Conference Realignment

Augusta_Jacket

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The ACC will be around. Conferences are still useful.

What we are seeing play out is the separation of the elite sports schools from the rest. Eventually (and that could be 3-4 years), there will be a College Football Association with revenue shared by tier, not by conference. The goal for conferences is get as many teams as you can into the top tiers.

This will ultimately work out. But the NCAA should have organized this 20-25 years ago.

This. Money is the driving factor. When money is the driving factor, then eventually you have to add value to the contract. In 10-15 years you are likely to see the top schools leave both the SEC and B1G to form a super-conference and not have the Vandy's and Rutgers type teams dragging down your ability to make even more money.
 

UgaBlows

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I think the Big 12 has a decent sleeper chance of being a big surprise in the twenty year time frame since they have growing up and comer schools that aren’t completely focused on trying to be the absolute best academically and appealing to helicopter parents and students who don’t have football as much on their radar.

But I think they’re fighting the SEC’s and Big 10’s work of trying to kill conferences and shrink the pool so it will be an uphill climb to build a national audience.
I’m not so sure they have any teams that generate national interest in seeing them play one another? It’s a league of second rate teams and misfits with zero headliners.
 

cpf2001

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I’m not so sure they have any teams that generate national interest in seeing them play one another? It’s a league of second rate teams and misfits with zero headliners.
It’s definitely a sleeper chance/gamble type of thing.

I’m on the fence now about where I think national interest will play out. Tv brought $$$$ to the game, but in the long run can a small CFB “super league” really compete with the NFL in the national interest and $$$ game if you can see any game you want on TV anywhere? We’ve already seen big drops in in-person attendance… and the NFL starting to encroach on Thursday nights etc…

Can CFB really have national interest twenty years from now without 100+ teams to provide a big and broad and distributed fanbase? If you try to fight the NFL on its own “the best football” terms, how do you stand a chance?
 

jojatk

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A large part of the PAC’s collapse are their own doing, or from a massive failure of leadership


I think every piece of content I've read has been roasting George Kliavkoff (current PAC commish) and Larry Scott (former PAC commish) for EPIC failures of leadership rather than other conferences just poaching. Some of the decisions made by these two gentlemen are borderline criminal in their stupidiity.
 

UgaBlows

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I love how VT and UVA are in this so called magnificent 7. I really don’t see the draw of either of them? Especially VT.
If you ever read ACC realignment threads on cfb on reddit, VT people on there are constantly downtalking GT for our ****ty record the past few years, completely oblivious to their own recent failings and empty trophy case. They have a very overinflated opinion of their program.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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I love how VT and UVA are in this so called magnificent 7. I really don’t see the draw of either of them? Especially VT.

VT draws TV viewers. UVA does not.

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Roswellgoldmember

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B1G does not care the FSU isn't the dominant "FSU" of the 90's. What they care about is FSU's ability to pull in eyeballs...and FSU has been one of the best teams at pulling in eyeballs for the last 3 decades. FSU is also in a state that's strategic to B1G's growth. Here's a deep dive into a historical viewership:


The ACC has three main brands pacing them with FSU, Clemson, and Miami generally in that order. It’s not shocking as FSU is probably the closest to being a blue blood and had nationally relevant success from 2013-2015. Clemson obviously has had an incredible amount of success and has been elite all decade. Miami hasn’t been dominant but their brand is immense.

If you want to know why Miami is also a target, there's your answer.

FSU has long been rumored to be a B1G target. I doubt they're saber rattling without having discussions with other conferences.

VT draws TV viewers. UVA does not.

View attachment 14555
what is the 'Top 21' games? These are the top 21 games for each team?
 

Augusta_Jacket

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If you ever read ACC realignment threads on cfb on reddit, VT people on there are constantly downtalking GT for our ****ty record the past few years, completely oblivious to their own recent failings and empty trophy case. They have a very overinflated opinion of their program.

Their recent failings are much better than ours. 2020 was the first time they missed a bowl since 1992. We are in no position to criticize VT at the moment. Maybe in a few more years...
 

Augusta_Jacket

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what is the 'Top 21' games? These are the top 21 games for each team?

methodology is in the article, but yes, they sampled the top 21 games over that period to build a point of comparison for all teams.

 

CEB

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VT draws TV viewers. UVA does not.

View attachment 14555
This is an eight year chart with three abysmal years included for Tech. The first of those abysmal years probably wasn’t as bad since there was optimism in spite of results. The last two were probably pretty bad. How much of a drag was there on these figures? What I’m really interested in is how much we can potentially move the needle if things start looking up on the flats...

ETA... I now see the top 21 thing... assuming that it’ll not be easy to move the needle since most of the ugly stuff was likely tossed out already...
 

TampaBuzz

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methodology is in the article, but yes, they sampled the top 21 games over that period to build a point of comparison for all teams.

I am not sure how to take those numbers. They could be seriously skewed by one or two games against top rated out of conference teams each year. Are 9 of our 21 counted games against UGA?
 

Roswellgoldmember

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I am not sure how to take those numbers. They could be seriously skewed by one or two games against top rated out of conference teams each year. Are 9 of our 21 counted games against UGA?
I saw some other numbers posted and it was quite different from these. Maybe this is a god proxy for tv value but really could be skewed by OOC schedule and the timing of those games.
 

RonJohn

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Yes, let's look at things objectively:

1. You have members of a conference (the ACC) that have openly said their conference media contract is untenable to compete with their national "peers":



2. You have what is arguably the ACC's biggest brand openly saying they want out because they can't compete with the money the ACC can afford to pay out. They won't get out any time soon, but the tea leaves are telling everyone as soon as they find a way out they're gone. This is from FSU's school president, NOT some AD tossing media bombs. At this point it's saber rattling from FSU, but as the GOR end date gets closer, it's pretty much a promise...especially for the ACC schools that are targets for other conferences.




3. You have the two biggest conferences (SEC and B1G) in open expansion to secure their position as the kings of college sports. One conference (the B1G) has well known national aspirations. What's the only region they're not in at the moment? The Southeast. Which conference has multiple "like minded" schools in a region the B1G has made it known they want to be in? The ACC. Which conference has teams (UVE, UNC) that are well known to have been past targets of the SEC? The ACC. Which conference has members openly complaining about distributions because they can't compete with teams from the B1G and SEC? The ACC. Which conference has no chance to increase member distributions to compete with the two largest conferences? The ACC.


This isn't emotional "whining and moaning"...it's reading the tea leaves and understanding the reality on the horizon once the GOR ends for the ACC.

I would go further to say that anyone who doesn't see the end of the ACC coming is irrationally burying their head in the sand and ignoring all the signs that the ACC is not going survive in its current state once the GOR ends (or a member finds a legal way out). Will the ACC live on after the GOR ends? Yes, but in name only...certainly not as the ACC we know today.

1. The schools "reported" to have met. Not openly speaking out, only FSU has been public. And even if they are saying that the current situation is not good, is that a desire to leave or to squeeze more out of ESPN? I even saw one report that am FSU insider said the public FSU fits have been to try to squeeze more out of ESPN. (Not that I put much faith in one report). I didn't see the "magnificent seven" making public statements, it was all "reporting". Even among those reported seven, not all of them would have a landing spot if the conference was ended, so it doesn't make a lot of sense.

2. FSU being the biggest brand is certainly arguable. They have the second most revenue. I think they are too caught up in proximity belief. If you get outside of the Southeast, they are not a highly regarded brand. It is definitely saber rattling. They have had one good season in the last several years, and believe they are the same as the 90s teams again.

3. The Big10 and SEC are getting better media money for the next 6-7 years. The Big12 is getting smaller media money for the next few years. We don't know what will happen in 7 years. The money in the ACC might increase, or the current contract might not look too bad if ESPN isn't pushing negotiations higher for the other conferences.

Like I said earlier, seven years ago all the pundants said that the ACC was the weakest of the P5 and would be the next to fall. Currently the ACC is third in media money and third in football. It will be hard to get to a level higher than either the Big10 or SEC, but still higher than the Big12.

I don't know what the situation will be in seven years, but reading the tea leaves seven years ago, the ACC should be extinct already. That didn't happen yet. The current furvor is just hysteria. GT should do everything possible to be prepared for all kinds of contingencies. Giving into our believing in the hysteria will usually cause you too fail, even if the worst part of the hysterical fear doesn't come to pass.
 

RamblinRed

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More content referencing the Jon Ourand article. My general take on this. The easy, cheap money years are over. Media companies are starting to be held to much more exacting financial performance.


I think this is particularly impactful.

The delay from last year, when ESPN, Fox and CBS were willing to do a deal, to last week, when all three put forth small bids, was devastating to the Pac-12. A changing media landscape — with shrinking subscriber numbers and employee layoffs — caused the networks to be much more disciplined in where to spend their money than they have in the past.

Similarly, Wall Street hit the streamers hard as shares fell once bankers started prioritizing profits over subscriber growth and caused deep-pocketed companies like Amazon and Apple to also become more disciplined in how much they spend on sports rights.
 
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