Conference Realignment

[GTISYE04]

The big ten is only looking at five ACC schools because only five are in the AAU. And Miami isn’t one of those five.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Notre Dame is not coming full time to the ACC. We have the worst TV contract of all conferences so they aren‘t signing on to that garbage. They have much better options than the ACC. They played the ACC office like a fiddle to get their other sports a home while football kept the NBC money. They are smart.

Ramblin, I get what you are saying but no way this thing holds together as long as you think. These schools see the money the BIG and SEC are bringing in compared to themselves and every year that goes by is creating a bigger financial hole. You think FSU or Clemson or GT want to watch their in state rivals incrementally pull away in money for another 5 years? I’m not saying it’s imminent but the silence is deafening so far. I think a lot is going on in silence.

And even if this is the end of it for now, the seeds are absolutely being planted.

 

[rfjeff9]

Notre Dame is not coming full time to the ACC. We have the worst TV contract of all conferences so they aren‘t signing on to that garbage. They have much better options than the ACC. They played the ACC office like a fiddle to get their other sports a home while football kept the NBC money. They are smart.

Ramblin, I get what you are saying but no way this thing holds together as long as you think. These schools see the money the BIG and SEC are bringing in compared to themselves and every year that goes by is creating a bigger financial hole. You think FSU or Clemson or GT want to watch their in state rivals incrementally pull away in money for another 5 years? I’m not saying it’s imminent but the silence is deafening so far. I think a lot is going on in silence.

And even if this is the end of it for now, the seeds are absolutely being planted.

ND is looking for a way out of either/both GOR and that deal where it must be ACC if they join a conference (idk how much teeth this has).

The best way is to make sure enough schools have a dance partner already lined up if they vote to end GOR (and effectively the ACC). There is too much talk about the ACC being a sitting duck and even if it wasn't, no way ND joins a sinking ship conference if they have an invite to B1G for double the money.

ND is not joining the ACC. EVER. They are smart and can see the writing in the wall. If they want into B1G, they will destroy what's left of the ACC to do it, just hastening the inevitable.

 

[WreckinGT]

ND is looking for a way out of either/both GOR and that deal where it must be ACC if they join a conference (idk how much teeth this has).

The best way is to make sure enough schools have a dance partner already lined up if they vote to end GOR (and effectively the ACC). There is too much talk about the ACC being a sitting duck and even if it wasn't, no way ND joins a sinking ship conference if they have an invite to B1G for double the money.

ND is not joining the ACC. EVER. They are smart and can see the writing in the wall. If they want into B1G, they will destroy what's left of the ACC to do it, just hastening the inevitable.

There are reports that NDs preference is to remain independent. They probably want the ACC to survive just so they have somewhere to park their non revenue sports.

Source: Notre Dame Has One Preference Amid Conference Realignment - Sports Illustrated

Can the Irish afford to remain independent in football?

www.si.com

 

[iceeater1969]

ND is looking for a way out of either/both GOR and that deal where it must be ACC if they join a conference (idk how much teeth this has).

The best way is to make sure enough schools have a dance partner already lined up if they vote to end GOR (and effectively the ACC). There is too much talk about the ACC being a sitting duck and even if it wasn't, no way ND joins a sinking ship conference if they have an invite to B1G for double the money.

ND is not joining the ACC. EVER. They are smart and can see the writing in the wall. If they want into B1G, they will destroy what's left of the ACC to do it, just hastening the inevitable.

Espn sends unc, fsu, mia, and Clem to SEC.
ESPN pays the left overs the same contracted amount thru 36 after they round up 4 teams from b 12.

 

[Techster]

Espn sends unc, fsu, mia, and Clem to SEC.
ESPN pays the left overs the same contracted amount thru 36 after they round up 4 teams from b 12.

What no one is talking about is FOX and ESPN. FOX is partnered with the B1G, and ESPN is in cahoots with every other conference. Remember, it was ESPN working behind the scenes last year to get Texas and OU to jump to the SEC that started this round of dominos to fall.

The complication here is ESPN currently has a deal with the ACC...and what incentive do they have to let the B1G poach a conference of teams (ACC - GT/UNC/VT/Duke/Miami?) and dilute their investment in the ACC Network while making their competitor stronger? The B1G going into the Southeast also puts a flag into ESPN's biggest future asset - the SEC.

There's a LOT to untangle here. Unfortunately, GT appears to be stuck between a rock and a hard place for now.

 

[forensicbuzz]

They have said repeatedly they don’t want to be in the B1G, and being an independent may become untenable of it gets to two power conferences.

They join the ACC (football) and don’t have to move the rest of their teams either. There is something to be said for that. I also think the travel for teams out to the west coast, to play night games, will be brutal for college kids. 8pm kick off in Cali or 9pm tip off is not going to be fun.

I've heard them say repeatedly that they don't fit the B1G mold, not that they don't want to be there; they're more like an East Coast team even though they're in the Midwest. But that's just my recollection.

 

[Techster]

I've heard them say repeatedly that they don't fit the B1G mold, not that they don't want to be there; they're more like an East Coast team even though they're in the Midwest. But that's just my recollection.

If Stanford joins the B1G, and down the road GT/UVA/UNC, B1G will have most of ND's historical rivalries and regions covered. The only part of the country ND wouldn't cover is the Southwest, but they could always play Texas/TAMU/OU in an out of conference series. Navy can remain on their schedule as out of conference. (On a different tangent, TAMU is an AAU school, and there is a rumbling that TAMU wasn't happy with the SEC working behind their backs to get Texas to join. The SEC famously said they have no GOR because if a member wants to leave, they are free to do so. What other conference can TAMU get what the SEC gives them minus the drama? B1G...hmm).

USC is ND's biggest rival, and I'm sure ND would want to keep them as a "permanent" rival should they join the B1G. Stanford and Navy are next in their chain of historical rivals. Navy obviously would not join the B1G, but ND could easily keep them as an out of conference opponent.

The next teams ND has a long history with are Michigan, Mich State, Purdue, Army, Northwestern, Pitt, BC. Obviously Pitt and BC will be in the ACC (or elsewhere). Army can still schedule ND as out of conference game. The rest will be B1G.

GT has always been a historical rival for ND, though not as consequential in the recent decades.

One thing to keep in mind is ND could lose is a path to the national championship. That is important to ND. I highly doubt the SEC or B1G makes it easy on ND going forward like P5+ND or the old Bowl Series rules did. B1G already told ND to pound sand during the Pandemic if they didn't join as a full time member, and the ACC willingly took what ND was willing to offer giving ND a lifeline. ND will not have that lifeline if they want to compete for national championships in the near future. It will be hard to compete with schools getting in the neighborhood of $100 million a year from their media deals...and that's what's going to happen with current and future SEC and B1G schools. I can also see them freezing out ND...in fact, because scheduling will tedious with so many members, ND might be frozen out of "Power 2" scheduling naturally.

The flipside is if ND joins a conference, that new media contract will be a MONSTER. You think about the B1G...there will be mega national names from coast to coast versus the SEC which is mainly the Southeast and Southwest. How important will ND's independence be in the face of what's about to happen? I guess we're all going to find out.

BTW, also an interesting tidbit. For all the "so and so school is not AAU" crowd...Notre Dame is NOT an AAU member. If the B1G thinks a school will enhance the value of their league, they will take the school.

 

[BilldGopher]

BTW, also an interesting tidbit. For all the "so and so school is not AAU" crowd...Notre Dame is NOT an AAU member. If the B1G thinks a school will enhance the value of their league, they will take the school.

Came across this article hitting the AAU element from last August. References ND. Easy read.

What the Association of American Universities (AAU) has to do With Conference Expansion

A debrief on the group that could play the biggest part in the realignment race and its importance in the Big Ten.

www.si.com

 

[GoldZ]

No one from USC or UCLA said a word during their negotiations. What, exactly, do you expect an ACC school president to come out and say?

Nothing about negotiations to switch, but a great deal about the very real threat to the football program with historical changes happening, ok?

 

[Techster]

LOL...

 

[forensicbuzz]

If Stanford joins the B1G, and down the road GT/UVA/UNC, B1G will have most of ND's historical rivalries and regions covered. The only part of the country ND wouldn't cover is the Southwest, but they could always play Texas/TAMU/OU in an out of conference series. Navy can remain on their schedule as out of conference. (On a different tangent, TAMU is an AAU school, and there is a rumbling that TAMU wasn't happy with the SEC working behind their backs to get Texas to join. The SEC famously said they have no GOR because if a member wants to leave, they are free to do so. What other conference can TAMU get what the SEC gives them minus the drama? B1G...hmm).

USC is ND's biggest rival, and I'm sure ND would want to keep them as a "permanent" rival should they join the B1G. Stanford and Navy are next in their chain of historical rivals. Navy obviously would not join the B1G, but ND could easily keep them as an out of conference opponent.

The next teams ND has a long history with are Michigan, Mich State, Purdue, Army, Northwestern, Pitt, BC. Obviously Pitt and BC will be in the ACC (or elsewhere). Army can still schedule ND as out of conference game. The rest will be B1G.

GT has always been a historical rival for ND, though not as consequential in the recent decades.

One thing to keep in mind is ND could lose is a path to the national championship. That is important to ND. I highly doubt the SEC or B1G makes it easy on ND going forward like P5+ND or the old Bowl Series rules did. B1G already told ND to pound sand during the Pandemic if they didn't join as a full time member, and the ACC willingly took what ND was willing to offer giving ND a lifeline. ND will not have that lifeline if they want to compete for national championships in the near future. It will be hard to compete with schools getting in the neighborhood of $100 million a year from their media deals...and that's what's going to happen with current and future SEC and B1G schools. I can also see them freezing out ND...in fact, because scheduling will tedious with so many members, ND might be frozen out of "Power 2" scheduling naturally.

The flipside is if ND joins a conference, that new media contract will be a MONSTER. You think about the B1G...there will be mega national names from coast to coast versus the SEC which is mainly the Southeast and Southwest. How important will ND's independence be in the face of what's about to happen? I guess we're all going to find out.

BTW, also an interesting tidbit. For all the "so and so school is not AAU" crowd...Notre Dame is NOT an AAU member. If the B1G thinks a school will enhance the value of their league, they will take the school.

My point wasn't that they don't fit, it's that they never said "they didn't want to be in the B1G" just that "it wasn't as natural a fit as most people might think." I agree with everything you said about ND most likely needing to join, and if they do, it'll probably be the B1G.

 

[RamblinRed]

That article on ND is why I think 2025 is the next inflection point.

ND values 2 things. Their independence and access to the CFP. If the CFP becomes no more after 2026 and the SEC and B10 basically decide to have their own playoff (basically the Tier 1 that we have talked about in the past), then ND has to make a decision on which of those 2 things it values more.
I don't think anything else is going to happen until ND gets to a point where it has to make that decision.

Based on what we are seeing with Washington and Oregon, it is pretty clear that there are no college football brands left that are big enough to make the SEC and B10 make a move until the legal and financial considerations are more in their favor. If B10 is not going to take Washington and/or Oregon now when there is basically no legal or financial complications, that just tells me there are not really any programs that are all that attractive to the SEC or the B10 if there are any potential financial or legal complications.

Fans have to remember that the schools are not in charge of this process and really don't control their destinies. B10 and SEC will act when it makes sense for them to act. Unless ND was to make a move to the B10 (and imo ND will try to hold off on that as long as possible) I don't think much else happens right now with the Big 2. Things will almost certainly heat up between the Pac10 and B12 as they both have expiring TV contracts so they have to make themselves as attractive as possible to see what they can get. that largely leaves them with 2 choices, the most valuable teams from each conference teaming up in a new conference, or one conference picks apart the other for its best assets. But for right now the ACC is relatively protected by its GoR from all of that, though that will not always be the case.

ESPN has been shedding viewers for years. Fox Sports isn't really any better. Also, viewership of college football is really not in a great place - especially in terms of the CFP.
The numbers for this past season were better than for the COVID season, but still well below the typical. The AL-Cincy game was the 2nd least watched Semifinal ever and the UGA-Mich game was the least watched game in the late window ever. The Championship game between AL-UGA was the 2nd least watched ever, better than only the COVID AL-OSU game.

I do wonder if the lower subscriber numbers and lower viewership ultimately create something of a bubble where eventually ESPN and FOX are not able to continue to payout the levels that are being discussed now.

Personally i'm quite agnostic on what happens to GT. If it ultimately gets a bid to the B10 then great, though I believe it is likely that GT is likely to be more of a cannon fodder school in that conference. GT simply lacks the fan and alumni base to compete with most of the schools in the B10 (and SEC). OSU raises more than $!00MM in revenue from its home football games every year - GT's total budget isn't even that large. If GT ends up in a future Tier 2 type conference, i'm fine with that to - that is basically what GT is right now. I will support the program and root for the coaches and players regardless of what conference they are in.

I don't believe the ACC is likely to be the same in the 2030's as it is now, but I don't believe it is in imminent danger right now. All any school can do is put itself in its most attractive position over the next few years and see how the chips fall. I'm still not convinced that the Big 2 even get to 20 teams, and i'm really suspect that they would go to more than that -I don't believe the money will be there to support that.

 

[RamblinRed]

I think as a fan you have to make a decision on what's most important to you.
Is it that you will only follow and support GT football if it is playing in the highest tier (which is likely to be the SEC and B10) or you will follow and support GT football regardless of what tier it is in.
That is a personal decision every fan may have to make down the road.

If GT isn't invited into the B10 or SEC, that doesn't mean GT is going to be playing FCS football for example.
I am expecting eventually the FBS is going to divide into 2 or 3 tiers for college football purposes. My expectation is that GT is likely to be in that 2nd tier, but maybe it ends up in Tier 1, but that is for the future to decide. I also expect each tier will have its own rules and regulations in terms of how many scholarships to give out, how much money to pay athletes, how large your athletic budget has to be, how many sports you have to fund, how large your stadium has to be. There are regulations around those now for all the P5 and G5 conferences.

I mentioned above about TV viewership, but the bigger long term issue for college football is probably butts in seats. Attendance has been decreasing for over a decade and actual attendance is considerably worse than announced attendance. The Wall Street Journal has a graphic with sold vs scanned tickets for 96 FBS schools. In general for P5 schools most of them the percentage of scanned tickets to announced attendance hovers between 70-75%. The percentages at most G5 schools are considerably worse. GT was at 72% in 2021. TN and WI were the 2 P5 schools with the highest % at 88 and 84% respectively. FSU was a pretty awful 57%.

How many college football fans are actually in the stands?

At many Football Bowl Subdivision schools, the number of tickets scanned at the stadium falls far short of a team\

graphics.wsj.com

 

[forensicbuzz]

The only way I foresee something else happening if ND isn't doing something is if the B12 and Pac12 team up to try to compete with the ACC for that 3rd conference. If they come forward with some form a conference that would bind the schools in some manner, that may force the hand of B1G/SEC if they plan to expand westward again. Don't see this happening, but it's the only scenario I see where a non-ND activity occurs.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Interesting idea but what makes you think this?

We are spending a LOT of ink (pixels?) on the possibility of going to the B1G, but we are ignoring some major roadblocks that stand in the way.

1. Grant of Rights. As I understand it, the ONLY way out of that is for the ACC to willingly dissolve. Let's say the B1G and $EC poach GT, Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, and 2-3 other teams, that would be roughly half the conference. While the money difference would be enough to pay out the exit fee, there is almost NO WAY the remaining schools are going to agree to dissolve the ACC and lose the TV money from the marquee names. Currently there are 14 years remaining on the deal. That's a LOT of revenue lost without any real prospects of making it up, since the remaining schools will have less drawing power.

2. Notre Dame. ND does not want to be in the B1G. Had they wanted to, they could have had the same deal with the B1G that they have with us. Also, ND is contractually obligated to join the ACC if the decide to join any conference before 2036. While this contract is a whole lot easier to break than the GoR, we should take ND at their word that they don't see themselves as a B1G team. Every indication they have given, including sacrificing the Michigan rivalry. It's my opinion that ND also does not see themselves in the $EC either. For those that say ND will never sacrifice football independence, I think the day is coming where they have to.

3. End Game. As has been speculated, I believe the $EC and B1G both desire to move all their sports, not just the football teams, away from the NCAA umbrella. Ideally, they would both love to carve up the ACC and the remnants of the PAC and Big XII, but the GOR of the ACC prevent that. Two realistic options remain for the B1G and SEC, one is to wait out the time, likely 'til at least 2030 and try to expand then (which postpones the breakaway from the NCAA 'til then) or, the $EC and B1G both accept the ACC as the third remaining power conference and each fills out to 20 to 24 teams.

Now, while my strong preference would be to see GT return to the $EC, and a move to the B1G would not bother me, the ACC is in a position holding more than a few cards here at the moment. Because our teams are not poachable, we are in position to retain our position in the top 3 of conferences. My gut feeling is that the $EC, B1G, and ACC commissioners get together and hammer out the details for their own playoff, and force ND to join a conference, which would be the ACC. To sweeten this, I think the ACC invites Stanford and Navy to give ND two permanent rivals as conference games. It would also add Kansas as a basketball school to an already proud BBall conference. I think the $EC responds with Oklahoma St and California (Recruiting on the west coast) and the B1G gobbles up Oregon and Arizona (both AAU schools).

That would put 18 teams in each of the three remaining power conferences, leaving 18 current P5 teams remaining. It's likely then that the remaining teams for a PAC/Big XII merger as conference 4, meaning there will be 72 teams in the new breakaway division. Four 18-team conferences are a lot more manageable than two 25-30 team conferences, and will allow the new entity to bring a very large lever to the TV bargaining table. Such a move would necessitate ESPN revisiting the ACC TV contract. This would allow the TV contracts to be redone in the next 2-3 years and allow for a quicker breakaway from the NCAA.

Now, I may be completely wrong, but there is a LOT of logic to this IMO.

 

[MWBATL]

How many ACC schools have made a statement? Honest question. Been mostly unplugged for the last few days.

At this point, it strikes me that operating covertly is the right move... just like USC and UCLA as well as Texas and Oklahoma.

For ACC schools looking for greener pastures, it's probably more important to operate silently if we truly need a near consensus of ACC departures to blow up the GOR.

An excellent point. I bow to your wisdom. (At least on this point...LOL)

 

[bobongo]

I think as a fan you have to make a decision on what's most important to you.
Is it that you will only follow and support GT football if it is playing in the highest tier (which is likely to be the SEC and B10) or you will follow and support GT football regardless of what tier it is in.
That is a personal decision every fan may have to make down the road.

If GT isn't invited into the B10 or SEC, that doesn't mean GT is going to be playing FCS football for example.
I am expecting eventually the FBS is going to divide into 2 or 3 tiers for college football purposes. My expectation is that GT is likely to be in that 2nd tier, but maybe it ends up in Tier 1, but that is for the future to decide. I also expect each tier will have its own rules and regulations in terms of how many scholarships to give out, how much money to pay athletes, how large your athletic budget has to be, how many sports you have to fund, how large your stadium has to be. There are regulations around those now for all the P5 and G5 conferences.

Really hoping for Tier 1.

I think the B1G is a long shot and the SEC even longer. Our last best hope is that ND is enticed into the ACC eventually and the ACC stays together as the third power conference.

 

[WreckinGT]

The only way I foresee something else happening if ND isn't doing something is if the B12 and Pac12 team up to try to compete with the ACC for that 3rd conference. If they come forward with some form a conference that would bind the schools in some manner, that may force the hand of B1G/SEC if they plan to expand westward again. Don't see this happening, but it's the only scenario I see where a non-ND activity occurs.

Utah, Arizona, Arizona St, and Colorado are meeting with the Big 12 today. I would be surprised if nothing came from that. The Pac 12 doesn't seem to have any interest in surviving.

 

[slugboy]

And here we go…