Duke Week + Homecoming

forensicbuzz

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GT opens as three point underdogs at home against Duke.

That's a 4-1 team versus a 2-3 team. Interesting that the guys in the know seem to think 6 points is a reasonable differential.
 

Thwg777

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The spread is fair. Teams need to win several games before more substantial model changes are made, otherwise it's an overreaction. Duke is 4-1 and is just now getting 'respect' with the models. They were expected to win 3 games this season. Their only loss came to 5-0 Kansas, a team expected to win 2.5 games this season.

If we can get the b2b win monkey off our back Saturday, our expected win total should jump to nearly 5 games.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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There’s a writeup of this week’s ACC slate at https://saturdayroad.com/acc/acc-football-week6-first-impressions-matchups/. Duke's defense has feasted on turnovers and the team has a +6 turnover differential. In fewer words, they probably won't drop 4 interceptions like Pitt did. Weinke needs to earn his paycheck this week.

Duke's turnover margin is currently 8. GT has a margin of 7. We've done it against better competition than Duke has faced so far. Sims plays clean and I think we can win walking away in this one.
 

forensicbuzz

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There’s a writeup of this week’s ACC slate at https://saturdayroad.com/acc/acc-football-week6-first-impressions-matchups/. Duke's defense has feasted on turnovers and the team has a +6 turnover differential. In fewer words, they probably won't drop 4 interceptions like Pitt did. Weinke needs to earn his paycheck this week.
I'd love to see a breakdown, but it seemed that Sims had another game full of missed reads. There were many times on the RPO it seemed he made a bad read. Also, he appeared to be late recognizing where he wanted to go and then pulling the trigger, which gives the DB's a better chance to react to the ball than the WR's. This was one of my biggest gripes about Sims his first couple of years, late recognition and late throws. Hopefully, with a little better protection (Duke doesn't have Pitts' DL), he'll make better decisions.
 

GT_05

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The line, at least initially, has as much to do with bringing money into the betting pool as it does with the team’s abilities/expectations. Since none of us know what to expect from Tech right now, the oddsmakers are thinking Tech and 3 will bring the most money into the game. The line to often changes based on the betting.
 

leatherneckjacket

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I'd love to see a breakdown, but it seemed that Sims had another game full of missed reads. There were many times on the RPO it seemed he made a bad read. Also, he appeared to be late recognizing where he wanted to go and then pulling the trigger, which gives the DB's a better chance to react to the ball than the WR's. This was one of my biggest gripes about Sims his first couple of years, late recognition and late throws. Hopefully, with a little better protection (Duke doesn't have Pitts' DL), he'll make better decisions.
That is what I saw. Bad reads on the RPO and not recognizing the coverage properly. Even when the decision was easy, his throws were sometimes wildly inaccurate. The play where he rolled to his left and had Jenkins wide open in front of him for an easy first down, but threw the ball behind him was quite bad.
 

slugboy

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That is what I saw. Bad reads on the RPO and not recognizing the coverage properly. Even when the decision was easy, his throws were sometimes wildly inaccurate. The play where he rolled to his left and had Jenkins wide open in front of him for an easy first down, but threw the ball behind him was quite bad.
Jenkins still should have caught that, BUT if Sims had put the ball in front of Jenkins he could have gone for a LOT more yardage. That's the difference between missed first downs and huge gains.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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Jenkins still should have caught that, BUT if Sims had put the ball in front of Jenkins he could have gone for a LOT more yardage. That's the difference between missed first downs and huge gains.
Jeff has to play better. That pass was pretty bad as he was not under duress and Jenkins was wide open. Jeff is prone to hand it off on the RPO way too much but then, none of us have experienced the sight of 300 lb. defensive linemen bearing down with, shall we say malicious intent. He does not trust his line or the tight ends to make blocks. Can't say I don't blame him. If I am Duke, I would come after him from different angles with different players and hit him hard. Duke is not great by any means but they have looked credible, about as much as any Coastal team is going to be. Six point dogs is about right but I would not touch that game were I a gambling man. Duke's job is simple: stop the run and don't commit turnovers. Do those two things and the Blue Devils should be in position to win. Don't stop the run, allow Sims to get outside, commit turnovers in scoring position, and the opposite is true Tech will be the one in position to win.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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I still think this game is a solid win for us. Duke is benefitting from perception based solely on their record alone. Going into the UVA game, Duke was ranked 82nd in OFEI and 101st in DFEI as opposed to 92 and 100 respectively for GT. The difference is in who they played to get that ranking. Dukes offense was ranked 82nd after facing the 76, 98, and 125 ranked DFEIs. GT faced the 9, 27, and 28th ranked DFEIs prior to 10th ranked DFEI Pitt this last weekend. Dukes DFEI ranking (101) is even less impressive considering they faced Temple (127 OFEI) and Northwestern (97 OFEI). They did play a Kansas team ranked 21st in OFEI, but they lost that game. GT's opponents prior to Pitt (55 OFEI) are ranked 7, 35, and 51st. It's easy to simply say 4-1 team is almost certain to beat a 2-3 team, but it's also lazy. Nothing on Duke's resume so far really impresses me. Had we played Dukes schedule we'd likely be 4-1 right now as well.

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ibeattetris

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In fewer words, they probably won't drop 4 interceptions like Pitt did. Weinke needs to earn his paycheck this week.
Key at one point in a sideline interview said he told Sims to play with no fear. He wanted him to ply as if there was nothing to lose and if mistakes happen they do.

I feel like that was a great first game philosophy but may have led to a lot of the near interceptions. Now we’ve proven the team can win, I hope Sims can ride the line a little better.
 

ibeattetris

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I still think this game is a solid win for us. Duke is benefitting from perception based solely on their record alone. Going into the UVA game, Duke was ranked 82nd in OFEI and 101st in DFEI as opposed to 92 and 100 respectively for GT. The difference is in who they played to get that ranking. Dukes offense was ranked 82nd after facing the 76, 98, and 125 ranked DFEIs. GT faced the 9, 27, and 28th ranked DFEIs prior to 10th ranked DFEI Pitt this last weekend. Dukes DFEI ranking (101) is even less impressive considering they faced Temple (127 OFEI) and Northwestern (97 OFEI). They did play a Kansas team ranked 21st in OFEI, but they lost that game. GT's opponents prior to Pitt (55 OFEI) are ranked 7, 35, and 51st. It's easy to simply say 4-1 team is almost certain to beat a 2-3 team, but it's also lazy. Nothing on Duke's resume so far really impresses me. Had we played Dukes schedule we'd likely be 4-1 right now as well.

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I’ve been saying all along I didn’t think Duke was the real deal and they are beatable. I think Vegas drew a good line as this is likely a “who wants it more” game
 

UgaBlows

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