Conference Realignment

[orientalnc]

I am going to answer a hypothetical question:
What's going to be the end game with these lawsuits?

My take:
FSU will lose the GOR argument. There is simply no room for the Noles to win. Maybe it was a bad deal, but it was the deal they wanted at the time. I think the GOR will survive.

FSU may actually get some play with the exit penalty. The penalty is not based on actual damage suffered by FSU''s withdrawal from the conference and is worded like a penalty. Courts don't like penalty clauses in contracts. And, especially if they are really large penalties that essentially erect a wall. If the Noles leave this will likely be a reduced amount.

Bottom line:
I think FSU stays in the ACC because no other conference will accept them without FSU's media rights. A possible exception: The B1G (or SEC) might invite the Noles and buy FSU's rights on an annual basis through 2036 using FSU's share of the the B1G media deal. So essentially, the Noles would be in the B1G with a similar deal as SMU has with the ACC. Of course, there would have to be some kind of negotiated exit penalty that FSU could afford. The advantage to FSU would be that after the current B1G media deal ends they might get a full share of the next one. But, I think they will stay in the conference.

 

[tmhunter52]

Lol truer words were never spoken.
I have a friend who's a retired attorney and it takes him 15 minutes to answer a simple (not legal) question. A question about anything.

That’s because the pure and simple truth is never pure and is rarely simple.

 

[WreckinGT]

No. The contract is between the ACC and ESPN. The ACC is a separate legal entity and has no obligation to the citizens of Florida.

If this is true then any public university can setup a shell company to hide whatever they want from FOIA requests.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Isn't that what @stinger78 said?

Maybe. I wasn't sure if he meant FOIA exempt or FOIA eligible information. I was clarifying.

 

[L41k18]

That’s because the pure and simple truth is never pure and is rarely simple.

But most people don't need 15 minutes to answer a question such as "are you still going to so-and-so church?" or "did you watch the game last night?" or "how old are your grandkids now?"

 

[CEB]

To be honest, I'm confused now what we're all talking about. There is a difference between the two. I'm not sure the AG has a right to the GOR, but FSU should.

Actually…. You elude to an interesting wrinkle.

FSU singed the GOR and they are a party to it. They have a copy of it. If state laws require state institutions to disclose such an agreement, then the AG could easily obtain it from FSU. HOWEVER, the ACC may not be obligated to oblige an AG from another state and some of the NDA elements could be used against the ACC (typically reciprocal)…. SO… what if the Florida AG demanding a copy from the ACC is actually a trap to see if they will produce it and violate some term of the NDA?

 

[WreckinGT]

Actually…. You elude to an interesting wrinkle.

FSU singed the GOR and they are a party to it. They have a copy of it. If state laws require state institutions to disclose such an agreement, then the AG could easily obtain it from FSU. HOWEVER, the ACC may not be obligated to oblige an AG from another state and some of the NDA elements could be used against the ACC (typically reciprocal)…. SO… what if the Florida AG demanding a copy from the ACC is actually a trap to see if they will produce it and violate some term of the NDA?
View attachment 15565

FSU's General Counsel said that they do not have a fully executed copy of the GOR in the latest BOT meeting. She said she only has what she found on the internet like everyone else. Ref (41:35):

 

[CEB]

FSU's General Counsel said that they do not have a fully executed copy of the GOR in the latest BOT meeting. She said she only has what she found on the internet like everyone else. Ref (41:35):

That’s even harder to comprehend than my conspiracy theory!

 

[Richard7125]

I am going to answer a hypothetical question:
What's going to be the end game with these lawsuits?

My take:
FSU will lose the GOR argument. There is simply no room for the Noles to win. Maybe it was a bad deal, but it was the deal they wanted at the time. I think the GOR will survive.

FSU may actually get some play with the exit penalty. The penalty is not based on actual damage suffered by FSU''s withdrawal from the conference and is worded like a penalty. Courts don't like penalty clauses in contracts. And, especially if they are really large penalties that essentially erect a wall. If the Noles leave this will likely be a reduced amount.

Bottom line:
I think FSU stays in the ACC because no other conference will accept them without FSU's media rights. A possible exception: The B1G (or SEC) might invite the Noles and buy FSU's rights on an annual basis through 2036 using FSU's share of the the B1G media deal. So essentially, the Noles would be in the B1G with a similar deal as SMU has with the ACC. Of course, there would have to be some kind of negotiated exit penalty that FSU could afford. The advantage to FSU would be that after the current B1G media deal ends they might get a full share of the next one. But, I think they will stay in the conference.

I think FSU is going to leave sometime in the next two years. FSU has made it clear they don’t want to be in the ACC and I imagine the other ACC schools are getting to the point they don’t want FSU either. The big question is how much will they have to pay. I think there will be a settlement somewhere between $300m and $500m.

 

[stinger78]

I think FSU is going to leave sometime in the next two years. FSU has made it clear they don’t want to be in the ACC and I imagine the other ACC schools are getting to the point they don’t want FSU either. The big question is how much will they have to pay. I think there will be a settlement somewhere between $300m and $500m.

The bigger question is, with as big a bunch of bush leaguers they’ve made themselves to be… who wants them?

 

[BCJacket]

I really think FSU has painted themselves into a corner. The fans/boosters/BOR had already convinced themselves being in the ACC was holding them back. Then they had an emotional overreaction to getting left out of the playoffs. (Which is a reasonable gripe.) The problem is, this lawsuit has no real legs.

The only possibly legitimate legal complaint is regarding the ACC extending ESPN's option without a vote. But if the court is going to nullify that, they're going to have to bring ESPN in as a party to the lawsuit... which is not going to benefit FSU in the big picture.

FSU is a valuable brand. They draw good TV ratings. But they're not a top top tier Texas, Alabama, tOSU brand. And their media market is not the best.

Would the SEC or B1G want FSU? All else equal, probably. But for them to get an invite the other schools have to want them. This lawsuit makes them look like a crappy 'team member' for a conference. FSU doesn't have the best academics, which the B1G Presidents care about.
The SEC schools in FL, GA, SC, Bama, don't want the recruiting. It's not a slam dunk. And what's FSU worth to the conference members? IIUC the additional payout for adding a school is ~$60 million and the school's share is ~$50 million. (FSU is going to expect a full share.) So, each school would get just ~$500k a year more and have to deal with FSU's drama... That's if Fox and ESPN even want to add FSU. Their opinion will weigh heavily on the league's vote. FSU is more valuable to ESPN in the ACC. And if they're suing ESPN, that's not going to help. Fox might want them, but how much? I think the only way they get in is agreeing to a small enough share to entice the other schools.

Which, then you have to look at what the value is to FSU. At a full share they'd get $10-20 million more per year. But at what cost? There's no way the court is going to let them out for $0. TX and OK negotiationed down by about a 1/3 to $100M to get out of the Big12 just a couple years early. Even if FSU negotiates it down to... 1/2, they're looking at $250M, a 20-30 year payback with a full share... And I don't think they can get an invite to the B1G or SEC at a full share.

But, I don't see any way they can stay in the ACC at this point. They may have had a soft 'offer' from the B1G commissioners office if they could get out of the ACC. But that still requires a vote and the mess and costs of getting out the ACC may not make that viable. IMHO, most likely they end up in a worse financial situation, in the Big12, Independent, or taking a much reduced share in the B1G or SEC. While also owing the ACC a ton of money.

 

[TechPhi97]

Yeah, the idea they would amend the agreement in secret is ludicrous. Their lawyers are even dumber than ours.

Because it’s not an enforceable amendment if both parties don’t sign!

I had a real estate investment business, and my partner and I acquired a lot that was landlocked - no access by roads. There is law concerning easements and we had a right to an easement through an adjacent commercial property. The owner of that property bought a small parcel next to ours and filed a deed saying he had transferred it to us, without us signing anything or even being aware of it.

That lot gave us access but severely restricted our potential uses. We ended up suing him and his lawyer. He had to give us the easement and pay our legal fees. The lawyer almost got disbarred.

All that to say - people do crazy stuff.

 

[yeti92]

I really think FSU has painted themselves into a corner. The fans/boosters/BOR had already convinced themselves being in the ACC was holding them back. Then they had an emotional overreaction to getting left out of the playoffs. (Which is a reasonable gripe.) The problem is, this lawsuit has no real legs.

The only possibly legitimate legal complaint is regarding the ACC extending ESPN's option without a vote. But if the court is going to nullify that, they're going to have to bring ESPN in as a party to the lawsuit... which is not going to benefit FSU in the big picture.

FSU is a valuable brand. They draw good TV ratings. But they're not a top top tier Texas, Alabama, tOSU brand. And their media market is not the best.

Would the SEC or B1G want FSU? All else equal, probably. But for them to get an invite the other schools have to want them. This lawsuit makes them look like a crappy 'team member' for a conference. FSU doesn't have the best academics, which the B1G Presidents care about.
The SEC schools in FL, GA, SC, Bama, don't want the recruiting. It's not a slam dunk. And what's FSU worth to the conference members? IIUC the additional payout for adding a school is ~$60 million and the school's share is ~$50 million. (FSU is going to expect a full share.) So, each school would get just ~$500k a year more and have to deal with FSU's drama... That's if Fox and ESPN even want to add FSU. Their opinion will weigh heavily on the league's vote. FSU is more valuable to ESPN in the ACC. And if they're suing ESPN, that's not going to help. Fox might want them, but how much? I think the only way they get in is agreeing to a small enough share to entice the other schools.

Which, then you have to look at what the value is to FSU. At a full share they'd get $10-20 million more per year. But at what cost? There's no way the court is going to let them out for $0. TX and OK negotiationed down by about a 1/3 to $100M to get out of the Big12 just a couple years early. Even if FSU negotiates it down to... 1/2, they're looking at $250M, a 20-30 year payback with a full share... And I don't think they can get an invite to the B1G or SEC at a full share.

But, I don't see any way they can stay in the ACC at this point. They may have had a soft 'offer' from the B1G commissioners office if they could get out of the ACC. But that still requires a vote and the mess and costs of getting out the ACC may not make that viable. IMHO, most likely they end up in a worse financial situation, in the Big12, Independent, or taking a much reduced share in the B1G or SEC. While also owing the ACC a ton of money.

Agreed, I think there is a solid chance FSU is nuking their own future. They are backing themselves onto a ledge and will have no room to negotiate or have leverage, and will have shown themselves to be a bad partner only interested in their own success. They look like the girl you thought was kinda cute, until you found out she's 110% crazy and murdered the last guy she dated because he didn't buy her something.

 

[bobongo]

Because it’s not an enforceable amendment if both parties don’t sign!

It isn't anything if both parties don't sign. My point was that the idea of the ACC making an unsigned amendment in secret and hiding it away is preposterous.

 

[WreckinGT]

Agreed, I think there is a solid chance FSU is nuking their own future. They are backing themselves onto a ledge and will have no room to negotiate or have leverage, and will have shown themselves to be a bad partner only interested in their own success. They look like the girl you thought was kinda cute, until you found out she's 110% crazy and murdered the last guy she dated because he didn't buy her something.

I still find it very hard to believe that FSU is going to this extreme without a pretty clear picture of where they are going to end up afterwords. People seem to be convinced that the FSU AD, their president, their legal team, and their legal partners are all incompetent toddlers that have no idea what they are doing and are almost certainly just destroying the program. That seems a bit far fetched to me.

 

[billga99]

FSU must feel they can threaten the ACC enough to negotiate a settlement. Time will tell if that is true. I don't think the ACC would ever negotiate a lower settlement which would open the floodgates for others unless they have no options.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

It isn't anything if both parties don't sign. My point was that the idea of the ACC making an unsigned amendment in secret and hiding it away is preposterous.

Lets take this absurdity to the next logical step. IF they never signed it then why are they trying to sue the ACC. The ACC has nothing on them and they could have left at anytime if they never signed

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I still find it very hard to believe that FSU is going to this extreme without a pretty clear picture of where they are going to end up afterwords. People seem to be convinced that the FSU AD, their president, their legal team, and their legal partners are all incompetent toddlers that have no idea what they are doing and are almost certainly just destroying the program. That seems a bit far fetched to me.

Agree. Unless they have an open invitation, they’re crazy.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Even if you look at this where FSU is trying to be smart and executing a Game Theory plan. They are doing such a poor job that they have already been gamed!

There is no angle here that helps them. Other than "If I yell and scream enough like a spoiled brat maybe mommy ACC will let me have what I want".

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Man, y’all have some serious emotional issues regarding FSU. You guys are crying way harder than FSU is. All FSU is doing is trying to leave a conference that is in a prolonged death spiral. All this stuff like ”they are painting themselves into a corner” or “they will have no home” is just hilarious. If worthless programs like Nebraska, Rutgers, South Carolina, Missouri have homes you don’t think FSU will have one? Come on now. And sure, they may not be able to get out of this garbage conference, but I doubt there is a clause in the GOR that says they have to lick Phillips boots every Saturday like everyone else does. FSU can at least look themselves in the mirror knowing they are trying to make their future better. GT and everyone else is just sitting there dooming their future teams knowing all these school Presidents, AD’s, and coaches will be gone or working on their next career move to the SEC or BIG. All you guys laughing at FSU won’t be laughing when we are in the Sunbelt after the GOR and ACC ends while FSU and others end up in a real conference.