Excellent Article from SBNation

[cuttysark]

@dressedcheeseside

Those are all salient points but different than the situation currently facing CPJ from where the program was when he arrived in 2008. While he inherited JD, JN, and DT at the skill spots, he had virtually no offensive line. And I recall a converted A-Back beefing up to play OT.

With a returning offensive line and QB, the WR's; B-Backs; and A-Backs while untested to be sure, will probably be an upgrade when all is said and done looking back on their collective careers.

This best additional example I can toss out there for comparison would be when Tony Dorsett joined the Dallas Cowboys who had an excellent offensive line and QB. Had Tony gone to a Tampa Bay or some other team without a great O-Line he wouldn't have had the career he did in the NFL.

The kids stepping up are very talented, will be sufficient, and I know CPJ and the staff are confident that they will produce the numbers necessary to keep this offense moving at a very efficient level.

 

[Longestday]

It will come down to knowing where to go and can they block. Blocking in space is/looks very difficult.

ABacks Lynch and Willis made some good blocks in the spring game. Snoddy can run, and I'll wait to comment until I see more blocking this year. Keep in mind we were down 2-3 ABacks due to injuries by year end.

BB is a complete mystery.

 

[Skeptic]

All of those examples are about replacing one skill guy at a time.

Let the following sink in:

After checking the 3 deep depth chart for last season at Bback, Aback and wr, we only return 4 guys. That's 4 guys out of 15. This fact cannot be overstated. To fill out the 3 deep for these 5 positions, we need 11 new guys.

11 new guys................. in one season.

From last year's 2 deep in the skill positions, we return 1 guy, Summers.

1 guy. That's 9 new faces out of 10.

I don't know about anybody else, but I am going to really enjoy my Sunday. Very sobered up.

 

[RLR]

I think the theory loses traction the more guys you have to replace. One or two guys, yeah, plug and play. The entire skill group, not so much.

Agreed. I wonder, though, if at a certain point, replacing the entire skill group is better for the system then , say, replacing half the group. No way I can quantify this, just thinking in the abstract. Massive turnover results in massive opportunity, which is more likely to be perceived as a "fair shot" for the freshman + new backs. Maybe competition reduces the learning curve? With the huge influx of freshman A-backs + amount of rotation as the position, maybe they'll identify more as a group and less in terms of individual touches. I'm not saying that this huge turnover is ideal or better than having last years seniors, but this huge influx could lead to rapid growth.

Assuming the line can be as good as last year w/o Shaq and JT stays healthy, I'm confident in the offense. If the defense comes anywhere close to the level of play I'm projecting for them, then I'll see you friends in Charlotte.

Full disclosure: I'm also a Cubs fan, who has bet on the Cubs to win it all on opening day for 10 consecutive years...I tend to run slightly optimistic.

 

[Skeptic]

A

Full disclosure: I'm also a Cubs fan, who has bet on the Cubs to win it all on opening day for 10 consecutive years...I tend to run slightly optimistic.

That's like investing your 401k with Bernie Madoff because he seems like a swell guy. But believe it or not I can kind of, a little bit but not much, somewhat, perhaps, see you have a point. Maybe.

 

[danny daniel]

I think we get your point in the abstract. Besides Summers and Snoddy, we will be relying on new guys in skill positions.

Do you have a concrete measure in mind where your skepticism can be proven correct or not? A certain points/drive or yds/play?

What will make you think, "that's what I was afraid of" or "wow, I guess I was wrong" if anything?

Thoughts: For A and B backs measure the fumbles, how well we block (subjective), and mental penalties. The talent will take care of the running and catching. Measure the blocking (subjective) by the WRs and QB throwaways (no one open), dropped passes, mental and alignment penalties, and how we respond (subjective) when the QB is being chased. Agreed that the "subjective" measures are difficult to quantify/compare.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I still hold to the belief that there was a strong correlation between our success and the fact that 90% of our offensive skill players were seniors.

But clearly the expert opinions say otherwise.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

How about: "Who's going to replace Roddy?" Which was followed next year by: "Who's going to replace Robbie?"

And there was great gnashing of teeth over on FTRS about how we would ever replace Orwin Smith with the returning backs we had.

 

[cuttysark]

@Northeast Stinger:

We never actually truly replaced Orwin Smith as I haven't seen another end zone safety since that Miami game at BDS several seasons ago. I hope I never see another special teams play like that one ever again on a kickoff return.

For all of the discussion or concern about plugging in new (younger and inexperienced) players, Orwin was a Senior when he made that ill fated decision to run out of the end zone then changed his mind at the goal line while breaking the plane of the end zone. Something you would expect to see from a true frosh, not a battle tested Senior.

While one play should never define a kid's career, and that one was extremely out of character compared to what Orwin did during his time on the Flats, it just shows that mistakes can happen to anyone regardless of their playing experience.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

@Northeast Stinger:

We never actually truly replaced Orwin Smith as I haven't seen another end zone safety since that Miami game at BDS several seasons ago. I hope I never see another special teams play like that one ever again on a kickoff return.

For all of the discussion or concern about plugging in new (younger and inexperienced) players, Orwin was a Senior when he made that ill fated decision to run out of the end zone then changed his mind at the goal line while breaking the plane of the end zone. Something you would expect to see from a true frosh, not a battle tested Senior.

While one play should never define a kid's career, and that one was extremely out of character compared to what Orwin did during his time on the Flats, it just shows that mistakes can happen to anyone regardless of their playing experience.

Fish have been known to fall from the sky on rare occasion, too.

Fwiw, I am cautiously optimistic our experience on offense (OL and qb) trumps our inexperience in the skill positions as many have suggested. It just has always occurred to me that our offense is different than most in that it leans more on precision than brute force. This is a blessing and a curse. It means we don't need to out athlete the opposition if we can out smart them. To do that, you need all 11 on the same page and doing their jobs precisely and in perfect concert. Adding 9 new faces to the skill position two deep makes that proposition daunting in my mind.

 

[AE 87]

Fish have been known to fall from the sky on rare occasion, too.

Fwiw, I am cautiously optimistic our experience on offense (OL and qb) trumps our inexperience in the skill positions as many have suggested. It just has always occurred to me that our offense is different than most in that it leans more on precision than brute force. This is a blessing and a curse. It means we don't need to out athlete the opposition if we can out smart them. To do that, you need all 11 on the same page and doing their jobs precisely and in perfect concert. Adding 9 new faces to the skill position two deep makes that proposition daunting in my mind.

I don't understand.

Your earlier "not so much" post seemed to me to sarcastically dismiss the thesis that with returning QB and OL etc, the skill guys will be largely plug and play. Here, you say your cautiously optimistic and the lack of returning skill guys seems to become the reason for caution.

I don't understand how you can be optimistic and dismissive of the plug and play thesis at the same time.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I don't understand.

Your earlier "not so much" post seemed to me to sarcastically dismiss the thesis that with returning QB and OL etc, the skill guys will be largely plug and play. Here, you say your cautiously optimistic and the lack of returning skill guys seems to become the reason for caution.

I don't understand how you can be optimistic and dismissive of the plug and play thesis at the same time.

To be honest, I'm not sold on either theory, there are merits to both arguments. The only real answer is to wait and see.

On one hand, my hope is buoyed by the return of JT and the OL. However, that hope is extremely tempered by the loss of veteran skill guys, most of whom took their entire careers to become proficient. I'm truly in a quandary.

I guess I'm leaning towards the side that says there will be substantial growing pains. Despite that, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[AE 87]

To be honest, I'm not sold on either theory, there are merits to both arguments. The only real answer is to wait and see.

On one hand, my hope is buoyed by the return of JT and the OL. However, that hope is extremely tempered by the loss of veteran skill guys, most of whom took their entire careers to become proficient. I'm truly in a quandary.

I guess I'm leaning towards the side that says there will be substantial growing pains. Despite that, I hope I'm wrong.

I think I get you. I may have a similar problem with predicting our D.

One part of my brain says that our problems on D in 2013 stemmed from a new system and that in 2014 we lost too many guys on whom we were counting. It was growing pains, and with JHD and KW coming in with the experience earned by the young guys, we'll be fine.

However, another part of my brain and my gut scream that this doesn't explain how bad we were. Midway thru last year I was sure that our defensive signals had been ripped. Without turnovers, we struggled to stop people. We still seemed to leave obvious holes in our zone D.

So, I see both sides and tend now to affirm the first perspective but can't shake the data favoring the second as meaningless.

It seems that your attitude to our O is similar but I don't understand what data informs it.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I think I get you. I may have a similar problem with predicting our D.

One part of my brain says that our problems on D in 2013 stemmed from a new system and that in 2014 we lost too many guys on whom we were counting. It was growing pains, and with JHD and KW coming in with the experience earned by the young guys, we'll be fine.

However, another part of my brain and my gut scream that this doesn't explain how bad we were. Midway thru last year I was sure that our defensive signals had been ripped. Without turnovers, we struggled to stop people. We still seemed to leave obvious holes in our zone D.

So, I see both sides and tend now to affirm the first perspective but can't shake the data favoring the second as meaningless.

It seems that your attitude to our O is similar but I don't understand what data informs it.

The data that drives it is the loss of 11 of the 15 three deep skill guys.

 

[AE 87]

The data that drives it is the loss of 11 of the 15 three deep skill guys.

I apologize for my lack of clarity. I was wondering about data in support of that fact translating to poor offensive performance. I'm surprised that you thought I was unaware of the fact that you already posted in this thread.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I apologize for my lack of clarity. I was wondering about data in support of that fact translating to poor offensive performance. I'm surprised that you thought I was unaware of the fact that you already posted in this thread.

There's no data to support or refute my concerns because it's never happened before. We've never had to replace 73.3% of the skill position players. This fact is concern enough, imo.

 

[AE 87]

There's no data to support or refute my concerns because it's never happened before. We've never had to replace 73.3% of the skill position players. This fact is concern enough, imo.

100% in 2008?

 

[dressedcheeseside]

100% in 2008?

 

[AE 87]

I was serious. Also, we were pretty close in 2012.

None of our BBacks in 2012 played BBack in 2011.

We had no returning WR receptions.

At ABack, we had Orwin and then Zenon with limited experience, and a few others with less.

So, while it's not exactly the same, there is data from which to extrapolate optimism.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I was serious. Also, we were pretty close in 2012.

None of our BBacks in 2012 played BBack in 2011.

We had no returning WR receptions.

At ABack, we had Orwin and then Zenon with limited experience, and a few others with less.

So, while it's not exactly the same, there is data from which to extrapolate optimism.

Thanks, I want to be optimistic. Actually, upon further review, we went 7-7, lost to Middle Tenn and got pounded by the mutts that year. Yeah, we went to Charlotte, but we all know why that was.