Depends on what lineup Duke goes. If they go Mark Williams you have to put Wright on him imo and trust Moore and Ush to deal with Hurt. Not just for defense, but for rebounding.
Otherwise, I think them not having Johnson hurt them against UL and will hurt them against us. Wendell Moore has the talent where he could make a big impact, but I'm certainly glad that Johnson won't be an option for them.
Conceptually I agree with you but I did notice that for a period of time (didn't track it and didn't pay enough attention to it), we put Moses on Guerrier to keep him from going off and had Usher on the big guy who took over for Dolezaj - Edwards I think. Saw it several times down court in a row but didn't track it to see if it was just a phase or the base plan. I have to figure the concept was Edwards wasn't going to beat us and SYR didn't/doesn't make him a part of the offense so we thought we could get by with it. I don't think Williams is much of a scorer for Duke but I would worry that Duke would make a point to get him the ball in a mismatch where SYR really didn't.
End of the day it really comes down to what you want to take away from Hurt - his post moves/step backs or his 3 point shots. Moses is a better option for the post moves, Usher can do quite well if he goes no help and stays with him on the 3 point line. But he won't be able to bother him as much in the block.
Whichever way we go (and I do think it is likely Usher), that will be a fun matchup to watch along with Goldwire checking Jose. That one will be a classic and I wouldn't be surprised to see Devoe take some of the lead guard role during the game.