There is no way to "know" about the future at all. That applies to the worry about leaving too much time as well. That is always a risk vs reward thing, and so you have to consider whether it would be good for them to try and push the issue. And there are reasons that team that was aggressive early, and continued to quick snap when they could be in victory formation chose not to push the issue and that is a factor in weighting how much of a threat "leaving them time" is. Also, you're ideally implied that a FG was an option. It wasn't. If we kick a FG there, regardless of making it, we might have well of punted it. But also what if we get to something like 3rd and 12 with 20 seconds left, run a play, they get called for a facemask and we get a fresh set of downs? Burning time could bite us in that situation, and it doesn't take far fetched events to make it so.
Then it would be 1st and goal from the 6 (your penalty illustration would be half the distance to the goal) with 20-30 seconds left. Plenty of time for running 3 plays, depending on the pass/run mix and their remaining timeout.