Coronavirus Thread

[MWBATL]

Just a footnote to @GTRX7 ...if your comment was limited to Georgia, it would have more legitimacy...as Gov. Keep never issued an Executive Order to stop such procedures. However, it is a bit much to argue that those were entirely private decisions made by health care providers and patients. I can put you in touch with my mother-in-law's oncologist who strongly disagrees with the way this has been handled and sees a drop of 70% in his new patients....all because of covid. Stopping cancer activity is just, plain, dumb...and I doubt that the vast majority if cancer patients were included in that decision making process. It is *that* type of bureaucracy that drives me nuts.

 

[MWBATL]

C'mon Navy, it's just the flu. Haven't you been paying attention to the thread!?

C'mon now....don't exaggerrate!

 

[GoldZ]

I am sure you could recognize my sarcasm in that statement. I have very sincere concerns that we have done significant damage with the shutdown order, not just to our medical industry, but to other industries as well.

Some on here might have you believe that the only logical choice was to remind shutdown. Forgetting that there were significant costs to that choice just as there are to opening back up.

If the shoe fits.....

My guess is, we both recognize said sarcasm in each of our posts. And no, I'm not one of the "some", as stated in previous posts.

 

[GoldZ]

I am not sure that any country has actually been successful in what you assume to be an easy task.

Thank you for pointing out the hypocrisy in several post on here that assume it's sooo easy. In the real world, it's very difficult, if not impossible to---isolate in isolation.

 

[GoldZ]

I don't believe that was accurate. Not by a mile. Governments ordered that non essential procedures were to be postponed.

https://www.facs.org/covid-19/legislative-regulatory/executive-orders

I agree, facts and understanding those facts are extremely important when deciding if government actions were appropriate or did more harm than good.

KEY words....non essential.

 

[takethepoints]

I think in the next 3 weeks you're going to see that you're wrong when you refer to the "mass of the public" thinking the risk isn't worth it. As technical people, we understand the science and the modeling and make our own judgments based on that. I think the general public wants normality and are tired of it all. Human nature, we're good at a short term fight, but anything prolonged and we lose our stomach for the fight. I anticipate the average citizen will move to the non-conservative side of whatever recommendation is put out there. I'm already seeing it in Chicagoland now that it has gotten warmer.

The polling data most emphatically does not agree, though there are some partisan differences (https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...increasingly-split-on-the-coronavirus-crisis/). I think you are misinterpreting a case of temporary cabins fever with a general feeling that everything out there is safe. Sure, there are people out there ignoring the restrictions. But that's a relatively small part of the population, even on the beaches. This is one reason why I keep saying that in order to open up and make it work, we need a contact tracing regime in place and meaningful levels of testing. The main way to get the population back to behaving normally is to, you know, make things safer. Letting it rip and hoping for the best doesn't help with that. I also have more faith in the good sense of people then it looks like you do.

But this is a moving target, as you say. We'll see.

 

[takethepoints]

Actually, based on all the demonstrations, as well as the business-as-usual approach a lot of beach-goers in Florida have shown this weekend, I think the mass public IS willing to take the extra risk.

Going to the beach is not a big risk, unless you get in a group of more then 10 people. There's always a prevailing breeze and most people "social distance" when they set their umbrellas/tents up anyway. Also, swimming won't give you the disease, especially in salt water.

Going out to eat? Well, that's a different story: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-industries-hit-hardest-by-the-unemployment-crisis/

This is directly related to feeling safe. Service industries are hurting because people don't feel safe using them. Period.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

C'mon Navy, it's just the flu. Haven't you been paying attention to the thread!?

Actually, no I haven't been paying attention. I only go to source data any more and avoid the soul draining idiotic dialogue.

And it's the "Little Flu" in Brazil. And maybe Sweden.

What will be will be. Peace.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Going to the beach is not a big risk, unless you get in a group of more then 10 people. There's always a prevailing breeze and most people "social distance" when they set their umbrellas/tents up anyway. Also, swimming won't give you the disease, especially in salt water.

Going out to eat? Well, that's a different story: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-industries-hit-hardest-by-the-unemployment-crisis/

This is directly related to feeling safe. Service industries are hurting because people don't feel safe using them. Period.

Service industries are hurting because they were physically outlawed from doing business for the previous 2 months except for takeout only until about 1 week ago.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Letting it rip and hoping for the best doesn't help with that.

Luckily nobody is advocating that.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Going to the beach is not a big risk, unless you get in a group of more then 10 people. There's always a prevailing breeze and most people "social distance" when they set their umbrellas/tents up anyway. Also, swimming won't give you the disease, especially in salt water.

Going out to eat? Well, that's a different story: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-industries-hit-hardest-by-the-unemployment-crisis/

This is directly related to feeling safe. Service industries are hurting because people don't feel safe using them. Period.

Did you see any of the videos from (I think) Daytona Beach? They were definitely not acting safely.

 

[RonJohn]

An article from Yahoo News about the numbers in Georgia still decreasing after more than three weeks since reopening. The story does say that it is still early, so still possible for things to go back up. However, it is not entirely a partisan piece.

Some things to note. "Open" doesn't mean that everyone is acting the same way they acted before. From what I have seen, businesses are open and people are moving around more, but people are not having big parties and hugging outside in parking lots. I wish more people would use masks. The debate about "opening back up" were highly partisan extreme stances: The government should stop any businesses to no business should be open until there is a 100% cure for the disease.

I hope that people in Georgia don't take the news that the numbers are staying good to start ignoring all social distancing measures. What should be apparent to everyone is that we can operate the economy while taking precautions for health. There is no urgent need for everyone to act the way they acted before the pandemic, but there is also no urgent need for everyone to stay locked up in their homes. (With the caveat that some people and in some areas stricter measures are probably still called for.)

https://news.yahoo.com/as-more-stat...on-for-the-rest-of-the-country-164734815.html

Looking at the IHME data which was updated today, the estimated numbers of infections in Georgia are still going down a full four weeks after Kemp relaxed restrictions. Two weeks after people were predicting a major jump in cases would show up in the data, it still hasn't.

It is still possible that cases will surge, especially after a holiday weekend. However, it hasn't happened yet, and medical resources are nowhere near strained in Georgia. I think it is apparent that strict closings and lockdowns are not necessary. I do think that if people should voluntarily maintain social distancing and wear masks in situations that don't allow enough distance. I don't understand why staying separated and/or wearing masks is now a political issue instead of a health and safety issue.

 

[LibertyTurns]

If you look at the February data, you see this year is a couple percent less than average. Also the data shows a fairly smooth increase to mid-April and then a smooth fall off. There may well have been problems with the data early on, the CDC has botched up some of the data and come out with a different format about a month ago. I'm sure we'll do better on the next pandemic.

I didn’t look at the entire dataset as I was interested in how Florida was doing seeing as my state’s Governor chose to take the course vilified by the media. Florida was in excess of the expected death rate for every single year from 2007-2017, the last year data is available.

Here’s what the data says: The CDC said the expected death rate in 2017 was 731.9 per 100k & there were 325 million people in the US. By their measure 2.38 million people should have died, but the actual was 2.81 million. In other words, an excess of 430k people. In 2016 the expected death rate was 731.4 and a population of 323 million would have yielded 2.36 million death yet there were 2.744 deaths. That was an excess of 380k deaths. Every single year has excess deaths.

I could go on but it’s pointless. The devil’s in the details. Every year the CDC says less people should die than actually die. You can’t have an average (mean) in a 10 year period where every number is greater than the average. It tells you the statistics are dorked up. The average number of deaths expected is about 13-15% above what the CDC says it is. I bet any insurance company actuary could nail the expected death rate within 1% every year or they’d be let go and now working for the government.

 

[forensicbuzz]

The polling data most emphatically does not agree, though there are some partisan differences (https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...increasingly-split-on-the-coronavirus-crisis/). I think you are misinterpreting a case of temporary cabins fever with a general feeling that everything out there is safe. Sure, there are people out there ignoring the restrictions. But that's a relatively small part of the population, even on the beaches. This is one reason why I keep saying that in order to open up and make it work, we need a contact tracing regime in place and meaningful levels of testing. The main way to get the population back to behaving normally is to, you know, make things safer. Letting it rip and hoping for the best doesn't help with that. I also have more faith in the good sense of people then it looks like you do.

But this is a moving target, as you say. We'll see.

I would agree about the cabin fever if everyone was wearing masks and maintaining distance. But around here, they're not. I think people are sometimes willing to say something to a pollster that they may decide not to follow. I think the rule-followers is going to be the small portion of the population.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Let’s say the death rate stayed stable since 2017. In Florida the average age of a C19 decedent is 77. I don’t know if it’s 76.6 or 77.4, but for argument sake let’s say it’s 77.0. The average age of death down here is 79.7, so coronavirus decedents are dying 3.4% earlier than expected. There has been 2250 deaths down here from C19 out of an expected 58400 during the same period, or 3.9% of the total deaths could be attributed to C19 if those are additive to the expected so we’d be at 60,650 deaths vs 58,500. We puffed the numbers like Georgia did and it’s not apparent how many were car fatalities, gun shot wounds, overdoses, etc but if we count them all we’re not exactly imploding. 60% of the cases and deaths are in Metro Miami. Looks to me like C19 is statistically significant, but isolated to one location.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I didn’t look at the entire dataset as I was interested in how Florida was doing seeing as my state’s Governor chose to take the course vilified by the media. Florida was in excess of the expected death rate for every single year from 2007-2017, the last year data is available.

Here’s what the data says: The CDC said the expected death rate in 2017 was 731.9 per 100k & there were 325 million people in the US. By their measure 2.38 million people should have died, but the actual was 2.81 million. In other words, an excess of 430k people. In 2016 the expected death rate was 731.4 and a population of 323 million would have yielded 2.36 million death yet there were 2.744 deaths. That was an excess of 380k deaths. Every single year has excess deaths.

I could go on but it’s pointless. The devil’s in the details. Every year the CDC says less people should die than actually die. You can’t have an average (mean) in a 10 year period where every number is greater than the average. It tells you the statistics are dorked up. The average number of deaths expected is about 13-15% above what the CDC says it is. I bet any insurance company actuary could nail the expected death rate within 1% every year or they’d be let go and now working for the government.

The ratio of this years weekly deaths to average deaths was less than average in February, rising in March, peaking in April and starting to decline in May.

The data makes sense and death certificate data is as good as we are going to get. I have to extrapolate death certificate filing since that part of the system is so antiquated.

The data is what it is. Too many people are dying. But we have to carry on and be as smart as we can.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The ratio of this years weekly deaths to average deaths was less than average in February, rising in March, peaking in April and starting to decline in May.

The data makes sense and death certificate data is as good as we are going to get. I have to extrapolate death certificate filing since that part of the system is so antiquated.

The data is what it is. Too many people are dying. But we have to carry on and be as smart as we can.

When you consider all the other communicable diseases we squashed by staying at home, the lower shooting deaths, car accident deaths...if you subtract COVID deaths from that expected number and consider everything else that is down, we have tens and tens and tens of thousands of excess deaths from something else still.

 

[upwgdrb]

Some good detailed information from a very large study. I would think the University of Oxford is a reliable source.


http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-05-07...world-s-largest-analysis-patient-records-date


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[GTNavyNuke]

When you consider all the other communicable diseases we squashed by staying at home, the lower shooting deaths, car accident deaths...if you subtract COVID deaths from that expected number and consider everything else that is down, we have tens and tens and tens of thousands of excess deaths from something else still.

The aliens have landed. Saw it on the internet.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The aliens have landed. Saw it on the internet.

Im just replying to the data you just posted. You just said that we’re around 150,000 deaths above the expected number. We have about 100,000 COVID-19 deaths. What the rest? And yes, deaths in other areas are down by staying at home for 2 months.

IIWII LOL.