Milwaukee
Banned
- Messages
- 7,277
- Location
- Milwaukee, WI
- Status
Supersizethatorder-mutt
Banned
- Messages
- 13,443
- Location
- Augusta, GA
There are no more elderly people in nursing homes for Cuomo to kill. DeSantis, if he did nothing else, at least took measures to protect the nursing homes there.
Deleted member 2897
Guest
New York has 25,000 deaths. Florida has 3,000...and a higher population. Florida has twice as many elderly people. There is nothing in the next month that would materially change the comparison.
potatohead
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 602
I live in a country that has people that are "too tough" for science. It's like people who think only sissies put on sunscreen. How stunningly stupid do you have to be to think you can "out tough" a virus?
It sucks for the doctors that have pushed for closures because they knew if the closures were successful we could flatten the curve, reduce hospitalization, raise awareness, and reduce deaths. BUT they also knew if the closures succeeded and the infection rate would stagnate and deaths would slow (which was the mother ****ing point of the closures) then people on the internet (see this board as an example) would exclaim, "sEe?? It WaSn'T tHaT bAd!!! i WaNt MuH fReEdOmS!!!"
Surely everyone on here understands that what we won't know the outcome of what we're doing TODAY until next month or so, as far as infections and deaths? Right, we get that? So before everyone jumps in a circle jerk down in Florida or wherever the hell else...just bear that in mind. I hope and pray its not bad, what kind of monster would wish bad things on any fellow American. Conversely, what kind of person trivializes the death of a 100k+ Americans in 6 months? This has brought out the worst of us...trash.
It sucks for the doctors that have pushed for closures because they knew if the closures were successful we could flatten the curve, reduce hospitalization, raise awareness, and reduce deaths. BUT they also knew if the closures succeeded and the infection rate would stagnate and deaths would slow (which was the mother ****ing point of the closures) then people on the internet (see this board as an example) would exclaim, "sEe?? It WaSn'T tHaT bAd!!! i WaNt MuH fReEdOmS!!!"
Surely everyone on here understands that what we won't know the outcome of what we're doing TODAY until next month or so, as far as infections and deaths? Right, we get that? So before everyone jumps in a circle jerk down in Florida or wherever the hell else...just bear that in mind. I hope and pray its not bad, what kind of monster would wish bad things on any fellow American. Conversely, what kind of person trivializes the death of a 100k+ Americans in 6 months? This has brought out the worst of us...trash.
potatohead
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 602
For being such a masculine guy, he sure does act like a little ***** about wearing a mask. Don't want to wear a mask? Good for you. Feewings get hurt when people look at you funny? Oh my gosh, poor boy. Guys a *****.
Deleted member 2897
Guest
Again, you’re close. But a little off. These states have been open for a month. Cases have been increasing for weeks. Why would there be a 6 week delay for hospitalizations? That’s not the time lags this disease has.
potatohead
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 602
We'll see!!! Were you the guy on here praising Sweden's model? As of today, they have one of the highest rates per capita of death, cases, and they're neighbors are still not allowing their citizens to travel there. Also, they failed to hit their infection goal. Soooo...
I guess what I'm saying is that anyone crowing about success should probably hold it in a bit longer, say, until there is a vaccine? Seems like a safe bet. But I know we got some PhDs and MDs on the board....
WreckinGT
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 3,159
If you are presenting line charts with only two data points on them then you are either hiding something or you aren’t the sharpest tool in the shed.
Deleted member 2897
Guest
No, I was the one on here criticizing it as the worst possible option.
forensicbuzz
21st Century Throwback Dad
- Messages
- 8,847
- Location
- North Shore, Chicago
I know you're talking about Illinois, right? For better or worse, birthplace of Hillary Clinton and Launching Pad for Burak Obama! (I think Pritzker has done a fabulous job)
forensicbuzz
21st Century Throwback Dad
- Messages
- 8,847
- Location
- North Shore, Chicago
I have a 68 year old colleague in Texas who has been bragging that he has only worn a mask once. This is a highly educated engineer, and someone I generally respect.
- Messages
- 5,862
Hey guys, took a week off of work, went hiking every day - was a great break. Last week was head buried in work.
Not going to wade through the last 80 pages I missed.
I'm still in sort of a meh place in terms of data. I think there are 2 extremes that are both missing the picture.
Those that say everything is fine and it is basically over are likely fooling themselves. Those that think the whole place is going to fall apart are also off.
The likely outcome is more in the middle.
At the US level it is great to see deaths continue to trend down, now averaging under 700 a day for a 7 day avg. But that still makes the virus the 3rd leading cause of death in the US.
What is more concerning is that cases have been rising for a little over a week now nationally - largely due to increases in states in the South and Southwest. A number of models a month ago predicted that the deaths would bottom out somewhere between June 20-30 and then start rising again in July. We will see in the next 7-10 days how accurate those projections were.
But the US currently has the 2nd highest per capita rate of new cases among Western countries behind only Sweden (Brazil, Peru and Saudi Arabia also have higher per capita new daily cases).
A week ago Monday i was almost giddy with the GA numbers, we were coming off the lowest weekend death total (6) since mid-March - that changed rapidly last Tuesday when 77 deaths were reported and by last weekend the 7 day avg death rate in GA was the second highest it had been during this entire pandemic (41 vs 42) and the case rate is the highest it has ever been. Cases and positive case % had been slowly rising for 10 days before that so it shows some of the lag from cases popping up to deaths increasing. GA is now averaging more cases and deaths than NY.
Right now 10 states are having record high numbers of cases and in a few areas hospitalizations are getting to be a problem - most acutely in AZ where 85% of all hospital beds state wide are now being used. Montgomery AL is at 100% of bed usage.
Nationally we are at a place where we don't really have a national crisis, but we also didn't really knock the virus down enough so that if it rebounds it could end up spreading quite quickly.
It has transformed from being largely an issue in a few big cities to being an issue in more small to moderate size areas. Right now most of the hotspots are in states across the South and Southwest.
We have some things going for us that we didn't 2 months ago
First, since no heath systems are currently completely overwhelmed it allows them to provide better care.
Second, we have a few months experience now so we have some better ideas how to fight it.
Third, Some of the most susceptible likely have already succumbed so it is hitting a slightly healthier population.
it will be interesting to see the next few months unfold as things could still go either way. Hopefully things go well and death totals stay at a lower level, but the rising cases are a concern.
Even with things better than they were 2 months ago life is going to be a little different
I had to review a 17 page presentation this week (everyone in the company does) detailing the expectations of the teammates and what the company is doing before anybody returns to offices. My first take away is that i've been 100% full time work at home since March 12th and my gut is that is going to be my primary work setup for at least the rest of 2020. I've heard that there will be a cap of 25-30% occupancy for the offices and they don't really want it approaching that. From the presentation we are expected to maintain 6 feet distance whenever possible and when we cannot we will be required to wear masks. We will also be required to wear masks in bathrooms and elevators - and there will be limits on how many can be in an elevator. There is also going to be no congregating or sitting at tables together in social areas. So whatever days i do go in (and right now we are not allowed to return to the office without express permission to do so and I don't think that is changing in the short term) it is going to be a very different experience.
Not going to wade through the last 80 pages I missed.
I'm still in sort of a meh place in terms of data. I think there are 2 extremes that are both missing the picture.
Those that say everything is fine and it is basically over are likely fooling themselves. Those that think the whole place is going to fall apart are also off.
The likely outcome is more in the middle.
At the US level it is great to see deaths continue to trend down, now averaging under 700 a day for a 7 day avg. But that still makes the virus the 3rd leading cause of death in the US.
What is more concerning is that cases have been rising for a little over a week now nationally - largely due to increases in states in the South and Southwest. A number of models a month ago predicted that the deaths would bottom out somewhere between June 20-30 and then start rising again in July. We will see in the next 7-10 days how accurate those projections were.
But the US currently has the 2nd highest per capita rate of new cases among Western countries behind only Sweden (Brazil, Peru and Saudi Arabia also have higher per capita new daily cases).
A week ago Monday i was almost giddy with the GA numbers, we were coming off the lowest weekend death total (6) since mid-March - that changed rapidly last Tuesday when 77 deaths were reported and by last weekend the 7 day avg death rate in GA was the second highest it had been during this entire pandemic (41 vs 42) and the case rate is the highest it has ever been. Cases and positive case % had been slowly rising for 10 days before that so it shows some of the lag from cases popping up to deaths increasing. GA is now averaging more cases and deaths than NY.
Right now 10 states are having record high numbers of cases and in a few areas hospitalizations are getting to be a problem - most acutely in AZ where 85% of all hospital beds state wide are now being used. Montgomery AL is at 100% of bed usage.
Nationally we are at a place where we don't really have a national crisis, but we also didn't really knock the virus down enough so that if it rebounds it could end up spreading quite quickly.
It has transformed from being largely an issue in a few big cities to being an issue in more small to moderate size areas. Right now most of the hotspots are in states across the South and Southwest.
We have some things going for us that we didn't 2 months ago
First, since no heath systems are currently completely overwhelmed it allows them to provide better care.
Second, we have a few months experience now so we have some better ideas how to fight it.
Third, Some of the most susceptible likely have already succumbed so it is hitting a slightly healthier population.
it will be interesting to see the next few months unfold as things could still go either way. Hopefully things go well and death totals stay at a lower level, but the rising cases are a concern.
Even with things better than they were 2 months ago life is going to be a little different
I had to review a 17 page presentation this week (everyone in the company does) detailing the expectations of the teammates and what the company is doing before anybody returns to offices. My first take away is that i've been 100% full time work at home since March 12th and my gut is that is going to be my primary work setup for at least the rest of 2020. I've heard that there will be a cap of 25-30% occupancy for the offices and they don't really want it approaching that. From the presentation we are expected to maintain 6 feet distance whenever possible and when we cannot we will be required to wear masks. We will also be required to wear masks in bathrooms and elevators - and there will be limits on how many can be in an elevator. There is also going to be no congregating or sitting at tables together in social areas. So whatever days i do go in (and right now we are not allowed to return to the office without express permission to do so and I don't think that is changing in the short term) it is going to be a very different experience.
Milwaukee
Banned
- Messages
- 7,277
- Location
- Milwaukee, WI
The every 12hrs negative post from Red. Good stuff.
Ignore the positive stats and publish the negative stats rinse and repeat for going on 3 mo now. lol.
takethepoints
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 6,096
Well … let's hope you are right. Present trends aren't particularly encouraging. Like they say, what you see today is where the virus was 2 weeks ago.
takethepoints
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 6,096
Yes. It's instructive to look at a comparison of the US and the EU on this.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-average?time=2020-02-24..&country=European Union~USA
The Europeans have taken on the virus and made some real progress. We have taken it on (sorta) and plateaued. There's no reason to get all that confident about our future with the disease; things might go well and they might not. Still, the decrease in deaths per day is encouraging.
Btw, there is every chart you could possibly want at this site, especially comparative ones between countries. Our World also has a downloadable dataset that is updated every day that you can access, if you are curious and have the time.
Update: I forgot to mention that many of the graphs can be done on either an arithmetic or log scale. The log scales - they show proportional increases - are very revealing.
Last edited:
takethepoints
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 6,096
This is an aside. You can ignore it completely with no damage one way or the other.
While I'm at it, I thought I'd say one more thing about evolution and selection pressure.
Many people tend to discuss evolution as if it was a random process and are puzzled as to why anyone would think that is valid. But they are basically mistaken and have been since Darwin. The mutation process in genes is random in character, usually the result of transcription errors. Further, most of the mutations organisms suffer either make no difference in whether the animal survives or not; after all that work to map the human genome, we found out that about 75% of it is, in genetic terms, wasted space left over from past mutations that had no effect on survival at all. A good part of the remaining mutations are harmful and lead to decreased reproduction. But …
Other mutations do enhance reproduction, given the ecological niches the organisms find themselves in. Then natural selection works to increase chances that those mutations are passed on as organisms (well … populations of organisms, actually) reproduce. This is most definitely not a random process. Populations with the right mix of favorable mutations out produce competing populations and win out. And organisms change. Some theorists look on this as a competition of genes, but that's an heuristic device; it's the organisms that compete and survive. This process is selection pressure.
Well, enough.
While I'm at it, I thought I'd say one more thing about evolution and selection pressure.
Many people tend to discuss evolution as if it was a random process and are puzzled as to why anyone would think that is valid. But they are basically mistaken and have been since Darwin. The mutation process in genes is random in character, usually the result of transcription errors. Further, most of the mutations organisms suffer either make no difference in whether the animal survives or not; after all that work to map the human genome, we found out that about 75% of it is, in genetic terms, wasted space left over from past mutations that had no effect on survival at all. A good part of the remaining mutations are harmful and lead to decreased reproduction. But …
Other mutations do enhance reproduction, given the ecological niches the organisms find themselves in. Then natural selection works to increase chances that those mutations are passed on as organisms (well … populations of organisms, actually) reproduce. This is most definitely not a random process. Populations with the right mix of favorable mutations out produce competing populations and win out. And organisms change. Some theorists look on this as a competition of genes, but that's an heuristic device; it's the organisms that compete and survive. This process is selection pressure.
Well, enough.
BleedGoldNWhite21
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,471
Yes, the stupidity of the two party system is once again the cause of many American deaths.
Deleted member 2897
Guest
Oh I’m not saying it won’t get worse, don’t get me wrong. But we’ve been open for over a month. So we are almost 3 weeks into the hospitalization lag time. So where we are now in other words should have seen almost 3 weeks of rising hospitalizations. A few places are showing that. A few are not. Florida vs New York, all I’m saying is the difference in the numbers is so large I can’t see that being gone anytime soon. Florida would need to see more than a tenfold increase in deaths to pass New York. That could happen...I just don’t see that happening in the next couple months based on current trends.
Deleted member 2897
Guest
To circle back to this, Sweden has 165,000 deaths on a US population corrected basis. Unfortunately, their model has been to resist any lockdowns, but then gradually relent bit by bit. So they've effectively done almost what everyone else did, only much slower. And their new daily cases continue to grow in contrast to most of Europe.
The WHO yesterday forecasted that within about 6-8 weeks, Brazil will pass the US in total COVID-19 deaths. That is an amazingly stunning prediction. Brazil has recently had some 40,000 new daily cases and have been hitting 1,500 deaths per day.
- Status