Coronavirus Thread

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takethepoints

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I think the Michigan legislature would disagree. I have no idea what the laws in Michigan allow, but it sure seems like the legislature is not happy, and whether what she is doing is popular or not (I doubt very seriously the overall popularity of it), and whether or not it is within her implied powers, the legislature can still dump her, if they so choose.
They don't have the votes. And this isn't a matter of "implied powers". Police powers are pretty general and can be invoked by governors in state emergencies. The courts - usually - go along with their exercise.
 

takethepoints

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Actually, governors cannot do things that violate the US Constitution. When they take office, they are bound to support the state constitution PLUS the US Constitution. They do not have the power to do anything that violates the freedoms guaranteed to ALL the people by the Bill of Rights and the entire Constitution.
That's true. It is also irrelevant in this situation. State police powers don't violate the US Constitution except under very specific circumstances. And when they are applied the courts usually side with the states when a public emergency has been declared for good reason.

Sort like now.
 

takethepoints

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> Sounds like they will fight it out in court
Michigan House Won’t Extend State of Emergency, Votes to Sue Gov. Gretchen Whitmer Instead
Whitmer’s initial state of emergency order, which is separate from the stay-at-home order, expires on Thursday and requires legislative action to be lengthened.
Negotiations on that front fell apart on Wednesday when Whitmer refused to make any concessions on the matter, asserting she has the ultimate control of emergencies.
So the House voted to authorize Speaker Lee Chatfield to sue the governor, saying Whitmer’s “unchecked and undemocratic approach” is not the best way, ABC 12 reported.The House also passed a resolution restricting a governor’s state of emergency declarations to 14 days. Whitmer has vowed to veto that legislation.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...y-votes-to-sue-gov-gretchen-whitmer-instead/#

They'll lose.
 

takethepoints

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Hrmm, I wonder about that. When you say federal civil liberties, if you mean those protected by the Constitution, then the only "good reason" for suspending the Constitution that is written in the Constitution is "when in cases of rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it." A pandemic might qualify as an invasion, but I don't think that has been tested exhaustively (if at all?) in court.
I don't know where you got this idea. The courts give states a lot of leeway to step around or suspend rights when an emergency has been declared or public order is threatened. And sometimes it doesn't take even that. For example, take a look at:

http://www.socialstudies.org/sites/default/files/publications/se/6105/610507.html

And the fourth is handled pretty stringently by the courts. In fact, there are plenty of exceptions allowed, usually for reasons of maintaining public order or, again, handling emergency situations.

Now, if we weren't facing a highly contagious deadly disease, it might be another story. But …
 
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That's true. It is also irrelevant in this situation. State police powers don't violate the US Constitution except under very specific circumstances. And when they are applied the courts usually side with the states when a public emergency has been declared for good reason.

Sort like now.
When they close churches and refuse to allow citizens to congregate, then they are violating the US Constitution, and those are measures that have been taken thus far. In fact, when the Governor of NJ closed houses of worship, he was asked "what about the Bill of Rights?" His response was that he didn't even consider the Bill of Rights. Well, duhh, he HAS to consider the Bill of Rights, because it is part of the US Constitution, and he is bound by law to follow the Constitution. We fought a war in the 19th century over states doing their own thing, and, although everybody says that thing was slavery, slavery was still legal according the Constitution at that time. The war was actually started because the federal government said that secession was not allowed, and they were determined to preserve the Union.
 
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I might add to my last post the question that how can a state justify sending police to a private citizen's home and telling the parents that their child will not be allowed to have a play date with a neighbor. Do you seriously think a court would decide with the state over the citizen in a case like that?
 

GoldZ

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Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No
Wall St Journal via wordpress
https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpre...ve-many-lives-in-most-places-the-data-say-no/
Interesting, but authored by a semi-conductor executive. I'll take Fauci's view personally. Plus, South Korea says Hi, but in fairness, their reaction was a lot more than a lockdown. The key seems to remain testing, isolation, and tracing. A lockdown would be more akin to Wuhan, albeit a brutal one.
Also, I don't think NYC was necessarily an "early" lockdown, and most places have elderly in nursing homes, so why soften Sweden's deaths by saying a lot of them were elderly? I do though believe the density factor is legit. It's too early to say Sweden's approach is a fail or success, imo. Overall though it's an interesting article--Thanks for posting.
 

GoldZ

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-media-vs-flatten-the-curve-11588113213?mod=opinion_featst_pos1

This column isn’t about Sweden, but the press now claims Sweden’s Covid policy is “failing” because it has more deaths than its neighbors. Let me explain again: When you do more social distancing, you get less transmission. When you do less, you get more transmission. Almost all countries are pursuing a more-or-less goal, not a reduce-to-zero goal. Sweden expects a higher curve but in line with its hospital capacity. Sweden’s neighbors are not avoiding the same deaths with their stronger mandates, they are delaying them, to the detriment of other values.

The only clear failure for Sweden would come if a deus ex machina of some sort were to arrive to cure Covid-19 in the near future. Then all countries (not just Sweden) might wish in retrospect to have suppressed the virus more until their citizens could benefit from the miracle cure.


As some wise folks on this forum have pointed out numerous times, until a vaccine or treatment is perfected, lockdowns merely delay the deaths, they don't actually change the total number who will ultimately die from this disease. When do we decide that making 330 million people (minus government workers who pay NO price at all during this pandemic) pay the price to spread out the deaths is worth it?

<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/" rel="nofollow"><img src="https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state.jpg" alt="Statistic: Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States as of April 29, 2020, by state (per 100,000 people)* | Statista" style="width: 100%; height: auto !important; max-width:1000px;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;"/></a><br />Find more statistics at <a href="https://www.statista.com" rel="nofollow">Statista</a>
Agree as to lockdowns simply delaying the number of infections, but not so sure about total deaths, unless one disregards the reductions via avoiding the healthcare system not being overrun, plus the buying time concept when it comes to therapeutics.
 

GoldZ

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Interesting, but authored by a semi-conductor executive. I'll take Fauci's view personally. Plus, South Korea says Hi, but in fairness, their reaction was a lot more than a lockdown. The key seems to remain testing, isolation, and tracing. A lockdown would be more akin to Wuhan, albeit a brutal one.
Also, I don't think NYC was necessarily an "early" lockdown, and most places have elderly in nursing homes, so why soften Sweden's deaths by saying a lot of them were elderly? I do though believe the density factor is legit. It's too early to say Sweden's approach is a fail or success, imo. Overall though it's an interesting article--Thanks for posting.
As for being too early to grade Sweden, it's possible that their last week of April's surge in infections will impact the death count about a week or 2 from now, depending on ages of the newly infected people.
 

Deleted member 2897

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As for being too early to grade Sweden, it's possible that their last week of April's surge in infections will impact the death count about a week or 2 from now, depending on ages of the newly infected people.

Sweden has 50% more deaths than the US on a per capita basis. South Korea has a police enforced quarantine process where they track you using your GPS, credit card transactions, and video surveillance. They also publish your name and information when you test positive, your license plate number for your car, etc.
 

GTRX7

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If you drew a trend line, the answer is yes. Furthermore, the absolute value of the numbers are extremely low. In other words, if we had massively high numbers, dropping for 2-3 weeks may not be enough to reopen. Not only are we 3 weeks passed our peek (our state runs weekly totals which smooth the data), but the numbers are also small. We only have 60 in ICU in the entire state and are at 15% capacity. The numbers are well well below average for other states and we are well well below hospital capacity.

I live in a 500,000 person Charleston County. We’ve had less than 10 cases a day 18 of the last 20 days. We’ve had 3 days of 0 new cases. We’ve been running about 1/3rd our peak daily number for 3 weeks now.

As I stated in my original post, I agree with you that the overall numbers in South Carolina are low and seem favorable to reopening. However, I am confused by your reply about the data trending down.

The data does not look to me to be trending down for South Carolina for the last 14 days, either in new cases per day (last week was worse than two weeks ago) or in new deaths per day (which is actually trending up). Maybe your point is that they would be trending down if you put the data on a logarithmic scale? Meaning that it is no longer growing exponentially. That would be true, but I do not believe that that is how the guidelines are set out.
 

MountainBuzzMan

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Looking at that graph, I don't see a sustained decline in cases over a 14-day period.
Maybe it is not that graph, but the percentage of positive results as the amount of testing has gone up a good bit. Had the testing been at the same rate the number of "new" cases would have dropped. But I don't know what the recommended positive results rates are for opening back up
 

Deleted member 2897

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As I stated in my original post, I agree with you that the overall numbers in South Carolina are low and seem favorable to reopening. However, I am confused by your reply about the data trending down.

The data does not look to me to be trending down for South Carolina for the last 14 days, either in new cases per day (last week was worse than two weeks ago) or in new deaths per day (which is actually trending up). Maybe your point is that they would be trending down if you put the data on a logarithmic scale? Meaning that it is no longer growing exponentially. That would be true, but I do not believe that that is how the guidelines are set out.

SC DHEC says our peak weekly number was around 1300 3 weeks ago. Since then it’s been around 1150-1250. Furthermore, most of the state has dropped dramatically, while Greenville area has gone up. The state is way way below hospital capacity and our infection rate is very low and our testing rate is adequate. In Greenville they need to be careful, but elsewhere is pretty dead. For example, we had 200 new cases statewide yesterday (peak was 270-300) - we had 3 in Charleston County, which is 15% of the states population. But Greenville/Spartanburg was 50.
 

gthxxxx

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I don't know where you got this idea.
The quote is directly from the Constitution itself: https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript, Article I, Section 9.
The courts give states a lot of leeway to step around or suspend rights when an emergency has been declared or public order is threatened. And sometimes it doesn't take even that. For example, take a look at:

http://www.socialstudies.org/sites/default/files/publications/se/6105/610507.html

And the fourth is handled pretty stringently by the courts. In fact, there are plenty of exceptions allowed, usually for reasons of maintaining public order or, again, handling emergency situations.

Now, if we weren't facing a highly contagious deadly disease, it might be another story. But …
I skimmed your link; none of the emergency situations have to do with a pandemic. Actually, none of it has to do with suspending the Constitution. Instead, it says the interpretation of the Fourth Amendment is "that only unreasonable searches are prohibited," which leads me back to my original point of stating that I don't believe suspension of any of the constitutional rights due to a pandemic has decisively (or if at all) been tested in court.
 

GoldZ

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The quote is directly from the Constitution itself: https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript, Article I, Section 9.

I skimmed your link; none of the emergency situations have to do with a pandemic. Actually, none of it has to do with suspending the Constitution. Instead, it says the interpretation of the Fourth Amendment is "that only unreasonable searches are prohibited," which leads me back to my original point of stating that I don't believe suspension of any of the constitutional rights due to a pandemic has decisively (or if at all) been tested in court.
In reference to the very recent Covid related Texas abortion rights case, this is what the Appeals Court Justice said:"Jacobson instructs that all constitutional rights may be reasonably restricted to combat a public health emergency," wrote Judge Stuart Kyle Duncan for the majority.
 

GTNavyNuke

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Looking at CDC data for total deaths.

BLUF: you can argue that COVID-19 isn't making much of a difference or you can argue that the data isn't in. I'm in the middle and was surprised that the total deaths hadn't increased more even considering the time lag. Definitely worth following though.
We're going to have to wait for more info, until then, thank you to all posting on this site as civility has returned.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-Death-Counts-for-Coronavirus-Disease-C/hc4f-j6nb

View attachment 8258

But here are the footnotes:
1. Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis, and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.
2. Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

4. Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (duh for uGag readers)

Well, I said I'd update the total deaths today. Here it is along with my estimate of projected total deaths once they are all reported.

Looks like as of the week ending 4/11, total deaths from all causes was up about 34%. I think there is still a lot more updating for week end 4/18, but we'll see.

The only problem with the data is that there is only a 6 day lapse between the data points even though I downloaded last Saturday and this Saturday. So the estimate is low. Oh well, I'll do again next Saturday.

Data from https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-Death-Counts-for-Coronavirus-Disease-C/hc4f-j6nb

upload_2020-5-2_15-13-36.png
 

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