Conference Realignment

bobongo

bobongo

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iceeater1969 said:
I think we are all saying
The tail grew so much larger than the dog so that now what exists is really a big tail with a small dog attached that is made up of same number of schools attached.

Now the giant tail is financially over extended. They will not accept this. They will cut the weak schools - weak meaning teams that arent fun to watch or are in weak market.
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-Aesop
 
roadkill

roadkill

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SOWEGA Jacket said:
What I think we all can agree on is that all of this movement from 5 years ago to over the next 5 years will lead to 1) a hugely expanded playoff system, and 2) the increasing chance that some conferences will break away from the NCAA in football and form their own entity.

I welcome either scenario because as a fan all I want is to watch meaningful games and have my team have a chance to prove themselves on the field during those special years when we have a highly competitive team. While we all really enjoyed the 2014 season I think we all had that same feeling after the Orange Bowl that if only we could play more games and show even more.

These super conferences aren’t going to settle for a limited playoff because they’ll want to show case they’re top 6-8 teams and make money off them. And at some point they’ll realize they can hoard the money by creating their own playoff. Either way I’m fine because if my beloved GT gets in with the big boys then once every 20 years we’ll shock the world and if we stay down in the academic league we’ll be in the playoff mix often with similarly academically minded teams. I know many fans of D2 teams and they have great football seasons rooting for their teams and getting playoff bids.
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When in doubt, follow the money. If you do this, @SOWEGA Jacket is directionally correct.
Specifically, the entity that controls the majority of the most meaningful games will control the most $$, and thus be able to dictate what conferences and their teams must do. That entity will soon become the College Football Playoff organization (CFP). This entity already controls as much revenue as any single conference, and after expanding to 12 games next year, and then potentially as many as 24, will control revenue that dwarfs any single conference. If the NCAA follows the Knight Commission recommendations, they will spin off D1 College football oversight into a separate organization to be joined at the hip with the CFP.

I believe this is the future of D1/FBS football.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

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roadkill said:
When in doubt, follow the money. If you do this, @SOWEGA Jacket is directionally correct.
Specifically, the entity that controls the majority of the most meaningful games will control the most $$, and thus be able to dictate what conferences and their teams must do. That entity will soon become the College Football Playoff organization (CFP). This entity already controls as much revenue as any single conference, and after expanding to 12 games next year, and then potentially as many as 24, will control revenue that dwarfs any single conference. If the NCAA follows the Knight Commission recommendations, they will spin off D1 College football oversight into a separate organization to be joined at the hip with the CFP.

I believe this is the future of D1/FBS football.
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Yep. Exactly. This should have happened 40 years ago but those thieves who ran the bowl system perfected the art of the “$100 handshake” to the right people and kept a stranglehold on the post season. Remember the angst when the tipping point was finally reached with fans clamoring. The bowls were howling all over the media about “student-athletes”, “tradition”, “pageantry”, “ history”, etc as they continued to line their pockets and pit #1 vs. #5 and #2 vs. #7 under the guise of “tradition”. Remember the Rose Bowl holding their breath in the corner? Well, I hope they enjoy their 4 team PAC 12 tradition now.
 

GTweatherguy

Georgia Tech Fan
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It will be curious to see how a program like Oregon State responds. The fact that just a few days ago their AD was banking on a ~$30M year media contract to pay the bills is now all of a sudden gone… Imagine if Tech finds itself the odd man out in a similar situation if the ACC implodes. I guess that’s why Cabrera and J Batt are paid the big bucks to worry about those things.

While FSU’s bluster may not amount to much, if they are successful and somehow figure out a way to void the GOR, the flood gates will open and I hope Tech has a plan to avoid being stuck on the outside looking in. For these reasons, I think the next couple years of Tech football are crucial for our brand and storied tradition.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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To help to get our new bb coach to leave the Boston Celitic , our Prez held a lunch w the Mayor of Atl , Batt, and DS.
We just added a young recruiting Coord for BB.

Angel and Batt are building.

TV playoffs in Atl with airlines , hotels, the benz , gt facilities.
If our young oc to be amazing , we will showing enough progress to make the cut..
 

Oldgoldandwhite

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I don’t see the rosy outlook that lots of people do. This is copied from one of the most recent finds I just googled.
Here's an overview of cord-cutting statistics:

  • 95.1 million people will cut the cord in the US by 2023, which is 35.9% of the US population.
  • There will be 80.7 million cord-cutting US households by 2026.
  • 56% of Americans watch cable or satellite TV.
  • In the Q3 of 2022, Pay-TV lost about 785,000 subscribers, up from a net loss of 650,000 in Q3 of 2021.
  • 112.9 million consumers or 41.6% of the US population will cut the cord by 2026.
  • Save up to $70 a month by cutting cable TV.
  • By 2030, it is expected that the prevalence of cable and satellite TV would have decreased by 7%.
  • Nearly all Americans aged 25-34 access TV content through the internet.
  • Comcast had 16.6 million pay TV subscribers by Q3 of 2022, down by 1 million from Q1 2022.
  • 90% of young people prefer this method.
  • Among the younger segment of viewers, those aged 18-24, the percentage is similar: 87% opt for internet access.
  • As of February 2022, Netflix has $40 Billion in subscribers.
 
Vespidae

Vespidae

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GTweatherguy said:
It will be curious to see how a program like Oregon State responds. The fact that just a few days ago their AD was banking on a ~$30M year media contract to pay the bills is now all of a sudden gone… Imagine if Tech finds itself the odd man out in a similar situation if the ACC implodes. I guess that’s why Cabrera and J Batt are paid the big bucks to worry about those things.

While FSU’s bluster may not amount to much, if they are successful and somehow figure out a way to void the GOR, the flood gates will open and I hope Tech has a plan to avoid being stuck on the outside looking in. For these reasons, I think the next couple years of Tech football are crucial for our brand and storied tradition.
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If Tech wants to survive, it must deal with its long term debt. I can foresee a case that if it doesn’t, it will have to drop D1 football.

Long overdue.
 
Vespidae

Vespidae

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Oldgoldandwhite said:
I don’t see the rosy outlook that lots of people do. This is copied from one of the most recent finds I just googled.
Here's an overview of cord-cutting statistics:

  • 95.1 million people will cut the cord in the US by 2023, which is 35.9% of the US population.
  • There will be 80.7 million cord-cutting US households by 2026.
  • 56% of Americans watch cable or satellite TV.
  • In the Q3 of 2022, Pay-TV lost about 785,000 subscribers, up from a net loss of 650,000 in Q3 of 2021.
  • 112.9 million consumers or 41.6% of the US population will cut the cord by 2026.
  • Save up to $70 a month by cutting cable TV.
  • By 2030, it is expected that the prevalence of cable and satellite TV would have decreased by 7%.
  • Nearly all Americans aged 25-34 access TV content through the internet.
  • Comcast had 16.6 million pay TV subscribers by Q3 of 2022, down by 1 million from Q1 2022.
  • 90% of young people prefer this method.
  • Among the younger segment of viewers, those aged 18-24, the percentage is similar: 87% opt for internet access.
  • As of February 2022, Netflix has $40 Billion in subscribers.
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Totally agree. But there will be a streaming component to replace cable distribution. As lucrative? No.

This reminds me of the music industry. It used to be give away concerts to get people buy records. Now it’s giving away records to get people to go to concerts.
 

Oldgoldandwhite

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I wouldn’t mind taking those four, but don’t see any upside. Playing Stanford would be neat and maybe adding Gonzaga for the triangle Basketball fans. But other than that?
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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Vespidae said:
It’s math. If Tech can’t keep the revenue coming in, it MUST reduce costs. Or declare bankruptcy.
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You are right.

Got to make it to the reorganization or we are bankrupt.

To make that cut , the tv guys won't take us if we stay near the bottom of acc in donations + ticket sales. Need an up tic over next few years.

Lets enjoy the new energy, the games, and getting coach johnson back on campus

It is what it is! Go Jackets.
 

cpf2001

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Sports will be very valuable to streaming because you can't skip the ads or watch on tape-delay and get the same experience. I saw some stuff a while back about how much money a "with ads" subscriber to some streaming services brings in vs a "without ads" one, it was stark how lucrative those ads are.

That's why I can't really see Disney fully cutting ESPN loose and letting it fail. They're still making billions a year overall, and owning as many sports contracts as they do means they'll be in great shape when the dust settles if they make it through the shake-up first.

But if you have to specifically buy the "sports streaming service" or whatever instead of just getting it on basic cable by default, I think it will be important to market a bit differently - get butts in seats by giving people a fun real-life event to go to, then put a good enough product on the field that they want to follow it more later.
 
Papa Foxtrot

Papa Foxtrot

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409
cpf2001 said:
That's why I can't really see Disney fully cutting ESPN loose and letting it fail.
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DIS has huge management issues right now and I wouldn't put anything past Iger at this point. He's looking for "strategic partners", but no one seems to know who that would be. I'm guessing that the Sinclair/Bally fiasco would leave possible partners a bit gun shy....
 
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