Coronavirus Thread

[Deleted member 2897]

Read pages 5 - 7 again. Goolsby and Syverson's explanation of the effects they estimated in Table 1 shows why they said what they did and why they did more then look at the graphs of logged visits. The Appendix Table they provide is also informative.

This has absolutely nothing to do with ignoring the data; indeed, it is their careful parsing of effects that reveals what the data are actually telling us; i.e. that the bottom fell out of consumer demand in leisure and entertainment before any re-opening and continued falling until states began to take their foot off the pedal. Even then demand (as measured by visits) only partially recovered.

I mean, their data says the opposite of their thesis - demand was almost 100% of normal and then fell off a cliff upon the shutdown. How they can conclude anything otherwise would be pure conjecture. The data is simply not there to show it had already fallen off a cliff. It’s right in their own graphs.

They’re also ignoring history, which was all the recommendations and regulations in between along the way. There were various rules around capacity, eating outside only, takeout only, and so on. It’s pretty shoddy work. States have records of all their executive orders and they’re all public. They can make timelines for each states rules and then look at the data that way.

 

[Techster]

WTF is going on in China?

 

[WreckinGT]

I’m always amazed how different the circles we run in are. My company has a reasonably large footprint in China. They’d never text, email or post anything on social media derogatory to the Chinese government, but man when they get back stateside Katie bar the door. They couldn’t hate the response & treatment any more than they do. Got three out of Chinese “jail” a little over a month ago & they’re resigning because we’ve got no place to put them other than China and the job nature makes it impossible to telecommute from here to there. Let’s see- massive cover ups, blatant lying, abusive controls, incompetent leadership, slow & incoherent responses, etc are the themes on the ground among the few willing to talk. Most people over there are reluctant to talk to the expats right now for fear of becoming enemies of the state.

You know its pretty obvious when you are just making stuff up, right?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Some of you may remember a local hospital here I’ve posted numbers for. 7 hospitalizations about 3.5 weeks go. Then 22 about 10 days after that. Then 41. Now 3.5 weeks later it’s 61. 15 are now on a ventilator. It’s here. Sad.

 

[LibertyTurns]

You know its pretty obvious when you are just making stuff up, right?

Yes. Bless your heart. Hail Chairman Xi!

https://hongkongfp.com/2018/12/22/constant-fear-arrests-fuel-anxieties-among-china-canadian-expats/

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...ts-fear-extradition-laws-20190618-p51yv0.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...navirus-anti-foreigner-feeling-imported-cases

 

[RamblinRed]

Some of you may remember a local hospital here I’ve posted numbers for. 7 hospitalizations about 3.5 weeks go. Then 22 about 10 days after that. Then 41. Now 3.5 weeks later it’s 61. 15 are now on a ventilator. It’s here. Sad.

Sorry to hear that and sorry for all the families that are dealing with their loved ones there. The number on ventilator is horrible. I was watching a segment this evening where a reporter was allowed in a Houston hospital to see what it is like. They mentioned that they throw everything and anything at the patients before putting them on a ventilator because once that happens the odds they are going to die is quite high.
The head doctor in the hospital said that right now they are about 80% full (they have turned the majority of the hospital into COVID wards, but given how long people who end up in the hospital stay in the hospital he expects to be completely full within 2 weeks. The doctor said so far they have only lost 4% of the patients but he is worried as they fill up as once they fill up and supplies start to run down that is when the rates start to skyrocket.

 

[RamblinRed]

Alot of news today. Not much of it good in the short term but hopefully it helps us gets better in the long term.

Broadway has officially closed through Jan 3 and the talks are that most productions are unlikely to start back up until late winter/early spring of 2021.

AMC has postponed opening its theaters since the studios pushed the 2 big movies that were on the schedule for July into August (Tenet and Mulan).

NJ has paused its re-opening and will not proceed to the next phase which would have allowed indoor dining, no date set. Nevada also pauses reopening through the end of July.

Looks like most of the beaches from Palm Beach down through the Keys will be closed next weekend in FL. Jacksonville says its beaches will remain open.

Here in GA Gov Kemp signed two executive orders. One extends the State of Emergency through August 11th. The other continues to require social distancing, bans gatherings of more than 50 people (unless they are at least 6 feet apart), requires sheltering in place for those living in long term facilities through July 15th.

Jefferson Parish, LA is implementing a no shirt, no shoes, no mask, no service ordinance.

AZ has closed bars, gyms, movie theaters and water parks for at least 30 days. San Diego County has closed all bars, wineries and breweries.

Houston, TX Health Department is reporting that 15% of people in ICU in the city are in their 20's and 30's.

Cirque du Soleil has filed for bankruptcy since it has been unable to perform any shows since the pandemic began. They have furloughed about 4,000 employees.

the Governors of Oregon and Kansas have mandated masks in public places. Goes into effect Wednesday in OR (where 8 counties were already under mask orders) and Friday in Kansas.
Rhode Island has implemented a 14 day quarantine for anybody arriving from a state with a positivity rate higher than 5% - this affects 23 states and Puerto Rico.
Los Angeles County recorded its 100,000 case today and currently has 1,710 COVID cases in county hospitals. It is projected to run out of hospital beds in 2-3 weeks if current hospitalization rates continue.

Victoria State in Australia (Melbourne) has an outbreak going that looks like they are going to go back into a more restrictive state. 10 of the 18 Australian Football League teams are based in Victoria. They are looking to get out so they can continue to play.


I'll end the debbie downer news with this.
China has decided to skip Phase 3 trials and is going to inject some unspecified number of Chinese soldiers with one of the vaccines they have been working on.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine-idUSKBN2400DZ

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Speaking of no shirt, no shoes, no mask, no service - someone needs to run a commercial with Ron Jeremy naked except for a mask, and blur out his junk. “We appreciate the mask, but you need pants too.” Public service announcement COVID style.

 

[RonJohn]

Speaking of no shirt, no shoes, no mask, no service - someone needs to run a commercial with Ron Jeremy naked except for a mask, and blur out his junk. “We appreciate the mask, but you need pants too.” Public service announcement COVID style.

That would be difficult seeing as how he is on trial now for multiple rapes.

 

[dtm1997]

 

[takethepoints]

I mean, their data says the opposite of their thesis - demand was almost 100% of normal and then fell off a cliff upon the shutdown. How they can conclude anything otherwise would be pure conjecture. The data is simply not there to show it had already fallen off a cliff. It’s right in their own graphs.

They’re also ignoring history, which was all the recommendations and regulations in between along the way. There were various rules around capacity, eating outside only, takeout only, and so on. It’s pretty shoddy work. States have records of all their executive orders and they’re all public. They can make timelines for each states rules and then look at the data that way.

Read pages 5 to 7 again. Then look at the tables. And remember that the graphs are of regression estimates of logged visits to businesses per week and of raw data of same. You seem to be thinking that the regular time series graphs you've seen are the same thing. They aren't.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Read pages 5 to 7 again. Then look at the tables. And remember that the graphs are of regression estimates of logged visits to businesses per week and of raw data of same. You seem to be thinking that the regular time series graphs you've seen are the same thing. They aren't.

Just did. Now I know why their conclusions are so wildly incorrect. They’re using the dates of the “legal” lockdowns. So for example - that would be mid April for South Carolina, as that is when we imposed a fine for being out. But the executive order to shut down businesses of many types came a month earlier. So let that sink in. Bars and restaurants close mid-March, theatres, etc. They closed, trust me. Then the fines for stay at home orders was mid April. Those orders were to keep people home, not to force businesses to close who were ignoring orders. We still had more people out and about than they wanted, and so they wanted to lock it down further. This is even more proof the study has it backwards.

 

[slugboy]

A Texas ER doctor writes about his experiences in the ER with COVID 19: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1277648896525774848.html

The takeaway for me is that they’re getting exhausted, and they’re suiting up beyond what I’d been hearing about.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GoldZ]

More on Houston area situation mentioned above. Why do I believe this will have zero impact on indestructible youngsters?

https://theweek.com/speedreads/9225...uston-hospital-system-are-reportedly-under-50

 

[LibertyTurns]

WTF is going on in China?

It’s more than just coronavirus, intellectual property theft plus tariff wars. Those things are just media porn. There’s a reason the Maniac announced shuttering all flights from China at the beginning of the month. Some people don’t get it. They got 1 channel & it’s apparently overloaded.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I have difficulty reconciling these two ideas:

1) Asymptomatic COVID-19 infections are 20-40% of the total infections.
2) Unreported COVID-19 cases are 10 times higher than reported cases.

The second implies that asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic are 90% or more of total infections. Thus the first would seem to be higher. More severe infections would end up being seen in a medical setting and being counted......

"RamblinRed, post: 726860, member: 1776"]..........
China has decided to skip Phase 3 trials and is going to inject some unspecified number of Chinese soldiers with one of the vaccines they have been working on.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine-idUSKBN2400DZ[/QUOTE]

Canada also approved use for human testing. This could be good news once we get the results. At least it is quoted as being "safe".

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I have difficulty reconciling these two ideas:

1) Asymptomatic COVID-19 infections are 20-40% of the total infections.
2) Unreported COVID-19 cases are 10 times higher than reported cases.

The second implies that asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic are 90% or more of total infections. Thus the first would seem to be higher. More severe infections would end up being seen in a medical setting and being counted......

Yep, can't get much math by people on this site. #2 is just a spitball. Many countries have estimated they have 10-15x as many confirmed cases because their testing is woefully inadequate, their hospitals are overfull and people are just dying at home. See Italy, Spain, UK, France, Brazil, etc. These countries estimate "thousands and thousands" of people died unconfirmed, outside of the hospital, at home. If the death rate is even as high as 5%, that implies tons of other cases (ie a bunch of people stayed at home and didn't die).
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/mar/31/virus-dead-in-nursing-homes-are-often-its-uncounte/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ll-of-italys-coronavirus-crisis-idUSKBN21N08X

Here, we don't have reports of people going without a ventilator, people dying at home by the thousands, and our testing is massive - we've done nearly 35 million tests (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html). So when healthcare experts here estimate cases are 10x higher than confirmed, it has to be nearly all from asymptomatic people with a smattering of some who don't really get sick and don't want to bother with a test.

You're correct in that these two don't jive. If we have 10x as many cases here as there are confirmed, then asymptomatics have to be 90% and the rest of the world then probably has 30x as many cases as confirmed.

 

[LibertyTurns]

@GTNavyNuke @bwelbo The news is confounding. Woke up to “cases in Florida still rising” yet daily total is 60% of the peak & progressively lower the last 3 days. Can’t trust anyone to write anything half accurate anymore. Thank God the actual data is available to look at with our own eyes in many cases.

Whoever coined the phrase “media porn” nailed it.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

@GTNavyNuke @bwelbo The news is confounding. Woke up to “cases in Florida still rising” yet daily total is 60% of the peak & progressively lower the last 3 days. Can’t trust anyone to write anything half accurate anymore. Thank God the actual data is available to look at with our own eyes in many cases.

Whoever coined the phrase “media porn” nailed it.

In many places (where I live included), testing volumes vary throughout the week. Friday/Saturday are usually the peak numbers (results back from all the tests during the week) and Monday/Tuesday are usually the lowest (less tests taken over the weekend). Maybe they're comparing yesterday's number to the week before?

Yesterday in South Carolina, we had 1300 cases, which is down 20% from the peak a few days earlier. But Monday a week ago we had 1,000 cases - so comparing to the same day it was up 30%. I guess people can spin it however they want huh. I prefer to look at the week to week as its more apples to apples. So given we were up 30% here, I'd expect we get close to 2,000 new cases on Friday. I don't expect the downtrend the last couple days to continue.

 

[Techster]