Conference Realignment

[Randy Carson]

I used to say I'd like $1M and a harem, but inflation and age are crushing my dream.

Because you're running out of time to spend the million?

 

[Techwood Relict]

Because you're running out of time to spend the million?

I'm living a slow happy life.....

 

[GTrob21]

Ok so now that we are a little bit further down the road, here is where I am at and have come to accept. Full disclosure, I could be completely wrong. However...

I think a lot of the message boards are completely missing the mark. Many of them are talking about how the B12 will invite PAC12 and ACC members, and these schools will just jump. Which I find laughable. I think the way of college football realignment will settle on 2 major conferences and 3 regional ones.

Here is why, there are only 3 conferences with linear networks, capable of producing live events for T.V. (SEC, B1G and ACC). That is a distinct advantage not only in $$$ but also in exposure and branding. Despite what you hear on the message boards, or even some of the FSU and Clemson people, the ACC is firmly 3rd in revenue and that will only widen during our current deal.

Another aspect I see not being discussed is the one area in the United States that produces the highest rate of college athletes and is college football obsessed. And this region has some of the highest growth states in the US. (hint, it's where we live). If you are in business, and you have a product, and there is an area where your product is already used and loved, and this area produces the raw materials that you need, in better quality and quantity, and you don't have a presence there, you better get in that market quick. Hell this is like Business 101, and the B1G is not dumb, they know that for their business to survive and thrive, they need these markets. They need North Carolina, Georgia and Florida to be specific. Those are the states that are growing, and Georgia and Florida, are two of the top-producing college talents in the US. The gap in revenue between B1G and SEC and the ACC is primarily made up of the number of eyeballs that watch their games, and the draw of their big brands.

The last aspect to consider is AAU affiliation. It matters to the B1G. They want to be associated with high-level research institutions.

The path of expansion is very simple. The B1G is coming East and South. I think they go to Oregon and Washington because those are brands, that already have AAU accreditation, have good ratings, and are travel partners for USC and UCLA, but the end game is that the B1G will want a presence in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and I suspect Virginia.

I think in the End, the B1G I think will get the following schools to join.

1) Washington (AAU, flagship school)
2) Oregon (AAU, big football brand and flagship school)
3) UVA (AAU, flagship school of Virginia)
4) UNC (AAU, flagship school of North Carolina, major basketball brand, and potential in football)
5) Duke (AAU, and major basketball brand)
6) Georgia Tech ( AAU, no real success or brand strength, but they open the market in GA)
7) FSU (No AAU...yet but I predict FSU will get AAU, and they will go to the B1G, major football brand and will open the state of Florida for the B1G network)

I think that is where they stop.

I think the SEC will also move in the same direction, and take Clemson (Brand and ratings), Virginia Tech, NC State and maybe Kansas. But i'm not convinced anybody else brings value to their model.

I think after that you will have the Big 2 and then regional college football conferences. The idea of the giant conference spanning from coast to coast made up of the best of the rest, I don't think is financially feasible.

So come mid-2030s, we will have two major conferences and 3 smaller regional conferences. I think the ACC network will probably be dissolved at that time, much like the Longhorn network was because after all these moves it just won't be that profitable.

All future moves will follow the base motives of the conferences. For the SEC that is to maximize the profit of its Brand. For the B1G, that is maximizing the profit of its brand and AAU accreditation.

 

[rfjeff9]

Ok so now that we are a little bit further down the road, here is where I am at and have come to accept. Full disclosure, I could be completely wrong. However...

I think a lot of the message boards are completely missing the mark. Many of them are talking about how the B12 will invite PAC12 and ACC members, and these schools will just jump. Which I find laughable. I think the way of college football realignment will settle on 2 major conferences and 3 regional ones.

Here is why, there are only 3 conferences with linear networks, capable of producing live events for T.V. (SEC, B1G and ACC). That is a distinct advantage not only in $$$ but also in exposure and branding. Despite what you hear on the message boards, or even some of the FSU and Clemson people, the ACC is firmly 3rd in revenue and that will only widen during our current deal.

Another aspect I see not being discussed is the one area in the United States that produces the highest rate of college athletes and is college football obsessed. And this region has some of the highest growth states in the US. (hint, it's where we live). If you are in business, and you have a product, and there is an area where your product is already used and loved, and this area produces the raw materials that you need, in better quality and quantity, and you don't have a presence there, you better get in that market quick. Hell this is like Business 101, and the B1G is not dumb, they know that for their business to survive and thrive, they need these markets. They need North Carolina, Georgia and Florida to be specific. Those are the states that are growing, and Georgia and Florida, are two of the top-producing college talents in the US. The gap in revenue between B1G and SEC and the ACC is primarily made up of the number of eyeballs that watch their games, and the draw of their big brands.

The last aspect to consider is AAU affiliation. It matters to the B1G. They want to be associated with high-level research institutions.

The path of expansion is very simple. The B1G is coming East and South. I think they go to Oregon and Washington because those are brands, that already have AAU accreditation, have good ratings, and are travel partners for USC and UCLA, but the end game is that the B1G will want a presence in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and I suspect Virginia.

I think in the End, the B1G I think will get the following schools to join.

1) Washington (AAU, flagship school)
2) Oregon (AAU, big football brand and flagship school)
3) UVA (AAU, flagship school of Virginia)
4) UNC (AAU, flagship school of North Carolina, major basketball brand, and potential in football)
5) Duke (AAU, and major basketball brand)
6) Georgia Tech ( AAU, no real success or brand strength, but they open the market in GA)
7) FSU (No AAU...yet but I predict FSU will get AAU, and they will go to the B1G, major football brand and will open the state of Florida for the B1G network)

I think that is where they stop.

I think the SEC will also move in the same direction, and take Clemson (Brand and ratings), Virginia Tech, NC State and maybe Kansas. But i'm not convinced anybody else brings value to their model.

I think after that you will have the Big 2 and then regional college football conferences. The idea of the giant conference spanning from coast to coast made up of the best of the rest, I don't think is financially feasible.

So come mid-2030s, we will have two major conferences and 3 smaller regional conferences. I think the ACC network will probably be dissolved at that time, much like the Longhorn network was because after all these moves it just won't be that profitable.

All future moves will follow the base motives of the conferences. For the SEC that is to maximize the profit of its Brand. For the B1G, that is maximizing the profit of its brand and AAU accreditation.

 

[TooTall]

"I'm trying." replied the ACC.

 

[iceeater1969]

Ok so now that we are a little bit further down the road, here is where I am at and have come to accept. Full disclosure, I could be completely wrong. However...

I think a lot of the message boards are completely missing the mark. Many of them are talking about how the B12 will invite PAC12 and ACC members, and these schools will just jump. Which I find laughable. I think the way of college football realignment will settle on 2 major conferences and 3 regional ones.

Here is why, there are only 3 conferences with linear networks, capable of producing live events for T.V. (SEC, B1G and ACC). That is a distinct advantage not only in $$$ but also in exposure and branding. Despite what you hear on the message boards, or even some of the FSU and Clemson people, the ACC is firmly 3rd in revenue and that will only widen during our current deal.

Another aspect I see not being discussed is the one area in the United States that produces the highest rate of college athletes and is college football obsessed. And this region has some of the highest growth states in the US. (hint, it's where we live). If you are in business, and you have a product, and there is an area where your product is already used and loved, and this area produces the raw materials that you need, in better quality and quantity, and you don't have a presence there, you better get in that market quick. Hell this is like Business 101, and the B1G is not dumb, they know that for their business to survive and thrive, they need these markets. They need North Carolina, Georgia and Florida to be specific. Those are the states that are growing, and Georgia and Florida, are two of the top-producing college talents in the US. The gap in revenue between B1G and SEC and the ACC is primarily made up of the number of eyeballs that watch their games, and the draw of their big brands.

The last aspect to consider is AAU affiliation. It matters to the B1G. They want to be associated with high-level research institutions.

The path of expansion is very simple. The B1G is coming East and South. I think they go to Oregon and Washington because those are brands, that already have AAU accreditation, have good ratings, and are travel partners for USC and UCLA, but the end game is that the B1G will want a presence in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and I suspect Virginia.

I think in the End, the B1G I think will get the following schools to join.

1) Washington (AAU, flagship school)
2) Oregon (AAU, big football brand and flagship school)
3) UVA (AAU, flagship school of Virginia)
4) UNC (AAU, flagship school of North Carolina, major basketball brand, and potential in football)
5) Duke (AAU, and major basketball brand)
6) Georgia Tech ( AAU, no real success or brand strength, but they open the market in GA)
7) FSU (No AAU...yet but I predict FSU will get AAU, and they will go to the B1G, major football brand and will open the state of Florida for the B1G network)

I think that is where they stop.

I think the SEC will also move in the same direction, and take Clemson (Brand and ratings), Virginia Tech, NC State and maybe Kansas. But i'm not convinced anybody else brings value to their model.

I think after that you will have the Big 2 and then regional college football conferences. The idea of the giant conference spanning from coast to coast made up of the best of the rest, I don't think is financially feasible.

So come mid-2030s, we will have two major conferences and 3 smaller regional conferences. I think the ACC network will probably be dissolved at that time, much like the Longhorn network was because after all these moves it just won't be that profitable.

All future moves will follow the base motives of the conferences. For the SEC that is to maximize the profit of its Brand. For the B1G, that is maximizing the profit of its brand and AAU accreditation.

Like your logic.
B10 must get foothold in Ga as source of top players and big media.
Dont like your time line of a decade. Imo, when any part of the dominoes start to fall the reorder will happen slowly, slowly than super fast. Looking forward, i see new technologies ( that bud light commercial made by the chat AI ) will be light years better. The social media platforms will be re inventing themselves (Meta, Elon / Twitter). Legsl Gambling, Pro football farm teams, streaming services are going to be disrupters.

I love the new Gt prez as he knows that long term gt needs a competitive football program. He will make a deal.

 

[stinger 1957]

Ok so now that we are a little bit further down the road, here is where I am at and have come to accept. Full disclosure, I could be completely wrong. However...

I think a lot of the message boards are completely missing the mark. Many of them are talking about how the B12 will invite PAC12 and ACC members, and these schools will just jump. Which I find laughable. I think the way of college football realignment will settle on 2 major conferences and 3 regional ones.

Here is why, there are only 3 conferences with linear networks, capable of producing live events for T.V. (SEC, B1G and ACC). That is a distinct advantage not only in $$$ but also in exposure and branding. Despite what you hear on the message boards, or even some of the FSU and Clemson people, the ACC is firmly 3rd in revenue and that will only widen during our current deal.

Another aspect I see not being discussed is the one area in the United States that produces the highest rate of college athletes and is college football obsessed. And this region has some of the highest growth states in the US. (hint, it's where we live). If you are in business, and you have a product, and there is an area where your product is already used and loved, and this area produces the raw materials that you need, in better quality and quantity, and you don't have a presence there, you better get in that market quick. Hell this is like Business 101, and the B1G is not dumb, they know that for their business to survive and thrive, they need these markets. They need North Carolina, Georgia and Florida to be specific. Those are the states that are growing, and Georgia and Florida, are two of the top-producing college talents in the US. The gap in revenue between B1G and SEC and the ACC is primarily made up of the number of eyeballs that watch their games, and the draw of their big brands.

The last aspect to consider is AAU affiliation. It matters to the B1G. They want to be associated with high-level research institutions.

The path of expansion is very simple. The B1G is coming East and South. I think they go to Oregon and Washington because those are brands, that already have AAU accreditation, have good ratings, and are travel partners for USC and UCLA, but the end game is that the B1G will want a presence in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and I suspect Virginia.

I think in the End, the B1G I think will get the following schools to join.

1) Washington (AAU, flagship school)
2) Oregon (AAU, big football brand and flagship school)
3) UVA (AAU, flagship school of Virginia)
4) UNC (AAU, flagship school of North Carolina, major basketball brand, and potential in football)
5) Duke (AAU, and major basketball brand)
6) Georgia Tech ( AAU, no real success or brand strength, but they open the market in GA)
7) FSU (No AAU...yet but I predict FSU will get AAU, and they will go to the B1G, major football brand and will open the state of Florida for the B1G network)

I think that is where they stop.

I think the SEC will also move in the same direction, and take Clemson (Brand and ratings), Virginia Tech, NC State and maybe Kansas. But i'm not convinced anybody else brings value to their model.

I think after that you will have the Big 2 and then regional college football conferences. The idea of the giant conference spanning from coast to coast made up of the best of the rest, I don't think is financially feasible.

So come mid-2030s, we will have two major conferences and 3 smaller regional conferences. I think the ACC network will probably be dissolved at that time, much like the Longhorn network was because after all these moves it just won't be that profitable.

All future moves will follow the base motives of the conferences. For the SEC that is to maximize the profit of its Brand. For the B1G, that is maximizing the profit of its brand and AAU accreditation.

The only place I might disagree with you is FL. Think the Big wants south FL and will take Miami who is supposedly close to an AAU membership. Do they also see that FSU becomes AAU and take them, I don't know but think the media mkts of Tampa, St. Pete, Orlando, West Palm, Ft Lauderdale Miami are very desirable and maybe more so to the Big than others because there are tons and tons of upper midwestern fans living in that area. Supposedly the U has commitments to build an on campus stadium. Notice I said the Big "see that FSU becomes an AAU member". IMO the AAU is a very political group. Seems many of the member schools became so because of their medical schools and research in the area of health. Seems GT became a member after working cooperative research with Emory medical.
Not sure if FSU has a medical school or not. Maybe UF becomes a member of Big 10 eventually, who knows. I think it will not be too long before we know how much of this plays out, just heard people who are frontline say serious stuff going on behind the scenes.
Don't really know this, but I'm sensing the ACC schools are collectively dealing with it quietly behind the scenes, but I could be all wrong about that and it could be people who don't make the decisions doing it all.
I do think this will not take many years this time around, I'm guessing 3 or less that we know what is going to happen, although not yet happened. All IMO and I've been wrong before!

 

[orientalnc]

Ok so now that we are a little bit further down the road, here is where I am at and have come to accept. Full disclosure, I could be completely wrong. However...

I think a lot of the message boards are completely missing the mark. Many of them are talking about how the B12 will invite PAC12 and ACC members, and these schools will just jump. Which I find laughable. I think the way of college football realignment will settle on 2 major conferences and 3 regional ones.

Here is why, there are only 3 conferences with linear networks, capable of producing live events for T.V. (SEC, B1G and ACC). That is a distinct advantage not only in $$$ but also in exposure and branding. Despite what you hear on the message boards, or even some of the FSU and Clemson people, the ACC is firmly 3rd in revenue and that will only widen during our current deal.

Another aspect I see not being discussed is the one area in the United States that produces the highest rate of college athletes and is college football obsessed. And this region has some of the highest growth states in the US. (hint, it's where we live). If you are in business, and you have a product, and there is an area where your product is already used and loved, and this area produces the raw materials that you need, in better quality and quantity, and you don't have a presence there, you better get in that market quick. Hell this is like Business 101, and the B1G is not dumb, they know that for their business to survive and thrive, they need these markets. They need North Carolina, Georgia and Florida to be specific. Those are the states that are growing, and Georgia and Florida, are two of the top-producing college talents in the US. The gap in revenue between B1G and SEC and the ACC is primarily made up of the number of eyeballs that watch their games, and the draw of their big brands.

The last aspect to consider is AAU affiliation. It matters to the B1G. They want to be associated with high-level research institutions.

The path of expansion is very simple. The B1G is coming East and South. I think they go to Oregon and Washington because those are brands, that already have AAU accreditation, have good ratings, and are travel partners for USC and UCLA, but the end game is that the B1G will want a presence in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and I suspect Virginia.

I think in the End, the B1G I think will get the following schools to join.

1) Washington (AAU, flagship school)
2) Oregon (AAU, big football brand and flagship school)
3) UVA (AAU, flagship school of Virginia)
4) UNC (AAU, flagship school of North Carolina, major basketball brand, and potential in football)
5) Duke (AAU, and major basketball brand)
6) Georgia Tech ( AAU, no real success or brand strength, but they open the market in GA)
7) FSU (No AAU...yet but I predict FSU will get AAU, and they will go to the B1G, major football brand and will open the state of Florida for the B1G network)

I think that is where they stop.

I think the SEC will also move in the same direction, and take Clemson (Brand and ratings), Virginia Tech, NC State and maybe Kansas. But i'm not convinced anybody else brings value to their model.

I think after that you will have the Big 2 and then regional college football conferences. The idea of the giant conference spanning from coast to coast made up of the best of the rest, I don't think is financially feasible.

So come mid-2030s, we will have two major conferences and 3 smaller regional conferences. I think the ACC network will probably be dissolved at that time, much like the Longhorn network was because after all these moves it just won't be that profitable.

All future moves will follow the base motives of the conferences. For the SEC that is to maximize the profit of its Brand. For the B1G, that is maximizing the profit of its brand and AAU accreditation.

I do not see FSU as attractive to the B1G. Miami? Maybe.

My concern about the ATL market if I am in the B1G HQ is whether having GT will have any impact on the local market in ATL. Will sports fans in Georgia watch Ohio State play Michigan if uGA is playing Auburn at the same time? Or will GT versus anyone in the B1G pull eyes away from an SEC game? Perhaps the B1G gets eyes for the big games when uGA is playing Vandy or Mississippi State. Remember, the SEC has games in every time slot on Saturday. Also, if your B1G realignment happens, FSU and Clemson are nose down toward the SEC, which further exacerbates the "GT brings the ATL market" meme.

When all is said and done, will advertisers like ATL better as a B1G product or as an SEC product? It seems like a no brainer to me, but those decisions are made looking 20 years ahead. Nothing is likely to change overnight.

 

[stech81]

When all is said and done, will advertisers like ATL better as a B1G product or as an SEC product? It seems like a no brainer to me, but those decisions are made looking 20 years ahead. Nothing is likely to change overnight.

guess you were right nights over and nothing happened. Problem is if it takes 20 years at my age I'm not sure I'll know who I am or care.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Ok so now that we are a little bit further down the road, here is where I am at and have come to accept. Full disclosure, I could be completely wrong. However...

I think a lot of the message boards are completely missing the mark. Many of them are talking about how the B12 will invite PAC12 and ACC members, and these schools will just jump. Which I find laughable. I think the way of college football realignment will settle on 2 major conferences and 3 regional ones.

Here is why, there are only 3 conferences with linear networks, capable of producing live events for T.V. (SEC, B1G and ACC). That is a distinct advantage not only in $$$ but also in exposure and branding. Despite what you hear on the message boards, or even some of the FSU and Clemson people, the ACC is firmly 3rd in revenue and that will only widen during our current deal.

Another aspect I see not being discussed is the one area in the United States that produces the highest rate of college athletes and is college football obsessed. And this region has some of the highest growth states in the US. (hint, it's where we live). If you are in business, and you have a product, and there is an area where your product is already used and loved, and this area produces the raw materials that you need, in better quality and quantity, and you don't have a presence there, you better get in that market quick. Hell this is like Business 101, and the B1G is not dumb, they know that for their business to survive and thrive, they need these markets. They need North Carolina, Georgia and Florida to be specific. Those are the states that are growing, and Georgia and Florida, are two of the top-producing college talents in the US. The gap in revenue between B1G and SEC and the ACC is primarily made up of the number of eyeballs that watch their games, and the draw of their big brands.

The last aspect to consider is AAU affiliation. It matters to the B1G. They want to be associated with high-level research institutions.

The path of expansion is very simple. The B1G is coming East and South. I think they go to Oregon and Washington because those are brands, that already have AAU accreditation, have good ratings, and are travel partners for USC and UCLA, but the end game is that the B1G will want a presence in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and I suspect Virginia.

I think in the End, the B1G I think will get the following schools to join.

1) Washington (AAU, flagship school)
2) Oregon (AAU, big football brand and flagship school)
3) UVA (AAU, flagship school of Virginia)
4) UNC (AAU, flagship school of North Carolina, major basketball brand, and potential in football)
5) Duke (AAU, and major basketball brand)
6) Georgia Tech ( AAU, no real success or brand strength, but they open the market in GA)
7) FSU (No AAU...yet but I predict FSU will get AAU, and they will go to the B1G, major football brand and will open the state of Florida for the B1G network)

I think that is where they stop.

I think the SEC will also move in the same direction, and take Clemson (Brand and ratings), Virginia Tech, NC State and maybe Kansas. But i'm not convinced anybody else brings value to their model.

I think after that you will have the Big 2 and then regional college football conferences. The idea of the giant conference spanning from coast to coast made up of the best of the rest, I don't think is financially feasible.

So come mid-2030s, we will have two major conferences and 3 smaller regional conferences. I think the ACC network will probably be dissolved at that time, much like the Longhorn network was because after all these moves it just won't be that profitable.

All future moves will follow the base motives of the conferences. For the SEC that is to maximize the profit of its Brand. For the B1G, that is maximizing the profit of its brand and AAU accreditation.

I dont see the BIG wanting to take 2 in NC. They are after eyeballs and Duke sucks at footbal and NC has a chance to be decent. Take one in the state to get the higher $ viewer dollar. No need for 2. Its nice to think Tech is a no brainer with the ATL population density and the high big alumni count

 

[stinger 1957]

If true and I don't know if it is, but why have VT and NC ST joined the four of UNC, FSU, Miami, Clemson in the fight to either change the distribution formula for the $ or dissolve the ACC? I'm guessing the SEC may have let them know they are interested in inviting them to the SEC. The SEC has realized they aren't getting UNC or UVA and they want something in those two states. Yep just speculation on my part but I don't see any other reason not that there can't be another reason I just don't see it. If true that is 6 schools and I believe 7 when you add a silent one in GT. Where does the eighth come from?

 

[UgaBlows]

VT, FSU, Clem and NCST to SEC
GT, UNC, UVA, and UM to BIG

 

[GTrob21]

If true and I don't know if it is, but why have VT and NC ST joined the four of UNC, FSU, Miami, Clemson in the fight to either change the distribution formula for the $ or dissolve the ACC? I'm guessing the SEC may have let them know they are interested in inviting them to the SEC. The SEC has realized they aren't getting UNC or UVA and they want something in those two states. Yep just speculation on my part but I don't see any other reason not that there can't be another reason I just don't see it. If true that is 6 schools and I believe 7 when you add a silent one in GT. Where does the eighth come from?

The 8th school is the B1G's great white whale...Notre Dame... I think ND will never join a conference.

 

[g0lftime]

The 8th school is the B1G's great white whale...Notre Dame... I think ND will never join a conference.

No other conference than the ACC is willing to take all sports except football into a conference. We have had some dumb AD's but Swofford is the dumbest commissioner in history of the league.

 

[bensaysitathome]

The 8th school is the B1G's great white whale...Notre Dame... I think ND will never join a conference.

I think this is true...so long as they have a path the the championship. Eventually, if the big 2 separate formally, they could be persuaded.

 

[stinger 1957]

No other conference than the ACC is willing to take all sports except football into a conference. We have had some dumb AD's but Swofford is the dumbest commissioner in history of the league.

I don't disagree with you about Swafford, always thought he was nothing more than a puppet controlled by the tobacco road mafia.

 

[Root4GT]

No other conference than the ACC is willing to take all sports except football into a conference. We have had some dumb AD's but Swofford is the dumbest commissioner in history of the league.

Interesting take. I see it as getting ND for 5 games a year. That in and of itself makes the ACC more valuable for TV deals.

Playing ND is a very good OOC opponent to play. Home games against ND draw well and trips to ND are great.

What’s not to like?

 

[stinger 1957]

I think this is true...so long as they have a path the the championship. Eventually, if the big 2 separate formally, they could be persuaded.

Who are the big 2?

 

[stinger 1957]

I'm wondering if after expansion the Big plays 10 conference games at some point. At that point ND might find it harder to schedule big name opponents like SC and Stanford. We afforded ND games with their 5 ACC games each year. Being independent for them appears to get harder and harder. Seems the Big played 10 conference games when they were an eleven school conference. I'm guessing those two open games would go to easier opponents for most Big members. With GT, one easier and UGA.

 

[Richard7125]

VT, FSU, Clem and NCST to SEC
GT, UNC, UVA, and UM to BIG

Do you really think VT or NCState would add incremental value to the SEC? Why do you think 8 teams from the ACC would go to SEC and Big10? I think you’re looking at this the wrong way. The SEC and Big10 don’t care who gets left out. They only care about what adds incremental value to their conferences.