Conference Realignment

[orientalnc]

You mean clear-eyed and presciently?

Awwww...shucks.

Probably means more hopeful than optimistic. Clear-eyed seems like a stretch.

 

[Richard7125]

The Big12 just negotiated a new media deal for $32m/school/year. The Pac12 (with Oregon and Washington) has been struggling to negotiate a media deal, but all projections suggest it will be less than the Big12. The ACC’s current deal is roughly $40m/school/year. If the GOR was up next year and all of the current ACC schools remained, what kind of media deal do you think the ACC could get?

 

[forensicbuzz]

You mean clear-eyed and presciently?

Awwww...shucks.

By that, I meant that we are always looking for the shaft right around the corner. We know somewhere, sometime, someone is going to try to stick it to us.

(or any of another 5-10 interpretations)

 

[RamblinRed]

The Big12 just negotiated a new media deal for $32m/school/year. The Pac12 (with Oregon and Washington) has been struggling to negotiate a media deal, but all projections suggest it will be less than the Big12. The ACC’s current deal is roughly $40m/school/year. If the GOR was up next year and all of the current ACC schools remained, what kind of media deal do you think the ACC could get?

I don't think the ACC would get much more than it is getting now. It does not have as many large football properties as the B1G or SEC.
The other issue is that the main buyer would likely be ESPN. ACC provides more content to ESPN than any other conference, they can't really afford to lose the ACC from a content standpoint and its competitors already have their content so wouldn't be likely to make any big offer for ACC. ESPN is not in a position to significantly increase its payouts right now.

 

[RamblinRed]

If FSU keeps yapping i'd tell them fine, pay us the exit fee and the GOR amount you would receive - you can even prorate it over the next decade - and you can go.
They would basically be paying $50M+/yr for a decade to the ACC. They would literally be so far behind financially with who they are competing with they would never field competitive teams.

 

[RamblinRed]

This is an interesting read

Third-party influence may soon shake foundation of college football impacting conferences, programs

How does a new conference financed with a $1 billion investment sound to you, college football fan?

www.cbssports.com

 

[RamblinRed]

I will say the comments from alot of the national media types who watched the FSU show yesterday are not positive at all toward FSU. Stewart Mandel was laughing at all the 'deserves' comments.

While I understand their concern of falling behind, that is legit, if ACC were to hold their feet to the fire they would owe more than $500M to the ACC (for both the exit fee and GoR) and would be looking at making $350M more than they currently would over the next 12-13 years. Has anybody at FSU actually looked at the financials from more than just a pure revenue perspective?

 

[Techster]

Good thought. Only me saying personally not that excited by ending up with a B1G and PAC whatever beyond USC and UCLA that is already there.

Posted back in the spring Cyndi Lauper had it right...$$$ changes everything...and boy are the times a changin' (borrowing from a Minnesota native Mr. Dylan). Much rather dive into the heart of SEC country and get a GT or FSU or even Clemson...but prefer GT, which is better than Nebbie to me.

So in the end not disagreeing just not excited. Also, I'm a Minnesota fan...powerhouse in the past but hopefully knocking at the door again soon enough...just like Tech....

I can see your POV on this. Let me add though, Oregon and Washington are BOTH very good programs that are well funded. Both programs have very big fan bases. From an on the field perspective, Oregon and Washington "raises all boats" in the B1G.

B1G was never going to leave USC and UCLA on an island out in the West.

B1G has now entered a new phase. I think it will be awkward and clunky at first, but eventually the B1G is going to rival professional leagues in terms popularity. Purists and traditionalists will hate it, but college sports have now entered the eat or be eaten phase. As a fan of a team in the ACC, it's much better to be in the "eat" side, then the "eaten" side. Unfortunately, it looks like GT and the ACC are in a delayed inevitability of being "eaten",

 

[roadkill]

This is an interesting read

Third-party influence may soon shake foundation of college football impacting conferences, programs

How does a new conference financed with a $1 billion investment sound to you, college football fan?

www.cbssports.com

Apparently, I wasn't the first to think of this..."More than 2 ½ years ago, the Knight Commission called for FBS to separate from the NCAA. In 2021, Ohio State AD Gene Smith suggested the CFP take over the FBS."
Makes too much sense to happen.

 

[a5ehren]

I think the Saudi PIF will try to setup something in college football. The NFL owners won't let them in anytime soon, but college won't be as unified. We will not be in that league.

 

[a5ehren]

I will say the comments from alot of the national media types who watched the FSU show yesterday are not positive at all toward FSU. Stewart Mandel was laughing at all the 'deserves' comments.

While I understand their concern of falling behind, that is legit, if ACC were to hold their feet to the fire they would owe more than $500M to the ACC (for both the exit fee and GoR) and would be looking at making $350M more than they currently would over the next 12-13 years. Has anybody at FSU actually looked at the financials from more than just a pure revenue perspective?

They live in a delusional universe where they think they can negotiate a lower buyout somehow.

 

[a5ehren]

The Big12 just negotiated a new media deal for $32m/school/year. The Pac12 (with Oregon and Washington) has been struggling to negotiate a media deal, but all projections suggest it will be less than the Big12. The ACC’s current deal is roughly $40m/school/year. If the GOR was up next year and all of the current ACC schools remained, what kind of media deal do you think the ACC could get?

The rumor for the Pac 10 deal was Apple doing $20M/year + escalators from subscription numbers. Bad enough to where anyone with a choice is leaving.

The ACC would probably get (roughly) the Big 12 deal if we had to go to the table right now. It would not be anywhere close to the B1G/SEC deals.

 

[Richard7125]

The rumor for the Pac 10 deal was Apple doing $20M/year + escalators from subscription numbers. Bad enough to where anyone with a choice is leaving.

The ACC would probably get (roughly) the Big 12 deal if we had to go to the table right now. It would not be anywhere close to the B1G/SEC deals.

So you think the ACC would get a lesser deal than we currently have?

 

[a5ehren]

Yes, I think so.

 

[cpf2001]

I can see your POV on this. Let me add though, Oregon and Washington are BOTH very good programs that are well funded. Both programs have very big fan bases. From an on the field perspective, Oregon and Washington "raises all boats" in the B1G.

B1G was never going to leave USC and UCLA on an island out in the West.

B1G has now entered a new phase. I think it will be awkward and clunky at first, but eventually the B1G is going to rival professional leagues in terms popularity. Purists and traditionalists will hate it, but college sports have now entered the eat or be eaten phase. As a fan of a team in the ACC, it's much better to be in the "eat" side, then the "eaten" side. Unfortunately, it looks like GT and the ACC are in a delayed inevitability of being "eaten",

I’m not sure there are that many people on the west coast who don’t currently care about CFB who are going to be more compelled by UCLA-Michigan than by UCLA-Cal. UCLA/USC are more historic names where that might have more national appeal boost than in Los Angeles itself, but the growth path for Oregon/Washington or others seems narrow.

Based in pro league west coast trends maybe they should’ve added UNLV.

 

[Techwood Relict]

This public BOT meeting is embarrassing.

I asked ChatGPT what are FSUs chances of slipping the GOR yoke anytime soon. This is what it produced.
Seems about right.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I have a feeling that when the music stops, there is not going to be a chair for us anywhere we want to be.

Not worried. Good path to the playoffs. Just like FSU and Clemson in a weaker ACC

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

The Big12 just negotiated a new media deal for $32m/school/year. The Pac12 (with Oregon and Washington) has been struggling to negotiate a media deal, but all projections suggest it will be less than the Big12. The ACC’s current deal is roughly $40m/school/year. If the GOR was up next year and all of the current ACC schools remained, what kind of media deal do you think the ACC could get?

The ACC has basketball which is good programing for ESPN.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

The ACC has basketball which is good programing for ESPN.

Basketball money is chump change compared to football money.

Honestly, the save for the ACC is to let the Saudis buy out the conference. I don't know why they would but I don't know why they pay a bunch of golfers a gazillion dollars to never be on TV

 

[CEB]

So you think the ACC would get a lesser deal than we currently have?

Short answer, YES.
As recently as a few weeks ago I thought the ACC deal was undervalued. Now I’m not so sure.
That said, I would fully expect us to be ahead of the PAC and B12 (for now). One thing that all of these discussions of markets and values and revenues and TV eyeballs has produced is an abundance of information that consistently shows the ACC as the #3 conference by about every measure.
Honestly, while everyone is knocking the PAC and pointing and laughing about the quality of teams, it’s biggest problem IMO is perception. They lost UCLA /USC, Colorado jumped to B12 for likely a short term gain and Wash and Oregon are actively marketing themselves to highest bidders. It’s almost impossible to assign a value to that as a media partner.
Back to caveat my first answer....The whining out of Tallahassee is getting louder and the perception of GOR is that no school should ever sign such a thing ever again. Absent the GOR, we look just like the PAC. We have some great universities with solid athletic programs in good tv markets but every single one of them is looking for the next opportunity to move on. Think about it... Clemson /FSU / UNC take the role of USC / UCLA. Louisville, the shortest tenured member and a bit of a geographical oddity goes all Colorado on us and jumps at the B12, then you have some combination of UVA, VT, Miami, GT, Pittand NCST holding out hope and ready to pounce at the first SEC / BIG opportunity. Hard to put together a marketing brochure on that!