Conference Realignment

[Techster]

...or end up out of the P-5 altogether. Be careful what you wish for. Tech may not be yet ready for a breakup of the ACC.

GT will not be left out of the highest level. Atlanta is too valuable of a media market and recruiting territory, and GT is a top 25-40 athletic program historically. There's a reason we were invited to the B1G, and the Big 12 would bend over backwards to have GT join them if the ACC fell apart.

 

[Papa Foxtrot]

the Big 12 would bend over backwards to have GT join them if the ACC fell apart.

IMO, IF(big if) F$U succeeds and two or three schools leave the ACC, I would not be surprised to see the ACC and Big 12 merge.

 

[Randy Carson]

I realize that there is a lot of animosity toward FSU on this board. Not sure why...my only memory of FSU is beating them on a block-six field goal.

That said, I think we should just let them go and be done with it. They don't want to be in the ACC; why should the ACC members want a disgruntled partner?

For that matter, if the ACC dissolved today, which schools would NOT have a new home tomorrow? The P3 would gobble up most if not all of the ACC teams (and some of them might have more than one offer giving them negotiating leverage for best offers). It wouldn't surprise me if a majority votes to break up the band before the GOR deadline.

When the music stops (this round), we just need to make sure Tech has a seat.

 

[bobongo]

GT will not be left out of the highest level. Atlanta is too valuable of a media market and recruiting territory, and GT is a top 25-40 athletic program historically. There's a reason we were invited to the B1G, and the Big 12 would bend over backwards to have GT join them if the ACC fell apart.

I hope. But I'd rather find out later than sooner, when down the road we're a bit stronger back on our feet.
No one seems to care much for history anymore. The immediate prospect of money seems to be the prevailing lure.

 

[brian22]

I realize that there is a lot of animosity toward FSU on this board. Not sure why...my only memory of FSU is beating them on a block-six field goal.

That said, I think we should just let them go and be done with it. They don't want to be in the ACC; why should the ACC members want a disgruntled partner?

For that matter, if the ACC dissolved today, which schools would NOT have a new home tomorrow? The P3 would gobble up most if not all of the ACC teams (and some of them might have more than one offer giving them negotiating leverage for best offers). It wouldn't surprise me if a majority votes to break up the band before the GOR deadline.

When the music stops (this round), we just need to make sure Tech has a seat.

F$U and Tech have a history going back to at least the 90s. Look it up. Those are some of my favorite games.

I’ll take a disgruntled member over opening up Pandora’s box and the ACC disappearing.

 

[khickman6]

I realize that there is a lot of animosity toward FSU on this board. Not sure why...my only memory of FSU is beating them on a block-six field goal.

That said, I think we should just let them go and be done with it. They don't want to be in the ACC; why should the ACC members want a disgruntled partner?

For that matter, if the ACC dissolved today, which schools would NOT have a new home tomorrow? The P3 would gobble up most if not all of the ACC teams (and some of them might have more than one offer giving them negotiating leverage for best offers). It wouldn't surprise me if a majority votes to break up the band before the GOR deadline.

When the music stops (this round), we just need to make sure Tech has a seat.

I would prefer an ACC and Big 12 merger vs Tech joining the SEC or Big Ten. You don't want to take a check and then only be able to win 5-6 games a year in your best seasons. It will be interesting to see how Oklahoma and Texas fans react to going 8-4 or 7-5 in the SEC on a regular basis. The SEC teams like Miss State, Arkansas, or Kentucky will now max out of 5-6 wins.

I would rather win 8-10 games a year in a "lower-level" conference than go 5-7 for the rest of eternity. Take the check. Take the loses.

 

[Thwg777]

...or end up out of the P-5 altogether. Be careful what you wish for. Tech may not be yet ready for a breakup of the ACC.

Burn it all down and leave the remaining All Carolina Clowns to fight it out in mayonnaise over their bowl bid.

 

[g0lftime]

Keep in mind that is was reported during the expansion talks earlier this year that part of the reason that the ACC expanded was to keep it in a place that even if some schools left that it would keep them above the limit where ESPN could renegotiate the contract downward. FWIW, supposedly that number was dropping below 14 (including ND).

If FSU leaves, unless they can come to an agreement with the ACC over the GOR they will not have the legal right to broadcast their games - nor will any conference they join. All that money would go to the ACC through 2036.

They could announce now that the wanted to leave and pay the exit fee - approx $120M, but ACC would still own their broadcast rights.
No conference would touch them unless they can get their broadcast rights back and even then, whether they could get a full share from the B1G or SEC is not a given. Washington and Oregon only got $30M from the B1G. Good chance that is about what FSU would get on the open market.

The GoR does not have any provisions which allow a school to leave and get their broadcast rights back. FSU would have to sue and take their chances where the ACC likely holds almost all the cards. FSU has signed the GoR multiple times (negating any defense of being 'forced' to sign) and is unlikely to win in court. Their only real option would be to sue and then hope they could negotiate a deal before it went to trial (which could take years).

The beauty of the GoR is its simplicity. The whole document is only 3 pages. It basically says the signees have agreed to give their broadcast rights to the ACC through the end of the media contract. There is no provision in the legal document for getting those rights back. Once you signed it, you have agreed to give up your media rights with no rights to get them back until 2036. It is reportedly the same basic GoR that both the B12 and PAC had/have and shows you why no school yet has tried to challenge one. I guarantee at least 30 schools have had lawyers look at those documents and no one has found a 'loophole' yet.

I would also suspect that the ACC would vote to withhold any future payments to FSU as soon as they made an announcement of departure.

Texas and OK ultimately negotiated with the B12 to pay $50M each to be able to leave 1 year early. If FSU did something similar they would be looking at paying the ACC $650M.

They are also getting angry over a system that no longer exists. If the same situation came to pass next year they would be in the CFP win or lose the ACC CG. They seem so blinded by anger and entitlement that they are missing the bigger picture.

If they leave I only see the SEC as where they could go. The B1G looks down on them academically and they just aren't a cultural fit in that league. It does open up Florida for the Michigan/Harbaugh cheaters for recruiting.
I will not be sorry to see them leave the conference but they must pay the price to leave. Not sure the SEC wants them at this point in time either.

 

[jgtengineer]

I would prefer an ACC and Big 12 merger vs Tech joining the SEC or Big Ten. You don't want to take a check and then only be able to win 5-6 games a year in your best seasons. It will be interesting to see how Oklahoma and Texas fans react to going 8-4 or 7-5 in the SEC on a regular basis. The SEC teams like Miss State, Arkansas, or Kentucky will now max out of 5-6 wins.

I would rather win 8-10 games a year in a "lower-level" conference than go 5-7 for the rest of eternity. Take the check. Take the loses.

Prior to NIL you would be right.

IF GT is in the big 10 the amount of money flowign in will allow for more investment in our revenue sports. More investment in teh product form athletics makes it a better attractor to corporates NIL.

GT in the Big 10 playing michigan, ohio state, etc also is huge for home attendance as there are a ton of transplants down here that will honestly go to GT games to watch them play the teams their main team does and they can't go to (there are a lot of "georgia" sports fans that when given the choice between uga and tech will go to the uga event, this would not be the case with transplant fans in the big 10. )

 

[orientalnc]

If they leave I only see the SEC as where they could go. The B1G looks down on them academically and they just aren't a cultural fit in that league. It does open up Florida for the Michigan/Harbaugh cheaters for recruiting.
I will not be sorry to see them leave the conference but they must pay the price to leave. Not sure the SEC wants them at this point in time either.

I disagree with the position that the SEC and B1G are not interested in FSU. I agree with @RamblinRed that neither conferences is likely to offer a full media share until the next contract cycle. FSU is a good football program and games with the elite teams in either conference would be premium events.

 

[travgt01]

IMO, IF(big if) F$U succeeds and two or three schools leave the ACC, I would not be surprised to see the ACC and Big 12 merge.

That’s already being discussed via private equity and/or TKO (wwe/ufc). With or without fsu/clem.

 

[slugboy]

I disagree with the position that the SEC and B1G are not interested in FSU. I agree with @RamblinRed that neither conferences is likely to offer a full media share until the next contract cycle. FSU is a good football program and games with the elite teams in either conference would be premium events.

When TX and OK left the B12, other teams couldn’t stand them, and B12 teams hadn’t liked TX for years. But, when TX and OK left, they were clearly executing the last move of a multi year chess strategy.
I don’t know what game FSU is playing, but I don’t see the strategic insight.
Whatever conference takes them is going to get a high-maintenance member.

Also, if they succeed in convincing the courts that they don’t have the rights to pool their media rights and other rights with other teams, what kind of contract are they going to sign with either the B1G or SEC?

I’m not saying that the SEC wouldn’t take them, but FSU doesn’t seem to plan more than a move ahead.

 

[stinger78]

I realize that there is a lot of animosity toward FSU on this board. Not sure why...my only memory of FSU is beating them on a block-six field goal.

That said, I think we should just let them go and be done with it. They don't want to be in the ACC; why should the ACC members want a disgruntled partner?

For that matter, if the ACC dissolved today, which schools would NOT have a new home tomorrow? The P3 would gobble up most if not all of the ACC teams (and some of them might have more than one offer giving them negotiating leverage for best offers). It wouldn't surprise me if a majority votes to break up the band before the GOR deadline.

When the music stops (this round), we just need to make sure Tech has a seat.

Money.

 

[bobongo]

When TX and OK left the B12, other teams couldn’t stand them, and B12 teams hadn’t liked TX for years. But, when TX and OK left, they were clearly executing the last move of a multi year chess strategy.
I don’t know what game FSU is playing, but I don’t see the strategic insight.
Whatever conference takes them is going to get a high-maintenance member.

Also, if they succeed in convincing the courts that they don’t have the rights to pool their media rights and other rights with other teams, what kind of contract are they going to sign with either the B1G or SEC?

I’m not saying that the SEC wouldn’t take them, but FSU doesn’t seem to plan more than a move ahead.

FSU isn't going anywhere. They signed the agreement to pool their media rights with other teams, and they'll be held to it.

 

[stinger78]

When TX and OK left the B12, other teams couldn’t stand them, and B12 teams hadn’t liked TX for years. But, when TX and OK left, they were clearly executing the last move of a multi year chess strategy.
I don’t know what game FSU is playing, but I don’t see the strategic insight.
Whatever conference takes them is going to get a high-maintenance member.

Also, if they succeed in convincing the courts that they don’t have the rights to pool their media rights and other rights with other teams, what kind of contract are they going to sign with either the B1G or SEC?

I’m not saying that the SEC wouldn’t take them, but FSU doesn’t seem to plan more than a move ahead.

It's clear that the SECheat doesn't think they are worth a crap. I think the B12 would take them, but their TV deal is not sufficiently better than the ACC. Not sure about the B1G.

 

[RamblinRed]

Florida State sues ACC over grant of rights, withdrawal fees, marking first step towards attempted departure

Leaving the ACC unchallenged will force Florida State to pony up $572 million in exit fees

www.cbssports.com

"industry experts told CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd in May that it's unlikely that any ACC schools would be able to join one of the two big conferences without taking a partial share, making for a shaky benefit."

"The ideal landing spot would be the SEC. The league has established itself as the top dog in college football and the Seminoles fit neatly into the league footprint. However, there's plenty working against them. In-state rival Florida would almost certainly do anything in its power to block FSU from entering the league. For many SEC members, adding Florida State would be more of a threat than a benefit both in recruiting and on the field. "

"That leaves the Big Ten as a potential Hail Mary destination."

"If the Big Ten is not interested, however, Florida State could find itself in a brutal position. Florida State athletic director Michael Alford told The Athletic in November that independence was "not a true option" because of the complications of media contracts and scheduling. The Big 12's media deal is comparable to the ACC's, making it an unlikely destination. "

"Landing in the power conferences is only getting more difficult. Oregon and Washington took approximately 50% shares to leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten through the end of the media rights deal."
"Florida State might have to take a similar short term haircut to make its case to another league. "


My thoughts.
Sounds like they are ready to challenge the GoR - good luck with that. I assume they will try to file in FL state court, but since the ACC is not based there and has many schools outside of it, it would likely be immediately moved to a Federal Court. B12 had set up their legal entities such that any legal action would be adjudicated in Federal Court in Delaware - don't know if ACC did similar, but regardless - FSU won't be in a favorable legal environment.

Also, if they decide to sue without actually leaving the conference (hoping to get their media rights back before trying to join a new conference) - a judge could potentially dismiss the case saying they have no standing to sue, since they haven't actually tried to leave the conference.

ESPN and Fox would both be against the GoR's being found not to be legally valid as both rely on conferences to provide content. If the GoR's are found not legal then there is no stopping any school from trying to leave one conference for another without consequence and both of them could end up losing inventory.

At the end it feels like they just are hoping the ACC will let them go at some discount rate. I doubt the ACC would do that. Would be bad for the ACC and would be bad for other conferences.

If they want to leave and are willing to do a deal similar to TX And OK - $50M per year for each year remaining in the GoR - that would be $650M and i'd say great- pay us the money and don't let the door hit you on the way out.

 

[JDjacket]

Its BR, so who knows on its accuracy but...

Report: SEC Has 'More Opposition Than Interest' in Adding FSU, Miami, Clemson​

If that is accurate, then that would leave FSU with big 10 or bust

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

FSU isn't even looking at the SEC. It's all Fox and the B1G.

The SEC isn't taking any ACC teams until ESPN demands they do as part of dissolving the rest of the ACC.

 

[orientalnc]

Florida State sues ACC over grant of rights, withdrawal fees, marking first step towards attempted departure

Leaving the ACC unchallenged will force Florida State to pony up $572 million in exit fees

www.cbssports.com

"industry experts told CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd in May that it's unlikely that any ACC schools would be able to join one of the two big conferences without taking a partial share, making for a shaky benefit."

"The ideal landing spot would be the SEC. The league has established itself as the top dog in college football and the Seminoles fit neatly into the league footprint. However, there's plenty working against them. In-state rival Florida would almost certainly do anything in its power to block FSU from entering the league. For many SEC members, adding Florida State would be more of a threat than a benefit both in recruiting and on the field. "

"That leaves the Big Ten as a potential Hail Mary destination."

"If the Big Ten is not interested, however, Florida State could find itself in a brutal position. Florida State athletic director Michael Alford told The Athletic in November that independence was "not a true option" because of the complications of media contracts and scheduling. The Big 12's media deal is comparable to the ACC's, making it an unlikely destination. "

"Landing in the power conferences is only getting more difficult. Oregon and Washington took approximately 50% shares to leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten through the end of the media rights deal."
"Florida State might have to take a similar short term haircut to make its case to another league. "


My thoughts.
Sounds like they are ready to challenge the GoR - good luck with that. I assume they will try to file in FL state court, but since the ACC is not based there and has many schools outside of it, it would likely be immediately moved to a Federal Court. B12 had set up their legal entities such that any legal action would be adjudicated in Federal Court in Delaware - don't know if ACC did similar, but regardless - FSU won't be in a favorable legal environment.

Also, if they decide to sue without actually leaving the conference (hoping to get their media rights back before trying to join a new conference) - a judge could potentially dismiss the case saying they have no standing to sue, since they haven't actually tried to leave the conference.

ESPN and Fox would both be against the GoR's being found not to be legally valid as both rely on conferences to provide content. If the GoR's are found not legal then there is no stopping any school from trying to leave one conference for another without consequence and both of them could end up losing inventory.

At the end it feels like they just are hoping the ACC will let them go at some discount rate. I doubt the ACC would do that. Would be bad for the ACC and would be bad for other conferences.

If they want to leave and are willing to do a deal similar to TX And OK - $50M per year for each year remaining in the GoR - that would be $650M and i'd say great- pay us the money and don't let the door hit you on the way out.

The article is well written, but I take exception to a few of his points. The SEC schools are already competing for recruits with FSU and the Noles are winning a bunch of those battles. But I cannot believe the SEC, or any of its elite teams, fear FSU being a member. Florida might not like giving up its "superior" conference status, but they are not afraid of FSU.

Your comment, "At the end it feels like they just are hoping the ACC will let them go at some discount rate. ..." is exactly what my sister-in-law claims they are hoping for. A negotiated settlement that let's them leave for an amount they can affordably amortotize over some number of years. I also agree with you that the ACC is unlikely to settle. They have all the leverage.

Another point my UNC neighbor shared with me when this came up a while back. The ACC bylaws say all legal claims by member schools against the ACC must be according to NC law and settled in NC courts. That makes sense. Otherwise the ACC would be bound a bunch of varying legal requirements.

 

[ThatGuy]

Any lawyers here wish to opine on the strategy of "declaratory judgement action" in this case? I'm not a lawyer, but a cursory web search leads me to believe that it doesn't do what the "legal experts" imply. I'm beginning to think that the real strategy is to wear down the ACC until it will give them what they want....

I mean, it worked for them before, when all the other schools rolled over and gave them unequal revenue sharing for bitching, moaning and complaining so loudly. So we're partially to blame for continuing to enable the toddler behavior.

But yeah, I think that's exactly what they're going to try to do. If the ACC thinks its contract is legally sound, but see that FSU might be able to make a compelling case against it, they may settle to take guaranteed money rather than rolling the dice on getting nothing (and losing the GOR which holds the other programs in).

Of course, if they did that, that would just open the door for other programs to do the same thing.

Personally, I hope FSU either announces their intentions to leave and then can't afford the GOR buyout and the exit fee, OR they find a loophole to only pay something like $400MM to cover their exit...and then the SEC and B1G both decide to pass due to their antics, so they end up in the Big 12 or the PAC (or trying to go it alone, only to realize their "brand" isn't nearly as valuable as Notre Dame's).

Again, not likely, but a guy can dream.