stinger 1957
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Six new schools given AAU designations including U Miami FL, Arizona State U, U South FL, ND
Conference Realignment
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RonJohn
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Makes it even easier to add ND, even though it has been hinted that ND is the one school they would take without it. It also pretty much kills FSUs chances of getting in the Big10 if the ACC falls apart soon. (Which isn't going to happen)
stinger 1957
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I saw something in last day or two that said Clemson was considering going independent, not sure what they see that says going independent is the way out of the trap that is the ACC.
This is just me but I still think the ACC is over in 5 years or less, not sure how it happens just think half or more of the schools are not going to sit there and die on the ACC vine. They know they cannot compete being 30-40 mil. behind and it seems ESPN has financial problems on top of it all. A falling behind ACC does not help them either. It's still my guess Clemson, FSU, maybe, just maybe VT NC ST. SEC, Miami, GT UNC UVA Big 10, ND independent or Big 10 some of the rest to the Big 12. The remainder I have no guess.
RonJohn
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If Clemson goes independent before the GOR contract expires, then they will make zero from broadcast rights. The ACC will still own the rights to broadcast Clemson games, and Clemson will be contractually obligated to allow access to the broadcast company (ESPN). That would be a huge win for the rest of the conference and media rights payouts would go up by four or five million per school. (except Clemson who would get zero)
iceeater1969
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In theoretical business w no other degrees of freedom .
So the tv folks would sit around and be happy that the acc is less the one great team???
Tv guys can tell the adverstisers they have several great games coming up like boston college verses wake forest or uva and old 3 win per year gt.
Oh, the advertisers pay less byt the tv guys just keep paying 100% of contract ?,
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Oldgoldandwhite
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Clemson needs to ask us about how going independent worked out.
CEB
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No... in the scenario presented, the ACC still own the rights to and ESPN can still broadcast Clemson games, whether they are in the ACC or not. That’s what the grant of rights does. The tv guys pay the same as long as the programming stays the same (and it does).
But... no one is leaving without their media rights and no one is taking their media rights away for several years.
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iceeater1969
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Its Not just about the acc members.
Don't get hung up on clemson or a gsng of 3.
Do we have a copy the tv contract w the acc? Thats the key.
That's where the defintion of pay and programing are defined.
If tv guys are rolling in revenue for acc, you are 100 % correct , they will as "pay the same"
I think the opposite is or will be happening soon.
Due to greed or other competition they may just reduce payments claiming lack of demand for the poor acc "program" product
They "will claim" that the
programing contracted for does not meet the contract- breach. They will point to the lack of investment (disparity of donations, ticket sales, management involvment ) by ALL ACC TEAMS.
This all will be negotiable
Maybe the tv contract is ironclad as u think w no wiggle room for tv guys.
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Techster
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I've read that the ACC media deal is more profitable for ESPN than the SEC deal. SEC gets more eyeballs, but due to what it costs ESPN to carry the rights for the SEC and SEC network, ACC actually turns a better profit for ESPN.
ACC gave ESPN a sweetheart deal that's locked in for a LONG time. They have zero motivation to modify or cancel the ACC deal as it's one of their most profitable assets.
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There's a lot of talk on the Swarm about the ESPN contract. I cannot find the actual contract online, but a summary is linked below. Missing from the summary is any description of the ACC in that contract. Legally, according to my UNC neighbor (an attorney in New Bern), the ACC exists as a separate entity from any member school. So, the "Atlantic Coast Conference" is not a unique collection of member schools. It exists with whichever schools are members. So, if ND joins the conference, the ESPN contract remains intact. If FSU and Clemson leave, the contract remains.
To me, this means ND football is not joining the ACC prior to 2036 and likely never. They get $10 million a year from the ACC for their partial membership and $26 million from NBC through the 2024 season. They are currently negotiating with NBC and Fox and, perhaps, others for the years beyond 2024. I read they are seeking $75 million per year. Apparently, NBC is talking about, but has but offered, $60 million per year. The SEC and B1G teams are getting (or will get) about $90 million. ND wants to be in that range. So, whatever they can negotiate gets bumped by $10 million in ACC money. So, their ask at $75 million fits that model.
So, forget ND. And forget, the ACC contract with ESPN imploding if 2 or 3 teams leave.
iceeater1969
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To get a deal w more than a low ball we had to agree to a long term deal. It was willing seller willing buyers. Espn bet that prices for advertising would go up so they were good w the long term deal.
"Eyeballs " as a $ compare with what are the actual numbers acc and sec for a paid $ l minute of advertising.
Premium ticket price not attendance is a proxy for advertising demand.
Just went to sold out army navy game = bucket list =$$$$$ for two crummy teams.
One game ticket Uga verses Ala in 2019 was same $ as my season tickets at midfield.
I think revenues are down at espn and they told ACC at ladt meeting = up its game = Angel and Batt are on it.
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I fully expect the ACC to be around in 2036. It will likely have a different set of members - though I believe more than 2/3 of the current members will still be members in 2036.
The piece so many fans seem to miss is that schools have to have somewhere to go in order to leave. They can ***** and moan all they want about wanting more money, but another conference has to be willing to pay them more money. My belief is that there are few schools left that bring enough value that the SEC or B1G would want to add them to their conference. They are not going to add a program that isn't additive overall to the bottom line for their members.
In many ways it reminds me of the transfer portal. Alot more players go into that portal than come out of it. Once you get in, many players find out their worth isn't what they thought. (Keep in mind in the 2021 Portal only 54% of players who went in found a new home).
www.collegefootballpoll.com
There is little incentive for programs to move between the little 3 (ACC, B12, PAC) - though B12 and ACC could likely pick off PAC schools at this time given their issues trying to get a TV contract right now, if the financials made sense for those 2 conferences. But moving between those 3 conferences is not going to increase your TV take in any significant way from what it is right now.
Only moving from the little 3 to the Big 2 makes financial sense, but how many programs in the little 3 have a legitimate shot of getting an offer from the Big 2. We might be down to 4-6 total for that.
The piece so many fans seem to miss is that schools have to have somewhere to go in order to leave. They can ***** and moan all they want about wanting more money, but another conference has to be willing to pay them more money. My belief is that there are few schools left that bring enough value that the SEC or B1G would want to add them to their conference. They are not going to add a program that isn't additive overall to the bottom line for their members.
In many ways it reminds me of the transfer portal. Alot more players go into that portal than come out of it. Once you get in, many players find out their worth isn't what they thought. (Keep in mind in the 2021 Portal only 54% of players who went in found a new home).
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There is little incentive for programs to move between the little 3 (ACC, B12, PAC) - though B12 and ACC could likely pick off PAC schools at this time given their issues trying to get a TV contract right now, if the financials made sense for those 2 conferences. But moving between those 3 conferences is not going to increase your TV take in any significant way from what it is right now.
Only moving from the little 3 to the Big 2 makes financial sense, but how many programs in the little 3 have a legitimate shot of getting an offer from the Big 2. We might be down to 4-6 total for that.
bobongo
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Here's a dumb question I've asked here before but got no response: Since the contract runs 13 more years, and since, as we've been told, ESPN is losing subscribers/viewers every year, won't the contract be comparatively more advantageous for the ACC and less so for ESPN with each passing year? What am I missing?
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There was an interesting bit online this morning that the Big-12 is talking to Gonzaga about joining the conference. My first thought was, "Gonzaga has a football team?" My next thought is that the Big-12 has been rebuffed by the Four Corners schools or they would not be talking to Gonzaga about anything other than a preseason basketball game.
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From what I can see, ESPN is the #4 TV station. Demographics are challenging for the traditional sports—NFL, NCAA football and basketball, and baseball—but ESPN has a much healthier trend line than CBS or NBC. Think about the demographics for NCIS, for example
ESPNs issue is that they’ve been paying big bucks, and investors want a better return on investment
For those who don’t know—Gonzaga does not have a football team nor does it have plans to add the sport
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cpf2001
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If ESPN is in financial to
The SEC deal only ends a couple years before the ACC deal so assuming ESPN stays solvent, even if the next SEC deal came in below the ACC deal due to shrinking cable subscriber bases then there’s already a lot of potential damage to ACC programs by being so far behind for so long.
For any ESPN problems to benefit the ACC relative to the SEC and B1G would require threading a very fine needle of something like “ESPN/FOX couldn’t figure out how to survive the decline in traditional cable subscribers and jettisoned all the contracts in bankruptcy” and “a new or restructured entity figured out how to make money direct to consumer for college football enough to give everyone still enough millions to stay intact but with a smaller spread between conferences”
Comparatively more advantageous to the ACC than ESPN, yes, but not comparatively more advantage to the ACC than the SEC.
The SEC deal only ends a couple years before the ACC deal so assuming ESPN stays solvent, even if the next SEC deal came in below the ACC deal due to shrinking cable subscriber bases then there’s already a lot of potential damage to ACC programs by being so far behind for so long.
For any ESPN problems to benefit the ACC relative to the SEC and B1G would require threading a very fine needle of something like “ESPN/FOX couldn’t figure out how to survive the decline in traditional cable subscribers and jettisoned all the contracts in bankruptcy” and “a new or restructured entity figured out how to make money direct to consumer for college football enough to give everyone still enough millions to stay intact but with a smaller spread between conferences”
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This ^^
ESPN has no real sense to renegotiate as we currently stand. Bring in ND, then...
CEB
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You’re right in the sense that I (and since this site collectively can’t find it) and potentially no one outside of ACC / ESPN knows the particulars of the programming requirements.
What we do know is that the grant of rights gives the ACC the right to media of the 15 teams party to the agreement. As long as the ACC is conveying the media rights of those 15 schools under the agreement, I don’t see how ESPN could argue it’s a breach.
If you’re saying that ACC football sucks and there is a “quality” component to the agreement that would give ESPN a kick out because collectively the 15 member schools have gotten so bad as to be unwatchable, I can’t comment. It’s possible, but pure conjecture as far as I know.