Conference Realignment

[slugboy]

Even playing all away games seems doubtful as a way to bypass the GOR. I don't know if the ESPN contract would allow that, but even if it does: FSU's revenue is $161 million. $41 million from media, $19 million from tickets, and $42 million from donors. They won't add a media market if they don't own the broadcast rights. They won't sell tickets if all of the games are away. Would donors continue to supply $42 million if there are no sporting events that they have good access to? Trying to exit the ACC and play all away games puts $103 million of their $161 million revenue at risk. That just seems far too risky to me.

EDIT: Like I said previously, Texas could actually afford to lose $80 million to go to the SEC two years before the Big12 GOR expired. They chose not to. ACC teams would be risking 12 years and no ACC team has as much revenue nor as much cash on hand as Texas.

I’d think the SEC teams would be thrilled to have FSU as an extra home game every year, and not share the gate revenue with them. But I also think “all away or neutral site games” is a doubtful way to shirk the GOR commitment, and I don’t think a judge would buy it.

Someone might pull something off, but if it were a lead-pipe cinch then someone would have tried it.

 

[RonJohn]

I’d think the SEC teams would be thrilled to have FSU as an extra home game every year, and not share the gate revenue with them. But I also think “all away or neutral site games” is a doubtful way to shirk the GOR commitment, and I don’t think a judge would buy it.

Someone might pull something off, but if it were a lead-pipe cinch then someone would have tried it.

It is not possible to say whether that would work without being able to read the text of the contract to know what is "subject to the ESPN Agreement".

I agree that if it were that simple someone would have already tried it. I think UNC would already be in the Big10. Maybe Virginia also. I don't think Clemson nor FSU would be able to get in the Big10. The media money is still driven by location, so I think they would have a hard time getting into the SEC until the media becomes less dependent on TV markets.

 

[TooTall]

If half the 50% + 1 of current ACC members leave, will the ACC survive? If not, will they become something like the Spirits of St Louis--field nothing and still get checks?
If 5 go SEC, and 5 go BIG10, the other 4 go to the AAC/Big 12, GOR means nothing. Everyone find their landing spot because the ACC killed itself.

 

[forensicbuzz]

If half the 50% + 1 of current ACC members leave, will the ACC survive? If not, will they become something like the Spirits of St Louis--field nothing and still get checks?
If 5 go SEC, and 5 go BIG10, the other 4 go to the AAC/Big 12, GOR means nothing. Everyone find their landing spot because the ACC killed itself.

If the ACC were to disband, the GOR would go away. What I haven't been able to find is what would be necessary to disband the ACC. I do know that the current agreement states that if any school elects to leave the ACC or announces their intent to leave, they immediately forfeit their right to vote.

 

[cpf2001]

Lots of reference in that GoR to "the ESPN Agreement", I wonder what exactly the terms of that agreement are. E.g. are there tricks open to ESPN to initiate a dissolution of that agreement, and would that then eliminate yielding the rights as necessary to "perform the contractual obligations of the conference"?

But I still think then nuclear scenario of "there's just not an ACC anymore" is more likely than some sort of lawyerball around the GOR, unless dissolving the conference is basically impossible in the bylaws. E.g. could Wake Forest, say, force everyone else to stick around even if the vote to stay together was only them?

 

[RonJohn]

If the ACC were to disband, the GOR would go away. What I haven't been able to find is what would be necessary to disband the ACC. I do know that the current agreement states that if any school elects to leave the ACC or announces their intent to leave, they immediately forfeit their right to vote.

I found the 2020-2021 Bylaws here: https://virginiatech.sportswar.com/...15/2022/08/2020-21-ACC-Manual-2020-9-17-2.pdf

In order to amend the Bylaws, you need a Three-Fourths majority of all voting members of the conference:

The Absolute Three-Fourths Matters are as follows: (i) the admission of new Members to the Conference pursuant to Section 1.4.3, (ii) the expulsion, suspension or probation of a Member pursuant to Section 1.4.4, (iii) any amendment of this Constitution, (iv) any amendment of the Bylaws (except amendments to Article 2.5), and (v) waiver of notice or other required process for a Board meeting pursuant to Section 1.5.1.5.2.

I didn't read the entire document, but looking through it I didn't see anything about disbanding the conference. I assume it could be done by ammending the bylaws, which requires a vote from 12 of the 16 teams. Those 12 teams would have to vote to disband the conference before officially announcing that they are leaving the conference. If 9 teams leave, as @TooTall suggests, the remaining 7 teams could just invite more teams, keep the conference open, and keep the GORs from the 9 teams the left until after 2036.

You are correct about withdrawing members not being able to vote (section 1.5.1.3). However, section 1.4.5 states that a member is not a "withdrawing" member until the file an "official" notice with the commissioner and every other member of the conference. They won't lose voting privileges until they officially notify the conference, even if they fully intend to leave.

 

[Richard7125]

It doesn’t matter what the schools in the ACC want. The SEC and the Big10 need to want them. Football is the big revenue driver and there are probably only 2 to 3 teams in the ACC that would increase the incremental revenue of either the SEC or the Big10. There is absolutely no reason for the Big10 or SEC to add anyone else. They don’t care who gets left out.

 

[orientalnc]

I found the 2020-2021 Bylaws here: https://virginiatech.sportswar.com/...15/2022/08/2020-21-ACC-Manual-2020-9-17-2.pdf

In order to amend the Bylaws, you need a Three-Fourths majority of all voting members of the conference:

I didn't read the entire document, but looking through it I didn't see anything about disbanding the conference. I assume it could be done by ammending the bylaws, which requires a vote from 12 of the 16 teams. Those 12 teams would have to vote to disband the conference before officially announcing that they are leaving the conference. If 9 teams leave, as @TooTall suggests, the remaining 7 teams could just invite more teams, keep the conference open, and keep the GORs from the 9 teams the left until after 2036.

You are correct about withdrawing members not being able to vote (section 1.5.1.3). However, section 1.4.5 states that a member is not a "withdrawing" member until the file an "official" notice with the commissioner and every other member of the conference. They won't lose voting privileges until they officially notify the conference, even if they fully intend to leave.

You are relentless. I wanted to out-argue you, but getting the facts is good. Thanks.

 

[orientalnc]

A local attorney offered up an idea to me via text last night. He said the ACC might not be able to hold GT to the GOR in civil court as the State of Georgia could claim sovereign immunity from claims against the state. He said it would not work, but would likely force a monetary resolution. Remember the Maryland exit suit.

As a Carolina fan he said he will miss us. For about ten minutes.

 

[Oakland]

A local attorney offered up an idea to me via text last night. He said the ACC might not be able to hold GT to the GOR in civil court as the State of Georgia could claim sovereign immunity from claims against the state. He said it would not work, but would likely force a monetary resolution. Remember the Maryland exit suit.

As a Carolina fan he said he will miss us. For about ten minutes.

The GTAA probably does not have sovereign immunity because it is not state supported.

 

[orientalnc]

The GTAA probably does not have sovereign immunity because it is not state supported.

I believe the GTAA is wholly owned by the Georgia Institute of Technology which is a part of the state government of Georgia. I believe, and my lawyer friend agrees, the sovereign immunity claim will not likely work. It might create enough legal doubt and expense to force the ACC into a financial settlement that GT could accept. In the end, this is all about the cost of leaving. ESPN probably doesn't want the hassle of trying to televise B1G games at a venue where they are not getting whole hearted support.

 

[iceeater1969]

I believe the GTAA is wholly owned by the Georgia Institute of Technology which is a part of the state government of Georgia. I believe, and my lawyer friend agrees, the sovereign immunity claim will not likely work. It might create enough legal doubt and expense to force the ACC into a financial settlement that GT could accept. In the end, this is all about the cost of leaving. ESPN probably doesn't want the hassle of trying to televise B1G games at a venue where they are not getting whole hearted support.

No one is going anywhere until the TV folks say go. Gt could be sued by tv for failure to provide reasonable resources to football program which is the direct cause of us being bottom feeders. Others in ACC took tv money and increases donatikns and ticket sales while gt took the money but did not increase the donations and ticket sales.

We have tough academics and limited courses, so we should do more not less. Negligent leadership.

Streaming, nil, gambling etc will cause the tv folks to take action.

 

[MWBATL]

i do wonder how all this might change if a solid majority of the schools decide they want out. I understand what the current language states, but things have a way of happening when a solid majority wants change.

 

[Techster]

I do not see FSU as attractive to the B1G. Miami? Maybe.

My concern about the ATL market if I am in the B1G HQ is whether having GT will have any impact on the local market in ATL. Will sports fans in Georgia watch Ohio State play Michigan if uGA is playing Auburn at the same time? Or will GT versus anyone in the B1G pull eyes away from an SEC game? Perhaps the B1G gets eyes for the big games when uGA is playing Vandy or Mississippi State. Remember, the SEC has games in every time slot on Saturday. Also, if your B1G realignment happens, FSU and Clemson are nose down toward the SEC, which further exacerbates the "GT brings the ATL market" meme.

When all is said and done, will advertisers like ATL better as a B1G product or as an SEC product? It seems like a no brainer to me, but those decisions are made looking 20 years ahead. Nothing is likely to change overnight.

FSU has been rumored to the B1G for years now. If you look at what they're doing academically, it gives life to the rumors: B1G told FSU that their market and brand were attractive, but it would be hard to get the B1G Presidents to approve of the move because their academics did not align with the rest of the B1G. Lo and behold, FSU has been working hard to improve their academics and are setting up to apply to become an member of AAU.

‘Our time is now’: President McCullough optimistic about FSU’s future - Florida State University News

Florida State University President Richard McCullough reflected on the remarkable achievements of the past year and said that he is […]

news.fsu.edu

He reaffirmed the university’s overarching goal to achieve recognition as one of the nation’s Top 15 public universities and make progress toward membership in the Association of American Universities (AAU). In September, U.S. News & World Report again ranked FSU No. 19 on its list of the top public universities, and McCullough said he is confident that the university will continue to rise.

There is a concerted effort by FSU the school and FSU the athletics program to join the B1G. There's a reason, of all the ACC teams, FSU is making the biggest stink about ACC revenue shares compared to the B1G and SEC. FSU knows they have an invite waiting, and they also know they're losing tens of millions, and soon be hundreds of millions by being in the ACC.

B1G also knows the state of Florida, along with the Southeast, will be a HUGE growth market. They understandably want a piece of it.

 

[bobongo]

The GOR contract that I read said nothing about 8 teams. It basically said that the current ACC teams would own the rights to every school that leaves. Take away 8 teams and the 7/8 remaining could just live off of the broadcast rights of the 8 that left.

Hypothetical question: What if, say, everybody in the ACC wanted to leave except Wake. Would Wake get all their revenue through 2036? I ask this to suggest there has to be some breaking point.

 

[CEB]

I haven't figured out the multi quote thing and I don't know who I am replying to anyway, so consider all of yourselves replied to.

@RonJohn, Thanks for finding all of that info! Everyone spouting off conjecture is tough to wade through and the facts are appreciated (even thought they are equally tough to wade through). I agree with you that GOR clearly requires unanimous agreement to amend / invalidate. The conspiracy theories I hear are that a simple majority can vote to disband the conference, and since GOR is given to the conference, when the conference is gone, so is the GOR. Again, what you provided seems to indicate anything of that nature requires at least 12 members to accomplish. Even the lowest bar is 2/3, so ten members are needed, not eight.

@orientalnc, The sovereign immunity thing is a pretty creative angle. I agree that it wouldn't likely work. I'm not an attorney, but it would seem that since GT entered into the agreement willingly, the state would pretty much have to say GT is not able or authorized to enter into such an agreement and consequently, the sovereign state invalidates it. Could the state then turn around and keep us from joining the BIG? Crazy path of travel to this one, but I understand that it isn't about having a good case here, just a good enough case to get to the table.

@MWBATL, I agree, at some point enough people want change that change will happen... but until ESPN wants the change, it's going to be really tough to orchestrate.

Which comes again to the question of the day.... why would ESPN have ANY interest at all in allowing the ACC to disband (in whole or in part)? The ACC teams moving to the SEC are already under ESPN contracts. The ACC teams that would move to the BIG, would be "lost" by ESPN. ESPN has a ton of good (cheap) programming locked up for another 13 years. To me, there doesn't seem any gain to an ACC explosion... I am sure I am missing something. HOWEVER, one thing I am 100% convinced of is the fact that the ACC deal is undervalued. I don't know how much, but its undervalued. I continue to hear everyone talk about how valuable the Georgia and Florida markets are to the BIG and how both the BIG and the SEC want to tap the mid-Atlantic markets and how Notre Dame is the crown jewel to the BIG.... The ACC already has ALL of that. If there is that much value, why wouldn't ESPN and the ACC sit down and talk about revenues? I will tell you why... because ESPN has a long freaking contract with what looks like a near bullet-proof GOR backing it.

Honestly, the way I see it, IF (big IF) there are actually 11-12 ACC teams willing to blow it up, and IF those 11-12 teams actually COULD blow it up, I think ESPN would come to the table with more money to PRESERVE the ACC rather than let it fall apart. As we near 2036, that will obviously change, but for at least the next 8-10 years, I don't see the incentive for enough teams (and ESPN) to let it fall apart.

 

[RonJohn]

Hypothetical question: What if, say, everybody in the ACC wanted to leave except Wake. Would Wake get all their revenue through 2036? I ask this to suggest there has to be some breaking point.

Looking at the GOR, Wake would own the broadcast and media rights of all of the teams that left. Wake would not get any revenue that the other teams were able to get from a new conference. However, those schools would not own the media and broadcast rights to their games, so they wouldn't bring new income to the new conference.

If 15 of the 16 teams decided to leave, it would probably happen by disbanding the conference which would likely invalidate some of the requirements of the GOR. ESPN would have to be on board with it, and at least 12 of the teams would have to vote to change the bylaws.

Just my opinion, I don't see anything happening until sometime close to 2036. Maybe a group of 3 super conferences is made. To make a change to the ACC, you would need ESPN and at least 12 members agreeing. The SEC doesn't have room for 12 new members, and ESPN isn't going to vote to strengthen the Big 10. The 2016 ACC GOR was implemented precisely to ensure that ACC teams were not picked away by other conferences. It is doing exactly what all of the ACC members intended for it to do when they signed it.

 

[bobongo]

Looking at the GOR, Wake would own the broadcast and media rights of all of the teams that left. Wake would not get any revenue that the other teams were able to get from a new conference. However, those schools would not own the media and broadcast rights to their games, so they wouldn't bring new income to the new conference.

If 15 of the 16 teams decided to leave, it would probably happen by disbanding the conference which would likely invalidate some of the requirements of the GOR. ESPN would have to be on board with it, and at least 12 of the teams would have to vote to change the bylaws.

Just my opinion, I don't see anything happening until sometime close to 2036. Maybe a group of 3 super conferences is made. To make a change to the ACC, you would need ESPN and at least 12 members agreeing. The SEC doesn't have room for 12 new members, and ESPN isn't going to vote to strengthen the Big 10. The 2016 ACC GOR was implemented precisely to ensure that ACC teams were not picked away by other conferences. It is doing exactly what all of the ACC members intended for it to do when they signed it.

So, 12 schools are required to change the bylaws and get out of the GOR. Yeah, it's hard to imagine 12 schools wanting to do that, which would mean they would all have a guaranteed landing place in a better conference. The ACC isn't going anywhere for a while, and we should be thankful for that. Hopefully, as 2036 approaches and time draws nigh, we'll be better positioned to land in the B1G.

 

[RonJohn]

So, 12 schools are required to change the bylaws and get out of the GOR. Yeah, it's hard to imagine 12 schools wanting to do that, which would mean they would all have a guaranteed landing place in a better conference. The ACC isn't going anywhere for a while, and we should be thankful for that. Hopefully, as 2036 approaches and time draws nigh, we'll be better positioned to land in the B1G.

Every single school is required to change the GOR.

It takes 12 schools to change the conference bylaws. I am not an expert, nor a lawyer, but I think it would take changing the bylaws to disband the conference, and agreement from ESPN to get out of the ESPN broadcast contract to invalidate the GOR without agreement of all 16 members.

 

[Techster]

Every single school is required to change the GOR.

It takes 12 schools to change the conference bylaws. I am not an expert, nor a lawyer, but I think it would take changing the bylaws to disband the conference, and agreement from ESPN to get out of the ESPN broadcast contract to invalidate the GOR without agreement of all 16 members.

That pretty much sinks any chance anyone is getting out of the GOR unless some super creative and smart lawyer figures out a viable loophole.

No way a school like Wake Forest or NC State votes on ending the GOR and killing themselves. Right now the GOR is the only thing holding the ACC together, and protecting the "weaker" schools like Wake and NCSU.