Conference Realignment

[CEB]

I know all this. And I’m not making bolstering statements on the internet. I know it’s complicated. I’m simply saying there is zero chance the GOR holds the ACC together until 2036. None. The GOR was created by people due to a monetary incentive. These same people will undo the GOR once given another monetary incentive. That’s how everything in the world works.

You keep bringing up minor details like media rights and coaches shows, etc. We all get that these are part of the GOR as of today. But the GOR won’t exist in its current form once the shuffle gets to ACC teams. And the shuffle will come to the ACC well before 2036. It’s only 2022. I have no inside info but the past tells us what the future holds. The SEC getting Texas/OU was complicated yet they got it done in silence. The BIG taking California was complicated but done in silence. Right now, I have no doubt that a lot of things are happening in silence. With Phillips ties to the BIG I wouldn’t be shocked if he helps in the ending of the GOR and ends up with a cushy BIG job once UNC and others end up there with others going to SEC.

You’re right... it will happen before 2036. Probably 3-4 years prior, just like the TX/ OU and USC/UCLA deals did.
I can see deals getting done to tie up teams and markets soon, with full membership happening in the early 2030’s when the value of GOR is a little better quantifiable to handle payouts.
It’s interesting right now because the BIG is trying to renegotiate their deal. They’d like to have teams in their pockets for that discussion, probably so they can negotiate automatic bumps as they come into the conference.
I’m hoping that’s the case. However, I am thinking the BIG is going to negotiate such that they have another bite at the apple in the mid 2030s when ACC and SEC are all in the midst of reshuffling.

 

[MWBATL]

No one is getting kicked out of the SEC or B1G regardless of how putrid their programs are at the moment. The B1G especially will not abandon members. Of all the "big" conferences, the B1G actually conducts themselves with a sense of decency and code of ethics. Besides, you can't have a conference full of elite teams...there needs to be cannon fodder for the rich to pad their record. It also is counterintuitive to the whole purpose of the next phase of expansion: National level conference and media deals.

Anyone who thinks USC and UCLA reached out to B1G and not the other way around...well, let's just say I have beachfront property in Topeka Kansas to sell you. USC and UCLA have been livid about the leadership of the PAC12 for years now due to the bad media contract. They thought their last conference commissioner was going to lead them to contracts equivalent to what B1G and SEC were getting. USC and UCLA rumors have been going on for a while now and I mentioned it in another thread a few months back. As soon and Texas and Oklahoma went to the SEC, everyone in the media looked out west at USC and UCLA making the next jump, and the B1G has always been in the driver's seat for it. There have been "back channel" talks with conferences and marquess programs going on for a while now.

On to GT being left out. GT is already struggling to maintain our status as a P5 team. We already made a strategic error years ago by turning the B1G down (decades after Dodd's Folly), and if we turn them down again for fear of "not being able to compete with the more well funded (and well managed) programs", well we're going to deserve everything that happens. If we get left out of the SEC and B1G conference, you can pretty much say goodbye to GT being relevant again. We're paying on debt for P5 facilities, what happens when GT and whatever reminents of the ACC and some other conference can't command the same TV contract anymore? Do you think donors will be as willing to pony up money to fund a GA Southern/GA State/Middle Tennessee level program? Do you think anyone outside of GT alumni will even care to come to games or support the team? We're definitely not going to attract good coaches or recruits. We're already getting bare minimum support from sidewalk fans, imagine how much harder it'll be outside of the "Big 2" conferences. Do some of you believe once the marquee programs in the ACC jump to the B1G and SEC the remaining programs will be able to ask for a same amount of media money?

Bottom line, GT is heading into uncharted territory. I'm not old enough to remember GT wandering the wilderness after we left the SEC and before joining the ACC, but GT's athletic program was almost destroyed. A lot of us are GT fans because of the national championship in 1990, the SEC wars/SEC titles when we were an SEC member, ACC titles in football and basketball, Final Four runs, ACC Championship games, high level athletes (Kenny Anderson, Calvin Johnson, Joe Hamilton, Stephon Marburn, Jarrett Jack, Chris Bosh,etc). What happens when all of that is gone? Look no further than GA State. People already hate coming to GT because of parking and location downtown. Imagine trudging yourself and your family into Atlanta without the benefit of seeing a Clemson/UGA/FSU/UNC/Duke/etc. Instead you get some former FCS or D2 team. GT will be become a team other teams pay to travel to them on opening day or homecoming. Yes, some of us will continue to do so because we love GT and we've been fans forever, but once the national conference start taking affect, and GT is out in the cold, our numbers will dwindle drastically as time goes on.

I think this is all accurate. And this is what I anticipate will happen. Instead of the 40,000 we average these days, our attendance will drop rather sharply...who knows what to, but certainly down to half of the current levels (perhaps much more than that will drop out). Some people will be entertained by watching more competitive games against other Tier 2 teams, but many (like me) will abandon the program because they simply decided to stop trying to compete at a national level. It is sad, but we will look like Tulane (at best) and Sewanee (at worst). [Yes, I know Sewanee no longer fields a team.]

The Administration may be pleased with that outcome. Sports fans will not be.

 

[MWBATL]

Just curious...all of this makes me feel already like supporting GT football any longer is a dead end. There is no statement coming out from the school's leadership which indicates a desire or commitment to continue to compete at a national level. Just...dead silence. It sounds to me like @RamblinRed was spot on and the Administration really could care less about all this.

Is anyone else as depressed about all this as I am?

 

[brian22]

Just curious...all of this makes me feel already like supporting GT football any longer is a dead end. There is no statement coming out from the school's leadership which indicates a desire or commitment to continue to compete at a national level. Just...dead silence. It sounds to me like @RamblinRed was spot on and the Administration really could care less about all this.

Is anyone else as depressed about all this as I am?

It’s easy to imagine a path to the worst case scenario, but I don’t see Tech letting it’s football program fall on its face. Not when it really matters. Tech doesn’t always get the support it needs from the hill, not to the extent we would prefer anyways, but Tech will be standing when the dust settles. No doubt in my mind.

 

[IEEEWreck]

Ya'll are debating second order processes while ignoring the first order process that dominates: ESPN as we know it is dying.

It lost 8 million cable and satellite subscribers last year. Disclosure shenanigans around streaming make the net loss impossible to pin down, but conservative estimates are a net loss of 3 million AND a ~30% loss of revenue on people who migrated from cable to streaming. There's plenty of articles talking about the loss and what it means, but it is very consistent with across the industry losses in cable and satellite and devaluation of streaming services as the market realizes that streaming isn't as profitable as cable and to the moon optimism on subscriber count gives way to reality.

The cash flush in football is directly attributable to an unprecedented bundling market distortion as ESPN ate its late competitive models. Thing is, the peak of that phenomenon was 10 years ago, and just as nobody made as much money off of bundling all sports everywhere as ESPN no one stands to lose as much money as streaming breaks the monopolies and therefore the bundlers. Moreover, CFB just isn't a champion content source for ESPN. As revenue decline squeezes the price of media rights, CFB lacks both the numbers and the sustained enthusiasm of the markets for the NFL or NBA and it's fractured into conferences instead of wrapped up in culturally and legally well aligned leagues.

The conferences are expanding not because they are terrified of the next negotiation and want to protect their income. They will fail. They are attempting to form a cartel in a shrinking market, and that is never a stable economic arrangement without things like assassinations and theft that the SEC has only limited access to.

The truth is, as access to cash from people who want to buy NFL games disappears, the price of a team's media is going to revert towards the equilibrium price of the number of eyeballs that team brings to the table. In that environment, there's no particular premium in selling your media rights to an ESPN vs. selling your games directly yourself.

The "superconference" will last maybe 10 years at the longest as ESPN's subscriber base collapses. Then they have to actually sell a media product to consumers that intend to consume it. That means all the reasons this thread has well identified that the new superconference is a bad game to watch will drag down revenue for the conference. Competition will break out for watching experience like it has for stadium experience. No op empty suit executives will be fired, idiot announcers will be removed and individual team tailored media will dominate. Heck, even advertising revenue will decline as giant ad buy bundling becomes impossible and your local team's game may well have ads from local businesses.

Not dealing with that reality is like arguing over which car is gonna win a race because they have a better spoiler.

 

[gtphd]

Just curious...all of this makes me feel already like supporting GT football any longer is a dead end. There is no statement coming out from the school's leadership which indicates a desire or commitment to continue to compete at a national level. Just...dead silence. It sounds to me like @RamblinRed was spot on and the Administration really could care less about all this.

Is anyone else as depressed about all this as I am?

For decades there has been a debate internally at Tech about whether we should compete in athletics and sacrifice academics or do the opposite. The implication of the indecision was a middling athletic program. Now the decision is being made.

 

[DavidStandingBear]

I hope you’re right. The B1G may decide that Clemson is close enough to the Atlanta market and go after them instead.

How much of the Atlanta market are GT fans?

 

[GT flunkout]

I’d love to be in the B1G or SEC, in that order. However, I think the transition over the past three years would’ve been even uglier if we had been.

There's no way to really be uglier than the last 3 years with nine wins, with multiple losses to G5 teams and one FCS team. Pretending that the SEC and B10 don't have their own stinker programs each year. I'm guessing it would have been the same, W/L wise. Who cares if some of those losses would have been blowouts with these seasons.

 

[RonJohn]

I know all this. And I’m not making bolstering statements on the internet. I know it’s complicated. I’m simply saying there is zero chance the GOR holds the ACC together until 2036. None. The GOR was created by people due to a monetary incentive. These same people will undo the GOR once given another monetary incentive. That’s how everything in the world works.

You keep bringing up minor details like media rights and coaches shows, etc. We all get that these are part of the GOR as of today. But the GOR won’t exist in its current form once the shuffle gets to ACC teams. And the shuffle will come to the ACC well before 2036. It’s only 2022. I have no inside info but the past tells us what the future holds. The SEC getting Texas/OU was complicated yet they got it done in silence. The BIG taking California was complicated but done in silence. Right now, I have no doubt that a lot of things are happening in silence. With Phillips ties to the BIG I wouldn’t be shocked if he helps in the ending of the GOR and ends up with a cushy BIG job once UNC and others end up there with others going to SEC.

I am not saying that the GOR will definitely keep the ACC together. What I am saying is that is an extreme impediment to a team leaving the ACC. ACC teams do not own the media rights to their athletics. As it stands, if Clemson joins the SEC and wins 10 football national championships in a row, the ACC would get all of the media money from those playoff and championship games. The SEC would get zero.

GOR isn't a simple contract that can be violated. It is more like @slugboy said if you sign over the title of your house to an HOA, the HOA owns your house. If you join a car racing club and everyone in the club signs over the title to their race car, you could leave the club but you couldn't take your car with you. It is a property issue. The ACC owns the media rights and the copyright to all of it's members athletic events. Leaving the ACC isn't the issue. Being able to provide value to someone else is the issue.

 

[bobongo]

How much of the Atlanta market are GT fans?

15%, maybe.

Because of the contract, we have maybe 8 or 10 years to improve our standing in Atlanta and in college football until the ultimate demise of the ACC. The GOR is not our enemy - it is our friend.
But we need to get on the stick.

 

[Sheboygan]

Last three years were ugly anyway. But the money would have been sweeter which would sooth some of the bitterness.

Just curious...all of this makes me feel already like supporting GT football any longer is a dead end. There is no statement coming out from the school's leadership which indicates a desire or commitment to continue to compete at a national level. Just...dead silence. It sounds to me like @RamblinRed was spot on and the Administration really could care less about all this.

Is anyone else as depressed about all this as I am?

Yes. I am depressed and worried. Looking back over my 60 years of being a Tech fan, I see very few successes and a lot of missteps and miscalculations. For a school that
prides itself on being forward looking in academics, there always has been an undeserved arrogance in the athletic program. Yes, we have a rich history in athletics, and we are in a huge metro area that surrounds us- with all the pros and cons that are part of that. But our ADs recently have been inept and it has cost us dearly.
IMHO, we have chronically underachieved - except for a short span with PJ- in the two most important sports in college athletics. For us to become relevant and attractive to the Big 10, we need to realize we are in a fight for survival to avoid becoming an afterthought in today's college athletics. If we want to become another MIT or Cal Tech, where sports are basically non-existent, we can just keep on doing what we have done lately in FB and BB. The school we love is not nearly as attractive to other conferences as many of us, and the AD, seem to think we are. Currently we are a very longshot to get asked to join the Big Ten. Stanford has much more to offer, IMO.

 

[billga99]

Ya'll are debating second order processes while ignoring the first order process that dominates: ESPN as we know it is dying.

It lost 8 million cable and satellite subscribers last year. Disclosure shenanigans around streaming make the net loss impossible to pin down, but conservative estimates are a net loss of 3 million AND a ~30% loss of revenue on people who migrated from cable to streaming. There's plenty of articles talking about the loss and what it means, but it is very consistent with across the industry losses in cable and satellite and deval
uation of streaming services as the market realizes that streaming isn't as profitable as cable and to the moon optimism on subscriber count gives way to reality.

The cash flush in football is directly attributable to an unprecedented bundling market distortion as ESPN ate its late competitive models. Thing is, the peak of that phenomenon was 10 years ago, and just as nobody made as much money off of bundling all sports everywhere as ESPN no one stands to lose as much money as streaming breaks the monopolies and therefore the bundlers. Moreover, CFB just isn't a champion content source for ESPN. As revenue decline squeezes the price of media rights, CFB lacks both the numbers and the sustained enthusiasm of the markets for the NFL or NBA and it's fractured into conferences instead of wrapped up in culturally and legally well aligned leagues.

The conferences are expanding not because they are terrified of the next negotiation and want to protect their income. They will fail. They are attempting to form a cartel in a shrinking market, and that is never a stable economic arrangement without things like assassinations and theft that the SEC has only limited access to.

The truth is, as access to cash from people who want to buy NFL games disappears, the price of a team's media is going to revert towards the equilibrium price of the number of eyeballs that team brings to the table. In that environment, there's no particular premium in selling your media rights to an ESPN vs. selling your games directly yourself.

The "superconference" will last maybe 10 years at the longest as ESPN's subscriber base collapses. Then they have to actually sell a media product to consumers that intend to consume it. That means all the reasons this thread has well identified that the new superconference is a bad game to watch will drag down revenue for the conference. Competition will break out for watching experience like it has for stadium experience. No op empty suit executives will be fired, idiot announcers will be removed and individual team tailored media will dominate. Heck, even advertising revenue will decline as giant ad buy bundling becomes impossible and your local team's game may well have ads from local businesses.

Not dealing with that reality is like arguing over which car is gonna win a race because they have a better spoiler.

I know all this. And I’m not making bolstering statements on the internet. I know it’s complicated. I’m simply saying there is zero chance the GOR holds the ACC together until 2036. None. The GOR was created by people due to a monetary incentive. These same people will undo the GOR once given another monetary incentive. That’s how everything in the world works.

You keep bringing up minor details like media rights and coaches shows, etc. We all get that these are part of the GOR as of today. But the GOR won’t exist in its current form once the shuffle gets to ACC teams. And the shuffle will come to the ACC well before 2036. It’s only 2022. I have no inside info but the past tells us what the future holds. The SEC getting Texas/OU was complicated yet they got it done in silence. The BIG taking California was complicated but done in silence. Right now, I have no doubt that a lot of things are happening in silence. With Phillips ties to the BIG I wouldn’t be shocked if he helps in the ending of the GOR and ends up with a cushy BIG job once UNC and others end up there with others going to SEC.

I know all this. And I’m not making bolstering statements on the internet. I know it’s complicated. I’m simply saying there is zero chance the GOR holds the ACC together until 2036. None. The GOR was created by people due to a monetary incentive. These same people will undo the GOR once given another monetary incentive. That’s how everything in the world works.

You keep bringing up minor details like media rights and coaches shows, etc. We all get that these are part of the GOR as of today. But the GOR won’t exist in its current form once the shuffle gets to ACC teams. And the shuffle will come to the ACC well before 2036. It’s only 2022. I have no inside info but the past tells us what the future holds. The SEC getting Texas/OU was complicated yet they got it done in silence. The BIG taking California was complicated but done in silence. Right now, I have no doubt that a lot of things are happening in silence. With Phillips ties to the BIG I wouldn’t be shocked if he helps in the ending of the GOR and ends up with a cushy BIG job once UNC and others end up there with others going to SEC.

the biggest issue is the ACC GOR ends 11 years later than any other Power 5 conference...all the others end between 2023 and 2025. That puts all of the ACC schools at a big disadvantage in terms of leaving. That means schools are more likely looking more towards the end of this decade. The only way it occurs earlier is if 7 teams agree to break it...if that us the right number. I see Miami, FSU, Clemson as wanted to do it for sure. Then the maybes UNC, UVA, GT. The other outlier could be BC. Decent size market and natural rival of ND if they move to BIG 10.

 

[CuseJacket]

Just curious...all of this makes me feel already like supporting GT football any longer is a dead end. There is no statement coming out from the school's leadership which indicates a desire or commitment to continue to compete at a national level. Just...dead silence. It sounds to me like @RamblinRed was spot on and the Administration really could care less about all this.

Is anyone else as depressed about all this as I am?

How many ACC schools have made a statement? Honest question. Been mostly unplugged for the last few days.

At this point, it strikes me that operating covertly is the right move... just like USC and UCLA as well as Texas and Oklahoma.

For ACC schools looking for greener pastures, it's probably more important to operate silently if we truly need a near consensus of ACC departures to blow up the GOR.

 

[forensicbuzz]

You’re right... it will happen before 2036. Probably 3-4 years prior, just like the TX/ OU and USC/UCLA deals did.
I can see deals getting done to tie up teams and markets soon, with full membership happening in the early 2030’s when the value of GOR is a little better quantifiable to handle payouts.
It’s interesting right now because the BIG is trying to renegotiate their deal. They’d like to have teams in their pockets for that discussion, probably so they can negotiate automatic bumps as they come into the conference.
I’m hoping that’s the case. However, I am thinking the BIG is going to negotiate such that they have another bite at the apple in the mid 2030s when ACC and SEC are all in the midst of reshuffling.

I don't think a deal the B1G will sign will go out beyond 2036 (probably an 8-10 year rights deal), so that would coincide with about the time teams would be approached before the expiration of the GoR. However, like others, I don't expect the current ACC to last until 2036. I could also see the B1G and/or the SEC making the long play and forgoing the media rights for a prescribed number of years to ensure they get the teams they want. I could especially see this for the SEC where ESPN is the broadcasting partner for both conferences.

 

[bobongo]

Is this the thing that could save the ACC (and everybody in it)? Making the case for ND in the ACC, which would ensure there are three power conferences instead of two:

Is ACC Membership Better For Notre Dame Football Than B1G Mega-Conference? // UHND.com

Let’s start with the preface that when talking about Notre Dame football independence, one currently discusses the level of independence and not absolute

www.uhnd.com

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[CuseJacket]

First user is followed by Sugiura, fwiw. Last one has 125k followers (media & news company). Note: nothing official.

 

[iceeater1969]

I don't think a deal the B1G will sign will go out beyond 2036 (probably an 8-10 year rights deal), so that would coincide with about the time teams would be approached before the expiration of the contract. However, like others, I don't expect the current ACC to last until 2036. I could also see the B1G and/or the SEC making the long play and forgoing the media rights for a prescribed number of years to ensure they get the teams they want. I could especially see this for the SEC where ESPN is the broadcasting partner for both conferences.

ACC group of teams said we want $$ from tv organization = $$ deal valid till mid 2030's .

What if Acc fails to deliver all teams as promised?

MEGA Default lawsuits are messy and take years before $$ flows.

This should be negotiated.

 

[Golden Tornadoes]

First user is followed by Sugiura, fwiw. Last one has 125k followers (media & news company). Note: nothing official.

I swear, if there really is smoke to this fire and we say no again, I’m going to lose my freaking mind. This might just be the second chance we honestly don’t even deserve. Even Kelly Quinlan is reporting on this.

PLEASE DON’T SCREW THIS UP AGAIN!!!!!!!

 

[forensicbuzz]

Personally, I would prefer B1G to SEC. Fans are better. A ton of away games would be within 5 hours of my house (WI, IA, NW, IL, P, MI ST, MI, IU). tOSU is 6 hours.