Conference Realignment

[Vespidae]

I'm with others that now would be a good time to push ND for concessions. I'd ask if ACC adds Cal and Stanford that they be willing to play 6 games against ACC teams each year and ACC will guarantee one will be against Cal or Stanford. Knowing that they will play Stanford every year that means some years they will play 7 games against ACC teams (When they play both Cal and Stanford) and other years will play 6. (My assumption is any year Stanford is an ACC scheduled game they will schedule them as a 'non-conference' game). Every additional game ACC plays against ND brings in more value for ESPN.

Also, many are underestimating the value of the ACC. ACC is a clear #3 behind the Big 2 and will remain that way for some time. B12 has no schools that are appealing to SEC or B1G and in less populated areas. As long as ND has a deal with ACC it will always remain #3. If ACC adds Stanford and Cal then imo even if a handful of teams were to eventually leave ACC would still remain in a stronger position than the B12. I don't see a scenario where the B12 gobbles up the ACC.

I don't see a way for the ACC to close the gap with the Big 2 - there are things it can do where it would be easily the #3.

The fact is there are multiple tiers in CFB and ACC (along with B12) are in Tier 2 with SEC and B1G in Tier 1 and the G5 conferences basically being Tier 3. The only question is whether the Big 2 will try to make those tiers official or keep it like it is now.

There was an article yesterday that the B1G could simply refuse to schedule ND and force them to join or face oblivion in the ACC. Others covet ND as well.

 

[LT 1967]

One other factor the ACC members will need to consider concerning expansion is scheduling. If the ACC goes to 16 teams, do they go to 9 conference games?

There are basically two choices with 16 teams (Assuming we want to continue playing all teams home and away every 4 years}.

If we go to 9 conference games, we keep 3 permanent opponents and rotate 6 (5 currently). In order to stay at 8 conference games each team would have only one permanent rival
and rotate 7.

I suppose they have a year to settle this, but it may be best to decide now due to conference instability. Also, this will be important to the four schools with in-state rivals like Tech.
Going to 9 ACC games will obviously limit GT's OOC scheduling. We would have 9 ACC games plus PUPS. The other two would likely be G5 teams every year.

As we know from Greg Sankey's comments the OOC in-state rivals was a factor in the SEC schedules with 16 teams.

 

[RamblinRed]

There was an article yesterday that the B1G could simply refuse to schedule ND and force them to join or face oblivion in the ACC. Others covet ND as well.

I don't think that would have much effect on ND. As long as they have a path to the playoffs they will not join a conference.
If they want to join a conference before 2036 it has to be the ACC.

Since ND doesn't play any FCS teams as long as they can find enough FBS teams to play, and I doubt that will ever be an issue, then they are fine.
The big issue for ND in terms of the B1G has always been a fear that if they joined it they would be seen less as the 'National Catholic' University and more of a 'Regional Private' University.
They have consistently been willing to take less TV money as long as they get a wider distribution (ie. their deal with NBC for national broadcast).

 

[RamblinRed]

Price of college football realignment: Losing seasons, stiffer competition

The grass and cash may look greener elsewhere, but tradeoff for college realignment is often more losing. Few teams sustained success in new leagues.

www.usatoday.com

College football is a money game, but it is a money game that may also have a cost.

 

[SimpleGT]

It will be interesting to follow ESPN’s evolution and cost cutting. IMHO there are at least three factors contributing. The first is economic, ESPN has overpaid for personalities and most viewers want the sports not opinionated oafs. The second is related - too many networks dilutes actual content and forces commentary not sports. And lastly, I think the player movement from team to team has reduced fan engagement, similar to the NFL. Can’t follow your favorite players.

No solutions, just some random thoughts.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I don't think that would have much effect on ND. As long as they have a path to the playoffs they will not join a conference.
If they want to join a conference before 2036 it has to be the ACC.

Since ND doesn't play any FCS teams as long as they can find enough FBS teams to play, and I doubt that will ever be an issue, then they are fine.
The big issue for ND in terms of the B1G has always been a fear that if they joined it they would be seen less as the 'National Catholic' University and more of a 'Regional Private' University.
They have consistently been willing to take less TV money as long as they get a wider distribution (ie. their deal with NBC for national broadcast).

The B1G shutting them off would hurt for a couple of reasons:

1. They would have to work harder to find top tier matchups to keep them in the playoff hunt. (They're playing an FCS team this year that's gonna hurt their SoS)
2. NBC is not going to want to pay for FCS and G5 teams to make up a majority of their TV inventory.

In the end, though, the best solution short term is probably to add Cal and Stanford and convince ND to add another guaranteed game against the ACC. Even if it doesn't tip the TV money dramatically in our favor, it keeps ND closer to the ACC than the B1G or the SEC.

 

[Techster]

One other factor the ACC members will need to consider concerning expansion is scheduling. If the ACC goes to 16 teams, do they go to 9 conference games?

There are basically two choices with 16 teams (Assuming we want to continue playing all teams home and away every 4 years}.

If we go to 9 conference games, we keep 3 permanent opponents and rotate 6 (5 currently). In order to stay at 8 conference games each team would have only one permanent rival
and rotate 7.

I suppose they have a year to settle this, but it may be best to decide now due to conference instability. Also, this will be important to the four schools with in-state rivals like Tech.
Going to 9 ACC games will obviously limit GT's OOC scheduling. We would have 9 ACC games plus PUPS. The other two would likely be G5 teams every year.

As we know from Greg Sankey's comments the OOC in-state rivals was a factor in the SEC schedules with 16 teams.

I think eventually conferences will go to 9-12 conference games. Doesn't make sense for a league of 16-20+ teams (which is where conferences like the B1G, SEC, Big 12 are going), and networks paying the amount of money they do, to only have 8-9 game conference schedule. At some point, the networks will dictate that if you want the amount of money we're paying, we want compelling inventory. B1G is already discussing 10 game conference schedules in the future.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Price of college football realignment: Losing seasons, stiffer competition

The grass and cash may look greener elsewhere, but tradeoff for college realignment is often more losing. Few teams sustained success in new leagues.

www.usatoday.com

College football is a money game, but it is a money game that may also have a cost.

Same here.

 

[stech81]

I keep telling you the ACC will not do anything till it's too late.

 

[ThatGuy]

I'm with others that now would be a good time to push ND for concessions. I'd ask if ACC adds Cal and Stanford that they be willing to play 6 games against ACC teams each year and ACC will guarantee one will be against Cal or Stanford. Knowing that they will play Stanford every year that means some years they will play 7 games against ACC teams (When they play both Cal and Stanford) and other years will play 6. (My assumption is any year Stanford is an ACC scheduled game they will schedule them as a 'non-conference' game). Every additional game ACC plays against ND brings in more value for ESPN.

Also, many are underestimating the value of the ACC. ACC is a clear #3 behind the Big 2 and will remain that way for some time. B12 has no schools that are appealing to SEC or B1G and in less populated areas. As long as ND has a deal with ACC it will always remain #3. If ACC adds Stanford and Cal then imo even if a handful of teams were to eventually leave ACC would still remain in a stronger position than the B12. I don't see a scenario where the B12 gobbles up the ACC.

I don't see a way for the ACC to close the gap with the Big 2 - there are things it can do where it would be easily the #3.

The fact is there are multiple tiers in CFB and ACC (along with B12) are in Tier 2 with SEC and B1G in Tier 1 and the G5 conferences basically being Tier 3. The only question is whether the Big 2 will try to make those tiers official or keep it like it is now.

Agreed on it being the best time to push ND for concessions.

The fly in the ointment is that Clemson and Free Shoes U are also trying to push the rest of the league for concessions as well. Effectively they're saying, "We're leaving whenever we can, and we'll torpedo the MF for you unless you agree to give us more money in the meantime - or let us out of the GoR early."

Holding the entire conference hostage in order to extort them is an all-around ****ty thing to do, but such is the political nature of this game we're playing...and such is the character of FSU (and by association, Clemson, UNC, and NC State).

Supposedly today's meeting has been canceled - which suggests the whole thing is dead in the water. From one source:



Given all the muck of conflicting demands, I doubt we make anything happen. Which sucks for Stanford, Cal, and college football as a whole.

 

[LT 1967]

I keep telling you the ACC will not do anything till it's too late.

Your likely correct. I just noticed a west coast reporter on the Jim Rome show saying that Cal and Stanford would likely land in the B1G based on their Academic Standing.

That's obviously just one guy's opinion. But, when the B1G realizes the ACC might actually act, they will likely swoop in and take them.

 

[yeti92]

The B1G shutting them off would hurt for a couple of reasons:

1. They would have to work harder to find top tier matchups to keep them in the playoff hunt. (They're playing an FCS team this year that's gonna hurt their SoS)
2. NBC is not going to want to pay for FCS and G5 teams to make up a majority of their TV inventory.

In the end, though, the best solution short term is probably to add Cal and Stanford and convince ND to add another guaranteed game against the ACC. Even if it doesn't tip the TV money dramatically in our favor, it keeps ND closer to the ACC than the B1G or the SEC.

How many of the recent natty contenders are not playing an FCS team? Bama has UT-Chattanooga, UGA has UT-Martin, OSU has Youngstown State, Clemson plays Charleston Southern, LSU plays Grambling St, etc.

Oklahoma doesn't but they do play Tulsa and Arkansas State. Michigan doesn't but they play 3 G5s.

I say all that to say, I don't think playing one FCS team is going to hurt them when its not hurting any of these other teams.

 

[Root4GT]

The B1G shutting them off would hurt for a couple of reasons:

1. They would have to work harder to find top tier matchups to keep them in the playoff hunt. (They're playing an FCS team this year that's gonna hurt their SoS)
2. NBC is not going to want to pay for FCS and G5 teams to make up a majority of their TV inventory.

In the end, though, the best solution short term is probably to add Cal and Stanford and convince ND to add another guaranteed game against the ACC. Even if it doesn't tip the TV money dramatically in our favor, it keeps ND closer to the ACC than the B1G or the SEC.

ND generally only plays one B1G team a year. USC being in the B1G may impact that but I suspect USC likes the attention it gets from playing ND annually. I don't see any benefit for the B1G not scheduling ND. The B1G does not play FCS teams so they need OOC opponents and ND is a very good OOC opponent to schedule.

 

[Techster]

I keep telling you the ACC will not do anything till it's too late.

It's already too late. ACC is picking up schools (SMU, Stanford, Cal) other conferences are treating as extraneous (at least for now...I do believe Stanford ends up in the B1G eventually, and that's their preferred destination...ACC is temporary for them). Once the GOR is expired, the ACC is going to look completely different than it is today.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

How many of the recent natty contenders are not playing an FCS team? Bama has UT-Chattanooga, UGA has UT-Martin, OSU has Youngstown State, Clemson plays Charleston Southern, LSU plays Grambling St, etc.

Oklahoma doesn't but they do play Tulsa and Arkansas State. Michigan doesn't but they play 3 G5s.

I say all that to say, I don't think playing one FCS team is going to hurt them when its not hurting any of these other teams.

In the current playoff scenario, ND not being able to play in a CCG and having an FCS team on the schedule means that a team like Bama who ends the season with an identical record has an extra game to push itself ahead of ND. This can potentially hurt ND where as teams in a conference can absorb it a bit better. This is why ND tries it's level best not to play FCS teams.

Playing an FCS team also potentially hurts ND financially because they only have 6 -7 home games a year to sell to NBC vs the 80-100 games a year that a league like the SEC has to sell. CBS/ESPN/etc., can siphon off an FCS opponent game to regional television for the big conferences but NBC gets stuck with a crappy matchup on primetime TV.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

ND generally only plays one B1G team a year. USC being in the B1G may impact that but I suspect USC likes the attention it gets from playing ND annually. I don't see any benefit for the B1G not scheduling ND. The B1G does not play FCS teams so they need OOC opponents and ND is a very good OOC opponent to schedule.

My reply wasn't directed to the likelihood (tiny) of the B1G shutting off ND, but rather to the assertion that the B1G shutting off ND wouldn't impact them.

 

[Root4GT]

My reply wasn't directed to the likelihood (tiny) of the B1G shutting off ND, but rather to the assertion that the B1G shutting off ND wouldn't impact them.

Agree it would not have a much of an impact except the every other year trip USC. Agree it is not likely the B1G would do that as there is no value for them doing so.

 

[stinger 1957]

I keep seeing people referring to 2 team conferences, hard for me to see it easy to be otherwise. Everybody can't win 11-12 games each in the same conference. Maybe I'm missing something.

 

[RonJohn]

As we know from Greg Sankey's comments the OOC in-state rivals was a factor in the SEC schedules with 16 teams.

The rumor I have heard most is that ESPN refused to pay any extra for a 9th conference game. I would be willing to bet that had much more of an impact than in-state rivals of 4 of the SEC teams.

 

[yeti92]

In the current playoff scenario, ND not being able to play in a CCG and having an FCS team on the schedule means that a team like Bama who ends the season with an identical record has an extra game to push itself ahead of ND. This can potentially hurt ND where as teams in a conference can absorb it a bit better. This is why ND tries it's level best not to play FCS teams.

Playing an FCS team also potentially hurts ND financially because they only have 6 -7 home games a year to sell to NBC vs the 80-100 games a year that a league like the SEC has to sell. CBS/ESPN/etc., can siphon off an FCS opponent game to regional television for the big conferences but NBC gets stuck with a crappy matchup on primetime TV.

2017 Alabama played Mercer and didn't play in a conference championship game. 2021 UGA played Charleston Southern and lost their conference championship game. Is a lost conference championship better than not playing in one? 2022 TCU also lost their conference championship and played Tarleton State.

Fair enough on getting money from NBC, but I'll stick by my opinion that playing a single FCS team isn't going to hurt them.