Coronavirus Thread

[MWBATL]

An interesting side note about deaths in this pandemic in various countries.

Having been to quite a few third world countries and having seen first hand the living conditions, sanitation, medical facilities (or lack thereof) and population densities in places like the Philippines and Indonesia etc, I was wondering why the death totals in those locations were so much lower than the US or Western Europe, which have MUCH better medical systems.

It then dawned on me. Western Europe and the US have much longer average life expectancies compared to those third world countries. (Like basically 80 years in the west to roughly 70 years in third world countries). Given that this virus attacks the elderly in such large numbers with an AVERAGE age of mortality of 80 or higher.....I did a face palm when I realized the folks who would be killed by the Wuhan virus in those countries.....were already dead. They had died of "old age" or other causes 10 years ago (on average).

I am sure that poor reporting also contributes to the disparities, but I think we continuously fail to understand that this virus is mostly deadly to the very old or the very infirm.

Maybe everyone else already realized this, but I hadn't until I began looking at the numbers. If I had the time I'd put together a table comparing Chinese Virus death rates to Average Life Expectancy, and I think you'd see a very strong correlation.

There are (of course) some notable exceptions, which are countries that have already been mentioned as having done superb jobs of contact tracing, but using methods which may US citizens would find highly invasive. (South Korea and Taiwan, most notably).

 

[MWBATL]

But again, this is a pipe dream where there's a federal government that collaborates with state government and deploys it's resources to save Americans. That's not the America we've chosen to build.

In that America, the Navy wouldn't take CoViD patients and Javits didn't have the resources to take the patients. But only because our sailors were crippled by ineffective federal administration..

Wow, you really must live in an alternate universe. I mean....really!

First of all, the Mercy was stationed in LA. It was the Comfort that was sent to NYC. At least, in my universe, those were the facts.

It was a Federal government that agreed to get those ships ready on a crash basis and ge them to the largest affected states beating their own timetables to get them there by working day and night to prepare the ships and crew for that service. At least, in my universe, those were the facts.

In my universe, the Comfort was then modified to accept covid patients, on the fly, after initially being prepped to take only non-coved overflow patients. But, those were the facts in my universe. https://news.usni.org/2020/04/07/us...d-19-patients-crewmember-diagnosed-with-virus

And, the wonderful Corps of Engineers then switched over the Javits Center to take care of covid patients as well...in my universe.
https://abc7ny.com/coronavirus-nyc-news-updates-new-york/6072408/

It sounds like in your universe the facts are just so completely different that I don't recognize them at all. You must have Stalin (or Democrats) running your Federal government as opposed to someone whom the state governors described repeatedly as someone who stepped up to the plate with help and assistance. Too bad for you. I am glad my universe is so much better than yours.

 

[GoldZ]

Heeere's Aaron!

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/...esting-study-and-what-it-means-for-reopening/

This has the preliminary results from the massive Indiana random sample survey to determine (and it's about time someone did it) the actual extent of SARS-Cov-2 infections in that state. There's good news, bad news, and expected news. Good = despite an estimated 185K infections in the state, that's lower then the study's authors were expecting. Social distancing worked. Bad = social distancing worked. The lower infection rate means that, while the disease has plateaued, there are a lot more people out here who could be infected then was thought. I.e., we did slow the virus down, but at the cost of seeing a much larger then anticipated set of people who can act as hosts as restrictions are lifted. Expected = the IFR is .00578, about the same as was found in NYC and Miami. That's not good, but at least it is consistent. If that's the actual IFR, then, if we don't develop a vaccine, the number of potential deaths as the infection spreads is lower then we might have feared. But still pretty bad.

Since the feds won't step up to the plate and do this, every state in the Union needs to. And, yes, I'm looking at you, Brian Kemp. Again.

So, if the infection rate of Covid is similar to H1N1 in '09-'10 (12 months) at roughly 20%, a .00578 IFR would give us about 380,000 deaths! What number did we fear?

 

[takethepoints]

So, if the infection rate of Covid is similar to H1N1 in '09-'10 (12 months) at roughly 20%, a .00578 IFR would give us about 380,000 deaths! What number did we fear?

If the disease is less contagious then we thought - could be - then the figure is the one you calculated. But … a lower attack rate is unlikely to lead to herd immunity any time soon.

If we take 60% as the bottom limit for herd immunity, that gives us:

(330M * .6) * .00578 = 1,444,440 deaths.

And, without a vaccine or a reliable treatment and with continuing social distancing, the SARS-Cov-2 epidemic will probably continue for 2 years or so, plenty of time to reach the 60% immunity level. That's the scenario that has people like Carroll spooked, with good reason.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that and we get a defense, no matter how efficient, soon.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

If the disease is less contagious then we thought - could be - then the figure is the one you calculated. But … a lower attack rate is unlikely to lead to herd immunity any time soon.

If we take 60% as the bottom limit for herd immunity, that gives us:

(330M * .6) * .00578 = 1,444,440 deaths.

And, without a vaccine or a reliable treatment and with continuing social distancing, the SARS-Cov-2 epidemic will probably continue for 2 years or so, plenty of time to reach the 60% immunity level. That's the scenario that has people like Carroll spooked, with good reason.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that and we get a defense, no matter how efficient, soon.

That is still you opinion that the US would see that number and it is my opinion that you keep WAY over simplifying it and you are wrong. As protocols keep increasing the death rate will continue to rapidly drop. You keep using old data and then you keep assuming that everything will be static. It wont. Things are never black and white.

The virus does not cause most of the damage, it is the cytokine storm that some people have that does the vast majority of it. Now they are seeing more causes of the storm.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/...e-response-in-the-flu-and-possibly-covid-191/
Guess what is next. How to control this to keep the body from releasing a storm.

What other 100 items are being actively researched to control the storm as well as reduce the actual transmission. There are a 100 knobs to turn and the whole focus of this country are looking at them. To assume things wont keep getting better on how we handle this is very naive.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/20/chris-cuomo-took-less-safe-version-of-hydroxychloroquine-mcenany/

 

[takethepoints]

That is still you opinion that the US would see that number and it is my opinion that you keep WAY over simplifying it and you are wrong. As protocols keep increasing the death rate will continue to rapidly drop. You keep using old data and then you keep assuming that everything will be static. It wont. Things are never black and white.

The virus does not cause most of the damage, it is the cytokine storm that some people have that does the vast majority of it. Now they are seeing more causes of the storm.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/...e-response-in-the-flu-and-possibly-covid-191/
Guess what is next. How to control this to keep the body from releasing a storm.

What other 100 items are being actively researched to control the storm as well as reduce the actual transmission. There are a 100 knobs to turn and the whole focus of this country are looking at them. To assume things wont keep getting better on how we handle this is very naive.

1. Well … the math behind analyzing the course of an epidemic is rather simple. Also, right now, protocols be <structure holding back water>ed; the virus is behaving very much like any other that we have n0 defense for. I don't see any reason to believe that it'll give us a break until we get a vaccine or a treatment. And, btw, the data in my post is brand new; I don't know where you get this "old data" stuff.

2. Which brings us to the article. Here I think the word you've brushed over is "potential". As the article points out, the phenomena described has been observed in severe flu cases and in some SARS-Cov-2 infections. That is a very long way indeed from even a research program, much less a treatment. I might also add that the study's authors caution that trying to interfere with glucose production runs the risk of shutting off or degrading the body's energy production mechanisms.

Right now we don't have a single knob to turn on in severe cases of the virus except the one that turns on the ventilator. Like you, I hope we come up with something, but looking at the mechanism the article describes as a potential cure is magical thinking at this point. More research will probably get us on the right track sooner or later. But assuming that we will be able to find a solution because we are thinking about it and have a lot of money riding on it is, imho, what is naive here. "Hope for the best, plan for the worse" needs to be our watchword today.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

1. Well … the math behind analyzing the course of an epidemic is rather simple. Also, right now, protocols be <structure holding back water>ed; the virus is behaving very much like any other that we have n0 defense for. I don't see any reason to believe that it'll give us a break until we get a vaccine or a treatment. And, btw, the data in my post is brand new; I don't know where you get this "old data" stuff.

2. Which brings us to the article. Here I think the word you've brushed over is "potential". As the article points out, the phenomena described has been observed in severe flu cases and in some SARS-Cov-2 infections. That is a very long way indeed from even a research program, much less a treatment. I might also add that the study's authors caution that trying to interfere with glucose production runs the risk of shutting off or degrading the body's energy production mechanisms.

Right now we don't have a single knob to turn on in severe cases of the virus except the one that turns on the ventilator. Like you, I hope we come up with something, but looking at the mechanism the article describes as a potential cure is magical thinking at this point. More research will probably get us on the right track sooner or later. But assuming that we will be able to find a solution because we are thinking about it and have a lot of money riding on it is, imho, what is naive here. "Hope for the best, plan for the worse" needs to be our watchword today.

This is not meant to be a personal comment to you, just to the people running the models. But yes the math behind these models is simple - yet they’re somehow wildly and continuously wrong and they keep changing them fairly often.

 

[GoldZ]

That is still you opinion that the US would see that number and it is my opinion that you keep WAY over simplifying it and you are wrong. As protocols keep increasing the death rate will continue to rapidly drop. You keep using old data and then you keep assuming that everything will be static. It wont. Things are never black and white.

The virus does not cause most of the damage, it is the cytokine storm that some people have that does the vast majority of it. Now they are seeing more causes of the storm.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/...e-response-in-the-flu-and-possibly-covid-191/
Guess what is next. How to control this to keep the body from releasing a storm.

What other 100 items are being actively researched to control the storm as well as reduce the actual transmission. There are a 100 knobs to turn and the whole focus of this country are looking at them. To assume things wont keep getting better on how we handle this is very naive.

Hear ya Mountain, but isn't saying it's not the virus, it's the cytokine storm---a lot like saying: it's not the fall that kills you, it's the sudden stop?

 

[LibertyTurns]

That is still you opinion that the US would see that number and it is my opinion that you keep WAY over simplifying it and you are wrong. As protocols keep increasing the death rate will continue to rapidly drop. You keep using old data and then you keep assuming that everything will be static. It wont. Things are never black and white.

The virus does not cause most of the damage, it is the cytokine storm that some people have that does the vast majority of it. Now they are seeing more causes of the storm.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/...e-response-in-the-flu-and-possibly-covid-191/
Guess what is next. How to control this to keep the body from releasing a storm.

What other 100 items are being actively researched to control the storm as well as reduce the actual transmission. There are a 100 knobs to turn and the whole focus of this country are looking at them. To assume things wont keep getting better on how we handle this is very naive.

There’s lots of research ongoing but people read just the headlines & all they come away with is the McDonald’s Happy Meal response- gimme a vaccine & we’ll all be good.

Despite the mountain of evidence that this virus attacks individuals with weakened immunity we still got people on here trying to lockdown a nation for no particular purpose other than it makes them feel like they’re doing something. Doctors have figured out how the virus attacks, they just need to refine the protocols. The average person has figured it out the game & is tired of the hysterics. If you believe there’s too much risk, stay at home. Leave the rest of us alone.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Hear ya Mountain, but isn't saying it's not the virus, it's the cytokine storm---a lot like saying: it's not the fall that kills you, it's the sudden stop?

It is, If they can make the body do a normal response, then you have just added a parachute for the end of the fall.

 

[awbuzz]

I’m enjoying watching this discussion of water way too much.

Almost like watching waves on the beach?

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

To follow up with the ever increasing amount of data that will keep reducing the death rate. Here is a study where there is a strong correlation where normal vitamin D levels can prevent an over active immune response. Maybe they end up with a protocol that has a strong vitamin based component. Test the blood and then give the patient the amounts that they are low on. magnesium and potassium are important for proper blood sugar control. With that there is not a long drug testing phase either.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200507121353.htm

The study estimates that healthy Vitamin D levels should be able to cut the death rate in half

 

[takethepoints]

Hear ya Mountain, but isn't saying it's not the virus, it's the cytokine storm---a lot like saying: it's not the fall that kills you, it's the sudden stop?

That's right from Never Give a Sucker an Even Break. Fields lives on a mesa in the film and is connected to the valley below by an elevator. He's taking Norma Jean down the elevator when the rope snaps. "Oh, Uncle Bill," she says, "We'll be killed!" Fields: "Don't worry, my dear. It's only the last foot that's dangerous."

This film also includes my favorite Fields line. He's sitting in a producer's office waiting to see him and overhears his secretary talking to a friend.

Secretary: "If he isn't careful, he'll end up just like my Uncle Joe. Why, that man drowned in a vat of whisky!"

Fields (startled): "Drowned in. a vat of whisky, eh? Oh, death, where is thy sting?"

I tried to find a clip of this without success; half the laugh is in the delivery.

 

[takethepoints]

This is not meant to be a personal comment to you, just to the people running the models. But yes the math behind these models is simple - yet they’re somehow wildly and continuously wrong and they keep changing them fairly often.

That's because the basic math in the early models that didn't assume intervention led to such disastrous predictions. That provoked - thank heaven - a policy response: mitigation through social distancing. That worked to get the R down and changed the dynamic being modeled. The basics are still the same, however. Responding to the early models probably saved 250K or more lives here in the US alone; we'll get some estimates after we are through with the virus. As we try different policies, we will get different predictions over different lengths of time. But the basics are still there and, until we get a defense or get serious about a contact tracing regime, will still work out the same way, long term. It's up to us to change that.

 

[MWBATL]

That's because the basic math in the early models that didn't assume intervention led to such disastrous predictions. That provoked - thank heaven - a policy response: mitigation through social distancing. That worked to get the R down and changed the dynamic being modeled. The basics are still the same, however. Responding to the early models probably saved 250K or more lives here in the US alone; we'll get some estimates after we are through with the virus. As we try different policies, we will get different predictions over different lengths of time. But the basics are still there and, until we get a defense or get serious about a contact tracing regime, will still work out the same way, long term. It's up to us to change that.

CDC now estimates IFR of covid may be as low as 0.26%...about double that of the seasonal flu.

Just another in a long list of mis-estimates by the "experts". (What would we do without experts?)

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...fection-fatality-rate-could-be-low-026-nearly

 

[MWBATL]

What will be fascinating to see is whether the country's overall death rate remains above normal for a long period of time, or whether this covid phenomenon is really just a speeding up of deaths that were going to occur (by and large) anyway.

NB-we won't know the answer to this for probably years....

 

[FredJacket]

What will be fascinating to see is whether the country's overall death rate remains above normal for a long period of time, or whether this covid phenomenon is really just a speeding up of deaths that were going to occur (by and large) anyway.

NB-we won't know the answer to this for probably years....

Correct.

Death is undefeated.
If
X = alive guy
&
Y = dead guy
Then...
X=Y (when it's all said & done)

therefore... live well & prepare to die

 

[FredJacket]

CDC now estimates IFR of covid may be as low as 0.26%...about double that of the seasonal flu.

Just another in a long list of mis-estimates by the "experts". (What would we do without experts?)

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...fection-fatality-rate-could-be-low-026-nearly

If the disease is less contagious then we thought - could be - then the figure is the one you calculated. But … a lower attack rate is unlikely to lead to herd immunity any time soon.

If we take 60% as the bottom limit for herd immunity, that gives us:

(330M * .6) * .00578 = 1,444,440 deaths.

And, without a vaccine or a reliable treatment and with continuing social distancing, the SARS-Cov-2 epidemic will probably continue for 2 years or so, plenty of time to reach the 60% immunity level. That's the scenario that has people like Carroll spooked, with good reason.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that and we get a defense, no matter how efficient, soon.

The CDC just saved half a million lives. ...theoretically.

 

[Milwaukee]

What will be fascinating to see is whether the country's overall death rate remains above normal for a long period of time, or whether this covid phenomenon is really just a speeding up of deaths that were going to occur (by and large) anyway.

NB-we won't know the answer to this for probably years....

Ding ding ding. It isn’t a matter of time, it’s absolute fact.