Conference Realignment

[cpf2001]

That hasn’t been the case. Intra-conference games are the most watched games in the country. Once a fan‘s team has been eliminated (by the third week in September), fans move to their second favorite team which may still be in the running.

1. Michigan–Ohio State (FOX) 17.1 million
2. Tennessee–Georgia (CBS) 13.1 million
3. Alabama-Tennessee (CBS) 11.6 million
4. LSU-Georgia (SEC Championship) (CBS) 10.9 million
5. Purdue-Michigan (Big Ten Championship) (FOX) 10.7 million
6. Alabama-Texas (FOX) 10.6 million
7. Notre Dame-Ohio State (ABC) 10.5 million
8. Kansas State–TCU (Big 12 Championship) 9.4 million
9. Alabama-Ole Miss (CBS) 8.7 million
10. Ohio State-Penn State (FOX) 8.3 million

That’s the gamble. None of those numbers are that high compared to the NFL, even regular season NFL.

A lot of people are betting on consolidation around programs doing well today, assuming numbers will just keep going up if they keep doing what they’re doing, and that shooting themselves in the foot is impossible.

But is there enough depth? Huge chunks of the country are completely absent. What would it take to bring 12M viewers to a college regular season Broncos/Clippers equivalent for ESPN Monday Night in October?

Can a regional sport thrive enough to let overall viewership trend up long term in a way to have the same caliber of TV deal revenue in ten, twenty years? The line always goes up until it doesn’t.

The Big10 seems to be thinking about it, but I don’t think they can do it on their own, and there seems to be no interest in a higher level national coordinated effort.

Last year I watched maybe 20% of the amount of non-GT games I watched fifteen years ago. I watched 2 quarters of UGA games (outside of the GT one). I just don’t care about them anymore. It’s hard not to see it as a rigged game that I simply don’t have to think about if GT isn’t doing well since I don’t live anywhere near Athens.

 

[Vespidae]

That’s the gamble. None of those numbers are that high compared to the NFL, even regular season NFL.

A lot of people are betting on consolidation around programs doing well today, assuming numbers will just keep going up if they keep doing what they’re doing, and that shooting themselves in the foot is impossible.

But is there enough depth? Huge chunks of the country are completely absent. What would it take to bring 12M viewers to a college regular season Broncos/Clippers equivalent for ESPN Monday Night in October?

Can a regional sport thrive enough to let overall viewership trend up long term in a way to have the same caliber of TV deal revenue in ten, twenty years? The line always goes up until it doesn’t.

The Big10 seems to be thinking about it, but I don’t think they can do it on their own, and there seems to be no interest in a higher level national coordinated effort.

Congratulations. You just described the SEC strategy. Sankey has been articulating this exact theme for the last few years.

 

[cpf2001]

Congratulations. You just described the SEC strategy. Sankey has been articulating this exact theme for the last few years.

And they’re gonna drive themselves into the ground with it. It’s gonna work great to find a local maximum until they are the NHL and the southeast is Canada.

 

[Vespidae]

And they’re gonna drive themselves into the ground with it. It’s gonna work great to find a local maximum until they are the NHL and the southeast is Canada.

“A 16-team Southeastern Conference that includes Texas and Oklahoma would be such a financial powerhouse that its revenue quickly would become equivalent to the NCAA’s, a USA TODAY Sports analysis of conference and association financial records shows.

However, based on the documents and interviews with industry experts familiar with the finances and revenue capabilities of Power Five conference schools, a path can be drawn to a 16-team SEC with Texas and Oklahoma having close to $1.3 billion in revenue for its 2024-25 fiscal year. That’s likely where the NCAA will be, assuming it remains on schedule for the payout from its multi-media and marketing rights agreement with CBS and Turner for the Division I men’s basketball tournament to increase to $990 million in what would be the first year of an extension made in March 2016.”

Yep. Driving themselves right into the ground.

 

[cpf2001]

Look if you don’t believe there’s a chance of an infection point for a regional league hitting a local maximum and then falling off, that’s fine, but maybe read the part where I said it has worked great so far so you don’t just post numbers that agree with both of us.

The SEC right now is as dominant on the field as off the field. But without some national strategy, what’s next? Where’s the growth?

All these current high numbers were built in a zero interest rate, invest in content like crazy to fight for position in the streaming wars world. Now reality has caught up and we’ve exited “everybody benefits, just some leagues more than others.” Now you’re gonna have to show sustained growth without free money if you want to keep pulling in this much from TV.

As your list shows, the geographic footprint of competitive, interesting schools is small. So where’s the growth potential?

 

[Vespidae]

Look if you don’t believe there’s a chance of an infection point for a regional league hitting a local maximum and then falling off, that’s fine, but maybe read the part where I said it has worked great so far so you don’t just post numbers that agree with both of us.

The SEC right now is as dominant on the field as off the field. But without some national strategy, what’s next? Where’s the growth?

All these current high numbers were built in a zero interest rate, invest in content like crazy to fight for position in the streaming wars world. Now reality has caught up and we’ve exited “everybody benefits, just some leagues more than others.” Now you’re gonna have to show sustained growth without free money if you want to keep pulling in this much from TV.

As your list shows, the geographic footprint of competitive, interesting schools is small. So where’s the growth potential?

You stated it earlier. And so has Sankey. They (CFB) will ultimately have to generate interest on the West Coast. The entire strategy has been to a) create the best possible matchups, b) increase interest is areas of the country that are not as mature as the Southeast (he specifically mentioned California), and ultimately, spread the broadcast rights across multiple partners, not just one. Very simple.

The goal has been to achieve a level of viewership that is equal to the low end of an NFL game. If they do that, media rights alone will be $1B+. You don’t have to have a local presence, but it helps.

There has been a lot of speculation that the SEC will ultimately simply take over CFB by merging with another conference or creating a new “premier league” of the country’s major universities.

 

[cpf2001]

Ah, I hadn’s seen the national interest quotes from Sankey, just “we won’t expand solely to keep
up with the Joneses” ones which I read given their history of slowly poaching their nearest old SWC neighbors as a geographic, not just numeric, thing.

 

[kg01]

You bros work out all the deets. Wake me when we're in the Big10. Mmkay?

 

[Vespidae]

Ah, I hadn’s seen the national interest quotes from Sankey, just “we won’t expand solely to keep
up with the Joneses” ones which I read given their history of slowly poaching their nearest old SWC neighbors as a geographic, not just numeric, thing.

He has stock phrases he uses, but in practice, he’s staying on point. The SEC will not add a team that does not add to its strategy. That’s why GT is of no interest to today’s SEC … the BIG has a different strategy. At least, for now.

Interesting times.

 

[CEB]

There has been a lot of speculation that the SEC will ultimately simply take over CFB by merging with another conference or creating a new “premier league” of the country’s major universities.

So they are banking that current college football fans of “non-major” (but still D1 CFP) universities will embrace a semi-pro league comprised of schools they currently aren’t interested in?
Maybe that is the play, but I’m not thinking that driving off roughly 1/2 of college football fans just to try to win them back is a good idea. I think they have to be thinking bigger than 2-3 dozen schools

 

[forensicbuzz]

He has stock phrases he uses, but in practice, he’s staying on point. The SEC will not add a team that does not add to its strategy. That’s why GT is of no interest to today’s SEC … the BIG has a different strategy. At least, for now.

Interesting times.

I’d the SEC stays regional, their growth will eventually stagnate.

 

[Vespidae]

So they are banking that current college football fans of “non-major” (but still D1 CFP) universities will embrace a semi-pro league comprised of schools they currently aren’t interested in?
Maybe that is the play, but I’m not thinking that driving off roughly 1/2 of college football fans just to try to win them back is a good idea. I think they have to be thinking bigger than 2-3 dozen schools

No, they aren’t. The reality is there isn’t much a demand for Bowling Green vs Alcorn State.

The best matchups. Thats the goal. Not any matchups.

 

[Vespidae]

I’d the SEC stays regional, their growth will eventually stagnate.

You’re thinking things stay at the conference level. It won’t. There will be a Super Conference eventually. And it will be outside of the NCAA.

 

[forensicbuzz]

So they are banking that current college football fans of “non-major” (but still D1 CFP) universities will embrace a semi-pro league comprised of schools they currently aren’t interested in?
Maybe that is the play, but I’m not thinking that driving off roughly 1/2 of college football fans just to try to win them back is a good idea. I think they have to be thinking bigger than 2-3 dozen schools

If the SEC thinks their brand, as it stands today, is going to attract fans from the west coast and the Northeast when they become some inferior version the NFL, they’re crazy.

 

[slugboy]

We’ve used a lot of numbers and stories lately. Here’s a simpler test of where we stand: who would you swap places with?

Would I trade our ACC membership with South Carolina or Miss State to be in the SEC?
I would. We’d be better off, and be better aligned for the future.

Would I trade places with Northwestern or Nebraska for a full share B1G membership? Again, it’s a more stable league, and better positioned going forward.

Would I trade with TCU or Baylor for Big 12 membership? We make more money here. As of today, we look better positioned than them (even though they’re more active in building their league now)

Would I trade places for Oregon’s partial share in the B1G, getting about $10 million a year less than us? That hasn’t worked out for Rutgers or Maryland.

As for the super-league of the future, ACC and Big 12 teams are mostly on the outside looking in. Colorado is interesting, if they don’t burn up all their money in the process.

Maybe we end up with promotion and relegation (but I doubt that)

————
Oh, some of you might like this:

If you hate what's happening to college football, here's the team to root for this season

With TV executives firmly in control of a sport that's fracturing more and more by the day, it's easy to be a jaded fan. And if you're one of those fans, you should be pulling for a school that just got left behind.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[forensicbuzz]

You’re thinking things stay at the conference level. It won’t. There will be a Super Conference eventually. And it will be outside of the NCAA.

The only way that works is if all of FBS blows up and a new league/level is formed. That means dropping teams like Vandy, Mississippi State, Rutgers, Northwestern, and other lesser quality teams. I don’t see that happening. There are a ton of overrated teams in both the B1G and SEC that wouldn’t or shouldn’t be invited to that dance just because they’re already in the conference. There’s too much power in the hands of the guys in charge now for them to willingly consolidate.

 

[CEB]

No, they aren’t. The reality is there isn’t much a demand for Bowling Green vs Alcorn State.

The best matchups. Thats the goal. Not any matchups.

I’m not talking BGSU and Alcorn. If the 18-20 team SEC and BIG combine for a 36 -40 team league of “major college” football (which is the leading presumption of fans and media) you’ve dropped fans of schools like GT, VT, NCSU, most of the B12 and anything that’s left of the PAC.
If the goal is eyeballs and / or subscription, that alone cuts 1/2 of the potential audience.
Doesn’t seem like a sound path to what they’re trying to achieve in my mind...

 

[stech81]

The only way that works is if all of FBS blows up and a new league/level is formed. That means dropping teams like Vandy, Mississippi State, Rutgers, Northwestern, and other lesser quality teams. I don’t see that happening. There are a ton of overrated teams in both the B1G and SEC that wouldn’t or shouldn’t be invited to that dance just because they’re already in the conference. There’s too much power in the hands of the guys in charge now for them to willingly consolidate.

But don’t you think fans of Vandy, Mississippi state, Rutgers, and Northwestern think the same thing about us?
We criticize other teams but are we any better the last few years.
I’m not picking on you I like your posts but if you go back and look everyone feels their team is better.

 

[cpf2001]

Part of the appeal of the college game is the variety which would likely be completely dead in a 40 team super league. And then … why not just watch the NFL? Minor league pro sports rarely do that well.

An 60-80 team super league could preserve history and “amateurism” and all but would be an odd duck size-and-makeup-wise and probably need a complete rethink of revenue sharing and such to actually get anyone to care about those extra 40 teams. Like, if the SEC wanted to expand to the West Coast, it’s gonna be a net negative financially in the short term after the Big 10 raids.

 

[Vespidae]

If the SEC thinks their brand, as it stands today, is going to attract fans from the west coast and the Northeast when they become some inferior version the NFL, they’re crazy.

I didn't say that. I said their strategy was to increase fan interest. There are multiple ways to do that, such as scheduling. The reality is that CFB is not as popular on the West Coast as it is elsewhere.