Duke Week + Homecoming

[iopjacket]

How long has it been since we have put back to back wins together? I continue to have no expectations for this team.

No time better than this Saturday for it to happen again.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Why is an all ACC game on ESPN3 rather than ACCNX? Tax rules easier to figure out.

We are 3 point underdog @ home. I think we should be slightly favored, but barely. Which team is closer to average?

 

[albanyjacket]

Not showing as on ESPN3 schedule

 

[gtcole]

Why is an all ACC game on ESPN3 rather than ACCNX? Tax rules easier to figure out.

We are 3 point underdog @ home. I think we should be slightly favored, but barely. Which team is closer to average?

Bally. ESPN3 out of market probably

 

[78pike]

Take a close look at Duke's schedule. Outside of an upstart Kansas they really haven't played anyone. Looking at their opponents and outside of Kansas I only see one single win against a P5 team (Northwestern vs. Nebraska). They may be 4-1 but they haven't really beaten a team with a winning record. I think the 3 point spread is a pretty fair number but I wouldn't be surprised at all if we beat them.

 

[iceeater1969]

Take a close look at Duke's schedule. Outside of an upstart Kansas they really haven't played anyone. Looking at their opponents and outside of Kansas I only see one single win against a P5 team (Northwestern vs. Nebraska). They may be 4-1 but they haven't really beaten a team with a winning record. I think the 3 point spread is a pretty fair number but I wouldn't be surprised at all if we beat them.

Are we lucky or what. Without the 4th punt block the person to be named later would likely still be here. Then Sims wakes up at Duke and "named later" would still be here till we figured it out the much harder way.

I hope
u are right and we get a decisive win. I will take a helluva battle like Pitt and be overjoyed.

 

[slugboy]

Baked into this prediction are our first four games that we didn't play well in. I'd recommend weighting the last game a lot heavier than the first four. We do still have issues, but this game is more even than the stats models say it is. Like some others have said, this game is about who wants it more and who gets the lucky breaks.

Are we lucky or what. Without the 4th punt block the person to be named later would likely still be here. Then Sims wakes up at Duke and "named later" would still be here till we figured it out the much harder way.

I hope
u are right and we get a decisive win. I will take a helluva battle like Pitt and be overjoyed.

I don't think he was lasting the entire season. The Ole Miss game probably did him in. UCF was just the cherry on top.

It also looks like C*****s brought the punt blocks on himself.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Not showing as on ESPN3 schedule

Here's why I said ESPN3 from ESPN site. No matter, I'll be in the mountains with NO connectivity and blissfully unaware till I walk to a ridge to get connectivity.

Just noticed that there are 3 Duke players and none of ours to watch. LOL. That's BS.

 

[slugboy]

Here's why I said ESPN3 from ESPN site. No matter, I'll be in the mountains with NO connectivity and blissfully unaware till I walk to a ridge to get connectivity.

Just noticed that there are 3 Duke players and none of ours to watch. LOL. That's BS.

View attachment 13250

They’re picking players on offense. I’d definitely say to watch Thomas and Eley and a few others on defense. And we got no rushers?
ESPN’s loss

 

[bke1984]

Jeff is prone to hand it off on the RPO way too much

When you watch him it’s clear that he tries to avoid contact to a fault. There are exceptions of course…most notably stepping into the pocket for the TD and running down field to block for Hall…but then there are repeated cases of pulling up short when he can pick up a first down, or simply falling into the line on a sneak from the goal line…or handing the ball off on an RPO when he could keep and gain 3-4, but get blasted in the process. I get that he’s not Nesbitt, but I think he’s overly cautious. He needs to take a few more chances with the ball, because he’s truly dynamic when he does.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Just noticed that there are 3 Duke players and none of ours to watch. LOL. That's BS.

They’re picking players on offense. I’d definitely say to watch Thomas and Eley and a few others on defense. And we got no rushers?
ESPN’s loss

They pick the statistical best QB, RB, and WR entering the game. Dukes players so far have better stats than ours.

 

[slugboy]

It's Wednesday, so let's have some hump day preview information.

On Offense, Riley Leonard is up towards the top of the ACC QBR rankings, with a really nice 79.8 rating--that's good. Sims is down at a 46. Some people split the QBR where above 70 is good and below 70 is not, but I'd put more gray in it than that. Sub-50 is not where you want to be when you need to sling the ball.

NAME		QBR
Drake Maye	UNC	90.6​
Jordan Travis	FSU	83.2​
Riley Leonard	DUKE	79.8​
Sam Hartman	WAKE	78.6​
DJ Uiagalelei	CLEM	77.2​
Malik Cunningham	LOU	75.9​
Garrett Shrader	SYR	74.4​
Devin Leary	NCST	52.5​
Kedon Slovis	PITT	48.8​
Jeff Sims	GT	46​
Grant Wells	VT	45.6​
Tyler Van Dyke	MIA	41.3​
Brennan Armstrong	UVA	41.1​
Phil Jurkovec	BC	39.4​

I'll look at their last game against UVA, since they're probably more comparable to us than Kansas. Here are the Duke-UVA highlights. Duke looks good. UVA's QB Armstrong should have gone pro last year. UVA's defense--well, Pitt's defense looks a LOT better than UVA's defense. Last year, UVA would beat you 49-35, but this year's defense looks weaker than last year's defense. Still, Duke looks good, even if UVA looks weak.

The one thing that makes me feel good about our defense is that, outside of some Q4 breakdowns, did not give up the big play, unless your idea of a big play is a 7-yard run. Duke feasted on UVA's defense.



Here's the Game on Paper

Overall	UVA	DUKE
EPA/Play	-0.14 19th %ile	0.22 82nd %ile
Success Rate	39% 39th %ile	56% 96th %ile
Yards/Play	3.21 2nd %ile	6.17 56th %ile
EPA/Dropback	-0.13 30th %ile	0.08 53rd %ile
EPA/Rush	-0.16 22nd %ile	0.32 91st %ile
Yards/Dropback	3.45 8th %ile	6.20 47th %ile
Explosive Play Rate	11% 77th %ile	7% 33rd %ile
3rd Down Success Rate	55% 82nd %ile	50% 75th %ile
Red Zone Success Rate	40% 53rd %ile	100% 99th %ile
Def Run Stuff Rate	6% 0th %ile	12% 1st %ile
Havoc Rate	8% 37th %ile	21% 95th %ile

Duke ran for 248 yards and passed for 129. UVA passed for 202 and rushed for 93. Duke cashed in and got a ton out of their running game.

Duke just got in front and gradually padded their lead from there. When they played Kansas and got behind, they didn't play as well. Lesson learned--don't let them have an early lead.

	1	2	3	4	T
UVA	0	7	3	7	17
DUKE	14	7	7	10	38

Here's our FEI numbers.

RK	Team	Rec	FBS	FEI		OFEI	Rk	DFEI	Rk		NDE	Rk	NPD	Rk	NAY	Rk	NPP	Rk		ELS	Rk	GLS	Rk	ALS	Rk
66	Duke	4-1	3-1	-0.05		0.19	51	-0.4	97		1.29	25	1.32	21	0.145	25	1.82	15		0.04	118	0.26	120	1.26	115
94	Georgia Tech	2-3	1-3	-0.32		-0.25	86	-0.23	86		-1.32	111	-1.54	115	-0.171	111	-1.08	100		0.42	24	1.69	5	3.2	2

So, opponent-adjusted, our defense is better than their defense. Their offense is much better than our offense.

Our defense SHOULD match up pretty well with their defense. The bigger question is whether our offense starts playing better.

 

[gville_jacket]

Here's why I said ESPN3 from ESPN site. No matter, I'll be in the mountains with NO connectivity and blissfully unaware till I walk to a ridge to get connectivity.

Just noticed that there are 3 Duke players and none of ours to watch. LOL. That's BS.

View attachment 13250

The players to watch is purely most passing yards, most rush yards, most receiving yards. That's it, it's autogenerated.

 

[tsrich]

Bally. ESPN3 out of market probably

Dammit, this is a Bally game? That sucks for those of us not on cable

 

[slugboy]

Here's your depth chart (has this been shared, already)?


More stats on Duke:

Duke Rushers:

Jaylen Coleman and Jordan Waters are their main rushers, and Coleman seems to be the more dangerous.

			Rush				Rece				Scri
Rk	Player	G	Att	Yds	Avg	TDV	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
1	Jaylen Coleman	5	58	307	5.3	4	2	28	14.0	0	60	335	5.6	4
2	Jordan Waters	5	51	248	4.9	4	7	59	8.4	0	58	307	5.3	4
3	Riley Leonard	5	41	261	6.4	4					41	261	6.4	4
4	Jaquez Moore	4	18	156	8.7	1					18	156	8.7	1
5	Eric Weatherly	2	2	16	8.0	1					2	16	8.0	1
6	Jordan Moore	5	4	33	8.3	0	22	215	9.8	3	26	248	9.5	3
7	Rashawn Allen	4	3	9	3.0	0					3	9	3.0	0
8	Henry Belvin IV	1	3	-16	-5.3	0					3	-16	-5.3	0
9	Terry Moore	2	2	6	3.0	0					2	6	3.0	0

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/6/2022.

Duke Receivers:

Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore get the majority of the passes.

			Rush				Rece				Scri
Rk	Player	G	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	TDV	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
1	Jordan Moore	5	4	33	8.3	0	22	215	9.8	3	26	248	9.5	3
2	Jalon Calhoun	5					23	356	15.5	2	23	356	15.5	2
3	Nicky Dalmolin	5					10	87	8.7	1	10	87	8.7	1
4	Shamir Hagans	5					7	115	16.4	1	7	115	16.4	1
5	Jaylen Coleman	5	58	307	5.3	4	2	28	14.0	0	60	335	5.6	4
6	Jordan Waters	5	51	248	4.9	4	7	59	8.4	0	58	307	5.3	4
7	Eli Pancol	5					12	218	18.2	0	12	218	18.2	0
8	Jontavis Robertson	5					5	63	12.6	0	5	63	12.6	0
9	Darrell Harding Jr.	4					3	21	7.0	0	3	21	7.0	0
10	Cole Finney	5					2	32	16.0	0	2	32	16.0	0
11	Luca Diamont	2					1	18	18.0	0	1	18	18.0	0

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/6/2022.

 

[slugboy]

There's a more interesting view at https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2022/team/150.

DETMER is an interesting stat

Riley Leonard throws fairly deep and completes good percentage of his passes.

	Comp/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	DETMER	Yds/dropback	EPA/dropback	EPA	SR
Riley Leonard	59/89 (66% Comp)	815	3	0	3	0.51	8.59	0.26	24.11	45%

Waters and Coleman are players to watch on the ground:

	Carries	Yds	TD	Fum	Yds/rush	EPA/rush	EPA	SR
Jaylen Coleman	28	138	2	0	4.93	0.09	2.63	50%
Jordan Waters	25	119	1	0	4.76	0.34	8.50	60%
Riley Leonard	22	147	0	0	6.68	0.12	2.54	59%
Jaquez Moore	11	34	0	0	3.09	-0.44	-4.83	18%
Jordan Moore	4	33	0	0	8.25	0.39	1.58	75%
RaShawn Allen	3	9	0	0	3.00	-0.24	-0.73	33%

Here's their passing info:

	Catches	Targets	Catch Rate	Yds	TD	Fum	Yds/play	EPA/play	EPA	SR
Jalon Calhoun	17	22	77%	291	1	0	13.23	0.74	16.38	64%
Eli Pancol	8	17	47%	136	0	0	8.00	0.12	2.06	41%
Jordan Moore	14	16	88%	163	1	0	10.19	0.97	15.46	69%
Nicky Dalmolin	6	7	86%	13	0	0	1.86	-0.65	-4.54	0%
Jordan Waters	5	5	100%	43	0	0	8.60	0.07	0.33	40%
Sahmir Hagans	3	4	75%	66	1	0	16.50	1.48	5.91	75%
Jontavis Robertson	3	3	100%	45	0	0	15.00	0.96	2.87	67%

Basically, watch out for Calhoun and Moor. Either Leonard has a great touch, or all his receivers other than Pancol have great hands.

Defensively, they look vulnerable to the pass, but they lost to Kansas, so it might be distorted by that game:

Against the Pass
Plays	110
Plays/Game	37 #87
Total EPA	27.59 #118
EPA/Play	0.25 #117
EPA/Game	9.20 #120
Success Rate	46.4% T-#110

They're good against the run, which is where we're better on offense.

Against the Run
Plays	94
Plays/Game	31 #47
Total EPA	-38.10 #2
EPA/Play	-0.41 #1
EPA/Game	-12.70 #2
Success Rate	31.9% #24

 

[slugboy]

Here are some highlights from the Kansas game (it was a really good game):