Expansion Talk 2021

RonJohn

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3,296
Reminiscent of the TA&M plan… plausible at the least.

It’s curious to me the emphasis on TV Market as a geographic locale vs the “brand” of the team. Surely UAuburn’s brand exceeds State of Alabama (obviously, it’s in GA big time). Conversely, while Tech resides in Atlanta I don’t necessarily think that Tech brings in that much of the city if that’s the talking point?
The geographical locale is in relation to TV revenue. The SEC network and the ACC network charge more for carriage in geographical areas covered by the conference. The numbers are not public, but I have heard that the SEC Network charges something like $1.50 per cable subscriber in the SEC areas. They charge something like 25-40 cents in the other areas. I am guessing when they added TA&M, the SEC Network got the additional dollar in the Houston (#8) and Dallas (#5) markets. That is more tv subscribers (so more money) than any other market in the SEC. The largest before that was Atlanta (#7 now has ranged between #7 and #10). If you add a school that does not add more geographical area, then ESPN will not pay more because they are not going to receive more gross income.
 

Northeast Stinger

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5,152
Ok. Hear me out. What if the ACC went after Auburn. This could work for everyone. On a macro scale it would bring more parity across conferences but also, it could allow Auburn to get out from under the Alabama shadow. If they’re good enough, they could be competing for a conference champ every year, keep Bama as an ACC/SEC match up, and become a focal school instead of the Bama little sibling. Financially this only works if the other school we add is ND. Every conference is looking to add TV markets which the state of Alabama is covered by Bama so the SEC doesn’t lose much. ACC would add Birmingham and Montgomery.
Very creative idea to add The University of Alabama Polytechnical Institute.
 

RonJohn

Helluva Engineer
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3,296
Do Y'all remember history this is the same talk a few years ago before everyone but the SEC signed the GOR.s come back in 4 years and ESPN is not doing the well
ESPN still isn't doing well. It is very possible that they will completely balk at paying more money. I haven't seen numbers lately, but it used to be that more than 80% of ESPN's revenue came from subscriber fees. Cord cutting was decimating their business model. They laid off a lot of people and cut a lot of their expenses, but their largest expense is broadcasting rights fees. I haven't studied what they have been doing for the last couple of years. Maybe they are doing better financially, but I doubt it.
 

GoJacketsInRaleigh

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
388
The geographical locale is in relation to TV revenue. The SEC network and the ACC network charge more for carriage in geographical areas covered by the conference. The numbers are not public, but I have heard that the SEC Network charges something like $1.50 per cable subscriber in the SEC areas. They charge something like 25-40 cents in the other areas. I am guessing when they added TA&M, the SEC Network got the additional dollar in the Houston (#8) and Dallas (#5) markets. That is more tv subscribers (so more money) than any other market in the SEC. The largest before that was Atlanta (#7 now has ranged between #7 and #10). If you add a school that does not add more geographical area, then ESPN will not pay more because they are not going to receive more gross income.
Makes TCU and Houston attractable candidates and why WVU, UCF and Navy aren't really options here. If you expand you need TV markets. Still on a USC/UCLA (LA market) bandwagon lol
 

MusicalBuzz

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
58
The geographical locale is in relation to TV revenue. The SEC network and the ACC network charge more for carriage in geographical areas covered by the conference. The numbers are not public, but I have heard that the SEC Network charges something like $1.50 per cable subscriber in the SEC areas. They charge something like 25-40 cents in the other areas. I am guessing when they added TA&M, the SEC Network got the additional dollar in the Houston (#8) and Dallas (#5) markets. That is more tv subscribers (so more money) than any other market in the SEC. The largest before that was Atlanta (#7 now has ranged between #7 and #10). If you add a school that does not add more geographical area, then ESPN will not pay more because they are not going to receive more gross income.
Well, and very interestingly and important, Comcast hasn’t even picked up the ACC Network. And the conference networks (except for Texas individually?) didn’t come into play until we’ll after the last re-alignment. But the conference networks and ESPN are two different things, no?

ESPN.. they’ve always been the thorn in the side of cable companies (not that I know all the minutia, but I’ve worked for Comcast and Cox last 20 years and I’ve heard the numbers) for a long time, but their numbers aren’t particularly dictated by, say, ACC adding Syracuse because now it’s got the NY State market. And ESPN already a staple of every cable provider it doesn’t bill Comcast Atlanta differently each year because, Syracuse the example again, is in the ACC.
 
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4shotB

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Ok. Hear me out. What if the ACC went after Auburn. This could work for everyone. On a macro scale it would bring more parity across conferences but also, it could allow Auburn to get out from under the Alabama shadow. If they’re good enough, they could be competing for a conference champ every year, keep Bama as an ACC/SEC match up, and become a focal school instead of the Bama little sibling. Financially this only works if the other school we add is ND. Every conference is looking to add TV markets which the state of Alabama is covered by Bama so the SEC doesn’t lose much. ACC would add Birmingham and Montgomery.

While this is an intriguing idea, I have several close friends who are Auburn alums. As much as they hate being the little brother, I just can't see the Auburn fan base getting behind this. Their president and AD would be run out of town...at minimum.
 

MusicalBuzz

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
58
Makes TCU and Houston attractable candidates and why WVU, UCF and Navy aren't really options here. If you expand you need TV markets. Still on a USC/UCLA (LA market) bandwagon lol
It seems to me you’re one of few making sense! At least if “access to TV market“ is the primary consideration.

So I can play that game, too: The school everyone is missing is Temple. We can claim the entire Philly market and put our damn ACC flag on every street corner.. am I’m sure Philly would be like GTFO lol
 

Root4GT

Jolly Good Fellow
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118
Because 15 teams is just the dumbest thing ever.... so on second thought, its exactly what the old ACC would do.

Adding Auburn is very interesting but so is me having a Netflix and chill night with Jennifer Aniston.... just not gonna happen unfortunately.
If you don’t understand NO ONE is leaving the Big10 or SEC you are naive at best. Money rules. 15 teams got 2 teams into the CFP last year for the ACC so even though you think it’s dumb that only because you aren’t really thinking.

there is no need for Divisions in a large Conference as proven last year.
Play 8 or 9 conference games roasting thru all much more frequently.

Only ND brings value. All other teams just take away money from everyone else. Have fun speculating. Auburn, Texas, Penn State- make me laugh at the idiocy of those notions. Maryland, a founding member left for the almighty dollar and are very happy with their financial status. Remember it’s all about money nothing else.
 

RonJohn

Helluva Engineer
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3,296
Well, and very interestingly and important, Comcast hasn’t even picked up the ACC Network. And the conference networks (except for Texas individually?) didn’t come into play until we’ll after the last re-alignment. But the conference networks and ESPN are two different things, no?

ESPN.. they’ve always been the thorn in the side of cable companies (not that I know all the minutia, but I’ve worked for Comcast and Cox last 20 years and I’ve heard the numbers) for a long time, but their numbers aren’t particularly dictated by, say, ACC adding Syracuse because now it’s got the NY State market. And ESPN already a staple of every cable provider it doesn’t Comcast Atlanta differently because, Syracuse the example again, is in the ACC.
We seem to be having the same conversation across threads. I'll just stick in this one.

ESPN owns the ACC Network. ESPN owns the SEC Network. ESPN owned the Big12 Network and still carries their games. ESPN owns the Longhorn Network. The Big10 Network is owned by Fox. The Pac12 network is owned by the Pac12, but is pretty much irrelavent.

ESPN's revenue historically has been by a major part based on subscribers. Revenue from the SEC Network and the ACC Network are based mostly on subscribers. Adding Syracuse added much more revenue than additional ads for having more people watch Auburn would have added to the ACC's TV rights deals. If the business models were based on numbers of viewers and ad revenue, then more interesting teams/games would be important. When the business model is majorly based on how many people have a cable subscription close to a school, it doesn't really matter whether millions in that market watch a game, or only hundreds. ESPN's business model charges every single TV subscriber in the area, not only the ones who watch games.

Cable and satellite companies are losing subscribers, so ESPN's business model will have to change. However, at the current moment, if you want a big TV contract you have to have more TVs that can be charged More money. It doesn't matter if those TVs will watch games or watch sit-coms. They just have to be close enough to the conference in order to charge them subscriber fees.

EDIT: In relation to ESPN not billion Comcast Atlanta differently because Syracuse is in the conference, it wouldn't be Comcast Atlanta differently it would be Comcast in New York.(Once Comcast adds the ACC Network) For the SEC Network, Comcast in Atlanta pays more per subscriber because Atlanta is in the SEC area. SEC Network in NY is much less per subscriber than SEC Network in Atlanta. If the ACC were to add a team in Houston, then every company in Houston that provides the ACC Network will pay more per subscriber for the ACC Network. It won't change what subscribers in Atlanta pay, because they are already in the ACC area.
 
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RonJohn

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3,296
It seems to me you’re one of few making sense! At least if “access to TV market“ is the primary consideration.

So I can play that game, too: The school everyone is missing is Temple. We can claim the entire Philly market and put our damn ACC flag on every street corner.. am I’m sure Philly would be like GTFO lol
I am not sure that ESPN doesn't charge extra for the ACC Network in Philly based on Pittsburg. I suspect they do, but maybe they don't. All of those carriage contracts are confidential, so it is hard to find out.
 

TooTall

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If you don’t understand NO ONE is leaving the Big10 or SEC you are naive at best. Money rules. 15 teams got 2 teams into the CFP last year for the ACC so even though you think it’s dumb that only because you aren’t really thinking.

there is no need for Divisions in a large Conference as proven last year.
Play 8 or 9 conference games roasting thru all much more frequently.

Only ND brings value. All other teams just take away money from everyone else. Have fun speculating. Auburn, Texas, Penn State- make me laugh at the idiocy of those notions. Maryland, a founding member left for the almighty dollar and are very happy with their financial status. Remember it’s all about money nothing else.
You do realize that all this thread is is speculation right? I suggest you take an ambien and get a good night's rest before your blood pressure gets to high.
 

boger2337

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3,062
Idk if anyone has said it. This has me worried about college athletics in general. A lot of programs are going to get lost in this mess.
You hit it dead on the head.
The SEC has reached out to Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, FSU, Miami, Penn State, USC, and Oregon.

They want to drop the NCAA as a whole and have only major programs. Essentially making a semipro league. The rest of the colleges will be left to stay with the NCAA.

I easily see the SEC becoming its own entity and taking 30 programs with them and becoming NFL lite and writing their own rules away from the NCAA.
 

Technut1990

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960
I disagree. Vandy won’t leave because of the money of SEC. If Auburn left, they could bring money with them in their brand. Auburn coming to ACC adds to ACC value. Vandy is just splitting the pie more, Auburn makes a bigger pie.

oh I agree Auburn adds value no doubt about that, I just don’t think they would leave for the same reason UT and Oklahoma are going in. The only reason I’m saying Vandy would leave would be so their football program can breath. Right now if Vandy were in the ACC they would still be a bottom tier conference team but they would be a lot closer to the middle of the ACC than they would SEC.

Who in The SEC is Vandy near on a competitive basis ? It’s gonna get worse for them now. They come into the ACC and year one they are competitive with Duke and Wake with room to improve. The logic being that wins improve attendance and proceeds
 

Technut1990

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960
You hit it dead on the head.
The SEC has reached out to Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, FSU, Miami, Penn State, USC, and Oregon.

They want to drop the NCAA as a whole and have only major programs. Essentially making a semipro league. The rest of the colleges will be left to stay with the NCAA.

I easily see the SEC becoming its own entity and taking 30 programs with them and becoming NFL lite and writing their own rules away from the NCAA.

it’s all about money so if The SEC could convince any other conference they would make more in folding themselves into The SEC they will, that goes for individual schools also.

on a personal “people” type level, it’s just more and more decadence, people will sell their souls for money and they will damn sure sell their schools
 

orientalnc

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Watch Iowa State and Kansas. If they start serious talks with the B1G, the Big 12 is toast. OSU and the remaining Texas schools will try to land in the PAC 12. Poor Kansas State will be the big loser and end up in the AAC.

Edit: This from a recent Ezra Klein essay.

“We are inconsistent creatures who routinely court the catastrophes we most fear. The future is an abstraction and the pleasures of this instant are a siren. That is true with our health and our finances and our loves and so of course it is true with our world.”
 
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