I think what lends merit to your tea leaf prognostication is the fact that nobody on this site has any confidence at all that the leadership of the ACC will act proactively to strengthen the conference. The stand pat and do nothing approach insures that, in light of the magnificent 7 bellyaching, the conference will lose prestige, support and money. The hemorrhaging of good will between conference members should be stopped asap by showing that the leadership has a plan. But, to repeat, nobody on this thread or this site has any confidence that things are going to get better.
The sad thing is that it doesn’t have to be this way. It doesn’t have to turn out this way. But this slow motion car crash continues.
If you look at the viewership chart, the top 4 ACC teams are (in order of most average viewers):
1. FSU
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. Louisville
Let's look at the pattern of what's happened to this point that's changed the landscape.
1. Texas and OU going to the SEC
2. USC and UCLA going to the B1G
It's well known that the B1G covets FSU and/or Miami for the exploding Florida market. Clemson is also an expansion target. Anyone here have any faith that the ACC will keep the top 3 members of the ACC in terms of viewership? What happened when the PAC12 and BIG12 lost their respective "biggest brands"? The PAC12 is all but dead with all 4 members remaining, and two are openly talking to other conferences. The Big12 had to take a reduced media payout, but they were smart enough to add some nice pieces in terms of markets and programs with upside. Their bigger paydays will come on the next contract.
So what happens to the ACC when (there's no "ifs" here) FSU, Clemson, and Miami all bolt? There are ZERO programs left on the national landscape that can back fill the viewership that the ACC will lose when those programs bolt. If anyone doesn't think they'll bolt when the Death Star B1G or SEC comes knocking with their $100 million+ annual payout, well those programs are much smarter than GT leadership back in 2012/2013. It's likely UNC is gone as well as they've been holding off the B1G and SEC for decades...but when the media distribution shrinks in 2036 because our most watched members will want to join the club of the "haves", UNC won't be able to hold out any longer if they want to sustain their "blueblood" status. ACC won't be able to command the dollars that the Big12/SEC/B1G command, and the ACC most likely loses Louisville/VT/NC State/Syracuse/possibly GT to the Big12 because the ACC media value will crater without the "brand" ACC programs.
IMO, the ACC's last chance at viability would have been working something out with the remaining PAC12 members years ago. Trying to fill in the geographical gap with a Texas school like UHouston or Baylor would have been a good move. The PAC 12 schools remaining after USC and UCLA bolted REALLY REALLY tried to stick together, and that was the ACC's chance to capitalize. Unfortunately, ACC shuffled about until most of the remaining PAC12 schools found other homes.
I grew up watching GT in the ACC. I was born well after GT left the SEC so I have no recollection of any of the SEC battles GT had. The ACC is all I've known in terms of GT fandom. You're right, it is VERY sad what's going on. However, that's the nature of business. You either adjust, or die. GT stayed in the ACC for sentimental reasons in 2012/2013, and we may have sealed our fate at that time.
**Something else I touched on earlier in this thread that's interesting to ponder. Would the ACC have survived had GT moved to the B1G in 2012? Atlanta's media market carriage fees probably formed a big part of the ACC's valuation at the time. Had GT moved to the B1G, would that have precipitated other schools to move as well given the ACC no longer could have capitalized on carriage fees of Atlanta and GT? Interesting how GT is central to the ACC's future in one shape or another.
www.espn.com
www.sportsmediawatch.com
www.cbssports.com
