Conference Realignment

[CEB]

Here's a dumb question I've asked here before but got no response: Since the contract runs 13 more years, and since, as we've been told, ESPN is losing subscribers/viewers every year, won't the contract be comparatively more advantageous for the ACC and less so for ESPN with each passing year? What am I missing?

Very possible, IMO. I have argued that I think the current ACC deal is under valued in today’s market. It could also be true that the market has peaked and could be retracting. Maybe by virtue of the long contract we missed the “highs” of the bubble, and we’re headed back the other way.
For that matter... It could also be possible that the next round of media talks for the BIG and SEC aren’t the windfall increases they have seen recently. Media seems to be changing daily... They may come back to “ACC” levels in 8-10 years when renewal discussions fire up.
In short, I have no idea, but it’s certainly plausible.

 

[iceeater1969]

Very possible, IMO. I have argued that I think the current ACC deal is under valued in today’s market. It could also be true that the market has peaked and could be retracting. Maybe by virtue of the long contract we missed the “highs” of the bubble, and we’re headed back the other way.
For that matter... It could also be possible that the next round of media talks for the BIG and SEC aren’t the windfall increases they have seen recently. Media seems to be changing daily... They may come back to “ACC” levels in 8-10 years when renewal discussions fire up.
In short, I have no idea, but it’s certainly plausible.

If the big 10 and sec moneys go down (%) , wont the acc money (%) will also down even more if the acc doesn't get on a hot streak.

Betting on un-certainty 10-15 years out is a sure thing. At some point a negotated risk sharing revenue deal with performance metrics will make sense. Did this on several mega oil pipeline projects in boom and in bust. Gave up some $ in boom but also got thru the busts
In Angel and Batt we trust.

 

[roadkill]

If the big 10 and sec moneys go down (%) , wont the acc money (%) will also down even more if the acc doesn't get on a hot streak.

Betting on un-certainty 10-15 years out is a sure thing. At some point a negotated risk sharing revenue deal with performance metrics will make sense. Did this on several mega oil pipeline projects in boom and in bust. Gave up some $ in boom but also got thru the busts
In Angel and Batt we trust.

Since no one seems to have details of the ESPN agreement, does anyone care to speculate on the revenue payout calculation? It seems to be increasing each year. Is it tied to ad revenue, eyeballs, or is there some sort of escalating revenue guarantee? Just wondering, since in the face of declining subs it seems likely that the payout would decrease if it was allowed in the contract.

 

[CEB]

If the big 10 and sec moneys go down (%) , wont the acc money (%) will also down even more if the acc doesn't get on a hot streak.

Betting on un-certainty 10-15 years out is a sure thing. At some point a negotated risk sharing revenue deal with performance metrics will make sense. Did this on several mega oil pipeline projects in boom and in bust. Gave up some $ in boom but also got thru the busts
In Angel and Batt we trust.

Ultimately, yes. But since those other conferences will renegotiate before the ACC, there could be a period of 2-4 years where the revenues could tighten before we would likely follow suit and drop accordingly after 2036.

For what it’s worth, I’m not banking on that but in the context of the question asked earlier, it’s possible. As you state, the long contract could protect us from a down (for a time) just as easily as it prevents us from an “up.”

 

[UgaBlows]

In general it doesn’t seem like the cost of things ever really goes down you know? Especially over a long period of time.

 

[stinger 1957]

If the TV folks revenue drops then the whole thing could go upside down and certainly the advertising business is fast changing, watching Walmart for instance having big increases in ad revenue as they get into ecommerce more and more, those bucks are being taken out of some ad bucks that were going somewhere else more than likely. That is and will be happening more and more. I do believe the media is heading for some big change in the next few years, they will be looking for content that brings eyeballs and helps get them in the good graces of the American public again. The media could be in survival mode going forward. Does college sports programming help them with all of their potential problems?

 

[RonJohn]

If the TV folks revenue drops then the whole thing could go upside down and certainly the advertising business is fast changing, watching Walmart for instance having big increases in ad revenue as they get into ecommerce more and more, those bucks are being taken out of some ad bucks that were going somewhere else more than likely. That is and will be happening more and more. I do believe the media is heading for some big change in the next few years, they will be looking for content that brings eyeballs and helps get them in the good graces of the American public again. The media could be in survival mode going forward. Does college sports programming help them with all of their potential problems?

The bigger problem for TV revenue as it relates to sports is the current business model for sports TV. ESPN still gets the majority of their revenue from subscriptions instead of advertising. The majority of people who subscribe do not watch ESPN ever. If cord cutting hit 100%, ESPN would have to more than double their advertising revenue just to get to the point they are at now which isn't good financially.

I don't know what kind of business model will be in place for football revenue in 10 years, but it was foreseeable 15 years ago that the current model was not sustainable. The kind of things that I could see going forward are media deals, plus Sunday Ticket like subscriptions to be able to watch all of the SEC or Big10 games. Now that NIL is in place and employment of athletes is a distinct possibility, I could see at least the SEC doing deals with someone like DraftKings and incorporating gambling into the norm for the conference and conference broadcasts. If they want more revenue, or even to maintain the existing revenue, they will have to accept that cable/sat subscriptions are not going to continue and that ad revenue will not make up the difference.

 

[orientalnc]

Disney does not reveal much about ESPN in their financial statements, but the number of cable subscribers is rapidly decreasing. I think that is true overall, but YouTube TV is increasing. ESPN is trying to make up for that loss with higher monthly affiliate fees. There is a ceiling on that and we may be seeing it now with increased cord cutting. At the same time, ESPN+ is gaining subscribers, so the streaming model make take hold. But, paying for unbundled streaming content will be very expensive. An example, CBS might charge more for streaming March Madness by forcing you subscribe to more than just the tournament. And the CFP will almost certainly be outside any conference streaming subscription. Then there is the NFL. Will the NFL let you subscribe to single games or single teams or for the entire season?

As @RonJohn pointed out above, no one knows for certain what the universe for sports TV will be in ten years. But, I am almost certain it will not be very similar to our current status quo.

 

[iceeater1969]

The bigger problem for TV revenue as it relates to sports is the current business model for sports TV. ESPN still gets the majority of their revenue from subscriptions instead of advertising. The majority of people who subscribe do not watch ESPN ever. If cord cutting hit 100%, ESPN would have to more than double their advertising revenue just to get to the point they are at now which isn't good financially.

I don't know what kind of business model will be in place for football revenue in 10 years, but it was foreseeable 15 years ago that the current model was not sustainable. The kind of things that I could see going forward are media deals, plus Sunday Ticket like subscriptions to be able to watch all of the SEC or Big10 games. Now that NIL is in place and employment of athletes is a distinct possibility, I could see at least the SEC doing deals with someone like DraftKings and incorporating gambling into the norm for the conference and conference broadcasts. If they want more revenue, or even to maintain the existing revenue, they will have to accept that cable/sat subscriptions are not going to continue and that ad revenue will not make up the difference.

The tv money will be what it will be and then the tv guys will act

Imo, we - ncaa- could do something within there power


To level the field in portal/ nil money, the ncaa could put a sliding scale on total SCHOOL scholarships based on frequency and sucess of Playoff.

The pro teams figured this out = draft. Got to lop off / prune the concentration of talent to keep the overall sport health.

I think the mega p5 wont like it but the rest would.

Wife is really pissed that her favorite player, whom she watched for a few years has is gone to ole miss. Now she is taking me on a long vacation during the season.

 

[orientalnc]

The tv money will be what it will be and then the tv guys will act

Imo, we - ncaa- could do something within there power


To level the field in portal/ nil money, the ncaa could put a sliding scale on total SCHOOL scholarships based on frequency and sucess of Playoff.

The pro teams figured this out = draft. Got to lop off / prune the concentration of talent to keep the overall sport health.

I think the mega p5 wont like it but the rest would.

Wife is really pissed that her favorite player, whom she watched for a few years has is gone to ole miss. Now she is taking me on a long vacation during the season.

You cannot ignore the fact that college is primarily where young people go to get an education. That is also true for most college athletes. Kids get to choose where they go to school. You cannot prohibit a female basketball from enrolling and playing at South Carolina simply because USCe has won a bunch of championships.

 

[CEB]

You cannot ignore the fact that college is primarily where young people go to get an education. That is also true for most college athletes. Kids get to choose where they go to school. You cannot prohibit a female basketball from enrolling and playing at South Carolina simply because USCe has won a bunch of championships.

I think you’re both kinda right... big time programs in the big revenue sports have been trending away from “student” part of student athlete for a while. First it was a couple of kids... then it was a handful of kids... now it’s several kids and increasing. The schooling aspect is an afterthought for a lot of the big revenue sports athletes.
That’s not true across the board, however and it’s not even true across entire sports. I don’t see how you can level the field for 60, let alone elevate 100+ football programs with the top 20-30.
As crazy as it sounded a few years ago, I feel like the answer will almost certainly become separating / restructuring D1 into distinct divisions with separate rules and governing bodies. While I kind of believe something like this will happen, I don’t think the conference realignment we’re seeing is going to be part of the demarcation.

 

[davesbrain]

You cannot ignore the fact that college is primarily where young people go to get an education. That is also true for most college athletes. Kids get to choose where they go to school. You cannot prohibit a female basketball from enrolling and playing at South Carolina simply because USCe has won a bunch of championships.

Good point, the path forward may be NIL caps, like salary caps, now someone who goes to their dream school WITHOUT NIL but just a scholarship, is like today's walk ons...

 

[iceeater1969]

You cannot ignore the fact that college is primarily where young people go to get an education. That is also true for most college athletes. Kids get to choose where they go to school. You cannot prohibit a female basketball from enrolling and playing at South Carolina simply because USCe has won a bunch of championships.

Changed the subject.

The ncaa governs the Total number of scholarships in football.
School does something bad and they reduce number of scholarships in the future.

Simply declare school going to too many cfp as "bad" for football penalty and reduce future scholy level.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Disney does not reveal much about ESPN in their financial statements, but the number of cable subscribers is rapidly decreasing. I think that is true overall, but YouTube TV is increasing. ESPN is trying to make up for that loss with higher monthly affiliate fees. There is a ceiling on that and we may be seeing it now with increased cord cutting. At the same time, ESPN+ is gaining subscribers, so the streaming model make take hold. But, paying for unbundled streaming content will be very expensive. An example, CBS might charge more for streaming March Madness by forcing you subscribe to more than just the tournament. And the CFP will almost certainly be outside any conference streaming subscription. Then there is the NFL. Will the NFL let you subscribe to single games or single teams or for the entire season?

As @RonJohn pointed out above, no one knows for certain what the universe for sports TV will be in ten years. But, I am almost certain it will not be very similar to our current status quo.

Makes you wonder if news and sports will one day only be for the wealthy. Or do we see a revival of print journalism and AM radio the way some of us had to get our information when we were kids?

 

[stinger 1957]

Makes you wonder if news and sports will one day only be for the wealthy. Or do we see a revival of print journalism and AM radio the way some of us had to get our information when we were kids?

I've wondered if the "at the game stadium experience/new stadiums" might be for the people who have money, smaller stadiums that offer a very different experience than todays experience. May already be happening in small way some where, not sure, Baylor University stadium in Waco supposedly is different in some way I've heard, not sure how it is different.

 

[cpf2001]

Even at $30/month some sort of direct to consumer FutureESPN isn't in "only for the wealthy" territory but I definitely think "going to the games" will continue to shift that way.

Sports will have to compete with new stuff like video game streaming, but there's currently a weird economic reversal there: it's cheaper to *watch* gaming/esports streams on Twitch and stuff, even at a very high level as far as I can tell, but to *play* at a high level can get very expensive - fancy high-refresh-rate monitors, video cards, even keyboards, etc.

You already see this in sports some. Baseball and hockey have considerably higher equipment/facility costs than soccer and basketball and even pick-up football, and so the best players in those sports tend to come from better-off families. So paying to watch the sports that are cheaper to play will still, I think, make a lot of sense for a lot of poorer people.

 

[iceeater1969]

I've wondered if the "at the game stadium experience/new stadiums" might be for the people who have money, smaller stadiums that offer a very different experience than todays experience. May already be happening in small way some where, not sure, Baylor University stadium in Waco supposedly is different in some way I've heard, not sure how it is different.

Well its really a cozy stadium that Drayton Mclane did most of up front funding. His family ran food store in small town - CAMERON back in 1800's. Eventually he sold it to Walmat who was his biggest customer. He got $$ of walmart stock which was bought by berkshire hathaway. His a businessman that loved baylor. He got booster and the teachers to all buy in w commiments on tickets. Oh , he had owned the astros till 2011. The stadium is right on river just south of freeway from dallas to austin. It has a walking bridge to campus and lots of tailgate areas from the run down area that was bought - more to be added later. It looks like a mini roman colisium with overhang shade and great beeeze ways all around. 245million. The students party before game then enter as a Giant Baylor Run accross field to get into seats along the east sideline behind the opponents. All the sests have good views.

Just north of the freway they are building a very small basketball stadium - with pricey seat reaservation fees like pro stadiums.

Son and wife met at baylor. They now teach there and have 3 kids. Pretty idyllic set up except for freeway.


I like the gt campus and Atlanta way more.

 

[Southern psu fan]

F that, let's hope the the B10 takes us.

That would be a dream come true for me. Penn State and Ga Tech football are my 2 favorite sports. I’m Ga Tech first in basketball and baseball but I have to admit nothing comes before Penn State football and I also love the Penn State wrestling program. Ga Tech would be a good fit for the BIG 10

 

[Northeast Stinger]

That would be a dream come true for me. Penn State and Ga Tech football are my 2 favorite sports. I’m Ga Tech first in basketball and baseball but I have to admit nothing comes before Penn State football and I also love the Penn State wrestling program. Ga Tech would be a good fit for the BIG 10

I am going to commit blasphemy in saying this but B1G stadium atmosphere feels more like college to me now, and the way the SEC used to feel. Much of the SEC now feels like a semi-pro atmosphere with a lot of Madison Avenue slick production thrown in. I too think Tech would be a better fit in the B1G.

People can come at me on this if they want. I don’t care.

 

[orientalnc]

I am going to commit blasphemy in saying this but B1G stadium atmosphere feels more like college to me now, and the way the SEC used to feel. Much of the SEC now feels like a semi-pro atmosphere with a lot of Madison Avenue slick production thrown in. I too think Tech would be a better fit in the B1G.

People can come at me on this if they want. I don’t care.

Since they are close to me, I go to a couple of E Carolina games each year. The atmosphere is more like an NFL game than a college game. Even when the opponent is someone like SMU. I get tired of all the promotions and slick ads on the jumbo board. And the $10 hot dogs.