Conference Realignment

[RonJohn]

You seem more calm and informed about all of this than most, if FSU weasels their way out of the ACC somehow, does the tv contract between espn and the remainder of the acc still stand?

I am calm, but not more informed. I just try to filter through the chaff.

If FSU is able to convince the ACC to let them buy their media rights back, then ESPN will most likely try to get the payout to the ACC reduced by more than the loss of FSU. However, FSU would have to pay $30, 40, or maybe even 60 million per year to get their rights back. If FSU leaves the conference, fights the GOR, and loses, then ESPN will just broadcast the FSU games as before with no change to revenue.

 

[Root4GT]

I think the Big 12 needs to absorb the remaining 4 PAC ? schools that would take them to 18 teams. The ACC should try to get to 18. They could coerce 3 big 12 schools, UCF, Cincinnati, and WVU and find a fourth maybe USF. The Big 12 cold add another few schools to get to 18 like Boise State, San Diego State and SMU. I think that would stabilize things around 4 major conferences.

I don't think much else matters except jockeying for money and finding something that makes a bit of geographic sense. The Big 10 has enoung money to travel out West so they can live with their west coast step children.

What do you think UCF, Cincinnati and WVU would do for the ACC except water down the revenue each school gets from TV contracts. No network is going to increase the payout for any of those schools.

 

[Vespidae]

I think the Big 12 needs to absorb the remaining 4 PAC ?

Washington State and Oregon State are toast. They will be forced into the Mountain West with a humongous drop in dollars and prestige.

Cal and Stanford are likely to go to the Big 10. Don’t bother waking the ACC. They are comatose for another 10 years or so.

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

I think their football prowess fits right into the current level of play. UCF is the largest school in Florida and has pretty good recent success. Cincinnati has elevated itself to a quality program and WVU is as good as most any other ACC school. I think they would bring whatever current revenue stream they are receiving and doubt they would dilute the existing payouts of ACC schools. It might also open up grounds for a renegotiation of the current deal the ACC has with ESPN that could garner more money for the entire league.

 

[AUFC]

I think their football prowess fits right into the current level of play. UCF is the largest school in Florida and has pretty good recent success. Cincinnati has elevated itself to a quality program and WVU is as good as most any other ACC school. I think they would bring whatever current revenue stream they are receiving and doubt they would dilute the existing payouts of ACC schools. It might also open up grounds for a renegotiation of the current deal the ACC has with ESPN that could garner more money for the entire league.

In what world does a Big 12 team want to join the ACC? If you are in the Big 12, SEC, or Big Ten right now, you are considered safe. It's Pac-4/ACC schools who are treading water right now (drowning, in the case of Wazzu and Oregon State).

 

[UgaBlows]

I am calm, but not more informed. I just try to filter through the chaff.

If FSU is able to convince the ACC to let them buy their media rights back, then ESPN will most likely try to get the payout to the ACC reduced by more than the loss of FSU. However, FSU would have to pay $30, 40, or maybe even 60 million per year to get their rights back. If FSU leaves the conference, fights the GOR, and loses, then ESPN will just broadcast the FSU games as before with no change to revenue.

Whats your take on this?

 

[Vespidae]

I think their football prowess fits right into the current level of play. UCF is the largest school in Florida and has pretty good recent success. Cincinnati has elevated itself to a quality program and WVU is as good as most any other ACC school. I think they would bring whatever current revenue stream they are receiving and doubt they would dilute the existing payouts of ACC schools. It might also open up grounds for a renegotiation of the current deal the ACC has with ESPN that could garner more money for the entire league.

Jerry - none of those teams are among the Top 20 in viewership. And except for Clemson and FSU, none of the ACC is either.

Without matchups to generate viewers, there’s no point. CFB is pulling itself apart and money is the fulcrum.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

To reiterate, the commentators on the B1G make two assertions.

First. The B1G would like to see all the conferences stabilize at this point. They do not see the destruction of conferences as a good thing and have an affinity for loyalty, traditions and academic integrity. But they also understand that the name of the game now more than ever is money. And they are not going to leave money on the table. They claim that the deal for Oregon and Washington happened quickly because things were in flux and that even a few weeks ago this was not something they were pushing for,

Second. They think the SEC is not interested in further expansion. They like the number of teams they will have and they like a conference that is contiguous and regional. The B1G feels that their brand is national, with large numbers of fans in every state. They want to cater to those fans and nourish that brand.

I don’t think these two points are mutually exclusive. Somewhere between these points lies the course of action the B1G will take if there is further turmoil in other conferences. They mention that the ACC is an unknown factor at this point.

 

[RonJohn]

Whats your take on this?

Several things.

Mars is not a competent lawyer, just likes people saying his name out loud. A real lawyer pointed out that FL explicitly carves out breach of contract from their sovereign immunity laws, else no one would ever do business with them.

Also, the GOR is far more complicated than just a contract and a breach of contract. They could decide to not fulfil the part of the GOR that requires them to allow access to their facilities for broadcasting games. This could maybe protect them from having to pay penalties for not allowing ESPN to broadcast their games. (I doubt it) It would not allow them to sell their broadcasts to another broadcasting company. Even if they try to, no other network is going to pay for rights to broadcast games that they don't know if FSU has the rights to them. The ACC owns the copyrights to all games controlled by all ACC teams. Is Fox going to knowingly and intentionally going to broadcast content that it knows it does not have the rights to broadcast? No. If FSU tries to powerhouse their way through quirky legal maneuvers, they will likely find themselves dancing with no partners, conference nor broadcast.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

I think the Big 12 needs to absorb the remaining 4 PAC ? schools that would take them to 18 teams. The ACC should try to get to 18. They could coerce 3 big 12 schools, UCF, Cincinnati, and WVU and find a fourth maybe USF. The Big 12 could add another few schools to get to 18 like Boise State, San Diego State and SMU. I think that would stabilize things around 4 major conferences.

I don't think much else matters except jockeying for money and finding something that makes a bit of geographic sense. The Big 10 has enough money to travel out West so they can live with their west coast stepchildren.

There is nothing the ACC can do except get Notre dame to join full time.

Adding schools does nothing for the money issue. We need to eliminate 3-5 schools, if anything

 

[CEB]

So are you saying they can go to another conference if they so decide? I thought they were required to join the ACC if they decide to join a conference. They are restricted from movement to another conference. That indicates to me they could have a case that they should have a say because they are in jeopardy. Do they end up being the 8th member of the gang of 7? The lynchpin so to speak. The swing vote.

Not really what I’m saying. You’re right that the agreement requires them to join the ACC if they join a conference. Everyone has the same hurdle in a sense but because of ND not being a full member, they could much more easily reach a “settlement” in order to leave. They already have rights to their football, which is the sport driving the bus financially so pulling the rest of their sports out for a clean break would be an easier (far less expensive) exercise.

 

[tsrich]

This is all just so depressing. Sports is supposed to be fun dammit.

 

[CEB]

This is all just so depressing. Sports is supposed to be fun dammit.

On September 1st it will look just like you remember it.

 

[cpf2001]

Mentioned this a bit before, and still Not a Lawyer, but if FSU peaced out like “just sue us” I’d be immediately suing FSU, the new conference that took them, and the media companies with a deal with that conference. And two of those aren’t based in FL in the first place. Seems like your have room for an immediate injunction against all of them - the media companies if they were paying a conference for something the ACC has the right too, the conference for taking that money and distributing it to FSU, and FSU for trying to ignore the contract directly. Seems like a huge headache for the non-FSU parties to get involved in.

The Leach/state of Tx example doesn’t seem relevant cause Leach was in Texas as an employee of a Texas institution, vs a national web of contract relationships. And “we want this moved to FL so the legislature can get us out of it” doesn’t seem like it would fly in a suit filed against FSU in a different state or in federal court…?

 

[orientalnc]

I will be surprised if ACC membership doesn't include a clause about how and where disputes are handled. Also, I don't think Florida can make a contract dispute law retroactive. Would like one of our lawyer fonts to chime in.

 

[stinger 1957]

I'm guessing ASU goes to the BIG. Saw something where Stanford has hinted that they want to stay independent which I find interesting along with maybe ND and some others staying independent. It seems Nebraska fans would like to go back to Big 12 now that TX is gone, if that happens, ASU to BIG happens, then that would allow Utah to go to Big 12 with Nebraska to make it even 16 teams. We're now down to what happens to Stanford and CAL and once that is settled is it then off to the east to dismantle the ACC? I'm guessing yes. People might say Nebraska is not going to give up the bigger $ being in the BIG 10, answer, they may not have any choice. Nebraska lost their AAU membership, for those on here that may not know, AAU is a requirement of the BIG 10 to become and be a member of BIG 10.

 

[stinger 1957]

The B1G will eventually go from 18 to 24 with ACC schools when they can get out of the GOR stuff. I think the schools would be UNC, UVA, GT, FSU or Miami, Clemson (unless SEC will offer them), and Notre Dame. If ND still says no, then maybe Duke or both FSU/Miami.

The B1G will want the ATL market for television and recruiting. They will want in Florida. They will want the NC markets. Clemson is a brand. The Big 12 will take whatever leftovers the SEC doesn't want.

Clemson and FSU as it stands now will not become BIG 10 members, they are not AAU schools, I'm guessing those two end up in SEC.

 

[Randy Carson]

ACC	Big 10	Big 12	Pac 12	SEC
14+1	18	16	4	16
Boston College	Illinois	Arizona	California	Alabama
Clemson	Indiana	Arizona State	Oregon State	Arkansas
Duke	Iowa	Baylor	Stanford	Auburn
Florida State	Maryland	BYU	Washington State	Florida
Georgia Tech	Michigan	Cincinnati	(Arizona)	Georgia
Louisville	Michigan State	Colorado	(Arizona State)	Kentucky
Miami	Minnesota	Houston	(Colorado)	LSU
NCSU	Nebraska	Iowa State	(Oregon)	Mississipi State
Pittsburgh	Northwestern	Kansas	(Washington)	Missouri
Syracuse	Ohio State	Kansas State	(USC)	Oklahoma
UNC	Oregon	Oklahoma State	(UCLA)	Ole Miss
UVA	Penn State	TCU	(Utah)	South Carolina
VT	Purdue	Texas Tech		Tennessee
Wake Forest	Rutgers	UCF		Texas
	UCLA	Utah		Texas A&M
Notre Dame	USC	West Virginia		Vanderbilt
	Washington
	Wisconsin

 

[tomknight]

I just got back from a family trip to Florida. It’s a hell hole down there right now.

please

 

[Randy Carson]

Maybe this thread should be renamed, "Conference Realignment".