Coronavirus Thread

[awbuzz]

Didn't realize fkn Cuomo was an expert.

I guess you didn't ask him over any of his sycophants [emoji15][emoji6]

 

[GTRX7]

While Georgia's shelter in place technically ended April 30, from my own personal perspective living in the heart of Atlanta, this week was the first week where business really opened back up in a potentially meaningful way. It will be interesting to continue to monitor the GA curve. I truly hope it goes down, but think we are most likely in for a very long and steady decline of the tail. We are seeing some bad news from lat week's numbers, and those numbers trail my eyeball test of the real opening of businesses this week, which would likely not show up for another 14-21 days. The 7-day rolling average is the thing to pay attention to:

 

[awbuzz]

I agree wholeheartedly that the 7-Day average is what to view.

I am hoping that the worst case scenario is that remains flat.

Hospitals and doctors offices need to be able to open up full bore until we show that there is a spike in the area and the need for ICU availability for SARS CoV 2 virus patients suffering from CoViD-19.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

I do agree with those who say we need greatly ramp up contact tracing. I think the mandatory shelter in place is more akin to using an axe for surgery instead of a scalpel . But that was the only tool we had on the table at the time. When/if a second wave hits, we need to trace and test like crazy but not lock down again. The cure is going to cause more long term damage than the disease.

 

[GoldZ]

I do agree with those who say we need greatly ramp up contact tracing. I think the mandatory shelter in place is more akin to using an axe for surgery instead of a scalpel . But that was the only tool we had on the table at the time. When/if a second wave hits, we need to trace and test like crazy but not lock down again. The cure is going to cause more long term damage than the disease.

Agree Mountain, but are we ready to do so? Question, not statement.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Agree Mountain, but are we ready to do so? Question, not statement.

I hope so. The alternative would be disastrous. I am think that excessive testing may be more important due to the large amount of asymptomatic people out there. But when you find one you need to trace that person down completely.

I am hoping I can test all my factory workers once every two weeks on an ongoing basis until the vaccine. Or maybe even once a week

 

[Deleted member 2897]

So, I guess the IFR is meaningless, huh? And it ain't .2 or .5 for those over 65. And I guess younger people can actually go to work if they are sick (it's still a semi-shutdown of biz).

Just keep making things up, it’s a good look.

We know from the data that teenagers and 20/30ers are a tiny fraction of those that end up in the hospital. I mean all the data could of course change, but based on what we know now, IIWII. And BTW, you don’t go to work when you have it or the Flu or anything else. Wait 2 weeks, then back at it. IIWII.

 

[MWBATL]

So, I guess the IFR is meaningless, huh? And it ain't .2 or .5 for those over 65. And I guess younger people can actually go to work if they are sick (it's still a semi-shutdown of biz).

No, it is not meaningless, Nor is the R0 meaningless.

It has just been exaggerated, and has turned out to be much less disastrous than the "experts" all predicted initially.

Generally, when someone has been proven erroneous in their predictions, one should consider no longer listening to them....but it is everyone's individual choice, of course.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

This seems to represent a common misconception -- that the only way that younger folks can increase the curve is by "going to kiss their grandma." Presumably, many of the younger folks out partying this weekend are going to go to the grocery store or the drug store, where many vulnerable people will also be visiting as well out of necessity. Or to church, which many people are saying older people should not stop attending and we know for a fact will be attended in high numbers by older folks. But, even beyond that, lets say that every single older person only stays in their locked down nursing home. What about the healthcare workers, administrators, and employees of those nursing homes? Guess what, spread in the younger communities is also going to increase spread to those communities, which will in turn increase spread to older at-risk folks.

I am not saying any of this is any easy decision and it all involves balancing complicated and important factors. But it is just false to say that large gatherings of younger people partying will have "zero" correlation to increased deaths for the elderly unless those people directly visit their old relatives. That is not the way it works. Everyone is a potential carrier and spreader and most connections are not direct. It absolutely will result in more deaths for the elderly. Now, whether you believe that trade-off is worth it is a different question.

I mean, none of that is what they should do. If you’re elderly you have no business going to group settings like church. Watch it on TV or the Internet. Wear a mask if you shop for groceries. Shop after hours. Don’t touch your face. Use good hygiene. You can live and not get the virus. All of this is well known. IIWII.

 

[MWBATL]

While Georgia's shelter in place technically ended April 30, from my own personal perspective living in the heart of Atlanta, this week was the first week where business really opened back up in a potentially meaningful way. It will be interesting to continue to monitor the GA curve. I truly hope it goes down, but think we are most likely in for a very long and steady decline of the tail. We are seeing some bad news from lat week's numbers, and those numbers trail my eyeball test of the real opening of businesses this week, which would likely not show up for another 14-21 days. The 7-day rolling average is the thing to pay attention to:

Personally, I don't put much stock in Cases Reported data. The data to look at is Positive % if you insist on looking at cases....which I believe continue to trend onwards in Georgia pretty steadily.

Ultimately, of course it is deaths that matter. BUT, we have clearly avoided overloading our healthcare system. Now, I am NOT as certain we will be able to rebuild that same health care system now that we forced most hospital systems to shut down and furlough so many of their nurses and doctors:

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta...thcare-furlough-1500-employees-600m-loss.html
https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...ees-to-help-offset-3b-in-pandemic-losses.html

But, we don't need no damned nurses and doctors, do we?

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

But, we don't need no damned nurses and doctors, do we?

Well, that is one way to drive down our overall healthcare costs. If you don't have as many doctors, they cant prescribe expensive solutions. (Sarcasm)

 

[GTRX7]

Personally, I don't put much stock in Cases Reported data. The data to look at is Positive % if you insist on looking at cases....which I believe continue to trend onwards in Georgia pretty steadily.

Ultimately, of course it is deaths that matter. BUT, we have clearly avoided overloading our healthcare system. Now, I am NOT as certain we will be able to rebuild that same health care system now that we forced most hospital systems to shut down and furlough so many of their nurses and doctors:

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta...thcare-furlough-1500-employees-600m-loss.html
https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...ees-to-help-offset-3b-in-pandemic-losses.html

But, we don't need no damned nurses and doctors, do we?

Just to be clear, you understand that no government mandated that people couldn’t go to a hospital to get healthcare during the virus. You get that, right? To be clear, those were deemed essential businesses and no government “forced hospitals to close or to furlough their workers.” That consequence had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the government controlled lockdown actions. That was the virus itself and peoples’ and hospitals’ own individual free market choices. If you want to complain about the economic impact of lockdowns, you have to be smart enough to separate which impacts are due to government actions and which impacts are due to the virus itself. That one was solely due to free market choices of individuals and businesses.

 

[GTRX7]

I mean, none of that is what they should do. If you’re elderly you have no business going to group settings like church. Watch it on TV or the Internet. Wear a mask if you shop for groceries. Shop after hours. Don’t touch your face. Use good hygiene. You can live and not get the virus. All of this is well known. IIWII.

Wearing a mask in a grocery or drugstore is only of limited effectiveness if other people in those stores aren’t wearing masks as well (which young people overwhelmingly are not). You also did not address my second point about the healthcare workers, administrators and employers at nursing homes that must necessarily interact with those seniors as well. Wider spread in the public a general will necessarily mean a wider rate of infection for those individuals, as well as family members of seniors.

Honest question, has any country that did not effectively prevent spread to communities as a whole, simultaneous do a disproportionately good job at preventing the death of seniors? I am not sure that any country has actually been successful in what you assume to be an easy task.

And, again, I am not trying to suggest policy or make a political statement here, just saying that I believe it is a certainty that wider spread in the community as a whole necessarily does have a disparate impact on seniors as well, no matter what types of steps are taken to try to prevent that.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Wearing a mask in a grocery or drugstore is only of limited effectiveness if other people in those stores aren’t wearing masks as well (which young people overwhelmingly are not). You also did not address my second point about the healthcare workers, administrators and employers at nursing homes that must necessarily interact with those seniors as well. Wider spread in the public a general will necessarily mean a wider rate of infection for those individuals, as well as family members of seniors.

Honest question, has any country that did not effectively prevent spread to communities as a whole, simultaneous do a disproportionately good job at preventing the death of seniors? I am not sure that any country has actually been successful in what you assume to be an easy task.

And, again, I am not trying to suggest policy or make a political statement here, just saying that I believe it is a certainty that wider spread in the community as a whole necessarily does have a disparate impact on seniors as well, no matter what types of steps are taken to try to prevent that.

Governments did shut off some regular healhcare - Anything deemed to be not an emergency was prohibited. That includes all kinds of things like cancer treatments any elective surgeries again if they could be pushed out into the future. If nurses and doctors are not using good hygiene and wearing full PPE, then they should be fired. In fact, you could probably sue people for violating those regulations. It is possible to protect the vulnerable people. But yes, if someone is behaving unreasonably – going to work when they are sick, and things like that, well that happens anyway. IIWII. All you can do is enforce rules and regulations as best you can. But when half of deaths come from 0.001 of the population, we know who should be aggressively protected and who is at an exceedingly tiny risk.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Just to be clear, you understand that no government mandated that people couldn’t go to a hospital to get healthcare during the virus. You get that, right? To be clear, those were deemed essential businesses and no government “forced hospitals to close or to furlough their workers.” That consequence had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the government controlled lockdown actions. That was the virus itself and peoples’ and hospitals’ own individual free market choices. If you want to complain about the economic impact of lockdowns, you have to be smart enough to separate which impacts are due to government actions and which impacts are due to the virus itself. That one was solely due to free market choices of individuals and businesses.

Well, not exactly. You had to be on the essential list & things like hip replacement surgeries, non-emergency type procedures, dental work, etc were all shut down 100% on 3/20 in New York. There was no free market choice, none. Your work was either on the essential list or not & if it wasn’t you were required to shutdown 100%. You highlighted exactly what’s wrong with the process. A rule gets enacted, the media spews a bunch of stuff about it, people believe the headline, few read the actual rule & understand the consequences, nor do they watch what’s going on to see if the intended rule does anything close to what was advertised or promised. Most people bumble along misinformed sometimes not even realizing they’ve been had. Perhaps you don’t care, but people’s lives are being needlessly disrupted or destroyed while we get jerked around by these imbeciles. Well I guess that’s what required to save a life!

https://www.governor.ny.gov/sites/governor.ny.gov/files/atoms/files/EO_202.8.pdf

 

[GTNavyNuke]

For Memorial Day, here's the excess death update. From 2/23/2020 to 5/9/2020, the excess deaths are projected to be about 153,000. That's more deaths (combat and other) in any war except WWII (405,000+ ) and Civil War (755,000). A lot more than Vietnam (58,000+). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

I won't be surprised if we get close to WWII given our lax standards.

Good news is we still looked to have peaked in mid-April. Bad news is the numbers aren't falling off as fast as we'd like.

Footnotes and links at https://gtswarm.com/threads/coronavirus-thread.21189/page-244#post-715196

You might want to review the “expected deaths” history. I found that info interesting until I realized Florida exceeded the expected deaths every month/year by a wide margin for the last 10 years. Checked some other states and found the same phenomenon. You can’t be above average for every single month and every single year for 10 straight years unless the number you’re using for an average is no good.

If you look at the February data, you see this year is a couple percent less than average. Also the data shows a fairly smooth increase to mid-April and then a smooth fall off. There may well have been problems with the data early on, the CDC has botched up some of the data and come out with a different format about a month ago. I'm sure we'll do better on the next pandemic.

 

[GoldZ]

Personally, I don't put much stock in Cases Reported data. The data to look at is Positive % if you insist on looking at cases....which I believe continue to trend onwards in Georgia pretty steadily.

Ultimately, of course it is deaths that matter. BUT, we have clearly avoided overloading our healthcare system. Now, I am NOT as certain we will be able to rebuild that same health care system now that we forced most hospital systems to shut down and furlough so many of their nurses and doctors:

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta...thcare-furlough-1500-employees-600m-loss.html
https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...ees-to-help-offset-3b-in-pandemic-losses.html

But, we don't need no damned nurses and doctors, do we?

According to some on here, no we don't need em and don't appreciate their advice on a changing understanding of a novel virus. If the shoe fits......

 

[MWBATL]

Just to be clear, you understand that no government mandated that people couldn’t go to a hospital to get healthcare during the virus. You get that, right?

I don't believe that was accurate. Not by a mile. Governments ordered that non essential procedures were to be postponed.

https://www.facs.org/covid-19/legislative-regulatory/executive-orders

I agree, facts and understanding those facts are extremely important when deciding if government actions were appropriate or did more harm than good.

 

[MWBATL]

According to some on here, no we don't need em and don't appreciate their advice on a changing understanding of a novel virus. If the shoe fits......

I am sure you could recognize my sarcasm in that statement. I have very sincere concerns that we have done significant damage with the shutdown order, not just to our medical industry, but to other industries as well.

Some on here might have you believe that the only logical choice was to remind shutdown. Forgetting that there were significant costs to that choice just as there are to opening back up.

If the shoe fits.....

 

[GoldZ]

For Memorial Day, here's the excess death update. From 2/23/2020 to 5/9/2020, the excess deaths are projected to be about 153,000. That's more deaths (combat and other) in any war except WWII (405,000+ ) and Civil War (755,000). A lot more than Vietnam (58,000+). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

I won't be surprised if we get close to WWII given our lax standards.

Good news is we still looked to have peaked in mid-April. Bad news is the numbers aren't falling off as fast as we'd like.

View attachment 8374

Footnotes and links at https://gtswarm.com/threads/coronavirus-thread.21189/page-244#post-715196



If you look at the February data, you see this year is a couple percent less than average. Also the data shows a fairly smooth increase to mid-April and then a smooth fall off. There may well have been problems with the data early on, the CDC has botched up some of the data and come out with a different format about a month ago. I'm sure we'll do better on the next pandemic.

C'mon Navy, it's just the flu. Haven't you been paying attention to the thread!?