Coronavirus Thread

[GT_EE78]

Actual Hospitalizations for Coronavirus Significantly Lower than Projections in Model
> this is good news for the hospitals
> the article includes info for 9 states (Ga is one of them,SC is not)
The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by White House Coronavirus Task Force officials appears to dramatically overstate the hospitalization of patients with coronavirus in the United States when the model’s projections are compared to actual data.The results showed that the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations as a percentage of regular hospital beds needed projected by the IHME model ranged from nine percent in Tennessee to 47 percent in Florida.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...ignificantly-lower-than-projections-in-model/

 

[GT_EE78]

Textile Industry Aims to Manufacture 10 Million Face Masks a Week (within a month)
> a few days old and not april fools - this will help
Businesses that normally make underwear are among those pivoting almost seamlessly to make protective face masks during the coronavirus crisis. Parkdale Mills Inc., one of America’s largest yarn spinners, has formed a coalition with eight other companies, including Fruit of the Loom and Hanesbrands, to produce 10 million face masks a week for health care workers and others, the National Council of Textile Organizations says.
https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/04...-to-manufacture-10-million-face-masks-a-week/

 

[TampaGT]

It is going to be a seasonal flu. Good news is it will disappear when the heat and humidity kick in. Bad news it will always come back. The flu that we deal with today is a form of the Spanish flu. The drugs that have been used are working it will just matter of a time to ramp up production of the two drugs combined with ramp up production of the rapid test. This will give us time until a vaccine (u of Pitt has started human trials) is found. I think they will play this year, but I think there will be some changes. They may start/finish sooner, shorter schedule.... if they don’t play this year, you may see some programs go under/make cuts to some athletic sports.

 

[gtchem05]

I am not sure where this information is coming from but none of the other coronaviruses are seasonal. So I do not know why we would expect this one to be. Aside from the hottest of summer days in Atlanta, there is not an environment for the virus much more hot or humid than the human body. It will not disappear because of heat and humidity kicking in. I will grant you that the virus probably doesn't like UV light, though. The rapid test will be like the rapid flu test. Valuable if positive, but will have lots of false negatives. Will work well as a screening test, but negatives will require follow-up testing. Plaquenil and azithromycin are 2 drugs that are being tried because we have no other treatment options. Neither of these drugs have proven to do anything for COVID-19. If they do work at all, it will be of very minimal effect. I agree, there will definitely be changes if the football season is going to happen this year. We are going to be washing/gelling our hands a lot more and casting shameful looks towards anyone in public with a cough or runny nose. We might even be wearing white and gold masks in the stands!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

32k new daily cases in the US Friday. 23k new cases the entire weekend so far. Hopefully that’s the start of a new trend.

 

[TampaGT]

I am not sure where this information is coming from but none of the other coronaviruses are seasonal. So I do not know why we would expect this one to be. Aside from the hottest of summer days in Atlanta, there is not an environment for the virus much more hot or humid than the human body. It will not disappear because of heat and humidity kicking in. I will grant you that the virus probably doesn't like UV light, though. Plaquenil and azithromycin are 2 drugs that are being tried because we have no other treatment options. Neither of these drugs have proven to do anything for COVID-19. If they do work at all, it will be of very minimal effect. I agree, there will definitely be changes if the football season is going to happen this year. We are going to be washing/gelling our hands a lot more and casting shameful looks towards anyone in public with a cough or runny nose. We might even be wearing white and gold masks in the stands!

The seasonal flu doesn’t survive outside a body during summer months. Ever wonder why the flu goes away in the summer months? I don’t know what you have read about the drugs but they are working. A test was done in France 45 people got the drugs and 5 day later there was a 100% cure rate. There was a guy in Miami Hospitalized And was calling family members to say his good byes. A friend texted him about the drugs and Dr gave him the drugs he had a rough night due to the virus but next morning he was fine and now has since check out of the hospital. A guy in Texas had similar results. It is also the regimen that is being used in he Far East.

 

[FredJacket]

32k new daily cases in the US Friday. 23k new cases the entire weekend so far. Hopefully that’s the start of a new trend.

Hopefully, that is good news, but testing still seems to be inconsistent across the country. I've started relying on the death rate as a more accurate piece of data to identify any "trend"... there is a lot of data & modeling out there. Hard to really find something reliable to indicate how bad it will actually get or when things are getting under control.

 

[RonJohn]

Hopefully, that is good news, but testing still seems to be inconsistent across the country. I've started relying on the death rate as a more accurate piece of data to identify any "trend"... there is a lot of data & modeling out there. Hard to really find something reliable to indicate how bad it will actually get or when things are getting under control.

The hospitalizations and deaths follow infections. Increases in diagnosed cases could be spread of infection or spread of testing. Just going off of rough reported numbers: Number of diagnosed infections is one to two weeks after infection. Hospitalizations are about two weeks after infection. Death is three to four weeks after infection.: Since testing isn't universal, we won't know if infections are increasing or decreasing until we see a drop in diagnosed cases. That drop could be weeks after the actual decrease since testing is expanding. Death is a better metric to look at to see what was happening three to four weeks ago. (Although not a pleasant metric) When the death rate actually declines it will signal that infections declined several weeks earlier. (Needs to be an actual decline, not one or two days of slightly less than the day before.)

 

[FredJacket]

The hospitalizations and deaths follow infections. Increases in diagnosed cases could be spread of infection or spread of testing. Just going off of rough reported numbers: Number of diagnosed infections is one to two weeks after infection. Hospitalizations are about two weeks after infection. Death is three to four weeks after infection.: Since testing isn't universal, we won't know if infections are increasing or decreasing until we see a drop in diagnosed cases. That drop could be weeks after the actual decrease since testing is expanding. Death is a better metric to look at to see what was happening three to four weeks ago. (Although not a pleasant metric) When the death rate actually declines it will signal that infections declined several weeks earlier. (Needs to be an actual decline, not one or two days of slightly less than the day before.)

Yes... what you said.

I've been checking this site out. US deaths are doubling every 4 days. It's been like that for about a week now.

 

[GT_EE78]

32k new daily cases in the US Friday. 23k new cases the entire weekend so far. Hopefully that’s the start of a new trend.

thats an oops. I've done that before. what u saw is todays cases so far.
if u use the toggle button you'll see that we had 34.2K yesterday
34.2 is already on the US xhart for yesterday but it often takes nearly a day to show up on the US chart.
during that elapsed time the toggle button is the only way that i've found to see the prior day's data
I'm assuming u were using the ones below
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[GT_EE78]

Hopefully, that is good news, but testing still seems to be inconsistent across the country. I've started relying on the death rate as a more accurate piece of data to identify any "trend"... there is a lot of data & modeling out there. Hard to really find something reliable to indicate how bad it will actually get or when things are getting under control.

I'd still expect to see a change in "new daily cases" to show up first.. There may be false alarms due to inconsistent testing, but a 2-3 day average might smooth that out. the lagging data might be more reliable but will always be lagging.

 

[RonJohn]

I'd still expect to see a change in "new daily cases" to show up first.. There may be false alarms due to inconsistent testing, but a 2-3 day average might smooth that out. the lagging data might be more reliable but will always be lagging.

The number of diagnosed people is also a lagging indicator of infections, so it isn't a what is happening today metric. The problem with using that to understand what is happening is that the number of tests administered is increasing. Are the new numbers because more people have been infected or because more people have been tested? The number of people dying doesn't depend on how many people are tested, or what the mortality rate is.

 

[GT_EE78]

The number of diagnosed people is also a lagging indicator of infections, so it isn't a what is happening today metric. The problem with using that to understand what is happening is that the number of tests administered is increasing. Are the new numbers because more people have been infected or because more people have been tested? The number of people dying doesn't depend on how many people are tested, or what the mortality rate is.

There are also huge errors and differences in in the way those deaths are being characterized. It's not a great metric either.
everything else is a lagging indicator relative to new daily cases.
True that we will never know when people were actually infected.
It's going to be hard to know when we start measuring new infections because of that inter-relation to test capability and infections already out there.
so new daily cases has a high uncertainty,that's true. we're stuck with that.

 

[RonJohn]

There are also huge errors and differences in in the way those deaths are being characterized. It's not a great metric either.
everything else is a lagging indicator relative to new daily cases.
True that we will never know when people were actually infected.
It's going to be hard to know when we start measuring new infections because of that inter-relation to test capability and infections already out there.
so new daily cases has a high uncertainty,that's true. we're stuck with that.

It is all a matter of scale. I am not certain, but I believe that most of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 are from diagnosed cases. I don't believe that there are a lot(as a matter of scale) of people dying with flu like symptoms that haven't been tested. It is highly likely that there are many many (as a matter of scale) people who are infected but haven't been tested. Therefore, as more people are tested the positive results will increase both because of new infections and because of more available tests. Deaths could be off by 10% or 20%. Newly diagnosed cases could be off by several hundred percent.

New daily cases is a lagging indicator to infections. Deaths is a lagging indicator to infections, but not necessarily newly diagnosed cases. There is no leading indicator although there are models and predictions. There also is no measurable immediate indicator.

 

[LibertyTurns]

The testing thing is really strange. Brother-in-Law #1 has base insurance, gets a test on Weds hours after being referred by his Doc. Brother-in-Law #2 I find out needed to be tested on Friday. Works for Fortune 500 company & can’t get one until tomorrow. Both live in Atlanta, #1 in Fayettenam & #2 in Smyrna.

 

[FredJacket]

Yes... what you said.

I've been checking this site out. US deaths are doubling every 4 days. It's been like that for about a week now.

Ha...Here is the link I intended to include. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Someone just posted on FB something that I haven't really thought about till now, but it seems to be true. Where has the Red Cross been during this crisis thus far. All I have seen is notices of blood drives. I thought the Red Cross was more-or-less our official relief organization.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

A bunch of lions and tigers at a zoo are now sick with COVID-19. The Chinese really now how to cook some strange **** up.

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom/news/sa_by_date/sa-2020/ny-zoo-covid-19

 

[chris975d]

A bunch of lions and tigers at a zoo are now sick with COVID-19. The Chinese really now how to cook some strange **** up.

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom/news/sa_by_date/sa-2020/ny-zoo-covid-19

And I saw this article just a day or so ago. Felines seem susceptible to it, but I’ve seen no reports of canines. Does China have a cat problem in addition to wanting to get rid of old or sick people?


https://knx1070.radio.com/articles/radiocom/cat-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-infected-by-owner

 

[Nook Su Kow]

Someone just posted on FB something that I haven't really thought about till now, but it seems to be true. Where has the Red Cross been during this crisis thus far. All I have seen is notices of blood drives. I thought the Red Cross was more-or-less our official relief organization.

U da ant Super!