Conference Realignment

bobongo

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Still not sure the ACC doesn’t just grab ND and make a play at power3.
I can imagine the ACC making an all-out push for ND right now. It may be the only thing that can save the conference.

But they'll have to get somebody B1G to come along with them. It's a tall order.

Our best shot (a longshot) at landing in a power conference is probably just to stay put. Adding ND would stabilize the conference.

But that having been said, I wouldn't turn down the chance to leave (an even longer shot) if it presented itself.
 

RonJohn

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... especially if parties to that contract want it to change.
Not all of the parties involved will want it to change. Will an ex-wife agree to reduce or stop collecting alimony if you want to stop paying? Some ex-wives will move in with a new boyfriend but not get married specifically to keep drawing alimony. The remaining teams in the ACC will be even worse like jilted spouses who were left for another partner. They will see it as if they own that money, so why should they just give it to the teams that left.
 

WreckinGT

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I would prefer the SEC, from a practical drivability from campus basis. Especially for non revenue sports who will have to travel via bus.

That said, the B1G academic and basketball perspective is much more interesting to me sitting in a vacuum.

Still not sure the ACC doesn’t just grab ND and make a play at power3.
What would be the incentive for ND to go to the ACC? Even if the ACC doubled it's TV contract, ND would still be leaving 30+ million on the table every year.
 

MidtownJacket

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What would be the incentive for ND to go to the ACC? Even if the ACC doubled it's TV contract, ND would still be leaving 30+ million on the table every year.
They have said repeatedly they don’t want to be in the B1G, and being an independent may become untenable of it gets to two power conferences.

They join the ACC (football) and don’t have to move the rest of their teams either. There is something to be said for that. I also think the travel for teams out to the west coast, to play night games, will be brutal for college kids. 8pm kick off in Cali or 9pm tip off is not going to be fun.
 

GoJacketsInRaleigh

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They have said repeatedly they don’t want to be in the B1G, and being an independent may become untenable of it gets to two power conferences.

They join the ACC (football) and don’t have to move the rest of their teams either. There is something to be said for that. I also think the travel for teams out to the west coast, to play night games, will be brutal for college kids. 8pm kick off in Cali or 9pm tip off is not going to be fun.
I believe ND has said they want to keep a flexible schedule moreso than saying they don't want to be in the B1G. Put USC and Stanford in the B1G and that's two more conference games they want on their schedule. I think we actually have an advantage as ND would love to play games in Atlanta against us.
 

Techster

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For those that worry about GOR keeping us in the ACC until 2036, the one rumor being talked about in the Twittersphere is the ACC dissolving altogether. I'm not sure what percentage of the members would have to vote to dissolve according to the bylaws, but that is one avenue for the member schools, and probably the least expensive.

If you look at who has the most to lose by hanging onto the ACC, it's the "nameplate" schools in the ACC: Notre Dame (I believe ND signed their non football GOR to ACC), North Carolina + Duke (it's a foregone conclusion that one will not leave without the other), Clemson, FSU, UVA, GT, Miami. 14 years is a LOT of time to fall behind other schools in revenue if you consider yourself a national brand that's competing for TV $$$ and recruits. If you include ND, who may or may not get a full vote, that's 8 schools. If you don't count them, that's 7 of the 15 schools. Now this is where old fashioned back door politics starts to happen.

I could see VT using politics to make UVA take them wherever they go (most likely the B1G...and that's what happened with VT joining the ACC), or at the very least make sure they have a landing spot in the SEC (IMO, that's a good fit for VT and the SEC). UVA is rumored to be in the ACC group that B1G has coveted for years (along with GT and UNC). Miami wants into the B1G as well. They could tell FSU they would vote "no" if FSU takes off to the SEC and leaves they high and dry. There could be block of "yes" votes that know their destination, and some pulling strings that will vote "no" unless they have a landing spot in the Big 2 conference. For instance, NC State could tell UNC and Duke they would vote "yes" if the SEC takes them (another good fit for the SEC and the school) or if they piggyback off of UNC and Duke's invite to the B1G. I have ZERO doubt a lot this discussion is going on at the highest levels right now.

The one thing I fear is the SEC trying to play "defense" and inviting GT back to the fold. IMO, GT's brightest future is with the B1G given their emphasis on education, and they actually try to keep a competitive balance among their schools. SEC looks to be heading for a wild wild west situation in the near future, and there's a LOT of BIG egos with 'Bama/UGA/Tenn/Texas/OU/UF/etc. GT does not want to contend with that. My fear is GT and the "old guard" will want to renew old rivalries with SEC schools and want to stay "local"...which is what got us in this mess when we turned down the B1G the first time.

EDIT:

One thing to keep in mind, schools get their invites well before anyone knows. Schools will not leave unless they know they have an invite, and conferences aren't advertising to get schools. The reason you hear a lot of "Texas and OU reached out to the SEC" or "USC and UCLA reached out to the B1G" is because there are lawyers. The schools leaving and the conferences want to avoid any tortious interference lawsuits.

For all we know GT may already have an invite (there's actually whispers of this on the twittersphere) but we will not do anything until the lane is clear of GOR and ACC bylaws. If GT is good at one thing, it's keeping hush about these things. How many knew about the original B1G offer until it was published by the media several years later?
 
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stinger 1957

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With the way things are today, how do we even know that ESPN, FOX, or any major network will be around in 5-1 years?
Fair chance they may not be, that's why the conferences have to have size, cover lots of geographic territory, they will need to have their own TV systems, sell streaming memberships to alums, fans, students, have full blown sales depts for advertising, a complete working business model IMO, the reason they want large media mkts etc., BIG can sell advertising nationwide. They may be the only college conference that will be able to do so nationwide.
Look, I'm sure some of what I'm saying may not be exactly right, but I think conferences saw this coming long ago and is part of the reason they started their own TV networks, getting ready for the time when they needed to go totally independent of network TV. Each school may be able to use this system for education purposes, other things who knows. I see unbelievable possibilities, particularly in the light that I strongly believe that higher education and how we educate people in the future is going to drastically change. How many people have I heard over the years say they hardly used any thing college gave them when they got out in the real world, including GT grads, grads from Stanford, Auburn, you name it, I just heard it from a 25 year old GT grad that's newly out in the world working. This is all going to change IMO, it's so damn expensive it had to change, I see internships in all sort of forms coming more and more into play, in bigger ways and educational needs being built around what you are doing in your internship/career entry. Again, I'm sure I'm not right on this but I believe I'm hitting all around it. All IMO I guess is the best way to say it, and I've been wrong before.
 

stinger 1957

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"Techster", said:The one thing I fear is the SEC trying to play "defense" and inviting GT back to the fold. IMO, GT's brightest future is with the B1G given their emphasis on education, and they actually try to keep a competitive balance among their schools. SEC looks to be heading for a wild wild west situation in the near future, and there's a LOT of BIG egos with 'Bama/UGA/Tenn/Texas/OU/UF/etc. GT does not want to contend with that. My fear is GT and the "old guard" will want to renew old rivalries with SEC schools and want to stay "local"...which is what got us in this mess when we turned down the B1G the first time.

Techster:
I don't think that is as strong as it used to be, I'm a GT/SEC time period grad and that has changed with me in the last 10 years or so, not sure what has changed it with me exactly, but it has changed, plus many of those people have died and the rest are really old, I'm 87. Yes there are some that are younger than us that felt and possibly feel that way, I just have a feeling most will be ok with a move to the "BIG". Maybe these post will bring some of them out for opinions. From a money standpoint, looks to me like the "BIG" is setting themselves up to be the leader in $ as this thing moves forward and that will sway a lot of doubters IMO. Everyone knows you gotta have the bucks going forward to compete. Whatever the NIL ends up being, will be heavily influenced by your national exposure IMO and it appears "BIG" has a really good chance to win the money and National exposure battle. Thus maybe I now see why CGC is so big on branding and marketing, I'm guessing he anticipated Atlanta and GT would be desirable and who knows maybe the "BIG" has been staying in touch with GT behind the scenes. I have often guessed that they probably have been. Large media mkts are obviously very, very important to "BIG"and the ATL is 10th in size. The Ohio State AD made a point of saying in a press conference that with the addn of USC and UCLA the "BIG" now has the top 3 media mkts NY, LA, Chicago. I think Chicago probably has a lot to do with the "BIG" continuing to push for ND, that locks Chicago down with NW, and ND, plus they have those rivalries out west as well as in the "BIG".
 

RamblinRed

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On the GoR. I'm not convinced it will keep the ACC together until 2036 - that seems unlikely by itself.
But I think there is just way too much nonsense going on in the Twittersphere with alot of people talking out of their butts and not actually knowing anything.
It is a huge financial consideration for the conferences to deal with.

Unless ND decides to go to the B10 I am not convinced there will be any more changes to the Big 2 for a couple of years. 2025 seems to be the next most likely inflection point as the CFP will have to be dealt with.

The ACC may eventually fall apart, or it may survive just fine, but we are probably 5+ years from finding that out.

I'll go back to something I said yesterday - If Washington and Oregon aren't seen as valuable enough programs to be getting invites right now (When B10 could have them without worrying about media rights), how many schools do you think are legitimately attractive to the big 2 right now? I'm betting that number is less than the number of fingers on one hand.

I think B10 would likely do a deal where ND comes into the fold if they add Stanford - other than that i'm not sure we will see any moves by the B10 or the SEC for multiple years. And I think it would potentially take B10 adding Stanford to get ND as that would put their 5 biggest rivals in the B10.

FWIW, I think the talk about GT on the Twittersphere is likely just that, alot of talk that means nothing.

GT may be valuable to the B10 at some point, thought i'm not completely convinced of that, but it will almost certainly be one of the last teams taken by them if it happens at all. And I think there would be zero interest in GT right now due to the GoR. GT doesn't bring nearly enough to the table for B10 to seriously look at them until that is no more.


Fans seem all convinced that the big 2 are going to have 20 to 24 teams in them. It will not shock me if they both end up with less than 20.
What have we talked about over the last year or more, a super conference with 24-32 teams. Once TX and OU end up in the SEC and USC And UCLA in the B10 you are at 32. It would be pretty easy for them to then set up their own playoff structure between the 2 leagues like a professional league where both have their own post-seasons with the winner's facing off in a college Super Bowl.
It is very easy for me to imagine a future where the big 2 have 16-18 teams each.

For me the most likely outcome right now, and i'll probably be 100% wrong, is that there is little more movement now or even the next couple of years - with the possible exception of ND. There will be more changes but they will occur when it is most advantageous to the Big 2 from a financial and legal standpoint. Those will be the 2 driving factors in decision making. So maybe something happens in 2025. Maybe at the end of the decade depending upon when contracts come up.
 

reckrider

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Sixteen looks like the magic number for now. AZ, AZ St. , Utah and Colorado could leave the PAC and join the B12. We desperately need ND for football and one more strong school, at least to tide us over for five years or so.
 

bobongo

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"Techster", said:The one thing I fear is the SEC trying to play "defense" and inviting GT back to the fold. IMO, GT's brightest future is with the B1G given their emphasis on education, and they actually try to keep a competitive balance among their schools. SEC looks to be heading for a wild wild west situation in the near future, and there's a LOT of BIG egos with 'Bama/UGA/Tenn/Texas/OU/UF/etc. GT does not want to contend with that. My fear is GT and the "old guard" will want to renew old rivalries with SEC schools and want to stay "local"...which is what got us in this mess when we turned down the B1G the first time.

Techster:
I don't think that is as strong as it used to be, I'm a GT/SEC time period grad and that has changed with me in the last 10 years or so, not sure what has changed it with me exactly, but it has changed, plus many of those people have died and the rest are really old, I'm 87. Yes there are some that are younger than us that felt and possibly feel that way, I just have a feeling most will be ok with a move to the "BIG". Maybe these post will bring some of them out for opinions. From a money standpoint, looks to me like the "BIG" is setting themselves up to be the leader in $ as this thing moves forward and that will sway a lot of doubters IMO. Everyone knows you gotta have the bucks going forward to compete. Whatever the NIL ends up being, will be heavily influenced by your national exposure IMO and it appears "BIG" has a really good chance to win the money and National exposure battle. Thus maybe I now see why CGC is so big on branding and marketing, I'm guessing he anticipated Atlanta and GT would be desirable and who knows maybe the "BIG" has been staying in touch with GT behind the scenes. I have often guessed that they probably have been. Large media mkts are obviously very, very important to "BIG"and the ATL is 10th in size. The Ohio State AD made a point of saying in a press conference that with the addn of USC and UCLA the "BIG" now has the top 3 media mkts NY, LA, Chicago. I think Chicago probably has a lot to do with the "BIG" continuing to push for ND, that locks Chicago down with NW, and ND, plus they have those rivalries out west as well as in the "BIG".
At this point I don't care whether we stay or go or where we end up, as long as it's in a major power conference.
 

bobongo

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We desperately need ND for football and one more strong school, at least to tide us over for five years or so.
It's a long shot, but it's probably the best shot we have to keep the ACC together as a major conference and for us to remain in a major conference.
 

Techster

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"Techster", said:The one thing I fear is the SEC trying to play "defense" and inviting GT back to the fold. IMO, GT's brightest future is with the B1G given their emphasis on education, and they actually try to keep a competitive balance among their schools. SEC looks to be heading for a wild wild west situation in the near future, and there's a LOT of BIG egos with 'Bama/UGA/Tenn/Texas/OU/UF/etc. GT does not want to contend with that. My fear is GT and the "old guard" will want to renew old rivalries with SEC schools and want to stay "local"...which is what got us in this mess when we turned down the B1G the first time.

Techster:
I don't think that is as strong as it used to be, I'm a GT/SEC time period grad and that has changed with me in the last 10 years or so, not sure what has changed it with me exactly, but it has changed, plus many of those people have died and the rest are really old, I'm 87. Yes there are some that are younger than us that felt and possibly feel that way, I just have a feeling most will be ok with a move to the "BIG". Maybe these post will bring some of them out for opinions. From a money standpoint, looks to me like the "BIG" is setting themselves up to be the leader in $ as this thing moves forward and that will sway a lot of doubters IMO. Everyone knows you gotta have the bucks going forward to compete. Whatever the NIL ends up being, will be heavily influenced by your national exposure IMO and it appears "BIG" has a really good chance to win the money and National exposure battle. Thus maybe I now see why CGC is so big on branding and marketing, I'm guessing he anticipated Atlanta and GT would be desirable and who knows maybe the "BIG" has been staying in touch with GT behind the scenes. I have often guessed that they probably have been. Large media mkts are obviously very, very important to "BIG"and the ATL is 10th in size. The Ohio State AD made a point of saying in a press conference that with the addn of USC and UCLA the "BIG" now has the top 3 media mkts NY, LA, Chicago. I think Chicago probably has a lot to do with the "BIG" continuing to push for ND, that locks Chicago down with NW, and ND, plus they have those rivalries out west as well as in the "BIG".

Thanks for the input @stinger 1957 .

The chances of SEC inviting GT for "defensive" purposes isn't as big as B1G pushing for GT. However, given the history of our decision makers choosing the wrong door...well, let's just say I hope the SEC isn't an option if the B1G is also a choice.

I was down on the B1G coming back around to GT, but I keep thinking of this chart from several years ago:


GT and Miami are the only schools in the South that register on that chart at an appreciable level. Atlanta and South Florida are also the two biggest regions B1G population is migrating towards. If you read the tea leaves of the schools being invited (UCLA/USC - LA Market), and were invited (Maryland - Baltimore/DC, Rutgers - NY/NJ, Penn State - Pittsburgh/Philly) all those markets not only have a large alumni base, but are also large media markets. According to that chart, Atlanta has a larger B1G alumni base than most B1G member states.

If anyone wants to feel hopeful about GT and B1G, that's the key. We're in a large media market, with a large B1G almuni base, and we also have one of the most fertile recruiting territories...oh, it also helps Atlanta is in the heart of SEC country.

If anyone has been reading the tea leaves the past couple of years, NONE of this is shocking. It's all been put out there by various media members who are reliable source. This is what I wrote in another thread almost exactly a year ago:


Here are the plain facts: There is about to a seismic shift in college sports and as of right now, there are two conferences that look to be biggest battleships in the sea. The SEC and the B1G. Everyone with half a brain sees where all this is going. If you get an invite to one of the battleships, you better take a seat, because every little boat left over after expansion is going to get sunk in their wake. GT walked away from the SEC, and turned down the B1G, and now we're at risk of being at the mercy of events outside of our control...whereas if we were current members of either the SEC or B1G, GT would be worrying more about investing in the future rather than worrying about being left out in the cold. Once Clemson/UNC/UVA/FSU/Duke leaves, it's game over for the ACC. Just look at what happened to the schools in the Big East. Look at the schools in the AAC, Conference USA, and Sun Belt because that will be our fate if we don't join the B1G or SEC. Our best case scenario in that situation is hoping GT becomes a UCF. That's not a future I want for GT.

It's funny to go through that thread now because there a LOT of people who think big business is happy with the status quo. National level conferences with 20-30 teams is just a pipe dream.

College sports is BIG business. FOX and ESPN are gonna do what's best for them. B1G and SEC are going to do what's best for them. GT would be smart to do what's best for us. Like I said in that thread, it doesn't take a genius to see where all of this is headed. Conferences are going national level, and college SAs will get paid. Schools and fans either accept it and try to position ourselves in the best way possible, or go the way of the Ivy Leagues.
 
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