Conference Realignment

[Augusta_Jacket]

Our defense did nothing all year to deserve anything but being called out for being a very bad defense. Proof = the Head Coach fired the entire defensive coaching staff after the season ended.

Don't worry, I already had you included in the 75%.

 

[Root4GT]

Don't worry, I already had you included in the 75%.

So you don't think it's realistic if our TV revenue drops to $8M per year all our sports programs will suffer greatly? Can you explain why that is not a likely scenario?

I have my doubts you actually can but I would love to hear your thoughts on how a lower division, basically FCS level, will be successful in Atlanta while surrounded with Big Time college football and basketball within a couple of hours in every direction not to mention Pro teams in the same City?

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

So you don't think it's realistic if our TV revenue drops to $8M per year all our sports programs will suffer greatly? Can you explain why that is not a likely scenario?

I have my doubts you actually can but I would love to hear your thoughts on how a lower division, basically FCS level, will be successful in Atlanta while surrounded with Big Time college football and basketball within a couple of hours in every direction not to mention Pro teams in the same City?

Like I said, I had you included in the 75% that had nothing good to say about our defense last year. I am uncertain how you are extrapolating anything further from that.

 

[CEB]

If espn declines the 2027 option then I belueve there’s a good chance that the Acc follows a similar path to demise as the Pac10 did, crapy contracts will be offered and nobody will be able to agree on accepting a new one

So you don't think it's realistic if our TV revenue drops to $8M per year all our sports programs will suffer greatly? Can you explain why that is not a likely scenario?

I have my doubts you actually can but I would love to hear your thoughts on how a lower division, basically FCS level, will be successful in Atlanta while surrounded with Big Time college football and basketball within a couple of hours in every direction not to mention Pro teams in the same City?

Same answer to both questions. ACC will not go the way of PAC, nor will it become FCS level, or even current “G5” level.

When it all goes down (regardless of whether the 2027 option is the reckoning or the approaching 2036 termination starts the shake up), we will see 4 teams, possibly 6 IN TOTAL leave for BIG / SEC. Barring complete mismanagement idiocy (and with the benefit of the cautionary tale that is the PAC 12, I can’t see even the ACC going full retard here), there are going to be at least 12 schools plus Notre Dame aligned in the effort to strike an ACC media deal.
No, it won’t be BIG money.
No, it won’t be SEC money.
No, it won’t be G5 or FCS money either.
It will probably look a lot like B12 money (keep in mind B12 will renegotiate before ACC, so pay attention to what they get… it’s coming to an ACC near you).

 

[Dman374]

Crazy thought here on 10k ft view of conferences. I've made my point known TV execs and the entertainment industry are running the sport, not the commissioners. I'm not so certain to just write off the BIG 12 into a poverty level conference (long term). Brett Yormark comes from the entertainment industry. College sports, much more football, then basketball, then baseball, are entertainment products. What he did when he took over that conference should be given some props. Cutting in line of the PAC 12 could've been coordinated, but he got the best deal for the conference that was considered left for dead. He poached the quality mid tier PAC 12 schools, and our AD is left with the leftovers. Now, regardless of then, now, or in the future what's gong to balance the sport is recruiting. If the Florida/California/Texas/Georgia schools keeping kids in state that will bring more "competitive balance" than expanding the playoffs. At the end of the day there's only a handful of programs acquiring talent (portal/high school) at an elite level to actually win a national title.

On to my point, as of today I the top teams in the BIG 12 aren't on par with the top end teams in the ACC. Not even close and especially from a roster talent prospective. If you rank top to bottom, our top wipes the floor with the top end of that conference, key word today. But who's to say Texas Tech, UCF, TCU, Houston, Arizona, Arizona State actually starts acquitting talent from (high school or portal) at a higher and higher level. Who's to say 5 or 6 years down the road a legitimate power team or teams starts to emerge to take the Texas/OU void in that conference? For the next two years they're guaranteed a playoff spot. Who's to say a team in that conference not named TCU actually capitalizes on this and starts acquiring high school talent at a top 10 level? By making a shorter deal, and cutting everyone in line for renegotiating the TV deal, Brett Yormark did something truly brilliant, and it's one of the reasons you have an entertainment executive run your conference, and not a former athletic director.

As of today, Feb 21st, 2024, the top end of the ACC is much better than that conference. I'm going to use this as a reference, there are other sites to compare total team composite and I know this ranking will change, but for an example I'll use 247sports 2023 college team composite ranks. We have four teams with a top 20 talent composite (Clemson//Miami/North Carolina/Florida State). Is that subject to change, yes, but none of those teams are dropping out of the top 30, so just roll with it for this example. I don't think there is a single true national title contender in the ACC at this time. Playoff run, yes, but none of those teams have Ohio State (I think they're winning it all this year) or Mutts roster yet. Most of the smack talk about any conference tends to be what the top programs are doing. My question is... could it be possible a BIG 12 team emerges from that left for dead conference with a roster capable of winning a natty? As of today, no, but who knows 5-6 years down the road. And if that happens I'm not so certain this "power 2" thing could still be a thing. I might be insane for thinking that, but I don't think that's a hot take. It only takes one or two years of a a national champion not in those conferences to start to change the narrative. I'm old enough to remember the pre SEC run, and what the perception of that conference was before Urban and Saban got there.

Where is the ACC is 5-6 years? If, for the sake of argument, all the current teams are still in the ACC 5 years from now, are any of them acquiring talent at a level to win a natty? Can an ACC team win a national title in the next 5-6 years? Who legitimately has a shot? Clemson? Florida State? Miami? Louisville? North Carolina? Georgia Tech (2029 National Champs Baby!)? I'll leave that as an open ended question, but if the ACC doesn't win a title in the next 5-6 years, what's the gap between us and the BIG12 5-6 years down the road? Will any other conference other than SEC/BIG 10 win a title in the next 5-6 years?

Jim Phillips isn't the guy to negotiate anything with a television executive, and I've laid out my point that ESPN holds all the cards for this conference. Need to poach Yormark, or find an entertainment/TV executive to lead this conference. People like Nick Dawson will dog walk a former athletic director, in any negotiation, and ultimately decide if this conference will exists 5-6 years down the road. Our athletic director needs to start building relationships with TV executives, and wouldn't hurt to add a staff member on our athletic department from the entertainment industry to start fostering those relationships. Try to be proactive while we still can.

 

[CEB]

Georgia Tech (2029 National Champs Baby!)

Our athletic director needs to start building relationships with TV executives, and wouldn't hurt to add a staff member on our athletic department from the entertainment industry to start fostering those relationships. Try to be proactive while we still can.

Just wanted to point out what I think are two really smart points.

 

[Root4GT]

Like I said, I had you included in the 75% that had nothing good to say about our defense last year. I am uncertain how you are extrapolating anything further from that.

Oops, I had just read a post saying they couldn’t wait until the split in college football into two tiers. My error and my apology.

And back to Defense after our being bad for the better part of 15 years, yea I am in a show me place before I have anything but hope they get better.

No why do you think we will see significant improvement with our defense this season?

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Oops, I had just read a post saying they couldn’t wait until the split in college football into two tiers. My error and my apology.

And back to Defense after our being bad for the better part of 15 years, yea I am in a show me place before I have anything but hope they get better.

No why do you think we will see significant improvement with our defense this season?

I don't know that I "expect" significant improvement on the defense. I "think" that it's entirely possible the new coaching staff can make improvements based off their success at previous stints and what I consider to be adequate talent to work with, but that's yet to be seen.

 

[UgaBlows]

Same answer to both questions. ACC will not go the way of PAC, nor will it become FCS level, or even current “G5” level.

When it all goes down (regardless of whether the 2027 option is the reckoning or the approaching 2036 termination starts the shake up), we will see 4 teams, possibly 6 IN TOTAL leave for BIG / SEC. Barring complete mismanagement idiocy (and with the benefit of the cautionary tale that is the PAC 12, I can’t see even the ACC going full retard here), there are going to be at least 12 schools plus Notre Dame aligned in the effort to strike an ACC media deal.
No, it won’t be BIG money.
No, it won’t be SEC money.
No, it won’t be G5 or FCS money either.
It will probably look a lot like B12 money (keep in mind B12 will renegotiate before ACC, so pay attention to what they get… it’s coming to an ACC near you).

There are probably 8 ACC programs that think they have a chance of going to the BIG or SEC, no way are they going to vote yes on a new lower money tv deal. They will probably sabotage the process in every way imaginable. So yes there is a very real possibility that negotiations will turn into a sh!tshow just like the pac or worse. It depends on what kind of vote is required to pass something like that i guess.

 

[Techwood Relict]

True, but nobody here… well at least not openly… postures as a professional forum poster.

 

[CEB]

There are probably 8 ACC programs that think they have a chance of going to the BIG or SEC, no way are they going to vote yes on a new lower money tv deal. They will probably sabotage the process in every way imaginable. So yes there is a very real possibility that negotiations will turn into a sh!tshow just like the pac or worse. It depends on what kind of vote is required to pass something like that i guess.

The BIG and SEC are most likely going to be renegotiating media deals 3 to 4 years prior to the ACC. There may be eight ACC teams that think they have a shot right now, but I suspect four of them will know they have a new home and four of them will know they’re staying in the ACC before ACC media negotiations really kick up.
If by chance the ESPN option is what FSU claims, and ESPN elects not to continue with the ACC, then all bets are off. However, I believe that is a nuke button that will not be pushed.

 

[slugboy]

Oops, I had just read a post saying they couldn’t wait until the split in college football into two tiers. My error and my apology.

And back to Defense after our being bad for the better part of 15 years, yea I am in a show me place before I have anything but hope they get better.

No why do you think we will see significant improvement with our defense this season?

The last time I saw good defense on the Flats, it was 2006-2008ish, and it was exciting and opinionated. We had an aggressive playing style, and players wanted to play in it.

You didn’t ask me but—do I EXPECT a defensive miracle seismic shift in one season? No.
Would I be shocked to see a massive improvement? Also no.

I expect small improvements where we’re respectable, and then we get better players, and then we get to be good. I’d love it if that’s the floor for our performance, and we’re good out of the gate. If our defense improved as much as our offense did, I’ll be very happy

 

[forensicbuzz]

Jim Phillips isn't the guy to negotiate anything with a television executive, and I've laid out my point that ESPN holds all the cards for this conference.

You have no idea who Jim Phillips is and isn't.

 

[Dman374]

You have no idea who Jim Phillips is and isn't.

I know he's a guy who took third tier leftovers of the PAC 12 because he wasn't proactive enough to go after the larger teams when he had the chance. I'd put money our boy Nick at ESPN called him to discuss this first, and not the other way around. I know he's not from the entertainment or professional sports industry. I know he doesn't wake up in the morning, have a nice cup of coffee, maybe a bagel, and make calls to strike deals trying to poach large name schools in the interest of increasing the value of the conference. He's the guy I want leading a school athletic department in the classical sense, at a school like Northwestern where he came from that has proper expectations of student athlete. Networks run the show, and that's not his background, and it shows in the actions over his tenure.

I'll bet my life savings Notre Dame will join the BIG 10 before they ever join the ACC in football. Former MLB chief operating officer and CBS executive Tony Petitti I'm sure is trying to bring them in the fold. Just give it time. Their AD by the way is a former NBC executive, so they might stay put, but that's the kind of experience you need in that role, which is my point. Networks run the show, football is an entertainment product.
Former NFL exec, and current NFL exec Kevin Warren was aggressive and got USC and UCLA into the BIG10. By the way, Look at the background of these commissioners that are being proactive. They're from major league sports or the entertainment industry, not former college AD's.

So I'll rephrase, I don't know him personally, but I know he's not the type of background to be qualified to be a modern conference commissioner. We need someone with entertainment value and experience, not the former Athletic Director of Northern Illinois and Northwestern leading the conference.

I love J Batt, he's a fundraising machine, and got to give him credit where credit is due, but he's not the man I want negotiating television contract. I would say the same thing if he was somehow the ACC commissioner. My criticism of Jim Phillips is more he's not the right man to lead a conference in the modern era.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

George Kliavkov worked for NBC Universal and HULU before taking the reigns as Pc-12 commissioner. The Pac-12 didn't benefit from that expertise. Sankey and Warren of the SEC/B1G are athletics guys all the way back. Their conferences are booming. Background in the entertainment industry does not necessarily correlate to success as a commissioner of a major athletic conference.

 

[Root4GT]

I don't know that I "expect" significant improvement on the defense. I "think" that it's entirely possible the new coaching staff can make improvements based off their success at previous stints and what I consider to be adequate talent to work with, but that's yet to be seen.

Fair, I consider that “hope”. I have less faith in our defensive talent level than you, however, better coaches can get players to be much more productive. Hopefully the new defensive staff can get better production. I think our defense determines how well our team plays next season baring major injuries. I feel good about the offense based on last season and who we have returning.

 

[Dman374]

George Kliavkov worked for NBC Universal and HULU before taking the reigns as Pc-12 commissioner. The Pac-12 didn't benefit from that expertise. Sankey and Warren of the SEC/B1G are athletics guys all the way back. Their conferences are booming. Background in the entertainment industry does not necessarily correlate to success as a commissioner of a major athletic conference.

I would agree with that. To be honest, I was quite shocked they couldn't get a deal done when they had the upper hand on the BIG 12. I wonder if it was a negotiating tactic, not sure, but part of the demise in my opinion was Brett Yormark pulling that upset move to strike a deal so quickly and undercut Kliavkov. From what I gather Kliavkov was offered a higher number and turned it down before Yorkmark pulled that move. Would be a great video series if they would ever talk about what happened on camera. Going back and looking at the "reported" history of that situation, had the BIG 12 not hired Brett Yormark I think we're having a completely different conversation about conference realignment. That's an interesting what if to think about. I do agree with you it's not everything, but I think you can see my point it might have been the other TV exec understood the market and acted quickly to take advantage of the situation.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Jim Phillips is the guy ensuring his next job will be in the BIG.

 

[stinger 1957]

Any of the big tv drawers leave the ACC, ESPN is going to take their out that is available to them. They're not going to keep a bad income deal if they do not have to. That is just common sense business on their part.
My biggest hope is that the SEC and Big ten commissioners in their collaboration get together and work out who they want and who will go where if they have a choice (ala UNC) working behind the scenes with the schools they each have interest in until an understanding is made between the conferences and the schools that will end up in each of their respective conferences. Then the Big 12 is brought in and they make deals with those they want out of the ones that are left. From here not sure what happens to whatever is leftover.
I would hope something of this nature takes place, do I think it happens this way, I have no idea, it just makes sense that this is the way that gets us on through this process the quickest with the least pain if only because it would all be done behind the scenes and then announced to the public. What ever comes out of this working it out behind the scenes is more than likely how most of it would shake out in a long drawn out PAC 12 type process anyway, it would just be painful for all IMO. Hell, just watching the PAC 12 crash was painful for me and I did not have any skin in their game.

Something like UF leaving the SEC and going to BIG 10 (not saying that happens) would start the drawn out pain process and it would not be fun for anyone, including the SEC folk. It seems to me that in order for this to work out, the SEC and Big 10 would need to have at least nine schools they would take between the two conferences. Probably means Big 10 takes many more schools than the SEC, so I'm guessing it would mean Stanford and/or CAL also for the Big 10. It does appear that those two schools could possibly have some bigtime problems coming up outside their sports programs, we'll see.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I know he's a guy who took third tier leftovers of the PAC 12 because he wasn't proactive enough to go after the larger teams when he had the chance. I'd put money our boy Nick at ESPN called him to discuss this first, and not the other way around. I know he's not from the entertainment or professional sports industry. I know he doesn't wake up in the morning, have a nice cup of coffee, maybe a bagel, and make calls to strike deals trying to poach large name schools in the interest of increasing the value of the conference. He's the guy I want leading a school athletic department in the classical sense, at a school like Northwestern where he came from that has proper expectations of student athlete. Networks run the show, and that's not his background, and it shows in the actions over his tenure.

I'll bet my life savings Notre Dame will join the BIG 10 before they ever join the ACC in football. Former MLB chief operating officer and CBS executive Tony Petitti I'm sure is trying to bring them in the fold. Just give it time. Their AD by the way is a former NBC executive, so they might stay put, but that's the kind of experience you need in that role, which is my point. Networks run the show, football is an entertainment product.
Former NFL exec, and current NFL exec Kevin Warren was aggressive and got USC and UCLA into the BIG10. By the way, Look at the background of these commissioners that are being proactive. They're from major league sports or the entertainment industry, not former college AD's.

So I'll rephrase, I don't know him personally, but I know he's not the type of background to be qualified to be a modern conference commissioner. We need someone with entertainment value and experience, not the former Athletic Director of Northern Illinois and Northwestern leading the conference.

I love J Batt, he's a fundraising machine, and got to give him credit where credit is due, but he's not the man I want negotiating television contract. I would say the same thing if he was somehow the ACC commissioner. My criticism of Jim Phillips is more he's not the right man to lead a conference in the modern era.

I don't know if Jim is or isn't the right guy. He might not be. He 100% believes in the student-athletes and that they are successful being that. I'm not sure that fits in today's CFB, but he's also pretty damn shrewd and an apt negotiator. Unlike Sankey, he doesn't go outside the system to make things happen; he works from within the system and is a consensus builder. In this new wild, wild west where you have to get into the mud and wrestle with the pig, he might not be the right guy. But, I wouldn't bet against him. Again, he's shrewd and has ties throughout the SEC and B1G, as well as ND. He was an AAD at Tennessee and ND before going to NIU and then NU. He's the guy who navigated the first attempt at football player unionizing talks. He works behind the scenes, so time will tell whether he is successful or not. I agree that TV is going to drive this now, so those types of relationships will be very valuable.