Coronavirus Thread

[CTJacket]

Well — again — no one here needs to be reminded again of biology and how the virus can be spread. And that was never my question.

To your point — and it’s precisely my whole point of this — unless you’re wearing N95 it’s not making much, if any, difference.

What we have now is most of society walking around with a false sense of security of having a mask — because of the predictable media and social affirmation that “you’re a good person and those not wearing masks are ignorant and selfish”, when in fact most of these mask-wearing people are just as likely spreading Covid because the masks are a sieve for the virus. Couple this with false confidence and flaunting social interactions, see: Protesters.

No, you should read what I sent. If everyone wears a mask - even just a cloth mask - it seriously cuts the spread.
I am very aware of the fall sense of security that is ever-present in our society. If you would also google it, you'll see that the countries that implemented masks have done the best job at slowing the spread. It's here, it's not going away, but there are ways to slow it to a crawl.

The guy that wrote that is an immunologist by the way. Here, to save you a click:

Masks - Wearing a mask while breathing, talking, yelling, coughing or sneezing catches respiratory droplets leaving your mouth and nose. Even with the most basic mask, virtually 100% of the large and medium-sized droplets are caught on the inside fabric surface. As the masks increase in quality, the amount of small respiratory droplets and droplet nuclei that get caught on the inside surface increases.


Quality includes:

• How well it fits your face
  
  
• How much air passes through the fabric (versus up past your eyes/glasses)
  
  
• The type of fabrics included in the breathing area of the mask
  

Despite all the publications on mask use, there are no hard and fast numbers to provide. Each mask is different, and the way people wear masks differs. That is why it is so hard for scientists to tell you for certain what your mask should be made of and how effective each type of mask will be. Above all, we scientists like to be accurate, but that is not possible when there are so many confounding variables.


At a minimum, it is believed a good mask will reduce 50% of emissions from the mask-wearer. Multi-layered mixed fabric masks approach filtering efficiencies as high as 90% (Ref).


I want to emphasize that there is not clear evidence to indicate that cloth masks will protect you from inhaling the smallest infected respiratory droplets (those droplet nuclei) from another person. The primary purpose of a cloth mask, when worn by everyone, is to serve as a control for source emissions. If we lower the respiratory droplets coming out of us, we can substantially lower the amount of virus put into the air, thereby lowering the risk to everyone.

 

[Dpjacket]

You're letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. My point is it could have been a lot more effective if it were done a lot more thoroughly than it was done. You're setting up a straw man argument whereby the shutdown is a failure if one single person out of 330,000,000 violates it, which is an absurdity.

And you "hope and change" rhetoric is inappropriate for this thread and belongs in the political section. You can't keep politics entirely out of a coronavirus thread, but you don't have to actually go that far out of the way to make reference to it.

I didn’t say it was a failure if only one person doesn’t abide. But to your point sure I could have been specific with a number: I don’t believe 80% would ever adhere to a true shutdown.

Now: You said the shutdown would have been successful if some properly. This too is a straw man of sorts because it doesn’t set any reasonable expectation. What in mind is the proper shutdown?

Hope and Change was indeed a political slogan. But it’s also synonymous with the idea that really don’t have a solution and the best we can do is it leave things to change. My statement wasn’t political.

 

[bobongo]

I didn’t say it was a failure if only one person doesn’t abide.

You said:
"But Bobongo, while in theory this makes sense really the only POSSIBLE way it would work would be to literally have every single 330M citizens quarantine for 14 days." (sic)

Every. Single. One.

 

[Techster]

I posted this WAAAAAY earlier in the thread, but just a reminder, there are alternatives to N95 that work almost as well. Since it looks like we are heading in the direction of local governments mandating face masks soon, this should be helpful:

https://www.businessinsider.com/homemade-mask-using-hydro-knit-shop-towel-filters-better-2020-4

 

[Dpjacket]

No, you should read what I sent. If everyone wears a mask - even just a cloth mask - it seriously cuts the spread.
I am very aware of the fall sense of security that is ever-present in our society. If you would also google it, you'll see that the countries that implemented masks have done the best job at slowing the spread. It's here, it's not going away, but there are ways to slow it to a crawl.

The guy that wrote that is an immunologist by the way. Here, to save you a click:

Thank you for the reference. Sadly, I think you know that there are also experts and agencies that say cloth masks are not particularly effective. Particularly with the variables of it being used properly, etc. Moreover, even agencies that do publicly emphasize any type of mask will footnote that with saying masks are not a substitute for social distancing, which we know isn’t happening either. So, really, all this has been my point from the beginning.

To my other point that I lead in with previously what we don’t here is the recognition that the virus will continue to spread — perhaps the end of this is for the ultra-at-risk and every person in touch with them be ultra-protective while the rest participate in the community immunity. I’m just recognizing the reality of the current situation here after 4 month, re the masks and shutdown solutions.

 

[dtm1997]

Hmmm... reading some of the posts in this thread this weekend...

 

[Dpjacket]

I posted this WAAAAAY earlier in the thread, but just a reminder, there are alternatives to N95 that work almost as well. Since it looks like we are heading in the direction of local governments mandating face masks soon, this should be helpful:

https://www.businessinsider.com/homemade-mask-using-hydro-knit-shop-towel-filters-better-2020-4

Well, that’s good to know especially if a person is an At-Risk person and didn’t have access to N95.

But you’re going to need to spread the word well beyond Swarm .. there’s likely many millions of people who haven’t seen this!

 

[Dpjacket]

You said:
"But Bobongo, while in theory this makes sense really the only POSSIBLE way it would work would be to literally have every single 330M citizens quarantine for 14 days." (sic)

Every. Single. One.

Okay, you’re parsing literals here instead of focusing on the essential point that a majority across all demographics, shapes, sizes and creeds aren’t social distancing and won’t.

And you still haven’t described what your vision of a proper shutdown looks like (that includes the consideration of keeping society running). It’s just so easy to say words instead there being a real plan that addresses the challenges.

 

[GoldZ]

Keep in mind that reaching 'herd immunity' in Sweden wasn't really the goal. The goal was to ask Swedish citizens to take mitigation measures on their own (not be mandated by the government) and keep susceptible populations from getting infected and not have to shut down the economy as much. In that it failed completely as a high percentage of deaths in Sweden occurred in its older population and in senior care facilities and politicians there are now promising commissions and debating what went wrong. That caused the Swedish Health Minister to apologize and say if they knew what they know today they would have had more restrictions "between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did". Also, their economy has largely shrunk along with other European nations.

Sweden is going to pass Italy's per capita death rate during July and will likely pass Spain during August. Fortuantely for them Britain has the same basic daily per capita death rate right now as Sweden (as does the US), so it won't catch Britain and will have to settle for the 3rd highest per capita death rate.

Sweden is also a warning sign for the 'just keep the susceptible safe' strategy. No country has really been able to do that. Given the high presymptomatic spread it is almost impossible to keep out of those populations, eventually it gets through somewhere and then takes off like wildfire one it gets in.

Also, note that Sweden largely does not try to save those over 80, they just give them pallitive care - but that is why keeping it out was such a huge failure.

The herd immunity goal is from their Health Minister for all of Sweden. He's the architect of Sweden's approach. I'm semi quoting an old article from when they were still defending their approach. Tragically, it failed and he is under the gun big time. I fear you are correct, in that the mantra of just, hide the gramps, is severely flawed.

 

[bobongo]

Okay, you’re parsing literals here instead of focusing on the essential point that a majority across all demographics, shapes, sizes and creeds aren’t social distancing and won’t.

And you still haven’t described what your vision of a proper shutdown looks like (that includes the consideration of keeping society running). It’s just so easy to say words instead there being a real plan that addresses the challenges.

YOU'RE the one who used the word "literal". Maybe you should be more careful in your choice of words.

We should have shut down as far as it would be possible (with exceptions for national security and immediate concerns of health and safety) for a period of time necessary to get this thing contained, and then open up. If you want an example, just look to Europe. Whatever is said about their response, the fact is they're far, far more ready to open up now than is the U.S. We topped the crest and had the slightest downturn and then it's off to the races. If we had just waited a little longer, we could have been in a much better position to open up. Instead, there is now a stagnation in the opening process and in some cases it is being reversed. How's that working out?

I know we can't shut down until there's a vaccine. But we opened up too soon - and haste, as they say, makes waste.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Well — again — no one here needs to be reminded again of biology and how the virus can be spread. And that was never my question.

To your point — and it’s precisely my whole point of this — unless you’re wearing N95 it’s not making much, if any, difference.

According to science, this assertion is false.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

YOU'RE the one who used the word "literal". Maybe you should be more careful in your choice of words.

We should have shut down as far as it would be possible (with exceptions for national security and immediate concerns of health and safety) for a period of time necessary to get this thing contained, and then open up. If you want an example, just look to Europe. Whatever is said about their response, the fact is they're far, far more ready to open up now than is the U.S. We topped the crest and had the slightest downturn and then it's off to the races. If we had just waited a little longer, we could have been in a much better position to open up. Instead, there is now a stagnation in the opening process and in some cases it is being reversed. How's that working out?

I know we can't shut down until there's a vaccine. But we opened up too soon - and haste, as they say, makes waste.

What? I mean 100% WHAT? We DID shutdown and contain the virus. “Just look to Europe”. That’s like saying literally “just look to New York City”. Except New York City did materially better. They didn’t have thousands and thousands of people dying at home unable to get to a hospital.

 

[LibertyTurns]

What? I mean 100% WHAT? We DID shutdown and contain the virus. “Just look to Europe”. That’s like saying literally “just look to New York City”. Except New York City did materially better. They didn’t have thousands and thousands of people dying at home unable to get to a hospital.

There’s a handful of areas in the country you could circle & if you could eliminate them the US would be the model for the world to follow: DC-Boston, New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, Miami, etc. People act like those of us in rural areas have the same issues these bastions of expertise are having.

 

[GT_EE78]

According to science, this assertion is false.

Is that "regular" science or "coronavirus" science?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Is that "regular" science or "coronavirus" science?

Both. Anecdotally, the entire rest of the world agrees.

Google can be your friend. There are 100s of studies large and small that compare singing, talking, sneezing, and everything else with and without masks...with and without social distancing.

 

[bobongo]

What? I mean 100% WHAT? We DID shutdown and contain the virus. “Just look to Europe”. That’s like saying literally “just look to New York City”. Except New York City did materially better. They didn’t have thousands and thousands of people dying at home unable to get to a hospital.

Yeah should have shut down longer. Shut down longer and more thoroughly and contain the virus more. Remember when we opened up? It was just after the crest of the peak. Too soon. As I said at the time - and my post has, unfortunately, aged like a vintage Bordeaux wine.

Not much denying Europe is in far better shape to open up now that we are. They had a rough time but they bit the bullet and they're over the hump.

 

[bobongo]

There’s a handful of areas in the country you could circle & if you could eliminate them the US would be the model for the world to follow: DC-Boston, New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, Miami, etc. People act like those of us in rural areas have the same issues these bastions of expertise are having.

Yeah social distancing is more difficult in a densely populated metropolitan area. I mean, duh.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Yeah should have shut down longer. Shut down longer and more thoroughly and contain the virus more. Remember when we opened up? It was just after the crest of the peak. Too soon. As I said at the time - and my post has, unfortunately, aged like a vintage Bordeaux wine.

Not much denying Europe is in far better shape to open up now that we are. They had a rough time but they bit the bullet and they're over the hump.

Our current problem has nothing to do with opening up really. It’s the same reason why we had 30,000 new cases every day during the shutdown - people aren’t behaving responsibly. Nothing much will apparently change that, and we can’t stay shut down forever. I’m shocked anybody would argue we should have run death through our country like they did in Europe Because you can’t say you want New York City’s numbers right now or France, Italy, Spain, UK, etc without having gone through that. Europe is not a model to follow...unless you want to just rid the country of a ton of old people so we can move on.

 

[MWBATL]

Just a friendly reminder to try to keep everything in perspective.....

Out of every 1,000 Americans, the number who have now tested positive for covid-19 is....3
Out of every 100,000 Americans, the number who have died from covid-19 is.......37

While the absolute numbers sound scary, the relative numbers are still quite small. If the person who has gotten sick or (god forbid) passed away from covid is a loved one, then for you it is a terrible tragedy. But for society as a whole, based on these numbers, it is not. Remember that between 50-60,000 Americans die each and every week in our country.

Footnotes:
@RamblinRed mentioned something about the US having a high mortality rate, but we remain well below the rates in Spain, Italy and the UK....all of which are around 60 per 100,000

 

[LibertyTurns]

Just a friendly reminder to try to keep everything in perspective.....

Out of every 1,000 Americans, the number who have now tested positive for covid-19 is....3
Out of every 100,000 Americans, the number who have died from covid-19 is.......37

We’ve had 2.59M cases in a population of 330M. The rate per 1k is closer to 7.9