Coronavirus Thread

[Deleted member 2897]

We are going to panic our way into an economic meltdown.

This is always how it happens. In both directions - on the way up and on the way down.

 

[flounder]

That was me. And yeah... I think people have been duped. In 3 months less than 5k have died world wide. 30 people have died in U.S. and half of those cane from a nursing home where people were on their last leg anyway. It’s only affecting a specific segment of the population so I certainly question all the panic. I sincerely believe the panic will cause a greater impact than the virus.

In 2010 the swine flu took out half a million people world wide and 12k here in the US. It also attacked people indiscriminately rather than focusing on the elderly. Hundreds of children died with the swine flu. Yet through all that we saw nothing like the panic we are currently seeing. I simply don’t understand why.

Data matters. From what I’ve seen this is not nearly as scary as the reaction to it is

The fatality rate of swine flu was around 0.02%. This is about 25 times that. So if the same number of people were infected with COVID-19, there would be 12.5 million deaths worldwide and 300k in the US.

Even if you go with the highest estimate of the swine flu mortality rate (0.08%), that's still 75k people dying in the US.

 

[jwsavhGT]

Interesting tidbit to share. Family member in Denver area works for a global company that is in the environmental testing industry. Right now they are on isolate/segregate/social distance until further notice. I asked if they had COVID19 at work and she said not that she was aware but due to the fact they have to keep the labs operational their entire network is operating this way.
Also found out that their pharmaceutical division is working on the vaccine.

 

[kg01]

That was me. And yeah... I think people have been duped. In 3 months less than 5k have died world wide. 30 people have died in U.S. and half of those cane from a nursing home where people were on their last leg anyway. It’s only affecting a specific segment of the population so I certainly question all the panic. I sincerely believe the panic will cause a greater impact than the virus.

In 2010 the swine flu took out half a million people world wide and 12k here in the US. It also attacked people indiscriminately rather than focusing on the elderly. Hundreds of children died with the swine flu. Yet through all that we saw nothing like the panic we are currently seeing. I simply don’t understand why.

Data matters. From what I’ve seen this is not nearly as scary as the reaction to it is

This is like saying, "Bwah, a million people died from scurvy 'cause they didn't eat oranges. But let's not eat oranges 'til a million and one people die this time. Schmart."

Perchance the medical establishment learned from prior mistakes and are choosing to be proactive?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Princess Cruise lines has suspended operations. Stock has gone from $51 to $17 in less than 2 months.

 

[Boaty1]

The fatality rate of swine flu was around 0.02%. This is about 25 times that. So if the same number of people were infected with COVID-19, there would be 12.5 million deaths worldwide and 300k in the US.

Even if you go with the highest estimate of the swine flu mortality rate (0.08%), that's still 75k people dying in the US.

First, we have no clue what the fatality rate is for corona. As of yesterday we know it's zero for people under 30 and the reported number is around the 0.02 number for people between 30-50. But we have no clue how many people have had this thing and never knew it.

Serious question. What is an acceptable amount of deaths to tolerate to maintain our way of life and our economy? There is risk in virtually everything we do. If Ebola was on the loose over here I would certainly be for shutting everything down. This is nothing like Ebola.

 

[YellowJacketFan2018]

Because of the Coronavirus the WWE changed the location of the filming of Friday Night Smackdown from Detroit to the WWE Performance Center in Orlando which has no fans.

https://wrestlingnews.co/wwe-news/w...-show-moved-to-performance-center-in-orlando/

 

[Deleted member 2897]

First, we have no clue what the fatality rate is for corona. As of yesterday we know it's zero for people under 30 and the reported number is around the 0.02 number for people between 30-50. But we have no clue how many people have had this thing and never knew it.

Serious question. What is an acceptable amount of deaths to tolerate to maintain our way of life and our economy? There is risk in virtually everything we do. If Ebola was on the loose over here I would certainly be for shutting everything down. This is nothing like Ebola.

Its a good question. We have about 70 million Americans over the age of 60 (the largest at-risk population). Many folks I'm reading about are saying 50%-75% of populations could be exposed to the virus. So if 35 million older Americans got infected and the mortality rate was over 10%, you'd have 3.5 million deaths. If that's half right and half right and 17 million older Americans got infected and the mortality rate was 5%, you'd have 850,000 deaths. These are all tough questions.

You can think a similar way about guns. We have 15,000 gun murders per year. We're apparently okay with the current balance of freedom and self defense versus the impact to community health. What is that number here?

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Almost 100% positive this virus emanated from the bioterror weapons lab in China. It’s damn near certain. The intent of the virus hard to say and it’s likely we’ll never know. Weird how this virus doesn’t seem to affect children but has an extraordinarily high mortality rate for old & infirm. It’s just what China needs to fix one of their major issues. You have to think like a Commie. They believe government can control everything.

US Intel may know, however in today’s climate they may propagate a false narrative or suppress knoweldge for political gain. It’s not just the politicians that have huge skin in the game, US intelligence is enormous money for fat cat corporations.

I think (THINK) that might be stretching things a bit far, but we do already know as fact that China refused the US request to send them medical professionals from this country and that they had in fact said that they might (no firm action yet) block all shipments of pharmaceuticals from China to the US. That latter move could be devastating, since the US pharmaceutical industry sold out to the Chinese several years ago, and the majority of our pharmaceuticals are now being produced in China rather than here in the US. And yet the dishonest politicians (both parties) and people like Hollywood and the NBA bow and scrape to that dictatorship, whose number one enemy is the US. Disgusting. It's too bad that too many people in the US don't recognize that China is our number one enemy as well.

 

[YellowJacketFan2018]

Here's what all the Professional Sports Leagues are doing concerning Coronavirus

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/03/coronavirus-update-nba-ncaa-mlb-xfl-nascar

 

[jwsavhGT]

http://www.enkiops.org/blog/2020/03...yFUTcbtelKcFwmqTbhVdtMqi_moynhufzPK5krPWA4uTI

Dualistic Thinking and Prophecy (COVID update, 12 March 2020)
Posted on March 12, 2020

Before the numbers, a question: Is the COVID19 pandemic a crisis, or not? In the US how you answer that seems to break along political lines. But the answer isn’t really a simple “yes” or “no,” and that is a source of conflict and confusion in a society that demands simple, sound bite style answers that hopefully break down along party lines. In many instances, the question “is or is not” (“to be or not to be” as some English dude wrote) is the wrong question. The Buddhists call this “dualistic thinking”. In the COVID crisis, the answer to the question above is a firm “it depends.”

The short version (and you know the longer version is below!) is that this is not a crisis for the vast majority of people. Even if you get it, it’s not as bad as many of the influenza strains going around. HOWEVER: if you are in a vulnerable population, it is as much as 10 times deadlier than the flu. In addition, because of the rapid progression, lack of immunity, and severe respiratory distress of patients who present for treatment, it is a potential catastrophe for our health care system, which does not have the capacity to deal with this. Thus the contradiction and conflict: for most people it’s not a big deal, but for the health care system it risks overload, and for vulnerable populations, it’s deadly. So how do you balance all that, prepare, but not scare people and wreck the economy? Clearly, not how we’re doing things at the moment …

So here is where we are: If you look at the progression in Hubei, the hospitalization rate is converging to about 0.12% based on the data as of yesterday (11 March 2020). In Korea it is virtually identical – 0.11% (which is why I “trust” the China numbers, with reservations). The mortality rate for those hospitalized is 4.5% in Hubei and 0.77% in Korea. Why the big difference? Much better health care system and more aggressive intervention.

In Italy expect to see the numbers continue to climb in a scary way for a the next week. They are “only” at a 0.06% hospitalization rate. Iran is also only about halfway into the progression, based on Hubei/ROK (and supplemented with the data from the Diamond Princess “petri dish”). Italy’s mortality rate for hospitalized cases is about 6.2% – a lot higher than Hubei. Why? I suspect two reasons. First, it is an older population. Second, I suspect the China numbers are not including all of the early deaths. So there is still a lot of “upside” to the Italy numbers, and the European cases and fatalities will continue to “skyrocket,” but no need to panic: this is expected and fits the progression.

The scary thing about Italy is what this indicates is possible here in the US. Using the available data, the US can expect approximately 380,000 people requiring hospitalization, and about 20,000 deaths. That sounds like a huge number – but it isn’t. The 2017 H3N2 influenza outbreak hospitalized 810,000 and killed 61,000. HOWEVER those were spread out over a whole season, and the fraction of cases requiring ICU care was smaller, so while it caused a lot of strain on the health care system (largely unnoticed by the public) it wasn’t as bad as COVID19 is likely to be. The next couple of months will be rough.

On Economics: for what it’s worth, I think the travel ban with Europe is a waste of time at this point, and causing far more economic harm than medical good. I’m rather surprised the administration is doing it. The time to implement that kind of travel restriction was over a month ago. It’s probably pointless now; the virus is here, and spreading. A few more cases from outside aren’t going to make much difference, and the economic harm is significant. What we are seeing in the economy is a mix of COVID19 fear, a needed correction in the markets, internal turmoil in the oil markets, and issues related to the already distorted credit markets. It’s complicated – but COVID is the trigger that has caused underlying structural problems to surface.

So what does all that mean to you? In short, same as it ever was: Wash your hands, don’t touch your face, don’t freak out. The best source of practical information is at the CDC web site, and the DHS/FEMA “ready.gov” pandemic preparation site. Essentially, these are common sense actions. But here are a couple of things to emphasize: If you or a member of your family is over 65 (and especially over 75), or has health problems (especially respiratory or immune system issues), you should take some extra precautions. Avoid crowds, limit travel where you will be exposed to people, be super-fastidious about hygiene, and so forth, until this thing subsides, hopefully in a few months. If you have family in the hospital or long term care facility (or living on their own for that matter) you may need to hold off visiting for a while. Call often, make sure they are OK, and that they understand why this needs to be. Some other suggestions are to get a good thermometer (the no-touch ones are getting reasonably priced, just make sure it is reliable), and build a “baseline” temperature profile for your family. 98.6F is the accepted average, but that may not be your number. A two degree above normal temperature is considered a fever. My “normal” temperature is around a degree lower than that, so if I’m at 99.6, I’m running a two degree temperature and something’s up. (PS – I’m not, I’m a cool 97.4F this morning ).

Finally, a warning: you are hearing a lot of really scary numbers and projections. Many of these are out of context or just plain wrong (like Dr. Fauci’s “10% mortality rate” quote), and people are doing forecasts that are way out on the far end of the probability curve. Take some advice from Saint Augustine:


He was actually talking about astrologers …

 

[Deleted member 2897]

 

[WreckinGT]

First, we have no clue what the fatality rate is for corona. As of yesterday we know it's zero for people under 30 and the reported number is around the 0.02 number for people between 30-50. But we have no clue how many people have had this thing and never knew it.

Serious question. What is an acceptable amount of deaths to tolerate to maintain our way of life and our economy? There is risk in virtually everything we do. If Ebola was on the loose over here I would certainly be for shutting everything down. This is nothing like Ebola.

The impact on our current way of life is temporary. We will eventually have a better understanding of it, better tests for it, better access to those tests, have vaccines for it, etc. My guess is that come September we will all still be packed in together at BDS. Life will go back to normal and the economy will recover. If we let it spread now without any effort to contain it then thousands, if not millions would needlessly die. Im not sure why you would want to go that route. Temporary life convenience doesn't seem to be worth thousands of lives to me, but maybe we differ on that. Would your advice to Italy be open everything back up and stop worrying about it?

 

[dtm1997]

 

[LibertyTurns]

@jwsavhGT Fantastic post!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

After watching him deliberately touch all the microphones and recording devices at that press conference, and after reading this about how he was going through everyone else's stuff, its pretty clear to me this is a case of intentional virus sabotage. I would sue him broke.

 

[GT_EE78]

You're right. This is just all hype. Until enough people die to make someone like you happy we should just continue living life.

I'm sure the rest of us are glad most other people are taking this seriously to keep the deaths from spiraling. Don't worry, we are all witnessing in real time what happens when the government of one of the largest developed countries isn't taking this seriously. I just hope you're right...this is all just hype and most people are being duped. For the sake of the elderly and those not insured, we hope it's what you're saying.

False. Just complete and utter BS.. You should start by taking three deep breaths.

 

[jwsavhGT]

After watching him deliberately touch all the microphones and recording devices at that press conference, and after reading this about how he was going through everyone else's stuff, its pretty clear to me this is a case of intentional virus sabotage. I would sue him broke.

I showed that video to my husband and we both agree that this bozo should be arrested for public endangerment.

 

[dtm1997]

 

[kg01]

Omfg that's strong.