this means to an expanded playoff.

I need to walk away from the ledge.

 

[g0lftime]

I just dont see the motive to play in the SEC and risk a championship path to the playoff. Texas is going to be a median team and OU will struggle to win 10 games. some of the games will be interesting matchups to watch at first but then the newnest where's off and only the top games are interesting to watch. the only motivation I can see is a long term vision to get the P5 teams out from under THE NCAA.

 

[ChicagobasedJacket]

I just dont see the motive to play in the SEC and risk a championship path to the playoff. Texas is going to be a median team and OU will struggle to win 10 games. some of the games will be interesting matchups to watch at first but then the newnest where's off and only the top games are interesting to watch. the only motivation I can see is a long term vision to get the P5 teams out from under THE NCAA.

Money is the motive along with improved recruiting since both OU and texas look at Missouri and Texas A&M whose recruiting improved after joining the conference. However, OU is at risk of going the Nebraska, Missouri, or Miami route after joining the SEC. Perennially dominating a conference to never winning their new conference.

 

[UgaBlows]

I just dont see the motive to play in the SEC and risk a championship path to the playoff. Texas is going to be a median team and OU will struggle to win 10 games. some of the games will be interesting matchups to watch at first but then the newnest where's off and only the top games are interesting to watch. the only motivation I can see is a long term vision to get the P5 teams out from under THE NCAA.

OU and TX are going to struggle until they learn how to play some danged defense

 

[RonJohn]

OU and TX are going to struggle until they learn how to play some danged defense

Are they going to struggle as much as A&M and Missouri struggled when they entered the SEC? If they struggle at that same exact level, they will be doing just fine.

 

[Techster]

I don't know what will happen in the future. However, if the SEC wants to separate, they will need more teams. They have teams in the Southeast and the Southwest. Will a league made up of only SE and SW teams appeal to the entire country? They will need teams from the NE, Midwest, Northwest, Mid-Atlantic, West, and other parts of the Southwest. The SEC would have to add some of those regions before attempting to separate.

If they attempt to form their own league with 16, or 20, or 24 teams mostly from the Southern USA, the rest of the NCAA might just decide to not allow games against the new league and keep chugging along. Is a football fan in Los Angeles going to watch USC vs Oregon or Alabama vs Florida? Will there be as much excitement about an 8 out of 24 team SEC playoff when they have all played a lot of interconnecting games during the season? MLB intraleague play is no interesting any more. There is no novelty in watching the All-Star Game or the World Series. Currently, there is argument during the season about whether teams like Ohio State or Oklahoma or Alabama are better. The CFP is interesting in part because it puts together teams from different regions who play different styles against different competition. No matter what people in the Southeast think about the SEC, a league of mainly SE teams with a few SW teams will not be very appealing to the rest of the country.

I am not saying that a group can't split from the NCAA and be successful. I am not saying that the SEC cannot be the group to do it. What I am saying is that I don't believe SEC currently cannot accomplish that. They will need more teams to accomplish it, and not solely based on football success. (They would need a presence in the NE, and there aren't any football powerhouses there.)

There are media rumors that they have approached Michigan and Ohio State. FSU and Clemson are already known to have been approached. Everyone knows the PAC12 schools are not happy with their current media contract, and that precipitated the PAC12 pushing the commissioner out for a new one...which means there's a BUNCH of "tier 1 brand" type schools (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Arizona) that may be willing to jump on whatever the SEC has planned. The schools we've heard from are for the most part only the schools being reported. You have to imagine how many schools have had discussions we don't even know about.

The reality is, NIL is changing the face of the NCAA and the SEC is the only conference willing to break the current model to adapt. Conferences and schools like GT who are reactive and not proactive are going to find themselves going the way of Ivy League schools. I would go so far as to say the SEC might night even be known as the "SEC" after too much longer because they want to expand their appeal nationally.

If you want to know why it's becoming more and more feasible, look at this:

NFL finalizes new 11-year media rights deal, Amazon gets exclusive Thursday Night rights

The new agreement runs through 2033 and will feature two Super Bowls returning to Disney's ABC network channel.

www.cnbc.com

The NFL represents 22 states. How many states have tier one brand programs? More than the NFL, and the NFL only represents one sport. Amazon is paying 1 BILLION just for Thursday night games. How much do you think they'll pay for a package of nationwide games in football/basketball/baseball? People may be cord cutting, but there is more content than ever before because of streaming. BTW, it's not just TVs that are streaming, but phones, computers, ipads/tablets, etc.

Who do you think is more popular in Alabama...an NFL team or the 'Bama Crimson Tide/Auburn Tigers or some NFL team? Do you think the Atlanta Falcons are more popular than UGA? Do you think the Tennessee Titans are more popular than Volunteers? College football is much more popular in the South and Southwest, and in some parts of the Midwest. The rest of the country? Guess what? College football doesn't need to be as popular as the NFL, nor does college sports need to be as popular as pro sports overall because college sports pulls in some amazing numbers streaming services and media companies would kill for:

2019-20 Report: Amazing College Football Popularity Highlighted by Impressive Ratings and Attendance Data - National Football Foundation

IRVING, Texas (May 27, 2020) – The National Football Foundation (NFF) & College Hall of Fame highlighted today numerous powerful facts from the 2019-20 college football

footballfoundation.org

That's just college football.

NFL Sunday ticket, which is pro football only, cost about $300 a season. You don't think college sports fans won't pay half, if not the same amount, to watch their college teams in football/basketball/baseball/hockey/etc? Look at the numbers from 2019-2020:

• The 392 regular season telecasts on ABC, the Big Ten Network, BTN, CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNEWS, ESPNU, FOX, FS1, NBC and the NFL Network during the 2019season averaged 1,839,000 viewers per game (a 2% increase from 2018) while reaching more than 145 million unique fans†
• The 38 postseason bowl games on ABC, CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, FOX and FS1 at the conclusion of the 2019-20 season averaged 5,037,000 viewers per game (a 1% increase from last season) while reaching 90 million unique fans† on television.
• Top Ten for viewership (P2+) also included LSU-Georgia (Dec. 7 on CBS) with 13,703,000; Ohio State-Wisconsin (Dec. 7 on FOX) with 13,642,000; Ohio State-Michigan (Nov. 30 on FOX) with 12,501,000; Alabama-Auburn (Nov. 30 on CBS) with 11,505,000; Penn State-Ohio State (Nov. 23 on FOX) with 9,425,000; Notre Dame-Georgia (Sept. 21 on CBS) with 9,287,000; Baylor-Oklahoma (Dec. 7 on ABC) with 8,700,000; LSU-Texas (Sept. 7 on ABC) with 8,633,000; and Army-Navy (Dec. 14 on CBS) with 7,716,000 viewers.
• The top five games all eclipsed the 10 million viewer mark and all of the top 12 exceeded seven million viewers each. A total of 33 regular season games had more than five million viewers, seven more than the 2018 season.

Pay attention to the "Top Ten Viewership" category because that's what the SEC and possibly the B1G are building up to become: Weekly matchups of top tier teams from around the country. Again, keep in mind, we're only talking about college football. By comparison, NFL during that same time averaged 14.9 million viewers per game. Again, keep in mind, the college game doesn't need to beat the NFL, they just need comparable numbers to keep subscription number strong for streaming services.

People who still think in terms of the "old model" are completely missing the point. Do you know why "2nd tier" teams are still in play? Because they are still part of the content and tier 1 teams still need to fill their schedules. At some point, the bulk of college money will be made from streaming dominant services, and traditional media will be secondary. It looks like the SEC is gearing up for that and every other conference is still a step behind.

 

[Pointer]

There are media rumors that they have approached Michigan and Ohio State. FSU and Clemson are already known to have been approached. Everyone knows the PAC12 schools are not happy with their current media contract, and that precipitated the PAC12 pushing the commissioner out for a new one...which means there's a BUNCH of "tier 1 brand" type schools (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Arizona) that may be willing to jump on whatever the SEC has planned. The schools we've heard from are for the most part only the schools being reported. You have to imagine how many schools have had discussions we don't even know about.

The reality is, NIL is changing the face of the NCAA and the SEC is the only conference willing to break the current model to adapt. Conferences and schools like GT who are reactive and not proactive are going to find themselves going the way of Ivy League schools. I would go so far as to say the SEC might night even be known as the "SEC" after too much longer because they want to expand their appeal nationally.

If you want to know why it's becoming more and more feasible, look at this:

NFL finalizes new 11-year media rights deal, Amazon gets exclusive Thursday Night rights

The new agreement runs through 2033 and will feature two Super Bowls returning to Disney's ABC network channel.

www.cnbc.com

The NFL represents 22 states. How many states have tier one brand programs? More than the NFL, and the NFL only represents one sport. Amazon is paying 1 BILLION just for Thursday night games. How much do you think they'll pay for a package of nationwide games in football/basketball/baseball? People may be cord cutting, but there is more content than ever before because of streaming. BTW, it's not just TVs that are streaming, but phones, computers, ipads/tablets, etc.

Who do you think is more popular in Alabama...an NFL team or the 'Bama Crimson Tide/Auburn Tigers or some NFL team? Do you think the Atlanta Falcons are more popular than UGA? Do you think the Tennessee Titans are more popular than Volunteers? College football is much more popular in the South and Southwest, and in some parts of the Midwest. The rest of the country? Guess what? College football doesn't need to be as popular as the NFL, nor does college sports need to be as popular as pro sports overall because college sports pulls in some amazing numbers streaming services and media companies would kill for:

2019-20 Report: Amazing College Football Popularity Highlighted by Impressive Ratings and Attendance Data - National Football Foundation

IRVING, Texas (May 27, 2020) – The National Football Foundation (NFF) & College Hall of Fame highlighted today numerous powerful facts from the 2019-20 college football

footballfoundation.org

That's just college football.

NFL Sunday ticket, which is pro football only, cost about $300 a season. You don't think college sports fans won't pay half, if not the same amount, to watch their college teams in football/basketball/baseball/hockey/etc? Look at the numbers from 2019-2020:

• The 392 regular season telecasts on ABC, the Big Ten Network, BTN, CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNEWS, ESPNU, FOX, FS1, NBC and the NFL Network during the 2019season averaged 1,839,000 viewers per game (a 2% increase from 2018) while reaching more than 145 million unique fans†
• The 38 postseason bowl games on ABC, CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, FOX and FS1 at the conclusion of the 2019-20 season averaged 5,037,000 viewers per game (a 1% increase from last season) while reaching 90 million unique fans† on television.
• Top Ten for viewership (P2+) also included LSU-Georgia (Dec. 7 on CBS) with 13,703,000; Ohio State-Wisconsin (Dec. 7 on FOX) with 13,642,000; Ohio State-Michigan (Nov. 30 on FOX) with 12,501,000; Alabama-Auburn (Nov. 30 on CBS) with 11,505,000; Penn State-Ohio State (Nov. 23 on FOX) with 9,425,000; Notre Dame-Georgia (Sept. 21 on CBS) with 9,287,000; Baylor-Oklahoma (Dec. 7 on ABC) with 8,700,000; LSU-Texas (Sept. 7 on ABC) with 8,633,000; and Army-Navy (Dec. 14 on CBS) with 7,716,000 viewers.
• The top five games all eclipsed the 10 million viewer mark and all of the top 12 exceeded seven million viewers each. A total of 33 regular season games had more than five million viewers, seven more than the 2018 season.

Pay attention to the "Top Ten Viewership" category because that's what the SEC and possibly the B1G are building up to become: Weekly matchups of top tier teams from around the country. Again, keep in mind, we're only talking about college football. By comparison, NFL during that same time averaged 14.9 million viewers per game. Again, keep in mind, the college game doesn't need to beat the NFL, they just need comparable numbers to keep subscription number strong for streaming services.

People who still think in terms of the "old model" are completely missing the point. Do you know why "2nd tier" teams are still in play? Because they are still part of the content and tier 1 teams still need to fill their schedules. At some point, the bulk of college money will be made from streaming dominant services, and traditional media will be secondary. It looks like the SEC is gearing up for that and every other conference is still a step behind.

The NFL has the browns, jets, bills, colts, lions... Everybody can't be winners every season.

Just don't expand playoffs, and allot of this garbage will fix itself in the short-term. Either way I hope something better then the NCAA comes of all of this.

 

[WreckinGT]

There are media rumors that they have approached Michigan and Ohio State. FSU and Clemson are already known to have been approached. Everyone knows the PAC12 schools are not happy with their current media contract, and that precipitated the PAC12 pushing the commissioner out for a new one...which means there's a BUNCH of "tier 1 brand" type schools (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Arizona) that may be willing to jump on whatever the SEC has planned. The schools we've heard from are for the most part only the schools being reported. You have to imagine how many schools have had discussions we don't even know about.

The reality is, NIL is changing the face of the NCAA and the SEC is the only conference willing to break the current model to adapt. Conferences and schools like GT who are reactive and not proactive are going to find themselves going the way of Ivy League schools. I would go so far as to say the SEC might night even be known as the "SEC" after too much longer because they want to expand their appeal nationally.

If you want to know why it's becoming more and more feasible, look at this:

NFL finalizes new 11-year media rights deal, Amazon gets exclusive Thursday Night rights

The new agreement runs through 2033 and will feature two Super Bowls returning to Disney's ABC network channel.

www.cnbc.com

The NFL represents 22 states. How many states have tier one brand programs? More than the NFL, and the NFL only represents one sport. Amazon is paying 1 BILLION just for Thursday night games. How much do you think they'll pay for a package of nationwide games in football/basketball/baseball? People may be cord cutting, but there is more content than ever before because of streaming. BTW, it's not just TVs that are streaming, but phones, computers, ipads/tablets, etc.

Who do you think is more popular in Alabama...an NFL team or the 'Bama Crimson Tide/Auburn Tigers or some NFL team? Do you think the Atlanta Falcons are more popular than UGA? Do you think the Tennessee Titans are more popular than Volunteers? College football is much more popular in the South and Southwest, and in some parts of the Midwest. The rest of the country? Guess what? College football doesn't need to be as popular as the NFL, nor does college sports need to be as popular as pro sports overall because college sports pulls in some amazing numbers streaming services and media companies would kill for:

2019-20 Report: Amazing College Football Popularity Highlighted by Impressive Ratings and Attendance Data - National Football Foundation

IRVING, Texas (May 27, 2020) – The National Football Foundation (NFF) & College Hall of Fame highlighted today numerous powerful facts from the 2019-20 college football

footballfoundation.org

That's just college football.

NFL Sunday ticket, which is pro football only, cost about $300 a season. You don't think college sports fans won't pay half, if not the same amount, to watch their college teams in football/basketball/baseball/hockey/etc? Look at the numbers from 2019-2020:

• The 392 regular season telecasts on ABC, the Big Ten Network, BTN, CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNEWS, ESPNU, FOX, FS1, NBC and the NFL Network during the 2019season averaged 1,839,000 viewers per game (a 2% increase from 2018) while reaching more than 145 million unique fans†
• The 38 postseason bowl games on ABC, CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, FOX and FS1 at the conclusion of the 2019-20 season averaged 5,037,000 viewers per game (a 1% increase from last season) while reaching 90 million unique fans† on television.
• Top Ten for viewership (P2+) also included LSU-Georgia (Dec. 7 on CBS) with 13,703,000; Ohio State-Wisconsin (Dec. 7 on FOX) with 13,642,000; Ohio State-Michigan (Nov. 30 on FOX) with 12,501,000; Alabama-Auburn (Nov. 30 on CBS) with 11,505,000; Penn State-Ohio State (Nov. 23 on FOX) with 9,425,000; Notre Dame-Georgia (Sept. 21 on CBS) with 9,287,000; Baylor-Oklahoma (Dec. 7 on ABC) with 8,700,000; LSU-Texas (Sept. 7 on ABC) with 8,633,000; and Army-Navy (Dec. 14 on CBS) with 7,716,000 viewers.
• The top five games all eclipsed the 10 million viewer mark and all of the top 12 exceeded seven million viewers each. A total of 33 regular season games had more than five million viewers, seven more than the 2018 season.

Pay attention to the "Top Ten Viewership" category because that's what the SEC and possibly the B1G are building up to become: Weekly matchups of top tier teams from around the country. Again, keep in mind, we're only talking about college football. By comparison, NFL during that same time averaged 14.9 million viewers per game. Again, keep in mind, the college game doesn't need to beat the NFL, they just need comparable numbers to keep subscription number strong for streaming services.

People who still think in terms of the "old model" are completely missing the point. Do you know why "2nd tier" teams are still in play? Because they are still part of the content and tier 1 teams still need to fill their schedules. At some point, the bulk of college money will be made from streaming dominant services, and traditional media will be secondary. It looks like the SEC is gearing up for that and every other conference is still a step behind.

Do you think it would also be financially beneficial for the NFL to move away from network TV to a stand alone streaming service for games with a high price tag?

 

[MidtownJacket]

Still think this whole thing blows up when you add in non revenue sports. I just don’t get how these schools are going to swallow the charter flights for their baseball/softball/swimming/volleyball etc

 

[Buzztheirazz]

That’s another thing that helps us long term. ATL is much easier and cheaper to travel to than let’s say Blacksburg or Raleigh or Athens or Clemson. We have a major airport 20 minutes from Campus that flies to 90% of these smaller campuses. We can get to aLmost ANYWHERE in the country on a direct flight.

If for some reason the ACC implodes, which I don’t think it will for awhile, the Big10 would love to have this market and easy access to travel for games.

 

[DaltonJacket]

The NFL has the browns, jets, bills, colts, lions... Everybody can't be winners every season.

Just don't expand playoffs, and allot of this garbage will fix itself in the short-term. Either way I hope something better then the NCAA comes of all of this.

Ok, but the Browns and Bills are two of the best in the league/favorites this upcoming season. In the NFL if the bottom feeders draft well for a few years they rise to the top. That opportunity doesn’t exist in cfb. Vanderbilt will never have the opportunity to rise to the top of the SEC. Completely different games!

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Ok, but the Browns and Bills are two of the best in the league/favorites this upcoming season. In the NFL if the bottom feeders draft well for a few years they rise to the top. That opportunity doesn’t exist in cfb. Vanderbilt will never have the opportunity to rise to the top of the SEC. Completely different games!

This is why I floated a thought experiment that got me instantly vilified and skewered. With NIL blowing up everything, Conferences and regional rivalries meaning less and less, and money and semi-pro status meaning more and more, why not cap how many scholarships a school can give to consensus four and five star athletes? The rationale is simply. Pro athletes only have so much room to negotiate which team they can play for or whether than can go to a playoff team. And since college is less and less about players wanting to go to where dear old mom graduated and less about a particular degree program, and more about trying to go play professionally, why not create a little more parity the way the pros do?

 

[orientalnc]

This is why I floated a thought experiment that got me instantly vilified and skewered. With NIL blowing up everything, Conferences and regional rivalries meaning less and less, and money and semi-pro status meaning more and more, why not cap how many scholarships a school can give to consensus four and five star athletes? The rationale is simply. Pro athletes only have so much room to negotiate which team they can play for or whether than can go to a playoff team. And since college is less and less about players wanting to go to where dear old mom graduated and less about a particular degree program, and more about trying to go play professionally, why not create a little more parity the way the pros do?

OK. Which schools/teams would be in this parity group? Just the P5 conferences? Or, would you include G5 teams as well? Would Bama agree to any parity plan that allowed UAB to have an equal shot at a 5* player at a Birmingham high school? I doubt it.

 

[slugboy]

This is why I floated a thought experiment that got me instantly vilified and skewered. With NIL blowing up everything, Conferences and regional rivalries meaning less and less, and money and semi-pro status meaning more and more, why not cap how many scholarships a school can give to consensus four and five star athletes? The rationale is simply. Pro athletes only have so much room to negotiate which team they can play for or whether than can go to a playoff team. And since college is less and less about players wanting to go to where dear old mom graduated and less about a particular degree program, and more about trying to go play professionally, why not create a little more parity the way the pros do?

A G-league could do something like that. I don’t see how colleges could have the equivalent of a draft with college admissions in the mix.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

A G-league could do something like that. I don’t see how colleges could have the equivalent of a draft with college admissions in the mix.

I understand. My point is that colleges have quotas for virtually every conceivable category of student (I was on the President’s cabinet at a small college, so trust me). Yet when it comes to college football we want to “draft” as many semi-pros as possible and then say it’s all about not limiting college admission (and having our cake and eating it too). Even med schools tell students “we’ve met our quota for OBGYN this year but you could enter our gerontology program.”

I guess my frustration, whether my idea is totally stupid or not, is that half the time we act like connection to the learning environment is paramount and other times we say it’s really about money and winning. As the college landscape transitions away from amateurism it might be time to try one more time to “balance” entering classes of football players the way we balance classes for all other students.