Excellent Article from SBNation

[AE 87]

Thanks, I want to be optimistic. Actually, upon further review, we went 7-7, lost to Middle Tenn and got pounded by the mutts that year. Yeah, we went to Charlotte, but we all know why that was.

So, we were wrong to fire Groh because the problem was new skill guys on offense?

 

[Northeast Stinger]

So, we were wrong to fire Groh because the problem was new skill guys on offense?

Razor sharp you are.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

So, we were wrong to fire Groh because the problem was new skill guys on offense?

Our offense was light years better last season than in '12 and the defense was equally as bad both years. I don't get your point. But hey, I'm jumping up and down that we're replacing virtually our entire skill corps, hoo rah!!!

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Another thing, if we're holding the '12 season's offensive production up as a benchmark for this year, heaven help us. We'd be taking a major step down.

yards/play:
'14: #10
'12: #38

We were significantly better in scoring and ypg, too.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/yards-per-play

 

[AE 87]

Our offense was light years better last season than in '12 and the defense was equally as bad both years. I don't get your point. But hey, I'm jumping up and down that we're replacing virtually our entire skill corps, hoo rah!!!

I really don't understand why this conversation has become so difficult. We were discussing what sort of data we might use to see the impact of so many new skill guys.

I made a comparison to 2012 where we had significant, if not identical, turnover. In response, you referred to our record that year. Within the context of our conversation about replacing skill guys, that response was meaningful only if you blamed our record on the new skill guys. Otherwise, it seemed to me beside the point. So, I asked.

As it turns out, I was wrong about the comparison anyway. I think Sims played Bback in 2011 as well, though the roster I had checked had him still listed as a QB.

Any way, no one has suggested that you should jump up and down. I was just seeing if we could find data in favor or against your concern. I think we agree that we probably won't be as good this year as this past year, but disagree on how concerning we should consider our turnover at skill positions.

 

[AE 87]

Another thing, if we're holding the '12 season's offensive production up as a benchmark for this year, heaven help us. We'd be taking a major step down.

yards/play:
'14: #10
'12: #38

We were significantly better in scoring and ypg, too.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/yards-per-play

No one is or was doing that.

 

[AE 87]

Now, our offense did slide back between 2011 and 2012, from 6.75 ypp to 6.16 ypp, from 2.99 ppd to 2.83 ppd, from OFEI of .400 to .246.

With a better QB and OL, we can slide back and still be good.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Sorry, I thought you were pointing out '12 as an example of overcoming mass attrition from the skill positions.

Fwiw, there's always attrition. Just about every position groups sees it to some degree. We've never seen it to this degree, over half the starting offense is new: RG, both wr's, both Abacks, Bback and most of those guys weren't even in the 2 deep last year.

Like I said earlier, I hope I'm wrong on this. It will give me no satisfaction to be right. Also, I think it will be much more of an issue early in the season. I just hope we can whether the storm recordwise till we can get the thing clicking late.

 

[AE 87]

Sorry, I thought you were pointing out '12 as an example of overcoming mass attrition from the skill positions.

Fwiw, there's always attrition. Just about every position groups sees it to some degree. We've never seen it to this degree, over half the starting offense is new: RG, both wr's, both Abacks, Bback and most of those guys weren't even in the 2 deep last year.

Like I said earlier, I hope I'm wrong on this. It will give me no satisfaction to be right. Also, I think it will be much more of an issue early in the season. I just hope we can whether the storm recordwise till we can get the thing clicking late.

No worries. I have understood your worry or fear or concern or whatever you want to call it. I was just wondering if we could put some numbers on your concern.

You seem to put more weight on this amount of attrition being more of a problem than I. However, it could be that we differ more in baseline than in concrete numbers.

If we hold 2014 as the baseline, than I agree that it will be hard to match 3.5 ppd and 6.75 ypp. However, 2009 was also a good year, and we scored 3.1 ppd and averaged 6.16 ypp (the same as 2012, fwiw).

So, in my mind, given our QB & OL, if we average less than 6.2 ypp and score less than 3.0 ppd for the season than the plug and play theory is disproven.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

No worries. I have understood your worry or fear or concern or whatever you want to call it. I was just wondering if we could put some numbers on your concern.

You seem to put more weight on this amount of attrition being more of a problem than I. However, it could be that we differ more in baseline than in concrete numbers.

If we hold 2014 as the baseline, than I agree that it will be hard to match 3.5 ppd and 6.75 ypp. However, 2009 was also a good year, and we scored 3.1 ppd and averaged 6.16 ypp (the same as 2012, fwiw).

So, in my mind, given our QB & OL, if we average less than 6.2 ypp and score less than 3.0 ppd for the season than the plug and play theory is disproven.

I guess if we want to set benchmarks for those stats as a measure of the validity of the theory, those are good ones. Although, it might be tough to attribute production levels specifically to the skill guys.

Looking at the bigger picture, I expect our D to be better than last year, maybe even far better. This could very well offset a less potent offense and make us a better team as a whole. I also expect our ST's to be better, but again, not sure how much.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I lean toward the notion that our attrition at A-back and at B-back are not without precedent. I also fully understood the comments by
AE 87
regarding Groh. To oversimplify his point, offense has never been the weak link since CPJ came to Tech and I seriously doubt it will be this year.

The more refined discussion is whether we can quantify the expected fall off from the sensational offensive performance of last year. I am not saying that is impossible but I do think it is a challenge to compare any previous year to last year due to the emergence of our quarterback. It is not hyperbole to say he made everyone on the offense better last year. We now speak with confidence about the ability of talented players who have moved on from Tech, players that prior to the season we would not have claimed to be banking the entire season on. Their value is only seen in retrospect and was not anticipated by anyone on this board that I can remember.

There is no reason to think JT won't do the same again this year in terms of bringing other players up with him. The unknown is determining what kind of talent he will be working with at the skill positions. But, with all due respect, when have we had a year at Tech since 2008 when we didn't have at least a few questions about the supporting cast around our quarterbacks? The stability of our offensive line and quarterback, in my mind, create a much higher ceiling for the offense than in previous years however.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I think teams are going to adjust for JT this year. It will be interesting to see how he and CPJ adjust to those adjustments. How well they do that will control how well we do.

I think this offense could be unstoppable again in 2017, but we lose an aweful lot on the denfense. But that's a story for another year.

 

[swampsting]

I think teams are going to adjust for JT this year. It will be interesting to see how he and CPJ adjust to those adjustments. How well they do that will control how well we do.

I think this offense could be unstoppable again in 2017, but we lose an aweful lot on the denfense. But that's a story for another year.

His kind of speed is not easy to adjust for. If they want to take away the big chunk threat and try to play it safe, it will be 12-15 play drives all day. If they want to stack the line and give him nowhere to go running it, that might put a lot of burden on young receivers to make plays in the passing game. But you only have to hit one or two of those plays to make a difference. If it's one on one on the perimeter, they have to either try to make an open field tackle on a smoke route, not get caught on a pump fake or play action fake for a deep shot or find a way to stop a back shoulder throw for 15-20 yards.

Teams had time to adjust for JT last year. Mississippi State is still wondering where he went on those last two mid-line calls.

 

[Blumpkin Souffle]

I don't understand.

Your earlier "not so much" post seemed to me to sarcastically dismiss the thesis that with returning QB and OL etc, the skill guys will be largely plug and play. Here, you say your cautiously optimistic and the lack of returning skill guys seems to become the reason for caution.

I don't understand how you can be optimistic and dismissive of the plug and play thesis at the same time.

It's the Phil Steele model, cover both sides of the coin so that at a later point you can come back with a "I called it" type comment.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

It's the Phil Steele model, cover both sides of the coin so that at a later point you can come back with a "I called it" type comment.

Hey -head, if we struggle on offense due to missed perimeter blocks, guys going the wrong way, bad spacing on the pitch, dropped pitches, dropped meshes, wr's running bad routes/not in sync with the qb, Bbacks who whiff on blocks, etc, then and only then, would I have claim to say "I called it," but I'm not the big d-bag like you who'd do that.

If we roll on O, I'll gladly say I was wrong and I'd be damn happy about it.

Why don't you actually add to the conversation instead of trying to troll me. Looks like you at least succeeded in that, congrats!

 

[Blumpkin Souffle]

Hey -head, if we struggle on offense due to missed perimeter blocks, guys going the wrong way, bad spacing on the pitch, dropped pitches, dropped meshes, wr's running bad routes/not in sync with the qb, Bbacks who whiff on blocks, etc, then and only then, would I have claim to say "I called it," but I'm not the big d-bag like you who'd do that.

If we roll on O, I'll gladly say I was wrong and I'd be damn happy about it.

Why don't you actually add to the conversation instead of trying to troll me. Looks like you at least succeeded in that, congrats!

To "add to the conversation" I anticipate we will start the season with a more one dimensional offense, and get more complex as the newcomers better learn their blocking assignments. We return 4/5 linemen and if we get the kind of push we had last year anything up the middle will go for 3+ yards. It won't be pretty but it'll be smash mouth type football and it will still win games.

That was rich, contribute to the conversation.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

To "add to the conversation" I anticipate we will start the season with a more one dimensional offense, and get more complex as the newcomers better learn their blocking assignments. We return 4/5 linemen and if we get the kind of push we had last year anything up the middle will go for 3+ yards. It won't be pretty but it'll be smash mouth type football and it will still win games.

That was rich, contribute to the conversation.

Wow, nice way to drive home a point, blinking graphics and Obama!

As to your actual comments, now that's much better. Lucid, rational and maybe close to how we start the season. But then again, we start the season with a couple of patsies so your gameplan should hold us over for a little while. But we sure as heck better be fast learners and have more up our sleeves than that when we roll into South Bend for game 3 or it's gonna be a long day and long flight home. We were able to beat Georgia, go toe to toe with FSU and embarrass MSU with a lot more than 3 yrds and cloud of dust.

 

[redmule]

I just look back at last year for an answer. On offense, we were starting a new QB that the consensus said was too small and fragile to last the year plus his passing had not turned any heads when he was a R-FR. Byerly would be the starter by mid October. We were also starting three new OL; a R-FR with no experience at RT, a R-SO at C coming off a year rehabbing, and a LT that most thought was a non-entity. We were hoping that Devine would beat out Braun, but he showed up 100 lbs overweight. We had also lost our best A back (Godhigh) and our starting B Back, Sims. Waller had been a major disappointment at WR as had Perkins, Zenon, and Bostic at A Back. Those that thought playing Days at A Back was ridiculous were right. We hoped Laskey and Connors could hold down the fort at B Back so we could redshirt Leggett. About the only two players we were reasonably confident about were Smelter and Shaq. Yet somehow................

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Wish Obama wasn't being used in gifs here. Seeing his mug typically makes me see red all by itself.

We will have some youth struggles. It's insane to think we won't. But that will be offset IMO by the upgrade in raw talent we have coming in. The one constant we have, our coaching, leads me to this rather optimistic opinion.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I think other teams are going to try to put a hat on JT every play and see if he'll last. He's fast and elusive, so it'll be hard to hit him square, but I watched FSU demolish Lil' Joe 2 yrs in a row with late hits and cheap shots. That's the only way they beat him, both years. I guarantee there'll be cheap shots and late hits all over the place. They will try to get physical with him. I hope he's plenty slippery.