Conference Realignment

[orientalnc]

If you get enough teams out West, would make sense to split into divisions to let them play each other on a regular basis. Split into 3 divisions and Top 2 Ranked Division Winners play each other. Assuming FSU, Clemson, UNC and Miami depart.
West - Stanford, Cal, SMU, AZ, ASU, Colorado or Utah (6 teams). could add both to make 7 teams
North - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, VA, VT (6 teams). could add WV to make 7 teams.
South - GT, NC St, WF, Duke, VA, VT (6 teams). Could add UCF to make 7 teams.

If you had 7 teams in each division, 6 games would be in division and 2 would float. Or maybe go to 9 conference games and have 3 float. A couple of issues/questions. Would be back to playing many schools very infrequently. Even with 3 floating, takes 5 years to hit every school. With 2 floating, takes 7 years. Second is what does this alignment become worth in TV dollars. If you had 21 teams total, basketball would play each team once.

If you merged ACC and Big 12, would have ~30 schools. Could divide into 2 conference with 2 divisions each. Again only makes sense if you can keep TV dollars equal or better than today. I don't see that happening with ESPN and CW and whatever mix you throw in covering Big 12.

Bottom line is I think by the end of this decade, there will be dramatic changes to the landscape. What speeds this up is Big Ten and SEC bolting to form their own league seperate from the NCAA. I think they would help pay money to pick off a few big name schools from the ACC and maybe Big 12 and likely Notre Dame.

This post is interesting only as an exercise in thinking about highly unlikely scenarios.

To begin, the ACC is not likely to fall apart. Remember, we have a GOR in place. Nor is it likely the B12 is going to implode. They have 18 teams and a new TV contract. And, a GOR much like ours. While it isn't a threat to the SEC, the B12 is solid. Finally, 21 teams split into three divisions in your example would be a scheduling nightmare. Not to mention trying to have a playoff without one of the division champs.

More likely is that the ACC and B12 settle in to being what they essentially are now - the number 3 and 4 conferences. There will occasionally be a breakout team that threatens the P2 powers, but not often. I am assuming Clemson hangs around and continues to be what they have been for quite a while. UNC and Miami are not going to jump ship before 2036. If then.

 

[ThatGuy]

I am going to punch holes in the TV rankings I posted yesterday.

First, Nielson does not rate games on the SEC Network, ACC network, CBS Sports Network, PAC-12 Network, ESPN+ and Peacock. Second, Vandy only had one game that was not on the SEC Network (against Alabama with 2.46 million viewers), so their raking is not actually Vandy's, but Bama's for that game.

Others have posted some very good counter points to this, but one thing is clear. You ratings for each game are impacted to large extent by the time slot and Network where your games are played. And the selection of games that were Nielson rated. Bowl games and CFP were not included.

There was discussion earlier about Missouri. They only had six of their games included in the Nielson ratings: Memphis 730 PM on ESPNU(181K), LSU Noon on ESPN (2.34M), uga 330 PM on CBS (7.00M); Tennessee 330 PM on CBS (3.62M); Florida 730 on ESPN (2.27M); Arkansas Fri 400 PM on CBS (4.09M). Their not-Nielson rated games were South Dakota, Middle Tenn, Kansas St, Vandy, Kentucky, & S Carolina. Clearly, time and network mean a ton toward your TV viewership numbers. And, who decides the network and time slot for each game? ESPN. Who benefits most from those ratings? ESPN. My question is about whether Missouri football is really a lot more popular than GT football, or is Missouri getting more favorable TV slots because they are in the SEC?

To sum it up...

 

[UgaBlows]

You could make an argument for Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Kansas. All are AAU member schools and would add more depth to the western half of the conference.

That’s about as likely as FSU winning their lawsuit and leaving for the SEC this offseason, those big12 schools are locked into their own contract and GOR. I think the ACC would probably look at some G5’s like South FL and Tulane.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

That’s about as likely as FSU winning their lawsuit and leaving for the SEC this offseason, those big12 schools are locked into their own contract and GOR. I think the ACC would probably look at some G5’s like South FL and Tulane.

My post was an answer to speculation regarding this post. It had nothing to do with being likely.

There’s a lot here… two things I will touch on:
1. I’m generally in agreement with you about GT being more valuable than many think. Probably not a surprise to find someone equally bullish on GT on a GT message board, but I do think we have a better shot at BIG than most.
2. I’m not buying the exodus to the B12. Also, like Thornton Mellon’s final exam, my second point has 27 parts…
- Big 12 deal expires before ACC deal. (2031 vs 2036). I think there’s a real possibilty that you could see movement away from B12 at that time instead of toward it. If the ACC is smart, that’s a pitch I would be making to some select B12 members.
- the B12 negotiation taking place in 2030 +/- should be a real good indicator of how these conference media deals are going to go. If the SEC and BIG get more money while the B12 sees a flat or even a decreased deal, then we can see that the media push to a P2 is indisputable.
- I don’t imagine the B12 gets a big enough bump to make any ACC team pony up cash to buy out early, so it will be interesting to see if the B12 successfully carves out another deal that allows them to take a number of new members at full shares. That’s how the PAC schools landed there. If the B12 gets a bump and a guarantee to honor full shares for new members, the ACC negotiation is gonna get hairy.
- wonder what allegiance the remaining ACC schools would have to one another in negotiations. How many would scramble to a B12 spot after the initial offer? How many wouldn’t wait for the initial offer?
- my gut says that the B12 negotiations in 2030 look very similar to the money ACC teams get through 2036 and there isn’t any ACC to B12 movement.
- gut also says four teams, max, depart to BIG / SEC, so the ACC still has a big stable of programs.
- more likely than ACC to B12 movement, I think the ACC could play its cards right and steal some B12 teams during that negotiation time of 2029-2031… will they?

 

[CEB]

That’s about as likely as FSU winning their lawsuit and leaving for the SEC this offseason, those big12 schools are locked into their own contract and GOR. I think the ACC would probably look at some G5’s like South FL and Tulane.

Admittedly, I don’t know anything about the B12 GOR. However, their current media deal ends four years before the ACC. The speculation is based on what could happen when the big 12 goes back to the negotiating table in 2030.

 

[CEB]

This post is interesting only as an exercise in thinking about highly unlikely scenarios.

 

[UgaBlows]

We very likely will not be in the SP2, the Semi-Pro 2 league. We will most likely remain in a college football conference - the ACC. If the ACC somehow loses 4 teams (F$U, CU, UNC, and UVA), we will still have BC, Cuse, L’ville, Pitt, VPI, NCSU, DU, WFU, GT, Miami, SMU, Cal, and Stanford. That’s a great college football conference. The world will not end.

I still don’t get how UVA is such a lock to go SEC, they have horrible TV ratings, game attendance is bad, culture doesn’t match, and historically they have had very little success. VT seems like a more natural fit for the SEC.

 

[Techster]

While our Athletics related debt is the 5th highest (~278M) out of the 53 universities that report numbers in the Big 5 conferences, that doesn't really tell the whole story. We rank 17th when it comes to total paid for debt service/leases/rental fees. The athletics related debt doesn't reflect endowments or other commitments that we use to pay down that debt, nor the structure of that debt.

If you look at the ratio of our debt service, leases and rental fees paid to the overall debt, we actually have the 11th BEST ratio of those 53 teams. ~$13M / ~$278 = 4.7%. This tells me that we've done a few things well: structured our debt over time to match our finances, managed capital fundraising well to be able to handle those debt payments, and managed our endowment (Tech Foundation) in such a way that we have a good backstop.

I know after COVID we had some issues, but it feels like we're in a much better spot than "we have one of the highest debt levels in major college sports".

Those are interesting numbers. Where are you finding those numbers for GT and other schools?

 

[UgaBlows]

Admittedly, I don’t know anything about the B12 GOR. However, their current media deal ends four years before the ACC. The speculation is based on what could happen when the big 12 goes back to the negotiating table in 2030.

Ignoring all that, what would be the point from their perspective of a basically lateral conference change with WAy more travel?

 

[RamblinRed]

Thought this was an interesting article on B12 recruiting this year.
Only one school in the Top 40 nationally in HS recruiting.
That does jump to 5 when you add transfers to the mix.

National Signing Day: Big 12 poised to finish outside top 20 in recruiting rankings amid Texas, Oklahoma exits

It marks the first time in the 247Sports era that the league has been shut out of the top 20

www.cbssports.com

I thought the end of the article was a nice spin for them (Basically that the new B12 is going to be Coastal Choas and that is a good thing).

"But National Signing Day underscored what makes the new-look Big 12 different and potentially more interesting than its peers. It's not a conference of flashy recruiting buzz in which an exclusive circle of booster-backed kingdoms try to keep the masses at bay by throwing seven-figure NIL deals at five-star high school prospects.

Rather, it's a relatively level playing field of schools in which coaching, culture and continuity are going to have an outsized impact. It's different than the rest of big-time college football, and that could prove to be an asset, even if it means signing day is a bit sleepy."

 

[CEB]

Ignoring all that, what would be the point from their perspective of a basically lateral conference change with WAy more travel?

Precisely. And I said it in response to a post that said all of the ACC schools would be jumping at the chance to join to b12.
I don’t see either scenario is very likely, but I bet UCF and WVU would jump at the chance to join the ACC before any current ACC members would jump at the big 12. Whether the ACC wants that is another issue altogether.

 

[UgaBlows]

My post was an answer to speculation regarding this post. It had nothing to do with being likely.

Oh ok, well maybe after the SEC and BIG finish gutting the ACC the remainders can all just just merge together with BIG12 into a mega-misfits conference? East and West divisions that play for their own natty?

 

[CEB]

Thought this was an interesting article on B12 recruiting this year.
Only one school in the Top 40 nationally in HS recruiting.
That does jump to 5 when you add transfers to the mix.

National Signing Day: Big 12 poised to finish outside top 20 in recruiting rankings amid Texas, Oklahoma exits

It marks the first time in the 247Sports era that the league has been shut out of the top 20

www.cbssports.com

I thought the end of the article was a nice spin for them (Basically that the new B12 is going to be Coastal Choas and that is a good thing).

"But National Signing Day underscored what makes the new-look Big 12 different and potentially more interesting than its peers. It's not a conference of flashy recruiting buzz in which an exclusive circle of booster-backed kingdoms try to keep the masses at bay by throwing seven-figure NIL deals at five-star high school prospects.

Rather, it's a relatively level playing field of schools in which coaching, culture and continuity are going to have an outsized impact. It's different than the rest of big-time college football, and that could prove to be an asset, even if it means signing day is a bit sleepy."

Now that’s positive spin! ACC take note! We just stood around and allowed all the other children to point and laugh.

 

[Randy Carson]

Oh ok, well maybe after the SEC and BIG finish gutting the ACC the remainders can all just just merge together with BIG12 into a mega-misfits conference? East and West divisions that play for their own natty?

You mean like a Premier League and a Champions League in English football?

Wish I'd thoughta that.

 

[UgaBlows]

Viewership numbers aren't everything. Especially when looked at in a vacuum. The Big 10 didn't add Rutgers, Maryland, or UCLA because of their incredible TV ratings, nor did the SEC add Missouri for that reason. Adding UNC not only raises the profile in several sports, it plants a conference flag in the state with the 9th highest population in the country. It raises the revenue of your conference network in that state. It gains you a strong academic and research university which is valued by at least one of the P2. UNC will have no problem finding a home if things fall apart. Same is probably true for UVA for similar reasons.

GT to the BIG should be a priority for them if they want UNC and UVA for those reasons, add Miami or FSU for a 4 team southern pod. I’m just not sure what UVA adds that they aren't already getting with Maryland?

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Ignoring all that, what would be the point from their perspective of a basically lateral conference change with WAy more travel?

Consider this: The ACC, locked into what seems like a "bad deal" that we signed 8 years ago still makes more money per school than the Big-12 on their contract they inked less than a year and a half ago.

 

[WreckinGT]

GT to the BIG should be a priority for them if they want UNC and UVA for those reasons, add Miami or FSU for a 4 team southern pod. I’m just not sure what UVA adds that they aren't already getting with Maryland?

UVA would add another state to their foot print, a big state school, an AAU member, and a program fairly solid in many sports other than football currently. Just what the Big 10 typically looks for. We have all of that except the big state school part. We are also a candidate though. What I think would be interesting is if the Big 10 just said, screw it, we are going to 24. They decide to add GT, UNC, UVA, Clemson, FSU, and Miami. Word of this gets out ahead of time. What would the SEC do? That would be planting the flag in 5 southern states.

 

[Techster]

There’s a lot here… two things I will touch on:
1. I’m generally in agreement with you about GT being more valuable than many think. Probably not a surprise to find someone equally bullish on GT on a GT message board, but I do think we have a better shot at BIG than most.
2. I’m not buying the exodus to the B12. Also, like Thornton Mellon’s final exam, my second point has 27 parts…
- Big 12 deal expires before ACC deal. (2031 vs 2036). I think there’s a real possibilty that you could see movement away from B12 at that time instead of toward it. If the ACC is smart, that’s a pitch I would be making to some select B12 members.
- the B12 negotiation taking place in 2030 +/- should be a real good indicator of how these conference media deals are going to go. If the SEC and BIG get more money while the B12 sees a flat or even a decreased deal, then we can see that the media push to a P2 is indisputable.
- I don’t imagine the B12 gets a big enough bump to make any ACC team pony up cash to buy out early, so it will be interesting to see if the B12 successfully carves out another deal that allows them to take a number of new members at full shares. That’s how the PAC schools landed there. If the B12 gets a bump and a guarantee to honor full shares for new members, the ACC negotiation is gonna get hairy.
- wonder what allegiance the remaining ACC schools would have to one another in negotiations. How many would scramble to a B12 spot after the initial offer? How many wouldn’t wait for the initial offer?
- my gut says that the B12 negotiations in 2030 look very similar to the money ACC teams get through 2036 and there isn’t any ACC to B12 movement.
- gut also says four teams, max, depart to BIG / SEC, so the ACC still has a big stable of programs.
- more likely than ACC to B12 movement, I think the ACC could play its cards right and steal some B12 teams during that negotiation time of 2029-2031… will they?

After the 2024-2025 season, the Big12 will be working off of a new media contract. At that point, per member school payouts will be roughly equal to the ACC per member payout (I do believe the ACC per member will be higher by $2-5 million/member depending on the year).

Now this is where we need to think about the makeup of the conference and how it impacts the overall value of the conference. There is no way the ACC holds onto UNC and FSU at minimum. They've both said they need to leave to compete nationally...and both schools will be welcomed by the SEC (UNC) or the B1G (UNC and FSU) once the GOR is figured out or expires naturally. There's a high probability UVA is right behind UNC and FSU. That's 3 of the ACC's biggest "brands". Neither ESPN or FOX will pay the ACC the same amount of money without the two biggest brands in the ACC. There's no way the ACC makes up the gap between them and the SEC/B1G by 2036, which is expected to be north of $50 million gap per member school. UNC and FSU is not turning that down...and they'd be stupid to.

Let's say the ACC does raid the Big 12 in 2030...which school does the ACC take to replace the value of UNC or FSU (I believe UVA will be easy to replace with an "equal value" Big 12 school)? None...there are no schools in the Big12 of "equal value" to UNC or FSU that ESPN or FOX will pay at UNC's and FSU's valuation. That means the ACC value to the media companies drops. The ACC per member payout will drop significantly...and we already saw it play out with USC and UCLA leaving the PAC 12.

This is where the ACC's GOR ending in 2036 is actually more of a detriment to the ACC than an advantage to the Big 12's contract ending in 2030. Every party (all conferences, media companies, and sports playing universities) knows UNC and FSU (at minimum) are leaving the ACC, which means there's no negotiation power for the ACC. ESPN and FOX are not paying for Oklahoma State/Arizona/UCF/whatever Big12 team to join the ACC knowing that FSU and UNC are leaving in 2036. That would require all members of the ACC in 2030 to extend the GOR past 2036 (we all know that is NOT happening) because once UNC and FSU leaves, the value of the ACC as a conference drops regardless of who the ACC may bring over from the Big12. Why would any member of the Big 12 leave for the ACC if they know the biggest and most valuable members are leaving? At best, any team from the Big 12 moving to the ACC would receive equal revenue...and that's being generous. Why would a team from the Big 12 want to move to ACC knowing our conference leadership is poor? Even if the Big 12 media value drops in 2030, what does that mean for the ACC knowing that UNC and FSU, at minimum, are leaving the ACC?

Oh, this all assumes ESPN and FOX actually want to plow more money into the ACC and Big 12 at the end of the 2036 road, especially given how both media companies will already "hold" the vast majority of the most popular brands in their portfolio with the B1G and SEC. ESPN and FOX letting the PAC 12 die is a dire warning that nothing is given anymore. Just because your school wants to play sports doesn't mean there's a media company willing to finance like they once did.

 

[Techster]

Consider this: The ACC, locked into what seems like a "bad deal" that we signed 8 years ago still makes more money per school than the Big-12 on their contract they inked less than a year and a half ago.

The gap closes considerably at the end of the 2024-2025 season. The ACC will still be ahead, but it won't be that big. Big12 is still working off the contract that Texas and OU are/were part of.

 

[RonJohn]

The gap closes considerably at the end of the 2024-2025 season. The ACC will still be ahead, but not it won't be that big. Big12 is still working off the contract that Texas and OU are/were part of.

I can't speak for @Augusta_Jacket , but I believe he was responding to people who are saying that ACC teams will flock to the Big12. I have many doubts that any team will leave the ACC to make less money in the Big12. I doubt it even more with the GOR issues and with an exit fee from the ACC. Even if the GOR is nullified and the exit fee is reduced to $30 million, what school would pay $30 million to move to a conference with more travel and $2-5 million less in revenue per year? (using your estimates for the difference in revenue.)

All of the prognosticators predicted that the ACC would be the first P5 conference to fall. The PAC12 fell. Now, prognosticators are saying that the ACC is the weakest of the P4 teams, and will be the next to fall. If we ignore the GOR and exit fee issues, the ACC's contract through 2036 is larger than the Big12's. Yet the prognosticators speak as though the ACC is well behind the Big12. The 2024 Big12 won't have any teams left with a real national brand. The only CFP appearance left in the Big12 will be TCU's 2022 appearance. The 2024 ACC will still have FSU, UNC, Miami, Clemson, VT. Maybe FSU will leave in 2025. Maybe UNC will be able to overcome the political issues that have arisen in the last couple of weeks and leave in 2026-28. However, there are still contractual issues involved, and I think it is just as likely that all of the teams stay until at least 2030. There is no measure by which the Big12 is a better conference than the ACC. The ACC isn't at the level of the SEC or Big10, but they are solidly the third conference, no matter what measure you want to use. All of the prognosticators simply ignore that.