Conference Realignment

GTpdm

GTpdm

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,970
Location
Atlanta GA
yeti92 said:
Yea they include a billion factors that are irrelevant to how good a school is academically.
Click to expand...
As a faculty member at Tech, I can assure you that it is a total nightmare trying to focus on providing real academic value to students, when all the admin-types—who actually buy into USNaWR spin—keep telling us to spend more time on touchy-freely popularity contest activities.
 
orientalnc

orientalnc

Helluva Engineer
Retired Staff
Messages
9,918
Location
Oriental, NC
RamblinRed said:
This is an interesting analysis by Nate Silver on which programs might be most attractive to the B10 at whatever point in the future they decide to expand again.

fivethirtyeight.com

Where Should The Big Ten Expand Next? We Crunched The Numbers.

Which schools should the Big Ten poach next?
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com
Click to expand...
Two thoughts:

Northwestern & Illinois have about the same football market value in Chicago as GT does in Atlanta. Chicago is much more a pro sports town than a college sports town. I believe the SEC wants to own Atlanta and the B1G wants a piece of it. Their media contract does not care how many Northwestern fans live in Chicago. But the market size is of great interest to the media companies who carry the games.

I light Nate Silver, but analytics are not the primary factor in these decisions. How the current members feel about having a school as a conference member is a complicated and, at times, very subjective subject.
 

takethepoints

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,096
This has been a big topic around here so here's an article that actually puts some numbers to it. See:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-should-the-big-ten-expand-next-we-crunched-the-numbers/

Surprise, surprise. Notre Dame is the next obvious target. Problem = the Irish have like zero incentive to join up. After them everything's a reach. Tech, btw, is in the "strategic reaches" category; about where most of us would put us these days.

Update: Just saw that this had been posted in the older thread.

'
 
Techster

Techster

Helluva Engineer
Messages
18,237
RamblinRed said:
This is an interesting analysis by Nate Silver on which programs might be most attractive to the B10 at whatever point in the future they decide to expand again.

fivethirtyeight.com

Where Should The Big Ten Expand Next? We Crunched The Numbers.

Which schools should the Big Ten poach next?
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com
Click to expand...

Signs point to what I've been saying about the West Coast schools: Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon are prime targets. Also wouldn't be surprised to see Arizona and Colorado on that list eventually.

That article makes it VERY depressing if you're a GT fan hoping the B1G extends us the next go around (probably not happening until the GOR runs out). However, there's hope for GT fans...

On another note, I've been tracking the B1G expansion talk on various twitter accounts that have been pretty accurately calling these moves the last 2 years. There was a discussion on what the B1G, and more specifically the conference commissioner Kevin Warren is looking for. This is starting to track:

1. Schools within the NFL footprint (meaning schools in a city with an NFL team).
2. Academic prestige and research $$$ (more on this later).
3. New growth markets for the B1G.
4. B1G alumni footprint.

Among writers following the B1G expansion, they all agree that Warren is looking at expansion through the lens of professional sports and the model he's following is the NFL. Given that everything the B1G is doing is setting up the B1G Network to be a cash cow, Warren and the B1G think it's imperative that new schools are in cities where the media infrastructure is already in place for their network partners.

Unlike what Nate Silver is saying, most writers believe that the B1G is serious that their next expansion targets have strong academics and they also spend money on research. One school they mentioned that has beefed up their research $$$ is FSU. It's rumored that the B1G and FSU have been flirting with each other for years now, but the B1G explicitly told FSU that they were lacking in their investment in academic research. Lo and behold, FSU has steadily increased their research money over the years. As we know, academic research goes beyond the athletic department level, and it reaches all the way to school president and state system level. This means it takes an enormous effort to increase funding for research...so for FSU to go down that road, there's an incentive. AAU membership will not be as big of an issue as we think, but AAU membership is definitely a "really nice thing" to have.

B1G, like the SEC, is not going to "double up" a market during expansion...which means a school like Pitt (which ranks high in the 4 categories above) is SOL because Penn State is already in the fold. For all intents and purposes, the B1G owns the media market in Pennsylvania. B1G is looking at major media markets to expand their footprint.

B1G is also very high on expanding markets where there's a large B1G alumni presence. Makes sense if you think about the emphasis on the growing the B1G network. Not only will the B1G inherit the fan base of the new expansion target, but they will also expand the network with "built in" B1G alumni.

So how does this all tie into GT?

1. GT is in the NFL footprint with the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta is also a large base for major media networks (B1G's media partners), which means a seamless integration to broadcast B1G games in Atlanta.
2. GT is one of the best engineering schools in the world, and GT has one of the biggest research budgets across academically elite schools in the country.
3. Atlanta is the biggest market in the South, and it's a new market for the B1G. Cherry on top: It plants a B1G flag in the heart of the SEC...which will be the B1G's main competitor.
4. Atlanta is one of the biggest destinations for B1G alumni.

From what I've read, B1G school presidents have been high on GT for decades. If it was just up to the school presidents, GT would have been a part of the B1G a long time ago...and we would have been had GT done the financially correct thing 11 years ago. We'll see how it plays out for GT once the GOR issue runs its course, but after reading several sources, I do feel a LOT better about GT's chances of joining the B1G than I did a month ago.
 

gville_jacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
768
Techster said:
Signs point to what I've been saying about the West Coast schools: Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon are prime targets. Also wouldn't be surprised to see Arizona and Colorado on that list eventually.

That article makes it VERY depressing if you're a GT fan hoping the B1G extends us the next go around (probably not happening until the GOR runs out). However, there's hope for GT fans...

On another note, I've been tracking the B1G expansion talk on various twitter accounts that have been pretty accurately calling these moves the last 2 years. There was a discussion on what the B1G, and more specifically the conference commissioner Kevin Warren is looking for. This is starting to track:

1. Schools within the NFL footprint (meaning schools in a city with an NFL team).
2. Academic prestige and research $$$ (more on this later).
3. New growth markets for the B1G.
4. B1G alumni footprint.

Among writers following the B1G expansion, they all agree that Warren is looking at expansion through the lens of professional sports and the model he's following is the NFL. Given that everything the B1G is doing is setting up the B1G Network to be a cash cow, Warren and the B1G think it's imperative that new schools are in cities where the media infrastructure is already in place for their network partners.

Unlike what Nate Silver is saying, most writers believe that the B1G is serious that their next expansion targets have strong academics and they also spend money on research. One school they mentioned that has beefed up their research $$$ is FSU. It's rumored that the B1G and FSU have been flirting with each other for years now, but the B1G explicitly told FSU that they were lacking in their investment in academic research. Lo and behold, FSU has steadily increased their research money over the years. As we know, academic research goes beyond the athletic department level, and it reaches all the way to school president and state system level. This means it takes an enormous effort to increase funding for research...so for FSU to go down that road, there's an incentive. AAU membership will not be as big of an issue as we think, but AAU membership is definitely a "really nice thing" to have.

B1G, like the SEC, is not going to "double up" a market during expansion...which means a school like Pitt (which ranks high in the 4 categories above) is SOL because Penn State is already in the fold. For all intents and purposes, the B1G owns the media market in Pennsylvania. B1G is looking at major media markets to expand their footprint.

B1G is also very high on expanding markets where there's a large B1G alumni presence. Makes sense if you think about the emphasis on the growing the B1G network. Not only will the B1G inherit the fan base of the new expansion target, but they will also expand the network with "built in" B1G alumni.

So how does this all tie into GT?

1. GT is in the NFL footprint with the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta is also a large base for major media networks (B1G's media partners), which means a seamless integration to broadcast B1G games in Atlanta.
2. GT is one of the best engineering schools in the world, and GT has one of the biggest research budgets across academically elite schools in the country.
3. Atlanta is the biggest market in the South, and it's a new market for the B1G. Cherry on top: It plants a B1G flag in the heart of the SEC...which will be the B1G's main competitor.
4. Atlanta is one of the biggest destinations for B1G alumni.

From what I've read, B1G school presidents have been high on GT for decades. If it was just up to the school presidents, GT would have been a part of the B1G a long time ago...and we would have been had GT done the financially correct thing 11 years ago. We'll see how it plays out for GT once the GOR issue runs its course, but after reading several sources, I do feel a LOT better about GT's chances of joining the B1G than I did a month ago.
Click to expand...
I think this is spot on, not that my opinion means much. I really think a lot of the ACC schools are what SEC and B1G are wanting so I doubt they add too many other schools until the GOR is within a couple years. Don’t want to fill up on lesser schools but leave room to really chase the bigger fish in ACC. I predict a freeze after this latest round then a big flurry like 3 years prior to GOR running out.
 
gdamian

gdamian

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
79
The ballsy thing for the SEC to do would be to assimilate the entire ACC. Since the GOR won't allow the SEC to cherry pick schools, their only real option is to take the entire conference. A conference spanning Texas to Massachusetts.
 
MidtownJacket

MidtownJacket

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
4,862
I think an additional positive here (on top of much that has been discussed) is that if B1G wants to come south we see an easy pairing to a couple of schools to make a pod.
 

yeti92

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,048
gdamian said:
The ballsy thing for the SEC to do would be to assimilate the entire ACC. Since the GOR won't allow the SEC to cherry pick schools, their only real option is to take the entire conference. A conference spanning Texas to Massachusetts.
Click to expand...
How would that get the SEC more money?
 

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,159
Washington met with the B1G today. Oregon met with them last week. CFP expansion talks are resuming this week. The B12 is opening TV contract talks with ESPN and FOX. Lots of things going on.
 

RamblinRed

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
5,864
There appears to be some disagreement within the B10. It appears the Commish has a serious interest in further expansion, but some of the AD's and President's are not on board with that.

I think the new CFP is likely to cool down expansion talk as well as that apparently was at least part of the reason for the College President's approving the 12 team model.
 
Techster

Techster

Helluva Engineer
Messages
18,237
For those that think GT can't compete in the B1G:



It's not how much money you have, it's what you do with that money. GT can most definitely win enough to go bowling every year and have a special season every 3-5 years...like what we've always done in the past.
 
Top